Our growing population

The world's population is projected to continue growing for the next 50 to 60 years, peaking at approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080. After reaching this peak, it is expected to gradually decline to around 10.2 billion by the century's end. Currently, one in four people lives in a country where the population has already peaked.

Fertility rates are declining, with women bearing, on average, one child less fewer than in 1990, resulting in a global fertility rate of 2.3 live births per woman as of 2024. Life expectancy is on the rise again after the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 73.3 years in 2024, with projections of 77.4 years by 2054. Notably, by 2080, the number of individuals aged 65 and older is expected to surpass that of children under 18, and by the mid-2030s, those aged 80 and over will outnumber infants. Countries facing demographic aging may need to leverage technology to enhance productivity and create lifelong learning opportunities, supporting multigenerational workforces and extending working lives as needed.

Day of Eight Billion

On 15 November 2022, the world’s population reached 8 billion people, a milestone in human development. While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years—until 2037— for it to reach 9 billion, a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing. Yet levels of fertility remain high in some countries. Countries with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. Global population growth has therefore over time become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.

The world in 2100

While there is some uncertainty around the future size of the world’s population, the estimated likelihood that it will peak within the current century is 80 per cent, with the peak likely to occur sometime between the mid-2060s and 2100. The size of world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller – or about 700 million people fewer – than anticipated a decade ago.

The peak in the projected size of the global population is due to several factors including lower-than-expected levels of fertility observed in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China, and slightly faster-than-anticipated fertility declines in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa. China (1.4 billion) and India (1.4 billion) remain the two most populous countries in the world.

Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas through 2054 and in 62 through 2100, including Australia, Canada and the United States of America.

Africa: fastest growing continent

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to see a significant population increase, with projections showing a 79% rise to 2.2 billion by 2054. By the end of the century, the population could reach 3.3 billion, accounting for more than one-fifth of the global increase. Nine countries, including Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Niger, are likely to double in size between 2024 and 2054. As a result, the rankings of the most populous countries may shift, with Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo eventually surpassing the USA, and the United Republic of Tanzania potentially entering the top ten largest countries by the century's end.

Shrinking population in Europe and China

Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for full replacement of the population in the long run (around 2.1 children per woman), and in the majority of cases, fertility has been below the replacement level for several decades.

It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world’s second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million), followed by Japan and the Russian Federation (21 and 10 million, respectively). Due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s.

Factors influencing the population growth

Fertility rates

Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility will take. According to the World Population Prospects (2024 Revision), the global fertility rate stands at 2.25 live births per woman, one child fewer than a generation ago. By the late 2040s, the global fertility rate is projected to decline to 2.1.

Increasing longevity

Globally, life expectancy at birth is expected to rise from 72.8 years in 2019 to 77.2 years in 2050. In 2021, life expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7 years behind the global average.

Global life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054.

International migration

International migration has a limited effect on population change in most countries. However, it is expected to mitigate population decline due to low fertility and aging in some areas. By 2054, immigration will be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries, including Australia, Canada, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States of America. While emigration usually has less impact on population size, it may further reduce numbers in 14 countries with ultra-low fertility.

United Nations role in population issues

The United Nations system has long been involved in addressing these complex and interrelated issues – notably, through the work of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and the UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

UN Population Division

The UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs pulls together information on such issues as international migration and development, urbanization, world population prospects and policies, and marriage and fertility statistics. It supports UN bodies such as the Commission on Population and Development, and supports implementation of the Programme of Action adopted by the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (IPCD).

The Population Division prepares the official United Nations demographic estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world, helps States build capacity to formulate population policies, and enhances coordination of related UN system activities through its participation in the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities.

UN Population Fund

The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) started operations in 1969 to assume a leading role within the UN system in promoting population programmes, based on the human right of individuals and couples to freely determine the size of their families. At the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994), its mandate was fleshed out in greater detail, to give more emphasis to the gender and human rights dimensions of population issues, and UNFPA was given the lead role in helping countries carry out the Conference’s Programme of Action. UNFPA now works in the areas of sexual and reproductive health, human rights and gender equality, population and development and has programmes for youth.

On the issue of population, the United Nations has held three conferences, two special sessions of the General Assembly and a summit in 2019.

World Population Day is observed annually on 11 July. It marks the date, in 1987, when the world’s population hit the 5 billion mark.

Resources

1. Data from the UNFPA Population Data Portale