Population

Rationale and definition

• Population size can be used as a proxy of a country’s exposure to a variety of economic and environmental shocks
• Measures the de facto population size of a country at the mid-point (1 July) of the year indicated

Methodology

• Derived from population counts in censuses

Data sources

• Regularly reported by United Nations Population Division in its World Population Prospects database

Remoteness

Rationale and definition

• Remoteness inhibits trade and growth by increasing transportation costs and limiting the possibilities for economic diversification
• Defined as a trade-weighted average of a country’s distance from world markets

Methodology

• Calculated as the weighted average distance from the nearest trading partners with a cumulative share in world trade of 50 per cent, with market shares as weights and adjusted for landlockedness
• Note by the CDP Secretariat on measuring remoteness for the identification of LDCs (August 2015)

Data sources

• Calculated by the CDP Secretariat based on data on bilateral distances between the capitals or major cities in the world, obtained from the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII) and world market shares based on exports and imports of goods and services reported annually by the United Nations Statistics Division in its National Accounts Main Aggregates database

Merchandise export concentration

Rationale and definition

• Provides information on the exposure to trade shocks resulting from a concentrated export structure
• Measures the product concentration of a country’s exports

Methodology

• Expressed as a Herfindahl-Hirschman index, that is the square root of the sum of the squared shares of each commodity (at the three-digit SITC product category) in total exports and normalized so that it can vary between 0 and 1 (in case only one good is exported)

Data sources

• Reported regularly by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its UNCTADstat database

Share of agriculture, forestry and fishing in GDP

Rationale and definition

• Provides information on countries’ exposure to shocks caused by their economic structure. Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing are particularly subject to natural and economic shocks
• Defined as the percentage share of the agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing sectors (categories A+B in ISIC Rev. 3.1) in the gross value added of a country

Methodology

• Calculated by dividing the value added of agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing by the total gross value added of all sectors of the economy

Data sources

• Reported annually by the United Nations Statistics Division in its National Accounts Main Aggregates Database

Share of population in low elevated coastal zones

Rationale and definition

• Provides information on countries’ vulnerability to coastal impacts (including sea level rise and storm surges) associated with climate change
• Measures the share of the population in a country that lives in low elevated coastal zones, defined as areas contiguous to the coast below a certain elevation threshold (currently 5 metres)

Methodology

• Calculated by dividing the number of people living in areas contiguous to the coast with an elevation of less than five metres by the total population of the country

Data sources

• Reported by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network at Columbia University

Instability of exports of goods and services

Rationale and definition

• Highly variable export earnings cause fluctuations in production, employment and the availability of foreign exchange, with negative consequences for sustainable economic growth and development
• Defined as the standard deviation of the difference between the value of annual export earnings and its 20-year trend

Methodology

• Calculated by estimating the trend of export earnings by a mixed-trend linear regression and using the standard deviation of the differences between trend and actual values as a measure of instability

Data sources

• Calculated by the CDP secretariat based on data reported annually by the United Nations Statistics Division in its National Accounts Main Aggregates Database

Victims of natural disasters

Rationale and definition

• Provides information on a country’s vulnerability to natural shocks, in particular the human impact of natural disasters associated with these shocks
• Measures the share of the population who are victims of natural disasters, defined as people killed or affected (i.e., requiring immediate food, water, shelter, sanitation or medical assistance)

Methodology

• Calculated by dividing the annual number of victims by the total population of the country over a period of 20 years and then taking the simple average

Data sources

• Calculated by the CDP secretariat on the basis of data on the total population from UNPD in its World Population Prospects database, and data on people killed and on people affected from the Emergency Disasters Database (EM-DAT) of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

Instability of agricultural production

Rationale and definition

• Highly variable agricultural production is indicative of high vulnerability to natural shocks and often reflects the impacts of natural shocks, including droughts and disturbances in rainfall patterns
• Defined as the standard deviation of the difference between agricultural production and its 20-year trend

Methodology

• Calculated by estimating the trend of agricultural production by a mixed-trend linear regression and using the standard deviation of the differences between trend and actual values as a measure of instability

Data sources

• Calculated by the CDP secretariat based on data reported annually by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in its FAOSTAT database