Excellencies,Distinguished Delegates,Dear Colleagues,Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is a pleasure to be with you today.
We cannot fulfil the transformative potential of the 2030 Agenda with the old approach.
The Agenda demands foresight, envisioning and planning the future, and new ways of working from all actors, and from all our respective global institutions.
The Department of Economic and Social Affairs has promoted long-run future scenarios of sustainable development since 2010.
We have developed our own global models and created long-run, fully integrated scenarios of climate, land, energy, water, materials, infrastructure, technology systems, and development to 2030 and 2050.
In recognition of the contribution of science and academia, DESA works closely with scientific communities as well, most notably on “The World in 2050” initiative.
So, what would the world look like in 2030 and beyond, if we continue with current trends?
Imagine this world by mid-century!
People are at the heart of sustainable development and will be critical in the realisation of the 2030 Agenda. Any changes in terms of demographics can significantly impact the future.
According to the latest Revision of DESA’s World Population Prospects, global population growth has slowed. Yet, many of the least developed countries continue to experience rapid population growth.
Over the next few decades, growth in population is projected to be fastest in countries that face the greatest challenges for ending poverty and hunger and ensuring access to healthcare, education and decent work for all.
The 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects, also produced by UN DESA, projects that most of the increase in global population will be reflected in the growth of urban areas.
So, we will be living in an increasingly crowded urban world.
Some 9 billion people will live on Earth in 2050, with 70 per cent of them in urban areas. This means an additional 2.8 billion people in cities, and 600 million fewer people in rural areas. This would require the building of another 400 megacities in and around existing cities.
While an additional two billion people would be lifted from poverty and hunger, such rapid progress would merely compensate for the growing world population.
This would still leave about 3 billion people with less than two dollars per day -- barely different from right now.
Yet, around 240 million people, mostly in rural areas, would likely remain without access to improved water sources, and 1.4 billion people without access to basic sanitation.
Despite rapid advances in many countries, 1.8 billion people would remain without access to modern energy services for cooking and heating.
Millions would continue to be excluded from otherwise improved global health. However, universal primary and secondary education for all will most likely have been achieved by 2050.
Gross world product would reach US$300 trillion or more, with the BRICS alone accounting for almost half of it.
A global middle class would have emerged amid abject poverty. Global average GDP per capita might be around US$35,000. In other words, incomes in most countries would be on a level of today’s developed countries. Yet, some of the most vulnerable and poorest economies would remain marginalised.
Crop yields and efficiencies in terms of energy, water, and materials would reach impressive levels. Yet, they would continue to be outstripped by demand increases.
Renewable energy use would greatly increase in absolute terms, but fossil fuels would remain an important energy source. Atmospheric GHG concentrations would continue to rise - eventually leading to a 3 to 6˚C warming.
Water demand would be 55 per cent larger than today. In the face of competing demands, there would be limited scope for increasing irrigation.
3.9 billion people would live in river basins under severe water stress, and 6.9 billion would experience some water stress. 1.6 billion people would be at risk from floods, with the value of assets at risk quadrupling to US$45 trillion.
Pollution loads by industry continue past trends, including for pollution from toxic chemicals. It would likely lead to an unabated increase in the global burden of disease attributable to hazardous chemicals. Urban air quality would continue to deteriorate.
Agricultural land area is expected to increase until 2030 and decline thereafter. Deforestation rates would likely continue to decline. But most primary forests might be destroyed by mid-century.
Protected land and marine areas continue to increase, however, continued overfishing beyond maximum sustainable yield is likely, as is ocean warming and acidification, eutrophication, habitat degradation. This might lead to a global collapse of ocean fisheries based on “wild catch”, to be replaced by aquaculture.
Many of what some call the planetary boundaries, including in terms of climate change, are expected to be breached. Irreversible environmental events are of increasing concern.
Biodiversity loss is expected to continue unabated, declining by at least 10 per cent from today’s rate.
All in all, a mixed picture emerges from this frontier work on sustainable development scenarios. If we continue merely with incremental progress as in the past, lots of short-term progress might come at the expense of long-term deterioration in other areas.
Excellencies,
It is against this long-term, “big picture” scenario that the shorter-term economic forecasts in the next year or two should be seen.Until very recently, there has been a steady improvement in global growth conditions. In line with this, the most recent forecast from the DESA’s World Economic Situation and Prospects indicates that world gross product is expected to expand by 3.2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019.
This improvement reflects a further uptick in the growth outlook for developed economies in 2018. It comes on the strength of accelerating wage growth, broadly favourable investment conditions, and the short-term impact of a fiscal stimulus package in the United States.
The generally positive macroeconomic conditions create the basis for policymakers to take measures that will help to make meaningful progress towards the SDGs.
It offers an opportunity to raise living standards on a broad scale, especially in developing regions.
However, in parallel with the improvement in economic growth, we have seen a rise in risks to the economic outlook.
Increasingly unilateral trade measures are challenging the multilateral trading system.
Efforts are needed to revitalize a global partnership for sustainable development to build a universal, rules-based, open, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading system.
Stronger economic growth in itself is not sufficient to ensure that these gains are widely shared.
As recognized in SDG 10, reduced inequality – both within and among countries – is a key factor for inclusive growth and shared prosperity and for people’s feelings of well-being.
The recent acceleration in economic growth also comes with an environmental cost.
At the current rate, efforts to combat climate change are insufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
More generally, to move to more positive scenarios for our future, we need to take the kind of transformative actions the SDGs require.
A transformative character of the SDGs is their integration. Another is the commitment to leave no one behind. Each requires innovative thinking and new approaches to policies and financing.
Excellencies,
Long-run sustainable development scenarios can help identifying promising pathways forward.Our ability to have foresight and find answers to long-term questions and challenges will have far-reaching effects on the global economy – as well as on the future of sustainable development.
I look forward to our Dialogue and the insights it will produce.
Thank you.
It is a pleasure to be with you today.
We cannot fulfil the transformative potential of the 2030 Agenda with the old approach.
The Agenda demands foresight, envisioning and planning the future, and new ways of working from all actors, and from all our respective global institutions.
The Department of Economic and Social Affairs has promoted long-run future scenarios of sustainable development since 2010.
We have developed our own global models and created long-run, fully integrated scenarios of climate, land, energy, water, materials, infrastructure, technology systems, and development to 2030 and 2050.
In recognition of the contribution of science and academia, DESA works closely with scientific communities as well, most notably on “The World in 2050” initiative.
So, what would the world look like in 2030 and beyond, if we continue with current trends?
- Would we meet the SDGs with the current economic-growth-first focus without fundamental changes?
- Will unprecedented technological progress save the day?
Imagine this world by mid-century!
People are at the heart of sustainable development and will be critical in the realisation of the 2030 Agenda. Any changes in terms of demographics can significantly impact the future.
According to the latest Revision of DESA’s World Population Prospects, global population growth has slowed. Yet, many of the least developed countries continue to experience rapid population growth.
Over the next few decades, growth in population is projected to be fastest in countries that face the greatest challenges for ending poverty and hunger and ensuring access to healthcare, education and decent work for all.
The 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects, also produced by UN DESA, projects that most of the increase in global population will be reflected in the growth of urban areas.
So, we will be living in an increasingly crowded urban world.
Some 9 billion people will live on Earth in 2050, with 70 per cent of them in urban areas. This means an additional 2.8 billion people in cities, and 600 million fewer people in rural areas. This would require the building of another 400 megacities in and around existing cities.
While an additional two billion people would be lifted from poverty and hunger, such rapid progress would merely compensate for the growing world population.
This would still leave about 3 billion people with less than two dollars per day -- barely different from right now.
Yet, around 240 million people, mostly in rural areas, would likely remain without access to improved water sources, and 1.4 billion people without access to basic sanitation.
Despite rapid advances in many countries, 1.8 billion people would remain without access to modern energy services for cooking and heating.
Millions would continue to be excluded from otherwise improved global health. However, universal primary and secondary education for all will most likely have been achieved by 2050.
Gross world product would reach US$300 trillion or more, with the BRICS alone accounting for almost half of it.
A global middle class would have emerged amid abject poverty. Global average GDP per capita might be around US$35,000. In other words, incomes in most countries would be on a level of today’s developed countries. Yet, some of the most vulnerable and poorest economies would remain marginalised.
Crop yields and efficiencies in terms of energy, water, and materials would reach impressive levels. Yet, they would continue to be outstripped by demand increases.
Renewable energy use would greatly increase in absolute terms, but fossil fuels would remain an important energy source. Atmospheric GHG concentrations would continue to rise - eventually leading to a 3 to 6˚C warming.
Water demand would be 55 per cent larger than today. In the face of competing demands, there would be limited scope for increasing irrigation.
3.9 billion people would live in river basins under severe water stress, and 6.9 billion would experience some water stress. 1.6 billion people would be at risk from floods, with the value of assets at risk quadrupling to US$45 trillion.
Pollution loads by industry continue past trends, including for pollution from toxic chemicals. It would likely lead to an unabated increase in the global burden of disease attributable to hazardous chemicals. Urban air quality would continue to deteriorate.
Agricultural land area is expected to increase until 2030 and decline thereafter. Deforestation rates would likely continue to decline. But most primary forests might be destroyed by mid-century.
Protected land and marine areas continue to increase, however, continued overfishing beyond maximum sustainable yield is likely, as is ocean warming and acidification, eutrophication, habitat degradation. This might lead to a global collapse of ocean fisheries based on “wild catch”, to be replaced by aquaculture.
Many of what some call the planetary boundaries, including in terms of climate change, are expected to be breached. Irreversible environmental events are of increasing concern.
Biodiversity loss is expected to continue unabated, declining by at least 10 per cent from today’s rate.
All in all, a mixed picture emerges from this frontier work on sustainable development scenarios. If we continue merely with incremental progress as in the past, lots of short-term progress might come at the expense of long-term deterioration in other areas.
Excellencies,
It is against this long-term, “big picture” scenario that the shorter-term economic forecasts in the next year or two should be seen.Until very recently, there has been a steady improvement in global growth conditions. In line with this, the most recent forecast from the DESA’s World Economic Situation and Prospects indicates that world gross product is expected to expand by 3.2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019.
This improvement reflects a further uptick in the growth outlook for developed economies in 2018. It comes on the strength of accelerating wage growth, broadly favourable investment conditions, and the short-term impact of a fiscal stimulus package in the United States.
The generally positive macroeconomic conditions create the basis for policymakers to take measures that will help to make meaningful progress towards the SDGs.
It offers an opportunity to raise living standards on a broad scale, especially in developing regions.
However, in parallel with the improvement in economic growth, we have seen a rise in risks to the economic outlook.
Increasingly unilateral trade measures are challenging the multilateral trading system.
Efforts are needed to revitalize a global partnership for sustainable development to build a universal, rules-based, open, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading system.
Stronger economic growth in itself is not sufficient to ensure that these gains are widely shared.
As recognized in SDG 10, reduced inequality – both within and among countries – is a key factor for inclusive growth and shared prosperity and for people’s feelings of well-being.
The recent acceleration in economic growth also comes with an environmental cost.
At the current rate, efforts to combat climate change are insufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
More generally, to move to more positive scenarios for our future, we need to take the kind of transformative actions the SDGs require.
A transformative character of the SDGs is their integration. Another is the commitment to leave no one behind. Each requires innovative thinking and new approaches to policies and financing.
Excellencies,
Long-run sustainable development scenarios can help identifying promising pathways forward.Our ability to have foresight and find answers to long-term questions and challenges will have far-reaching effects on the global economy – as well as on the future of sustainable development.
I look forward to our Dialogue and the insights it will produce.
Thank you.
File date:
Thursday, July 19, 2018