At the crossroads of crisis
How the climate crisis worsens displacement and conflict
Conflict forces people to flee their homes, the climate crisis makes sure they cannot go back. By June 2025, this was the harsh reality for many of the world’s 117 million people forcibly displaced by conflict and violence.
According to UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, three in every four refugees and displaced people around the world are currently living in countries facing high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards. Tens of millions of people are left with nowhere to go as extreme weather amplifies the suffering from violence. Over half of the world’s refugee settlements are located in high heat spots, with the fifteen hottest camps for displaced people projected to face over 200 days of hazardous heat per year by 2050.
The need for humanitarian aid spikes alongside the risks of repeated displacement, while chances of recovery rapidly disappear from view. Inclusive, accessible, and joined global action is needed now to stop the crisis, and to return hope and perspective to millions.
A phenomenon that knows no borders
The connection between the climate crisis and displacement is not new, but it is intensifying. Since 2016, approximately 250 million people have been displaced within their home countries by weather-related disasters such as droughts and floods, averaging around 67,000 displacements every day for 10 years. This is a 10 per cent increase from the ten-year average through the end of 2023, indicative of the sharp increase in weather-related disasters since 1970. In line with this trend, the number of countries facing extreme climate-related hazards is projected to rise from the current three to 65 by 2040.
The consequences are being felt worldwide, in a phenomenon that knows no borders. Exemplary is the situation in 2024 in refugee camps in Dabaab, Kenya, where 20,000 people were displaced for the second time following floods, among them many Somalis who had initially fled their country due to severe droughts. Around the same time, thousands of kilometers away, heavy floods displaced 600,000 people in southern Brazil, in a region that is tarnished by extreme weather to this day. Caught in the middle of this disaster were around 43,000 refugees, whose need for protection surged.
Exacerbating conflict and displacement
While the climate crisis has shown to directly lead to displacement, it also exacerbates conflict. This means existing threats and vulnerabilities from violence are amplified. For example, droughts and floods in South Sudan are destroying farming-based livelihoods. This raises food insecurity to emergency levels for millions and adds to the already dire situation in the country, which is hosting over a million refugees from war-torn neighbor Sudan alongside its own internally displaced population of nearly two million.
In Haiti, armed conflict and weather shocks converge to drive up food prices. Over 1.4 million people have been displaced. As armed groups control nearly 90 per cent of the capital Port-au-Prince, large numbers of farmers no longer have access to the city’s markets, making it impossible for them to bring food to the masses. Meanwhile, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season rages on at an above-average intensity, plaguing the region with floods and failed harvests. About 5.7 million Haitians face acute food insecurity due to these combined factors.
Collective climate action has become an urgent and essential component of peace processes. As described in UNHCR’s November 2025 report, governments must weave displacement concerns into their national climate and disaster plans, to make sure that no one is left behind when adaptation strategies are made and implemented.
Reliable and consistent funding is as vital as ever to help host countries that are already bearing the brunt of overlapping crises adapt to climate-related shocks. Investing in early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and regional cooperation is a matter of life and death in the world’s most vulnerable regions.
The message is clear: if the world does not act, millions will be left with nowhere to go, no home to return to.
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