Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 14
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November 2009
Summary:
- According to preliminary UN estimates, the world economy will shrink by 2.2 per cent in 2009.
- There are clear indications that recovery is on its way and global output may increase by 2.4 per cent in 2010, according to the preliminary UN forecast. Recovery is still very fragile, however.
- A key risk is a premature withdrawal of the stimulus measures in major economies, which presently is a key factor driving the incipient recovery. Pursuing further stimulus now while at the same time ensuring a more sustainable and balanced global growth for the future is a main challenge facing policy makers collectively.
After a sharp and synchronized global downturn in 2008 and most of 2009, the world economy is showing signs of improvement. According to preliminary UN estimates, world gross product (WGP) is estimated to register a decline of 2.2 per cent in 2009, even as an increasing number of economies have shown positive output growth since the second quarter of 2009. Premised on the assumption of a continued supportive policy stance worldwide, the preliminary UN forecast projects a mild growth of 2.4 per cent is forecast in the baseline outlook for 2010.
Since March 2009, financial markets worldwide have stabilized while international trade and industrial production in major economies have rebounded, moving the global economy away from the abyss where it stood in the beginning of the year when everything seemed to be in a free fall. Yet, much of the rebound is still very fragile, making prospects of a sustained recovery still highly uncertain.
Download the World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing No. 14
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