National workshop on population projections

9 am – 5 pm

Opening

• GEOSTAT

• Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development,  Population Division, DESA and Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA

Session 1. Introduction

• Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA
  • 1.1 Why do we need population projections?
  • 1.2 Why are we bad at making them?
  • 1.3 The basic accounting identity of demography
  • 1.4 The Lexis diagram
  • 1.5 The cohort component projection method
  • 1.6 Training exercise: Lexis diagrams

Session 2. Establishing the starting population

• Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA  
  • 2.1 Evaluate the quality of the data
  • 2.2 Deficient and incomplete data: methods for correction
  • 2.3 Transfer the population to midyear
  • 2.4 Training exercise: Preparing the starting population

9 am – 5 pm

Session 3.  Fertility component

• Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division DESA 

  • 3.1 Analysis of past fertility trends: levels and age patterns

  • 3.2 Training exercise: Baseline fertility data for Georgia

  • 3.3 Projection of future fertility trends

  • 3.4 Training exercise: Fertility assumptions for Georgia

Session 4. Mortality component

• Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA

  • 4.1 The life table

  • 4.2 Assessing the completeness of register data

  • 4.3 Training exercise: Constructing a life table

  • 4.4 Projection of future mortality trends

  • 4.5 Training exercise: Mortality assumptions for Georgia

9 am – 5 pm

Session 5. Migration component

• Thomas Spoorenbeg, Population Division, DESA

  • 5.1 Analysis of past migration trends: levels and age patterns

  • 5.2 Training exercise: Baseline migration data for Georgia

  • 5.3 Projection of future migration trends

  • 5.4 Training exercise: Migration assumptions for Georgia

Session 6. National population projections 

• Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA

  • 6.1 The components of the cohort component projection method

  • 6.2 Detailed procedures for making population projections using the DAPPS software

  • 6.3 Examining graphs and tables in DAPPS

  • 6.4 Training exercise: A population projection for Georgia

  • 6.5 How to design integrated scenarios

  • 6.6 Training exercise: Integrated scenarios for Georgia

9 am – 5 pm

Session 7. Subnational population projections

• Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA

  • 7.1 Subnational components

  • 7.2 Interregional migration

  • 7.3 Insuring consistency with national projections

  • 7.4 The Feeney method

  • 7.5 Iterative proportional fitting

  • 7.6 Detailed procedures for making subnational projections using software

  • 7.7 Training exercise: Subnational population projections for Georgia

9 am – 5 pm

Session 8. Innovations in data visualization methods

• Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA 

  • 8.1 How to present population results

  • 8.2 Using indicators: population ageing

  • 8.3 Quantifying projection uncertainty thru probability fans

  • 8.4 3-D visualizations: R, 3D printing, and AR

  • 8.5 Training exercise

Session 9. Conclusions and final discussion

Closing

• GEOSTAT