Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators

Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators 2020

The Population Division produces a systematic and comprehensive series of annual, model-based estimates and projections of key family planning indicators. The time series are available for the population of women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) who are married or in a union for the period from 1970 to 2030 and for all women of reproductive age and for those who are unmarried for the period from 1990 to 2030. Median estimates with 80 per cent and 95 per cent uncertainty intervals are provided for 186 countries or areas of the world and for regions and development groups. A Bayesian hierarchical model combined with country-specific time trends was used to generate the estimates, projections and uncertainty assessments. 

The estimates and projections are based on the country-specific data compiled in World Contraceptive Use 2020. Model results are as of February 2020. 

Details of the methodology are described in: 

Alkema L., V. Kantorová, C. Menozzi and A. Biddlecom (2013). National, regional and global rates and trends in contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning between 1990 and 2015: a systematic and comprehensive analysis. The Lancet. Vol. 381, Issue 9878, pp. 1642– 1652. 

Wheldon, M. V. Kantorová, P. Ueffing and A. N. Z. Dasgupta (2018). Methods for estimating and projecting key family planning indicators among all women of reproductive age. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Technical Paper No. 2. New York: United Nations. 

Kantorová V., M. C. Wheldon, P. Ueffing and A. N. Z. Dasgupta (2020) Estimating progress towards meeting women’s contraceptive needs in 185 countries: A Bayesian hierarchical modelling study. PLOS Medicine 17(2): e1003026