Today’s meeting can make the difference between human hope and despair,
between economic recovery and a plunge into deepening recession. We have
seen the frightening velocity of change. What began as a financial crisis has become a global economic crisis. I fear worse to come: a full-blown
political crisis defined by growing social unrest, weakened governments and
angry publics who have lost all faith in their leaders and their own
future.

We must stop the slide. The recession hurts everyone, but those hurt worst
are the poor – people with no homes or savings to lose, who in some
countries spend as much as 80% of their income on food, and often lack the
basics of healthcare, water and sanitation. They are the majority of the
world’s people – and they have no safety net.

In good times, economic and social development comes slowly. In bad times,
things fall apart alarmingly fast. It is a short step from hunger to
starvation, from disease to death, from peace and stability to conflict and
wars that spill across borders and affect us all, near and far. Unless we
can build a worldwide recovery, we face a looming catastrophe in human
development.

This is what I will tell world leaders at the G20 summit in London. That is
why I will press for urgent collective action to bolster global development
and allow people to keep faith in their future.

We must recognise our interdependence. No single nation can hope to find
economic security without taking into account the wellbeing of others. We
therefore need a truly global stimulus. Between now and the end of next
year, at least $1tn will be needed to provide liquidity, longer-term
resources for –productive investment and a safety net for the poorest and
most vulnerable.

The G20 looks likely to take steps that ensure developing countries have
access to liquidity through the IMF. This is important because developing
countries are experiencing a credit crunch that has devastated trade and
slowed growth. There is a thin line between failing banks and failing
countries, and we cross it at our peril.

G20 leaders may also agree to boost lending by the World Bank and other
development banks. This is important because private funding for
infrastructure projects has contracted sharply.

The poorer countries have had no part in the making of this crisis and yet
they are in danger of suffering the most. That is why those countries that
made a commitment to raising aid at Gleneagles in 2005 should reaffirm that
promise, and also allocate more to poorer countries. This would amount to
at least $300bn of assistance during 2009 and 2010.

Meanwhile, we must resist short-sighted pressures that would compromise, if
not destroy, the progress we make in London – and say no to the new
protectionism. At their last summit, in Washington, the G20 nations
solemnly promised not to place new restrictions on trade. Since then 17 of
the 20 have done precisely that. We must reverse this.

The London summit is an opportunity for the world’s most powerful nations
to act together and show solidarity with their less fortunate neighbours on
our small and increasingly vulnerable planet. Across the globe we face
massive job losses. Many of the unemployed will be young and angry. Many
work in foreign lands, sending money home for food, medicines and school
fees. These remittances make up large percentages of some nations’ GDP.
Their collapse lights a dangerous social fuse.

One trillion dollars over two years is not so large a sum, considering the
consequences. Some might call it a moral imperative. But if our goal is to
reverse a global slump, it is also sound economics.