KEY FORESIGHT AND PREPAREDNESS FUNCTIONS IN THIS CHAPTER
CONTEXT AND CHALLENGES
Crises continue to show that many countries are unprepared and those already living in the deepest deprivation are most negatively impacted. Leaving no one behind requires a ‘whole-of-society’ approach to ensure the visibility and inclusion of social groups that are most at risk of being excluded. It also requires a ‘whole-of-government’ approach to promote inclusive institutions and participatory decision-making processes at all levels of policy formulation, as well as available and accurate data on these social groups. There is increasing realization that strengthening governance and capacities of public institutions to promote sound policymaking, especially evidence-based strategic planning and foresight, and the capacity for adaptive management, is vital to address present and future challenges.
UN DESA’s foresight and preparedness work is grounded in promoting inclusion and human rights of the most vulnerable and marginalized sections of society to reduce inequalities and ensure equal opportunities for all. The Department recognizes that the costs of unpreparedness are most likely to be borne by those who can least afford them. UN DESA also highlights preparedness in the context of countries being able to leverage future opportunities – for instance, from innovations – and to bring development towards a socially sustainable path. This requires strengthening leadership, institutional development and public service delivery systems that can withstand crises and support inclusive and innovative approaches to tackling challenges.
FORESIGHT AND PREPAREDNESS FUNCTIONS
1.
Ensuring all members of society are considered in planning for the future
Recognizing that societies that are not inclusive will not be sustainable, UN DESA focuses its analytical work and intergovernmental support to ensure the voices and needs of all individuals and groups are represented. This enables Member States, international organisations and civil society to understand and react to emerging trends as well as future risks. The World Social Report 2023 for example, examines challenges and opportunities presented by global population ageing, an inevitable result of the demographic transition towards longer lives and smaller families. It brings new insights on how governments can apply appropriate foresight and planning to tackle the challenges and leverage the opportunities from population ageing while ensuring social and economic inclusion for all. Countries with robust and inclusive social protection policies and programmes are better at coping with crises, with overall positive effects on health, education, labour market outcomes, income inequality, and social cohesion. Previous editions of the World Social Report have also highlighted the current state of social protection policies globally. This has helped draw attention to gaps that need to be addressed to prepare for future challenges and risks, in particular building countries’ capacity to build robust, sustainable, gender-sensitive, and crisis-responsive social protection policies and programmes.
UN DESA emphasizes that forward thinking requires Member States to embrace the potential of population ageing and extended longevity as a cornerstone for future development. As the focal point on ageing in the United Nations system, the UN DESA programme on ageing facilitates and promotes the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing (MIPAA) including designing guidelines for policy development and implementation; advocating means to mainstream ageing issues into development agendas; engaging in dialogue with civil society and the private sector; and information exchange. UN DESA also coordinates the review and appraisal of the implementation of MIPAA, which is essential for its success in improving the lives of older persons. UN DESA generates a wide range of resources to inform and advise governments as they take stock of trends and consider policy options to respond to the opportunities and challenges of population ageing and to promote the development of a society for all ages. For instance, UN DESA has developed a Multiple Indicator Survey on Ageing (MISA) in Africa that helps to produce, analyze and deliver a database of harmonized indicators about older persons in the continent. A briefing series on ageing highlights a comprehensive range of ageing-related topics, from policy priorities and health inequalities to the economic, social, and humanitarian challenges faced by older persons.
The Department’s resources on youth recognise that the young generation is the future and crises can impact education, jobs, rights and mental well-being. The UN DES A Training Module on Promoting Sustainable Peace through National Youth Policies supports policymakers in designing (inclusive) national youth policies that integrate youth participation, development, peace, and security in national development processes. The World Programme of Action for Youth and its fifteen fields of priority action serve as the main thrust of UN DESA’s support. Through international forums, UN DESA is building an awareness of the global situation of young people, promoting their rights and aspirations, and working towards greater participation of young people in decision-making as a means of achieving peace and development.
UN DESA works to ensure persons with disabilities and Indigenous Peoples are central to foresight and preparedness effort. It has developed resources on disability, such as the Toolkit on Disability for Africa for Social Policy and Development (DSPD) which provides practical tools on disability-related issues to government officials, members of the parliament, civil and public servants at all levels, disabled people organizations (DPOs), and all others interested in the inclusion of people with disabilities in society. In supporting the Conference of States Parties to the Convention of the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, UN DESA works to advance the rights of persons with disabilities in society and development efforts.
A series of publications on the State of the World’s Indigenous Peoples fill critical analytical gaps about Indigenous Peoples that are particularly important, for example in the context of the negative impacts of climate change and environmental degradation on their ways of life, well-being, peace and security. The publications demonstrate the unique identity, knowledge and traditions of Indigenous Peoples as contributors and preservers of the world’s bio-cultural diversity. UN DESA’s website hosts a rich repository of resources on Indigenous Peoples including Guidelines for implementing the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, a Handbook for Parliamentarians, and policy briefs. UN DESA also supports the United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, an advisory body to the Economic and Social Council with a mandate to discuss indigenous issues related to economic and social development, culture, the environment, education, health and human rights.
“Strategic foresight is defined as an organized, systematic way of looking beyond the expected to engage with uncertainty and complexity. It also includes the capacity to think systematically about the future to inform decision-making today.
It is a cognitive capacity that we need to develop as individuals, as organizations and as a society. In individuals, it is usually an unconscious capacity and needs to be surfaced to be used in any meaningful way to inform decision-making.”
CEPA strategy guidance note on strategic planning and foresight, February 2021
2.
Strengthening the foresight capacities of public institutions to leave no one behind
The Department’s analytical work promotes foresight and resilience in volatile and fast-moving environments. The voluntary Principles of Effective Governance for Sustainable Development provide expert guidance to interested countries in a broad range of governance challenges. Sound policymaking is one of the eleven Principles of Effective Governance for Sustainable Development, which were developed by the Committee of Experts on Public Administration (CEPA) and endorsed by the United Nations Economic and Social Council in 2018. One of the commonly used strategies to implement sound policymaking is strategic foresight. UN DESA’s strategic planning and foresight guidance note, developed to operationalize strategic foresight, provides the foundation for capacity development work undertaken by the Department to support pragmatic improvements in national and local governance capabilities to reach the SDGs. The World Public Sector Report 2023 also featured an expert contribution focused on “Operationalizing strategic foresight to better support Governments in managing Sustainable Development Goal trade-offs and synergies in the post-COVID context.” It explores recent progress in strategic foresight practice and how it can support policy coherence and integration, outlining ideas to accelerate its adoption to unlock SDG progress.
UN DESA’s “Policy Brief No. 139: Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience for Climate Action through Risk-informed Governance” contributes to SDGs 13, 15, 16 and 17 as it examines how to strengthen disaster risk reduction and resilience for climate action through risk-informed governance. The Policy Brief analyses the global trends in disasters and its consequences on society. It examines the concept of risk-informed governance and why it is critical for DRR and resilience.
UN DESA provides Member States knowledge sharing platforms, technical advisory services, and online and in-person capacity development training on a broad range of governance and public administration foresight and preparedness strategies and implementation modalities. Strengthening institutional, organizational and individual capacities for strategic foresight is critical for proactively addressing events rather than merely reacting to them. Establishing frameworks for inter-ministerial cooperation and multi-level governance is vital for improving effective policymaking. Effective strategic planning and foresight are key to ensuring that organizations are equipped to tackle complex future challenges and crises. Although predicting the future is not possible, strategic foresight provides the tools necessary for successful policy development amid uncertainty. This involves examining and preparing for various potential scenarios to future-proof strategies, uncover new opportunities and challenges, and devise innovative approaches to improving well-being as conditions change. It allows governments to make strategic decisions to shape a collectively desired future—a vision that supports sound, coherent, and evidence-based policymaking, manages risks, and fosters adaptable, future-ready organizations. Building the capacity for a foresight mindset is also critical. A foresight mindset includes short and long-term planning to develop clear goals that are consistent with agreed strategies; a belief in the importance of focusing on forward looking strategies to ensure anticipatory, flexible, and action-oriented behaviours.
The Department recognizes the urgent need to strengthen local institutions to cope with an increasingly complex social environment affected by multiple crises, including COVID-19, fiscal restrictions, climate change, energy challenges, and other concurrent crises that disproportionately impact those left behind. UN DESA is implementing projects with Member States, in collaboration with other UN agencies and regional economic commissions, to build capacities in responding to poverty and inequality risks based on multidimensional causes. UN DESA works with countries to develop tools and institutional arrangements that enhance SDG progress through more effective and inclusive social protection systems, including the promotion of data-driven policy making. Recognizing the importance of integrated social protection schemes, UN DESA has developed capacity building tools to support countries’ efforts in adopting sustainable, whole-of-government practices. These efforts aim to address the dynamics of vulnerability faced by individuals, households, and communities throughout their life cycle.
UN DESA leverages its knowledge resources and products on strategic foresight to support governments by partnering with UN Resident Coordinators, UN country teams, schools of public administration, academia, civil society organizations, among others.
UN DESA frames preparedness, resilience, and foresight within a ‘whole-of-government approach’ to ensure inclusiveness and leaving no one behind. By supporting regional and national capacity development activities guided by the UN Resident Coordinator System and its capacity building tools, it fosters a holistic understanding of resilience and takes concrete actions to promote equity and inclusion for marginalized groups and people in vulnerable situations. This approach aligns with the principle of leaving no one behind in the 2030 Agenda and the Sendai Framework for DRR.
The Department provides tools and resources aimed at strengthening a whole-of-government approach to foresight and risks to sustainable development. For instance, the Reconstructing Public Administration after Conflict Guidance Toolkit focuses on reconstructing public administration after conflict, which is the fundamental prerequisite for development in any post-conflict situation. The World Public Sector Report documents key trends in the institutional arrangements adopted by countries to implement the 2030 Agenda and assesses some of the strengths and weaknesses of those arrangements regarding the performance of key functions of the policy process. The voluntary Principles of Effective Governance for Sustainable Development provide expert guidance to interested countries in a broad range of governance challenges. The Institutional Readiness Assessment for Policy Coherence supports government agencies in assessing their institutional readiness to support policy coherence. It is meant to diagnose the extent to which the current public sector priorities and strategies, rules and regulations, processes and structures, competencies, and the mindsets in government enable the implementation of integrated policies at central and local levels.
UN DESA’s resources are also available to support governance capacities to tackle risk and build resilience for future eventualities. The Department works with Member States in assessing the state of global e-governance and offering best practices for improving the ways people interact with different parts of their government, incorporating new tools and innovations. UN DESA and UN University (UNU) have designed, maintain, and apply Local Online Service Index (LOSI) methodology to assess local government portals. So far UN DESA and UNU have applied the LOSI methodology to the most populous cities in 193 UN Member States. There is a strong interest in applying the LOSI methodology to more cities in a single country. UN DESA and UNU are inviting interested institutions, which have self-sustained resources and capacities to support the process, to partner and apply LOSI methodology within a single country. The Effective National to Local Public Governance for SDG Implementation Training of Trainers Toolkit i s designed around the often-expressed challenges of strengthening national to local government coordination and institutional effectiveness for the SDGs. Therefore, this toolkit aims to break these barriers for more effective achievement of the SDGs and highlights the role of local government.
The Department produces several accessible resources helping to build leaders as future agents of change. For instance, the Online Course on Transformational Leadership Capacities in Africa’s Public Sector Institutions to Implement the 2030 Agenda and Achieve the SDGs is particularly tailored for public servants in Africa or anyone interested in learning about transformational leadership in Africa. The Public Servants’ Mindsets to Implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Training of Trainers Toolkit provides a set of methodologies and tools that can contribute to a change in the environment, culture, and mindset of public servants in implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the context of the 2030 Agenda. The Publication on Changing Mindsets to Realize the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides key recommendations on promoting public servants’ mindsets, competencies, and behaviours to foster effectiveness, accountability, and inclusiveness in the public sector. Finally, the Global Network of Schools of Public Administration aims to strengthen the advocacy of the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs among all stakeholders and to create, expand and exchange knowledge on the 2030 Agenda and develop individual, organizational and institutional capabilities.
UN DESA supports national efforts to improve their responsiveness to public needs and engagement of people in the foresight and preparedness efforts. It promotes e-participation and the use of open government data to improve public accountability, combat corruption, and enhance the delivery of public services. For instance, the Government Innovation for Social Inclusion of Vulnerable Groups Training of Trainers Toolkit builds capacities to promote government innovation for the social inclusion of vulnerable group by introducing approaches, strategies, and experiences at the national level. The Risk-informed Governance and Innovative Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience, Training of Trainers Toolkit seeks to build national capacities to spearhead innovations and utilize Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) and key frontier technologies in government to drive DRR and resilience. A handbook on Strengthening Resilience in Cities and Local Communities through Innovation and Digital Government contributes to developing the capacities and skills of local government officials, policymakers and other relevant stakeholders in strengthening resilience in cities and local communities to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Sendai Framework for DRR.
UN DESA delivers workshops aimed at strengthening strategic planning and foresight for sound policy making, raising awareness and communication of future risks, and improving governance responses. Its capacity development activities are oriented to build competencies of public institutions and leaders and to facilitate networks of public servants to enable knowledge exchange and prepare them for future risks and opportunities. For instance, in partnership with the African Peer Mechanism and Resident Coordinators, the Department organized regional webinars on promoting resilience and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa from November 2021 to January 2022 on sound policymaking, strategic planning and foresight. UN DESA provided an overview of the state of play on strategic planning and foresight in these countries as well as some suggestions on how capacities could be enhanced. Participants stated that strategic planning and foresight associated with the principle of sound policymaking is relevant and can contribute to strengthening the effectiveness of institutions.
Member State testimonials about UN DESA risk-informed governance workshops
“This course is excellent. I believe there is a need to capacitate participants to become Ambassadors for change or Trainer of Trainers on these concepts. This is a highly scalable project.”
LDRRMO I CDRRMO, Maasin City, The Philippines
“I‘ll work towards making Boma, South Sudan, a different place with the knowledge gained from this workshop.”
Peer Educator, Sea Partners, South Sudan
“I am very much happier by participating in this invaluable capacity building. I believe the training will have ground-breaking impacts worldwide in combatting risks and making the world safer and more productive for living.”
Ph.D. student, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China
“I commend UN DESA/DPIDG/UNPOG for organizing workshops like this. Poor municipalities like ours could have access and will gain knowledge on DRRM. Our learnings are very vital to make our leaders, DRRM advocates and the people proactive in battling the hazards in our locality.”
Local Disaster Reduction and Management Officer, Municipality of Mabuhay, The Philippines
