Global Economic Monitoring Unit (GEM)

必须紧急采取具体的政策行动，减少全球经济风险，为稳定、可持续的经济增长夯实 基础。动态的、包容性的全球经济对于实现《2030年可持续发展议程》的宏伟目标至 关重要。决策者必须遏制金融脆弱性和贸易争端升级带来的短期风险，推进实现经 济、社会和环境目标的长期发展战略。果断的政策行动，关键是在应对气候变化、可 持续金融、可持续生产与消费、克服不平等等重要领域进行多边、合作、长期的全球决 策。同时还必须推动建立更具包容性、更加灵活、反应更加积极的多边体系。

CO2 emissions expected to reach an historical high in 2018 The low cost of coal relative to alternative energy sources is slowing progress towards energy transition in many regions Phasing out coal use requires a reliable and stable alternative energy supply, plus support to the economic and employment transition in regions dependent on coal production

Global growth may have reached a peak Firms in the United States and Japan are facing capacity constraints Manufacturing activity slows in developed and developing economies

Russian Federation commits to halving poverty by 2024 China turns to pro-growth measures to mitigate the impact of the trade disputes Fiscal pressures creating significant policy challenges in Latin America

High commodity dependence and structural barriers hindering long-term growth prospects of many developing countries; intensifying trade tensions between the major economies poses a significant risk to the global growth outlook; recent financial market turbulence exposes vulnerabilities in several developing economies

Improved economic performance in the global economy increasingly overshadowed by heightened risks and humanitarian concerns; armed conflicts a major impediment to progress on sustainable development; need for a redoubling of policy efforts to support conflict prevention and resolution

Rising levels of public debt fueling fiscal sustainability concerns in many developing countries Several countries highly vulnerable to a sharp increase in government interest burden in the event of a financial shock High debt service obligations limit the availability of resources to pursue development objectives

Global growth expected to reach 3.2 per cent in 2018 and 2019 Key downside risks to the global economy include rising trade tensions, elevated debt and uncertainty over monetary policy adjustments in the developed countries Recent strengthening of economic growth carries environmental costs

Short-term prospects for the world economy have continued to improve, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2018. World gross product is expected to expand by 3.2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019, marking an upward revision from forecasts released in December 2017.