The World Economic Forecasting Model at the United Nations
The World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) was developed to allow the UN Development Policy Analysis Division to produce consistent forecasts for the global economy for use in its flagship publication, World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) and the WESP Update, and for the forecasts presented at annual meetings of Project LINK. The WEFM evolved from the original Project LINK programme, which started in the 1960s, and linked together individual country macro-models from up to 80 different countries in order to compute a joint global forecast. The WEFM is also used to produce alternative scenarios around the central forecast. Examples include the impact of a resurgence in the euro area debt crisis; a sharp adjustment in global energy prices; a fiscal stimulus coordinated among the largest economies; migration flows in Europe; conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks; and a slowdown in trend productivity growth. The flexible model platform can be adapted to address a wide range of policy questions.
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