EARTH SUMMIT+5 Special Session of the General Assembly to Review and Appraise the Implementation of Agenda 21 New York, 23-27 June 1997 PROGRAMME FACT SHEETS

	Understanding the "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO).
	Responsible Organization(s)	The Intergovernmental Commission (IOC) of UNESCO. IOC/WMO/CPPS Working Group on the El Nino Phenomenon, UNDP/IOC project on El Nino, IOC-TOGA program on oceanography in the western equatorial Pacific, UNEP etc.
	Description	The "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) consists of a movement of the waters along the equatorial region of the Pacific in association with the atmosphere. This combination acts in such a way that significant areas of the globe experience consequential extended droughts or alternatively, periods of heavy rainfall
	Issues addressed	Limit the uncertainty associated with the onset of widespread droughts and excessive precipitation events. Allow substitution of appropriate food- crops (eg. maize for rice) in order to mitigate losses and help ensure food-security in the face of conditions that might otherwise promote famine (Africa).
	Objectives	Understand the factors responsible for the promotion of the El Nino events and the extent of the resultant effects on a global scale to promote sustainable development and to forecast events so to ensure appropriate management responses.
	Results achieved	Ocean and atmospheric data systems are now being used to predict both the advent and the intensity of the chaotic and irregular El Nino events and steps are taken in order to modify social expectations and agricultural planting-strategies. For instance, Peru already has a well-developed infrastructure for noting current trends in development of the Pacific warm-pool and translating expectations into crop-advisories. Indonesia likewise is moving to adjust expectations in rice-harvests and substitution of corn in areas of rain-fed agriculture in order to maximize productivity. Similar actions are now being implemented through central and eastern Africa in particular. The delay between the execution of the EL Nino event and its subsequent effect on Africa means that the prediction and assessment of impact is of potential high probability extending into the range of certainty.
	Lessons learned	The successful assessment of global phenomena requires the active and combined participation of numerous countries. Individual countries may often be under the impression that particular effects are specific to their own areas and that furthermore these are isolated in terms of cause. Organization needs to proceed at both local and global levels if the specific information required to sustain and enable collective assessment is to be gathered and worked upon. This involves simultaneous action at the country level as well as the global level. The time-frame to accomplish this to date has been about 20 years. If global warming proceeds as expected this time-frame must be reduced to between 1-2 years at the most. The emphasis on cooperation applies to both individual nation- states as well as International and Regional Organizations.
	Financing
	Contact	Gunnar KULLENBERG, Executive Secretary Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission 1, rue Miollis 75732 Paris Cedex 15 FRANCE tel: (33 1) 45 68 39 83, fax: (33 1) 40 65 99 76 email: g.kullenberg@unesco.org