On 17 December 2021, the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) issued a report on “The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on terrorism, counter-terrorism and countering violent extremism,”, thus concluding its analytical series on this issue.
The report follows on from CTED’s June 2021 report, which provided an overview of the potential long-term impacts of the pandemic, as well as key regional and thematic trends, informed by CTED’s ongoing dialogue with Member States (including within the framework of the hybrid assessment visits currently being conducted on behalf of the Counter-Terrorism Committee). The June 2021 report also featured survey data collected from 49 of CTED’s partners from across the United Nations, civil society, academia and the private sector. More than two-thirds of respondents stated that COVID-19 had made counter-terrorism and CVE more challenging.
The December 2021 report concludes the series by summarizing CTED’s analysis to date, noting that the pandemic has exacerbated many pre-existing issues and challenges that shape the terrorist threat landscape. Terrorists and violent extremists have sought to exploit pandemic-related sociocultural restrictions, including their efforts to recruit, radicalize, and organize via virtual platforms. Where pandemic-related restrictions have artificially and temporarily suppressed the threat of terrorism, their easing may result in an increase in terrorist violence.
However, there is limited data on the long-term impacts of recruitment and radicalization efforts, and further research is required to understand any correlation between pandemic-related impacts and increases in terrorist violence. CTED’s analysis also stresses that the pandemic is far from over and that most geographical regions and thematic areas continue to face existing pandemic-related trends. More data and analysis will be required to draw comprehensive conclusions.
Pandemic-related counter-terrorism trends have overlapped across regions. Social restrictions, including closure of civic spaces, has made it hard for civil society organizations (CSOs) and other non-State actors engaged in countering violent extremism (CVE) to conduct programmatic interventions (including gender-related interventions) in communities vulnerable to radicalization to violence. Economic downturns have exacerbated existing grievances, increased humanitarian needs, and simultaneously led to an erosion in trust in Government. Some States have used pandemic-related restrictions to curb dissent and proliferate emergency measures, thereby raising legitimate human rights concerns.
The pandemic has not only exposed social inequities and structural challenges but also provided an avenue for those inequities and challenges to be exploited by terrorists and their affiliates. The report concludes that the counter-terrorism community should seek to address the threats of terrorism and violent extremism in a post-pandemic world based on the principles of cooperation, shared responsibility, and enhanced multilateralism. Existing policies and measures should therefore be adapted in order to ensure an adequate response to evolving challenges. CTED will continue to assess and analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the evolving terrorist threat, counter-terrorism responses, and other emerging issues and challenges, through engagement and consultations with its partners.