World Youth Report 2005
E. Intergenerational relations
34. Before the middle of this century, older persons and youth will comprise a roughly equal share of the world’s population. The proportion of those aged 60 years and over is expected to double, rising from 10 to 21 per cent between 2000 and 2050, and the proportion of those under 14 years of age will decline by a third, from 30 to 20 per cent (see figure 1).m The youth population will decrease from 18 to 14 per cent of the total population.n
35. This ageing of society is already apparent in developed countries. The process is occurring at a much higher rate in developing countries, however, and in many cases, the necessary infrastructure and policies will not be in place to deal with the consequent developments. Whereas today 6 of every 10 older persons live in a developing country, by 2050 the number will be 8 of every 10 (see figure 2). Africa remains the area with the youngest population, although its proportion of youth is expected to decline and that of older persons to double.
36. Between 2000 and 2050, global life expectancy rates are expected to increase from 65 to 74 years.o Consequently, families consisting of four or more generations are no longer uncommon. This raises questions as to the responsibility for individuals within the family and the capacities of government-controlled welfare systems, including old age pension and health provision. The interdependence between younger and older people will increase in the future. Youth development will increasingly become a prerequisite to meeting the growing care demands of older people and a condition for the development of society as a whole.
37. The family continues to be the primary social institution in which different generations in society cohabit. Family structures, however, are undergoing profound changes. There has been a shift from extended to nuclear families and an increase in the number of one-person and cohabitating households. The age at first marriage has risen to the mid- to late twenties, often due to extended educational careers and delayed entry into the labour market, particularly for young women. This has been compounded by a trend towards later childbearing and having fewer children.
38. The AIDS pandemic has reversed decades of gradual gains in life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa. In the worst-affected countries of Eastern and Southern Africa, the probability of a 15-year-old dying before reaching 60 years of age has risen sharply, from 10 to 30 per cent in the mid-1980s to 30 to 60 per cent at the start of the new millennium.p Young people have been particularly affected by the intergenerational impact of the epidemic. The need to care for infected relatives, to cope with the loss of family members and to take care of AIDS orphans has had an extensive impact on young people and caused them to take on new roles of responsibility in their families and societies.
39. Poverty is transmitted through generations. There is a difference between lifecourse poverty, also known as intra-generational poverty, and intergenerational transmission of poverty. Life-course poverty denotes the ways in which a poor child or young person can grow into a poor or even poorer adult; intergenerational poverty refers to the transmittance of poverty through generations. Interventions related to education, health and employment can break the poverty cycle, and without these interventions, poverty tends to deepen with age. An intergenerational perspective adds a useful dimension when addressing global poverty. The intergenerational transmission of poverty involves both private and public spheres, the latter, for example through the taxation of income of older generations to pay for the primary education system. Transfers can be both positive, through cash assets and positive aspirations, and negative, for example through bonded labour, poor nutrition and gender discrimination. The extent to which a parent’s poverty is transmitted to children is affected by the ways in which resources and care are distributed within the household and society.
40. The extent to which a young person is economically dependent, independent or depended on within the household can change extremely rapidly. This has significant implications for present and long-term well-being, both for the young person and his or her family. High youth unemployment rates prevent or delay many young people from becoming economically independent from their families.
41. Intergenerational relations also concern cultural trends. In the transitional phase from childhood to adulthood, young people create their own identity, adopting the cultural norms and values of their parents and adapting them to the society they encounter around them. The globalization of media has enlarged the scope of norms and values upon which young people draw in creating their identities. Young people are increasingly taking over aspects of cultures from around the world and incorporating them into their own identity. This may cause cultural gaps with their parents and grandparents to widen. The intergenerational digital divide between the young and old generations also contributes to this gap. Figure 2. Age groups and their share in global population, 2000-2050. United Nations World Population Prospects: the 2002 Revision. Volume II: Sex and Age (New York, 2003).
42. Increased attention should be given to the socio-economic impact of ageing societies. There is a case to promote a two-pronged approach: first, investing in individual life courses, which includes age-adjusted policies and programmes that encourage workplace flexibility, lifelong learning and healthy lifestyles, especially during transitional periods, such as youth to adulthood, family formation, or midlife to later years; and second, strengthening the social environment of family, neighbourhood and community.
Footnotes:
m. See United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision Highlights (New York, 2003).
n. See United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, vol. II, Sex and Age (United Nations publication, Sales No. 03.XIII.7).
o. See United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, vol. I, Comprehensive Tables (United Nations publication, Sales No. 03.XIII.6).
p. See World Health Organization, World Health Report 2004: Changing History (Geneva, 2004).