Distr. GENERAL POPULATION COMMISSION Twenty-eighth session 21 February-2 March 1995 Item 5 (a) of the provisional agenda* PROGRAMME QUESTIONS: PROGRAMME PERFORMANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION Progress of work in the field of population, 1994: Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis Report of the Secretary-General SUMMARY The present report reviews the progress of the Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis in implementing its programme of work in the field of population during 1994. It covers the activities of the Department in subprogrammes dealing with analysis of demographic variables at the world level; world population projections; population policy and socio-economic development; monitoring, review and appraisal, coordination and dissemination of population information; and technical cooperation in population. CONTENTS Paragraphs Page INTRODUCTION .................................. 1 - 7 4 I. WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS .............. 8 - 23 5 A. Status of women and fertility ....... 8 - 10 5 B. Trends in reproductive behaviour .... 11 - 14 5 C. Dynamics of contraceptive use ....... 15 - 16 6 D. Status of women and child survival ... 17 7 E. International migration ............. 18 - 21 7 F. Internal migration .................. 22 - 23 8 II. WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS ............ 24 - 43 8 A. World population estimates and projections: 1994 and 1996 revisions 24 - 34 8 B. Urban, rural and city population estimates and projections: 1994 and 1996 revisions .................. 35 - 41 11 C. Subcommittee on Demographic Estimates and Projections ........... 42 - 43 12 III. POPULATION POLICY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ............................. 44 - 57 13 A. Comparative study of new population policy issues at the global level .... 44 - 45 13 B. National population policies ......... 46 - 47 13 C. Population policy data bank .......... 48 - 49 14 D. Assessing the demographic consequences of major development projects .............................. 50 14 E. Proceedings of the International Conference on Ageing Populations in the Context of the Family .......... 51 14 F. Proceedings of the United Nations Round Table on the Ageing of Asian Populations ...................... 52 14 G. Proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on Population, Environment and Development 53 14 CONTENTS (continued) Paragraphs Page H. Proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on Population Growth and Demographic Structure 54 14 I. Population and the environment: setting the research agenda ......................... 55 15 J. Population pressure, land use and the environment: national trends ........... 56 15 K. Governments' views on the relationship between population and the environment 57 15 IV. MONITORING, REVIEW AND APPRAISAL, COORDINATION AND DISSEMINATION OF POPULATION INFORMATION 58 - 70 15 A. Monitoring of population trends and policies 58 15 B. Substantive servicing of the Preparatory Committee for the International Conference on Population and Development at its third session ................................ 59 16 C. Substantive preparations and servicing of the International Conference on Population and Development ............................ 60 17 D. Coordination and dissemination of population information .................. 61 - 70 19 V. TECHNICAL COOPERATION ....................... 71 21 Annex. PUBLICATIONS AND OTHER MATERIAL ISSUED IN 1994 BY THE POPULATION DIVISION, AND THE SOFTWARE AND DATABASES MAINTAINED BY IT ....... 24 INTRODUCTION 1. The Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis acts as the focal point for economic and social analysis and information in respect of population and statistics and provides substantive support to the pertinent intergovernmental machinery, including the Population Commission and the Statistical Commission. Those functions include research and policy analysis and the execution of technical cooperation activities in the areas of statistics and population. 2. The Population Commission, at its twenty-seventh session, reviewed the progress of work for 1991-1993 and the programme of work for 1994-1995. 3. The present report deals with the research and technical cooperation work and information activities carried out by the Population Division in the field of population during 1994. The activities are grouped according to the subprogrammes of the programme budget for 1994-1995. 4. During 1994, most of the efforts and resources of the Population Division were concentrated on the substantive preparations and servicing of the International Conference on Population and Development, which took place in Cairo in September 1994. These are briefly dealt with in the present report. A more detailed report on the implications of the Conference for the work programme on population is contained in document E/CN.9/1995/5. 5. In addition, the Population Division made every effort to implement other aspects of the programme of work adopted by the Commission and endorsed by the Economic and Social Council and the General Assembly. The work programme for 1994-1995 was formulated and implemented within the basic framework set forth in the medium-term plan for the period 1992-1997, taking into account the recommendations of the World Population Plan of Action (1974) 1/ and the International Conference on Population (1984). 2/ Part of the programme period, however, has been affected, to some extent, by the additional responsibilities that have been placed on the Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis for providing substantive support to the International Conference on Population and Development. To the extent possible, this has been achieved by integrating the regular research activities of the Department with the added substantive reporting requirements of the Conference. 6. Some delays in the implementation of certain projects have occurred as a consequence, and some projects that were expected to be completed by the end of the biennium 1992-1993 were, therefore, carried over into 1994. Those activities have been integrated into the approved programme covered by the 1994-1995 programme budget, so as to achieve their completion by the end of that biennium. 7. The Department continued to collaborate closely with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The financial assistance of UNFPA made it possible to expand the scope and character of the projects undertaken by the Department and to improve the substantive aspects of several of them. In addition, the Department maintained close and effective collaboration with UNFPA in connection with the substantive preparations and servicing of the International Conference on Population and Development. I. WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS A. Status of women and fertility 8. Besides being identified as a development priority, women's education is widely acknowledged as a crucial determinant of fertility behaviour. In view of this, the nature and strength of the association between education and fertility has been a recurrent theme of fertility analysis at the United Nations. Most recently, substantive work on a major comparative study has been completed. The report is currently in its final stage of publication and is expected to be issued in 1995 under the title Women's Education and Fertility Behaviour: Recent Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys. The study reviews trends in the educational attainment of women in developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America and examines differences according to education and fertility, desired family size, age at marriage, contraceptive use and breast- feeding, among other factors. The report also examines education-fertility patterns over time, where data allow, and discusses factors related to the emergence of the large fertility contrasts, amounting often to differences of three to five children between highly educated women and those with little or no formal schooling, that are seen at present in a substantial number of developing countries. 9. To further the understanding of the groups of women of special concern, as identified in the Nairobi Forward-looking Strategies for the Advancement of Women, 3/ a comparative study on the living arrangement of women and their children in the third world was completed. The report is in the final stage of publication. 10. The Population Division has provided background information to and participated regularly in meetings of the Ad Hoc Inter-agency Advisory Committee on the Fourth World Conference on Women, the United Nations Development Fund for Women and the Working Group on Women's Health of the New York NGO Committee on the Status of Women. The Division has also been represented at several expert group meetings convened in preparation for the Fourth World Conference on Women. Through the Statistical Division of the Department, the Population Division has provided data and analytical studies for use in preparing the revised edition of The World's Women, 1970-1990: Trends and Statistics, 4/ which is one of the mandated documents for the Women's Conference. B. Trends in reproductive behaviour 11. With financial support from UNFPA, three country case-studies (on Ecuador, Indonesia and Zimbabwe) were initiated to study the effect of improved child survival on fertility. These case-studies employed individual-level data of mothers and children and the characteristics of their communities. The analysis focused on examining how availability and contact with community health and family-planning services mediate the relationship between child survival and fertility. The study was scheduled for completion in 1992-1993 but was delayed because of the late submission of the reports by the respective country consultants. The Population Division has consolidated the country consultants' reports into one report, with an overview showing common findings and generalization. The report will be published in late 1995. 12. A study of the family-building process, covering 15 countries representing various regions of the world, was initiated during the biennium 1992-1993. A new method for calculating parity progression ratios and other measures of family building was developed along with the necessary computer programs for calculations. The new method and computer programs were applied to 12 countries. A preliminary analysis of some data has been initiated. 13. A new analysis of fertility levels and trends, entitled Evolving Patterns of Fertility Behaviour in Developing Countries, was initiated. The study complements an earlier publication entitled Patterns of Fertility in Low- fertility Settings 5/ and covers the period from the 1970s to the 1990s. Its purpose is to update the data bank on fertility maintained by the Population Division, as well as to examine evolving fertility patterns and trends in the light of the new fertility data made available from a great variety of fertility surveys undertaken in developing countries in recent years. This is particularly enriching for regions of the world that in the past had very little information available on fertility patterns, such as the sub-Saharan African countries. So far, the data overview suggests that in the latter region, fertility has remained relatively high, with some notable exceptions. Fertility has continued to decline in Northern Africa, as well as in Asia and Latin America. 14. A computerized database for monitoring and analysis of family planning and fertility was established and is being updated with the latest available data from national and other sources. C. Dynamics of contraceptive use 15. A wall chart on contraceptive use worldwide was published in 1994. 6/ Patterns of Contraceptive Use will be published as an updated and modified version of Levels and Trends of Contraceptive Use as Assessed in 1988, 7/ which was published in 1989. The report provides data on contraceptive use, by type of method, for all countries with available information. It also presents regional and global average levels of contraceptive use and trends in levels of use, and estimates of the extent of availability of modern contraceptives in the developing countries. The report will include special features dealing with contraceptive use according to marital status and gender. It will also employ an improved basis for estimating numbers of married women and projecting the growth in number of contraceptive users in the light of projected fertility declines. Major work on this study has been completed and the report is scheduled to be published in 1995. 16. The Division continues to receive and respond to numerous requests for fertility and contraceptive-use data from United Nations organizations, research institutions and individual scholars. D. Status of women and child survival 17. A study on the status of women and child survival is being carried out with the financial assistance of UNFPA. The study will review the specific mechanisms leading to sex differentials in child mortality, particularly those associated with the prevalence of excess female child mortality. Both biological and socio-economic factors related to differential child mortality by sex are being considered. Among the latter, special emphasis is being placed on the analysis of the effects of variables indicating the status of women, including the differential utilization of health facilities, differential feeding practices by sex of the child and differences in nutritional status between male and female children. A major part of the study includes the estimation of infant and child mortality by sex for as many countries as possible and for various periods. The estimates derived will serve as a basis for documenting the extent of excess female child mortality and studying variations in sex differentials in child mortality by level of development and socio-cultural setting. The study is expected to be completed by the end of 1995. E. International migration 18. The preliminary version of the proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution and Migration, which was held at Santa Cruz, Bolivia, in January 1993 as part of the preparatory activities for the International Conference on Population and Development, was issued as a working paper (ESA/P/WP.126), pending the publication of the final version. 19. The data bank on levels and trends of international migration is being continually updated and a database on South-to-North migration flows is in preparation. As already reported, databases on international migrant stock for Africa, Asia and Latin America are being disseminated on diskette together with a brochure for each region. For each of the countries in a region with available data, the respective database contains the foreign-born population enumerated by its censuses and classified by country of birth, sex and age. On the basis of such data, estimates of the number of foreign-born persons in each country of the world as of 1965, 1975 and 1985 have been derived. The full set of estimates is available on diskette, under the title Trends in Total Migrant Stock, together with an accompanying brochure. 20. A study on levels and trends of international migration, with particular emphasis on gender issues, is being carried out. The estimates of trends in the total migrant stock at the world and regional levels will be included in the report. In addition, a regional approach will be used in discussing major international migration flows. Work is currently focusing on the assessment of international migration trends in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. The report is expected to be completed by the end of 1995. 21. The proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on International Migration Policies and the Status of Female Migrants, which was held at San Miniato, Italy, in March 1990, have been submitted for publication. F. Internal migration 22. The proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution and Migration, which was carried out as part of the preparatory activities for the International Conference on Population and Development, include several chapters on population distribution and internal migration. 23. Data from the 1990 round of censuses are being compiled to serve as a basis for the estimation of the components of urban growth since 1970. Since work on that issue is only starting, an output is not expected during the current biennium. II. WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS A. World population estimates and projections: 1994 and 1996 revisions 1. The 1994 revision 24. On 27 July 1994, the Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis informed the Secretary-General that the 1994 revision of the United Nations world population estimates and projections had been completed. At that time, the results of the revision were made available, through advance copies of the annex tables and other special documentation, throughout the United Nations system and among major non-governmental users. 25. The 1994 revision was challenged by many special events in the political, economic and social spheres that had taken place during the past two years. Full sets of population estimates and projections are included for all the newly independent States of Africa, Asia and Europe, namely, Eritrea (with corresponding adjustments for Ethiopia), Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Republic of Moldova, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia (i.e., Serbia and Montenegro). 26. The 1994 revision incorporated the demographic impact of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the population estimates and projections for the 16 developing countries whose adult human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroprevalence level had reached 1 per cent in 1992. These countries are Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, the Central African Republic, the Congo, C“te d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania, Zaire, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Thailand. 27. Estimates and projections of international migration were revised heavily in the 1994 revision for a large number of countries in order to accommodate the continuing extensive migratory movements within Europe and elsewhere, and the rapid growth in the number of refugees in Africa and elsewhere. 28. A number of improvements and innovations have been made in the 1994 revision. The projection horizon was extended to 2050, so that a full century of demographic history and projection (1950-2050) is now presented. The 1994 revision continues the process of lowering the minimum-size criterion: sex and age-specific projections are now undertaken for countries with a minimum population size of 150,000 persons in 1990. This change meant that population figures by sex and age, and the full range of demographic variables, are available for the first time for five additional countries, namely, Belize, the Netherlands Antilles, New Caledonia, Samoa and Vanuatu. Estimates and projections of population size and growth are available for countries with smaller populations. 29. All programmed outputs from the 1994 revision have either been published or are awaiting publication. The United Nations wall chart World Population, 1994, 8/ was issued in August 1994. For countries, regions and major areas, the wall chart presents estimated and projected populations for 1994, 2015 and 2050; crude birth and death rates, annual population growth rate, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and infant mortality rate for 1990-1995; percentage of the population in 1994 under ages 15 and 65 or older; and population density in 1994. The publication entitled The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Populations: The 1994 Revision 9/ was issued in December 1994. It provides estimated and projected populations (medium-, high- and low-fertility variants) for the period 1950-2050, by sex and age, for countries, regions and major areas. 30. The major report of the 1994 revision, World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision, 10/ has been completed and is in press. Along with the comprehensive set of annex tables, which have been enlarged to include the extended projection horizon and the newly independent countries, the publication contains an extensive analysis of recent demographic events and trends. Part one of the volume features findings of special interest and importance at the present time. Chapter I, entitled "New and renewed fertility declines in the less developed regions", describes fertility declines that have begun in a number of African and Asian countries where fertility levels had for decades remained very high and constant. Chapter II covers "The demography of countries with economies in transition", and describes recent changes in population size, mortality, fertility and international migration for 27 European countries that have been moving from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. Chapter III is on HIV/AIDS and its demographic impact. This chapter is an updated version of an earlier study undertaken in the context of the 1992 revision; however, the current work is expanded for the 1994 revision to include Thailand and to provide analyses of the impact of AIDS on orphanhood, years of working life and years of reproductive life. Part two of the volume covers an overview of world trends, including population size and growth, mortality, fertility and international migration. This is the first time that the World Population Prospects series has contained an analysis of international migration levels. Part three of the volume covers technical aspects of the 1994 revision, namely: (a) a detailed study of differences in country estimates and projections between the 1994 and the 1992 revisions; (b) a chapter on the methodology of the 1994 revision; and (c) a chapter providing sources of data and demographic methods used for preparing the baseline figures for population, mortality, fertility and international migration for each country. 31. Databases of results from the 1994 revision are available on magnetic tape and on diskette for microcomputers. The magnetic tape World Population, 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) was issued in August 1994. It contains demographic estimates for 1950-1990 and four variants of projections for 1990-2050 for countries, regions and major areas of the world. Most data are presented quinquennially. However, population data by age and sex for the medium variant and total population figures for all variants are presented annually. Population estimates and projections have been prepared by sex and five-year age groups, and for 27 major demographic indicators. 32. Databases for IBM microcomputers became available during October- November 1994. The database Demographic Indicators, 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) contains selected demographic indicators for all countries, regions and major areas of the world. Quinquennial estimates are presented for the period 1950-1990 and the medium-, high- and low-variant projections are presented for 1990-2050. Sixteen demographic indicators are given: total populations for males, females and both sexes combined; population density; female population aged 15-49; population under age 15; population aged 15-64; population aged 65 or over; average annual rate of population growth; crude birth and death rates; total fertility rate; life expectancies at birth for males, females and both sexes combined; and infant mortality rate. The database Age Patterns of Fertility, 1990-1995 (The 1994 Revision) contains estimates of age-specific fertility rates and births by age of mother for all countries, regions and major areas of the world. Data are for the period 1990-1995 from the United Nations medium-variant projections. The database Sex and Age Quinquennial 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) contains population by sex and age for countries, regions and major areas. Quinquennial estimates are presented for the period 1950-1990 and the medium-, high- and low-variant projections are presented for 1990-2050. 33. The above databases provide quinquennial population estimates and projections, that is, for 1950, 1955, 1960 etc. Two additional databases were created that provide annual figures. The database Annual Populations, 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) provides annual estimates and projections of total population for countries, regions and major areas of the world. Estimates are provided for the period 1950-1990 and the medium-, high- and low-variant projections are presented for 1990-2050. The database Sex and Age Annual, 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) provides annual estimates and projections of population by sex and age for countries, regions and major areas of the world. Estimates are provided for the period 1950-1990 and the medium-variant projections are presented for 1990-2050. 2. The 1996 revision 34. Work on the 1996 revision of global population estimates and projections began in December 1994 and will continue through 1995 and 1996. B. Urban, rural and city population estimates and projections: 1994 and 1996 revisions 1. The 1994 revision 35. The 1994 revision of population estimates and projections of urban and rural populations, including large urban agglomerations, was completed in November 1994. The results were made available, through advance copies of the annex tables and other special documentation, throughout the United Nations system and among major non-governmental users. Population estimates and projections were provided for urban and rural areas for all countries, regions and major areas for the period 1950-2025. Population estimates and projections were also provided for the 370 urban agglomerations of 750,000 or more persons in 1990. Population estimates and projections for urban agglomerations were provided for the period 1950-2015. This represents a further extension of the projection horizon to 2015 (from 2000 in the 1990 revision and 2010 in the 1992 revision). 36. The 1994 revision of urban, rural and city population estimates and projections also responded to the emergence of many newly independent countries during the past two years. In addition, full sets of population estimates and projections have been included for all the newly independent States of Africa, Asia and Europe, namely, Eritrea (with corresponding adjustments for Ethiopia), Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Republic of Moldova, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia (i.e., Serbia and Montenegro). 37. All programmed outputs from the 1994 revision have either been published or are awaiting publication. The United Nations wall chart Urban Agglomerations, 1994 11/ was issued in December 1994. The wall chart provides population data for all urban agglomerations of 1 million or more persons in 1994. For each urban agglomeration, the chart exhibits estimated population and projected population sizes in 1994 and 2015; their population growth rates for 1990-1995 and 2010-2015; percentage growth between 1975 and 1995 and between 1995 and 2015; size ranking in 1994 and 2015; and the percentage of national and urban populations residing in that agglomeration in 1994. 38. A second wall chart, entitled Urban and Rural Areas, 1994 12/ has also been completed and submitted for publication. For every country, the wall chart provides estimated and projected urban and rural population sizes in 1994 and 2025; urban and rural population growth rates for 1990-1995; the population of each country's largest urban agglomeration; and the percentage of urban population residing in that agglomeration. 39. The major report of this exercise, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1994 Revision, has been completed and is in its final stage of publication. The report includes population estimates and projections of urban and rural populations for all countries of the world and related indicators of their growth; population estimates and projections of all urban agglomerations of population size 750,000 or more in 1990 and the percentage of total and urban populations residing in those agglomerations; population estimates of capital cities of all countries; and the distribution of urban population by city-size class for the world regions and major areas. Along with these detailed country- specific tables, the publication contains an extensive analysis of urban, rural and city population growth. A chapter on the world's cities explores the dynamics of growth of the largest urban agglomerations of the world, particularly its mega-cities; the phenomenon of counter-urbanization; and urban population and size class. A chapter on urban and rural population size and growth discusses the level of urbanization among countries and regions; the size, distribution and growth of urban populations; rural population size and growth, including the situation of a number of developing countries that find themselves in the position of having to absorb large rural populations while undergoing rapid urbanization because of an extremely large population base in rural areas. The volume also contains a country-by-country compendium of sources of data, concepts and adjustments for the baseline urban, rural and city population figures. 40. The results of the 1994 revision of urban, rural and city population estimates and projections were also distributed on microcomputer diskettes in December 1994. The database Urban and Rural Areas, 1950-2025 (The 1994 Revision) provides (for each country, region and major area) estimated and projected urban, rural and total populations and their rates of growth; percentage of population residing in urban areas; and growth rate of percentage urban and percentage rural. The database, Urban Agglomerations, 1950-2015 (The 1994 Revision), provides populations of urban agglomerations (with population size of 750,000 or more) and their rates of growth; and percentage of national and urban populations residing in the urban agglomeration. Data are presented quinquennially, from 1950 to 2025 for urban and rural areas and from 1950 to 2015 for urban agglomerations. 2. The 1996 revision 41. Planning for the 1996 revision of urban, rural and city population estimates and projections began in December 1994. C. Subcommittee on Demographic Estimates and Projections 42. The eighteenth session of the Subcommittee on Demographic Estimates and Projections of the Administrative Committee on Coordination (ACC) was held at United Nations Headquarters from 28 to 30 June 1994. At that session, the Subcommittee successfully arranged a schedule for coordination and dissemination of the 1994 rounds of consistent demographic and sectoral estimates and projections, undertaken by the Population Division in cooperation with the regional commissions (for population and demographic estimates and projections), the International Labour Organization (for labour force estimates and projections), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (for agriculture population estimates and projections) and the United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (Habitat) (for household estimates and projections). The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization was unable to participate in the 1994 rounds owing to severe resource constraints. Arrangements were made for the timely provision of the results of those estimates and projections to other United Nations agencies, units and organizations participating in the Subcommittee. The Subcommittee also discussed arrangements for coordination of the 1996 rounds and agreed on a tentative schedule of work. 43. The report of the Subcommittee on its eighteenth session (ACC/1994/22) was issued in August 1994. The ACC Consultative Committee on Programme and Operational Questions (CCPOQ) reviewed the report at its October 1994 session. The nineteenth session of the Subcommittee will be convened at the headquarters of the World Health Organization in June 1996. III. POPULATION POLICY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT A. Comparative study of new population policy issues at the global level 44. In 1994, a project entitled "International migration policies and programmes: a world survey" was initiated with the financial assistance of UNFPA. The goal of the project is to publish an analytical survey report on the major trends in the area of international migration policy and on emerging policy issues of particular concern to Governments. The project also aims to systematically collect information on government policies in regard to the flow of immigrants and emigrants, migrant workers and their dependants, refugees and asylum-seekers and undocumented migrants, which will be presented in a wall chart on international migration policies. 45. During 1994, research concerning policy issues resulting from rapid population growth in the world's largest cities continued. The Challenge of Urbanization: the World's Large Cities, containing profiles of more than 100 of the world's largest agglomerations, has been completed with the financial assistance of UNFPA and is now ready for final processing. B. National population policies 46. In 1994, work on a publication entitled World Population Policies was initiated. The project will consist of country-by-country profiles on new and emerging issues in the area of population policy, particularly in regard to women's reproductive health. The first volume will cover Afghanistan to France. 47. The publication Abortion Policies: A Global Review, volume III, Oman to Zimbabwe, was completed with the financial assistance of UNFPA and is currently awaiting final processing. As part of the project on abortion policies, a wall chart entitled Abortion Policies, 1994, 13/ summarizing the major findings in volumes I to III of the publication, was completed and issued during 1994. The wall chart will also be available in Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian and Spanish. C. Population policy data bank 48. The population policy data bank maintained by the Population Division has been expanded and strengthened. In 1994, the fourth edition of the population policy database Global Population Policy DataBase, 1993 (GRIPP:1993) 14/ was completed. A companion volume, Population Policy Diskette Documentation, 1993, 15/ was also completed. 49. Replies to the Seventh United Nations Population Inquiry among Governments were analysed and coded and a report was completed during 1994. D. Assessing the demographic consequences of major development projects 50. An overview report on three case-studies (Costa Rica, India and Morocco) has been issued as a working paper (ESA/P/WP.129). E. Proceedings of the International Conference on Ageing Populations in the Context of the Family 51. The proceedings of the International Conference on Ageing Populations in the Context of the Family, held at Kitakyushu, Japan, in 1990 have been published. 16/ F. Proceedings of the United Nations Round Table on the Ageing of Asian Populations 52. The proceedings of the United Nations Round Table on the Ageing of Asian Populations, which was held in Bangkok in 1992, have been published. 17/ G. Proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on Population, Environment and Development 53. The proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on Population, Environment and Development, held in New York in 1992 as part of the preparations for the International Conference on Population and Development, have been published. 18/ H. Proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on Population Growth and Demographic Structure 54. The preliminary version of the proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on Population Growth and Demographic Structure, which was convened in Paris in 1992 as part of the preparations for the International Conference on Population and Development, has been issued as a working paper (ESA/P/WP.128) pending the publication of the official version. I. Population and the environment: setting the research agenda 55. The Population Division completed a project, carried out with the financial support of UNFPA, aimed at investigating the current state of knowledge regarding the relationship between population and the environment in developing countries. A report which included a bibliography, a literature survey of current research and a proposed research agenda has been issued as a working paper (ESA/P/WP.123). J. Population pressure, land use and the environment: national trends 56. The Population Division has revised version 2.0 of the database for population and research (PRED Bank). The focus of PRED Bank 2.0 is on the interrelationship between population pressure and land use in rural areas. PRED Bank 2.0 has been designed as a POPMAP application, an information system for microcomputers that combines database, spreadsheet and geographical mapping facilities. PRED Bank 2.0 contains national data on approximately 70 relevant variables for the period 1961-1989 for 116 developing countries. PRED Bank is currently available on diskette with a user's guide. A report entitled "Population pressure, land use and the environment: national trends" is currently being finalized. K. Governments' views on the relationship between population and the environment 57. A report on Governments' views on the relationship between population and the environment within the context of development has been completed and submitted for publication. Governments' perceptions have been compiled from national reports to and statements at global and regional conferences on population and the environment. The report also includes an overview of the positions held by the Governments of eight selected countries. IV. MONITORING, REVIEW AND APPRAISAL, COORDINATION AND DISSEMINATION OF POPULATION INFORMATION A. Monitoring of population trends and policies 58. The eighth round of the monitoring of world population trends and policies was completed in 1994 and the report entitled World Population Monitoring, 1993 is in press. A concise version for the more general reader, entitled Concise Report on the World Population Situation in 1993, with a Special Emphasis on Refugees, will be published in 1995. B. Substantive servicing of the Preparatory Committee for the International Conference on Population and Development at its third session 59. For the third session of the Preparatory Committee for the International Conference on Population and Development, held in New York from 4 to 22 April 1994, the Population Division was the focal point for the preparation and/or submission of the following documents, in consultation with UNFPA: (a) Provisional agenda (A/CONF.171/PC/1). The agenda, prepared by the Population Division in consultation with UNFPA, included the following items: adoption of the agenda and other organizational matters; accreditation of non-governmental organizations to the Conference and its preparatory process; preparations for the Conference; provisional rules of procedure of the Conference; review and appraisal of progress made towards the implementation of the World Population Plan of Action; national reports of countries on their population situation, policies and programmes; draft final document of the Conference; and provisional agenda and proposed organization of work of the Conference; (b) Progress report on the preparations for the International Conference on Population and Development: report of the Secretary-General of the Conference (A/CONF.171/PC/2). This report, prepared by UNFPA, supplemented the two previous reports of the Secretary-General of the Conference to the Economic and Social Council and to the General Assembly at its forty-eighth session on the progress made in all aspects of the preparatory activities of the Conference; (c) Fourth review and appraisal of the World Population Plan of Action: report of the Secretary-General (A/CONF.171/PC/3). Focusing on 30 selected population issues, the report, prepared by the Population Division, provided the fourth quinquennial overall assessment of the level of implementation of the World Population Plan of Action and appropriate background information on population trends and policies that would help facilitate the deliberations at the International Conference on Population and Development. The report also provided important input in the preparation of the draft Programme of Action of the Conference; (d) Status of the national reports exercise: report of the Secretary- General of the Conference (A/CONF.171/PC/4). Among the preparatory activities for the International Conference on Population and Development at the national level was the preparation by each participating country of a national report describing the population situation, policies and programmes of the country concerned, as well as the steps required to reach population goals in each country. The document, which was prepared by UNFPA, was a report on progress made in the conduct of the national reports exercise and the preliminary findings of the Conference secretariat; (e) Draft programme of action of the Conference: note by the Secretary- General (A/CONF.171/PC/5). The document, prepared jointly by the Population Division and UNFPA, contained the draft final document of the Conference, provisionally referred to as the draft programme of action of the Conference, taking into account the views expressed by participants during the second session of the Preparatory Committee and the forty-eighth session of the General Assembly; (f) Additional non-governmental organizations proposed for accreditation to the International Conference on Population and Development and its preparatory process: note by the Secretariat (A/CONF.171/PC/6 and Add.1-5). The document, prepared by UNFPA, provided the necessary information on additional non-governmental organizations that had requested accreditation to the Conference and its preparatory process, each of which had been evaluated by the secretariat of the Conference in accordance with the provisions of Council resolution 1993/4 and had been found to have complied with the criteria set forth in that resolution; (g) Synthesis of the regional meetings or conferences convened as part of the substantive preparations for the Conference: report of the Secretary- General of the Conference (A/CONF.171/PC/7 and Add.1). The two reports, prepared by UNFPA in consultation with the Population Division, provided a synthesis of the results of the regional conferences (A/CONF.171/PC/7) and of the subregional meetings and conferences (A/CONF.171/PC/7/Add.1) that were convened as part of the preparations for the Conference, as requested in General Assembly resolution 48/186; (h) Draft rules of procedure of the Conference: note by the Secretariat (A/CONF.171/PC/8). The document presented the revised draft rules of procedure of the Conference, which took into account the discussion of the Preparatory Committee at its first and second sessions and the decision of the General Assembly, in its resolution 48/186, that the Preparatory Committee for the Conference should become a subsidiary body of the General Assembly; (i) Proposed organization of work of the Preparatory Committee: note by the secretariat of the Conference (A/CONF.171/PC/L.1). The document, prepared by the Population Division in consultation with UNFPA, contained the draft organization of work for the third session of the Preparatory Committee for the purpose of facilitating the Preparatory Committee's consideration of the items on the agenda for the session within the time and conference services allocated to it; (j) Draft provisional agenda, proposed programme of work and other organizational matters of the Conference: note by the Secretariat (A/CONF.171/PC/L.2). The document, prepared by the Population Division in consultation with UNFPA, presented the draft provisional agenda, proposed programme of work and other organizational matters of the Conference. C. Substantive preparations and servicing of the International Conference on Population and Development 60. The Population Division, in consultation with UNFPA, was the focal point for the preparation and/or submission of the following Conference documentation: (a) Provisional agenda (A/CONF.171/1). The agenda, as approved by the Preparatory Committee for the Conference at its third session, included the following items: opening of the Conference; election of the President; adoption of the rules of procedure; adoption of the agenda; election of officers other than the President; organization of work, including the establishment of the Main Committee of the Conference; credentials of representatives to the Conference; experiences concerning population and development strategies and programmes; Programme of Action of the Conference; other matters; and adoption of the report of the Conference; (b) Provisional rules of procedure: note by the Secretariat (A/CONF.171/2). The document contained the provisional rules of procedure for the Conference, as approved by the Preparatory Committee for the Conference at its third session and by the General Assembly in its decision 48/490 of 14 July 1994; (c) Organizational and procedural matters: note by the Secretariat (A/CONF.171/3). The document, prepared by the Population Division, contained proposals of the Preparatory Committee for the Conference on: pre-Conference consultations, election of officers, adoption of the rules of procedure and of the agenda; organization of work, including the allocation of agenda items, general debate, establishment of the Main Committee of the Conference, timetable for the work of the Conference and organization of meetings; credentials of representatives of the Conference and appointment of the members of the Credentials Committee; and report of the Conference; (d) Fourth review and appraisal of the World Population Plan of Action: report of the Secretary-General (A/CONF.171/4). Prepared by the Population Division, this document was a revised version of the report presented to the Preparatory Committee for the Conference at its third session (A/CONF.171/PC/3); (e) Overview of the national reports prepared by countries for the Conference: report of the Secretary-General of the Conference (A/CONF.171/5). The document, prepared by UNFPA, gave an overview of the national reports that were submitted by countries as part of the preparatory activities for the Conference; (f) List of non-governmental organizations recommended for accreditation to the Conference: note by the Secretariat (A/CONF.171/7 and Add.1). The document, prepared by UNFPA, provided the necessary information on additional non-governmental organizations that had requested accreditation to the Conference; each of those organizations was evaluated by the secretariat of the Conference in accordance with the provisions of Council resolution 1993/4 and found to have complied with the criteria set forth in that resolution; (g) Participation of intergovernmental organizations in the work of the International Conference on Population and Development (A/CONF.171/8). The document, prepared by UNFPA, listed the additional intergovernmental organizations that had requested to participate in the work of the Conference; the secretariat of the Conference, having reviewed the credentials of those organizations, recommended that they be granted observer status; (h) Draft programme of action of the Conference: note by the Secretariat (A/CONF.171/L.1). The document, prepared jointly by the Population Division and UNFPA, contained the draft programme of action of the Conference, as approved by the Preparatory Committee for the Conference at its third session; (i) Information for participants (A/CONF.171/INF/1). The document, prepared by the Population Division, provided information on: site of the Conference; pre-Conference consultations; opening of the Conference; registration of participants and identification cards; programme of meetings; seating arrangements; languages of the Conference; interpretation services; circulation of prepared statements; distribution of official documents; receipt and circulation of other documents; press centre; and such other useful information as reception on arrival at the Cairo airport, visas required, necessary inoculation, declaration of valuables at customs, transportation from hotels to the Cairo International Conference Centre, Conference newspapers and related reporting, currency/cheques and credit cards accepted, electricity, climate, and services available at the Conference Centre and the Population Information Network (POPIN) reference centre; (j) Report of the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 5-13 September 1994 (A/CONF.171/13 and Add.1. The main document (A/CONF.171/13), prepared jointly by the Population Division and UNFPA and consolidated by the Division for Policy Coordination and Economic and Social Council Affairs of the Department for Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development, contained the resolutions of the Conference, attendance and organization of work of the Conference, general debate, report of the Main Committee, report of the Credentials Committee and the Programme of Action adopted by the Conference. The addendum contained the list of documents, opening and closing statements, and parallel and associated activities. D. Coordination and dissemination of population information 1. Population Information Network 61. One year after the reinstatement of the global Population Information Network (POPIN) Coordinating Unit, the Network has expanded to include regional networks of population institutions in Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa and Northern America. Plans are also under way for the establishment of population information networks in Europe and Western Asia. 62. During this period of rapid expansion, POPIN has used electronic mail and the Internet to promote and facilitate communication among the regional networks and with the global POPIN Coordinating Unit, and to promote a global dialogue on population information topics. POPIN also established an electronic information service on the Internet, known as the POPIN Gopher. The POPIN Gopher is located inside the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Gopher system and is an international computerized collection of documents, bibliographic and demographic data banks, newsletters, statistical tables and other population resources of interest to Governments, non-governmental organizations and others in the worldwide population community. The Gopher service is free of charge to users of electronic mail or the Internet. 63. POPIN's use of new communication and information technologies has had a profound impact on the management and functioning of the Network and has significantly affected the ways in which population information can be disseminated and obtained worldwide. Most notably, the creation of the POPIN Gopher and the use of other electronic information services has enabled a dramatic expansion of POPIN's dissemination activities to the population community and the wider world audience. These audiences include the Permanent Missions to the United Nations, the United Nations regional commissions and agencies, Governments, researchers, and students and faculties of universities throughout the world. 64. The popularity of the new Gopher service was illustrated by its heavy use during the International Conference on Population and Development, where POPIN established a Reference and Communication Centre to collect, scan and disseminate statements presented to the plenary sessions of the Conference. Technical support for this operation was provided by UNDP, the Information and Decision Support Centre of the Egyptian Cabinet and the Association for Progressive Communication. Scanned materials (in print and electronic format) were made available free of charge at three locations in Cairo. Outside Cairo, users of electronic mail or the Internet could get access to Conference documents through the POPIN Gopher in New York. In all, over 28,000 people from all geographical areas used the Gopher during the eight-day Conference. 65. From 31 August to 1 September 1994, POPIN also held a meeting, in Cairo, of the POPIN Coordinating Committee. The meeting was convened by the Population Division with financial support from UNFPA and the regional commissions. The purpose of the meeting was to review progress on POPIN activities at the regional and global levels; to promote coordination of information activities in various regions; and to draft recommendations for POPIN activities and on the role of the global POPIN Coordinating Unit in 1995 and beyond. 66. Recommended actions included the drafting of a long-term strategy for POPIN as a whole for presentation to the POPIN Advisory Committee at its meeting in 1995. It was envisaged that a long-term strategy would provide a population information plan of action at the global, regional, subregional and national levels and a blueprint for how population information networks can best utilize modern information and telecommunications technologies. The strategy will define POPIN's role with respect to UNFPA Country Support Teams and field offices. 67. On the role of the global POPIN Coordinating Unit vis-…-vis the regional networks, the Coordinating Committee recommended that the global POPIN Coordinating Unit continue to provide technical support to the regional POPINs by maintaining, updating and expanding the scope of the POPIN Gopher. It was also recommended that POPIN promote international networking and the use of advanced information technologies as called for in the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development and the regional programmes of action. Given the lack of adequate funding for network functioning and the continuing need for technical assistance, it was recommended that the global Coordinating Unit seek funds for activities at all levels of the Network and continue to assist in the reformulation and revitalization of population information activities in each region. 68. With respect to future directions, POPIN's primary objective, to increase awareness, knowledge and understanding of population-related issues at all levels of society, is consistent with the recommendations of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development. In particular, the global POPIN Coordinating Unit and the regional Population Information Networks are working towards harnessing the tremendous potential of print, audiovisual and electronic media, including databases and networks, to disseminate technical information and to promote and strengthen understanding of relationships between population, consumption, production and sustainable development. It is expected that the Network's use of new electronic information technologies will greatly increase the availability of population information in all geographical regions and for all segments of the population community. 69. In view of the endorsement of population information activities in the Programme of Action, POPIN will need to continue to strengthen and expand its efforts in the area of information dissemination so as to facilitate equitable access to population information for all audiences and to support the implementation of the Programme of Action and other population activities. Further staffing will be required to carry out population information activities proposed for the biennium 1996-1997 and to ensure the continuation and expansion of work done in the first phase of the POPIN project. 2. Publication and dissemination of research studies 70. The Population Division continues to publish the results of its research studies in a variety of formats to meet the needs of different audiences. They are widely disseminated to Governments, national and international organizations, research and educational institutions, individuals engaged in social and economic planning, research and training, and to the general public. It also continues to develop and maintain databases and software, which are made available on magnetic tape and/or diskette(s). A list of the Population Division's publications and other material issued since the twenty-seventh session of the Population Commission, as well as its databases and software, is given in the annex to the present report. V. TECHNICAL COOPERATION 71. During 1994, technical assistance services continued to be provided to an average of more than 80 projects in 45 developing countries in Africa, Asia, Western Asia, Latin America and Europe in population and development training; institutionalizing analysis and research on socio-economic and demographic data obtained from population censuses, surveys and vital registration systems; population policy; and population and development. Recruitment of five population specialists to be provided to the Population Division by UNFPA under the new Technical Support Services (TSS) arrangements was finalized during 1994, the last one as of 1 January 1995. Through these five specialists in the areas of demographic analysis, population and development, population policy, fertility and family planning, and teaching and training in demography, augmented whenever possible and as required by other staff of the Population Division, substantive support has started to be provided to the eight Country Support Teams established by UNFPA as the vanguard of technical support to UNFPA-funded country-, regional- and interregional-level projects in the population area. Preparations are under way for two expert group meetings to be held in 1995: a workshop on population data collection and analysis, and a symposium on technical cooperation in population. Notes 1/ Report of the United Nations World Population Conference, 1974, Bucharest, 19-30 August 1974 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.74.XIII.3), chap. I. 2/ See Report of the International Conference on Population, 1984, Mexico City, 6-14 August 1984 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.84.XIII.8 and corrigenda). 3/ Report of the World Conference to Review and Appraise the Achievements of the United Nations Decade for Women: Equality, Development and Peace, Nairobi, 15-26 July 1985 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.85.IV.10), chap. I, sect. A. 4/ United Nations publication, Sales No. E.90.XVII.3. 5/ United Nations publication, Sales No. E.92.XIII.11. 6/ World Contraceptive Use, 1994 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.94.XIII.15). 7/ United Nations publication, Sales No. E.89.XIII.4. 8/ United Nations publication, Sales No. E.94.XIII.14. 9/ United Nations publication, Sales No. E.95.XIII.2. 10/ United Nations publication, forthcoming. 11/ United Nations publication, Sales No. E.95.XIII.4. 12/ United Nations publication, forthcoming. 13/ United Nations publication, Sales No. E.94.XIII.8. 14/ ST/ESA/SER.R/138. 15/ ST/ESA/SER.R/139. 16/ Ageing and the Family: Proceedings of the United Nations International Conference on Ageing Populations in the Context of the Family, Kitakyushu, Japan, 15-19 October 1990 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.94.XIII.4). 17/ Ageing of Asian Populations: Proceedings of the United Nations Round Table on the Ageing of Asian Populations, Bangkok, 4-6 May 1992 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.94.XIII.10). 18/ Population, Environment and Development: Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population, Environment and Development, United Nations Headquarters, 20-24 January 1992 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.94.XIII.7). Annex PUBLICATIONS AND OTHER MATERIAL ISSUED IN 1994 BY THE POPULATION DIVISION, AND THE SOFTWARE AND DATABASES MAINTAINED BY IT Research studies AIDS and the Demography of Africa. ST/ESA/SER.A/137. Sales No. E.94.XIII.11. The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Populations: The 1994 Revision. ST/ESA/SER.A/144. Sales No. E.95.XIII.2. The Health Rationale for Family Planning: Timing of Births and Child Survival. ST/ESA/SER.A/141. Available in English only. Sales No. E.95.XIII.3. Proceedings of expert group meetings, seminars and workshops Population, Environment and Development: Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population, Environment and Development, United Nations Headquarters, 20-24 January 1992. ST/ESA/SER.R/129. Sales No. E.94.XIII.7. Ageing and the Family: Proceedings of the United Nations International Conference on Ageing Populations in the Context of the Family, Kitakyushu, Japan, 15-19 October 1990. ST/ESA/SER.R/124. Sales No. E.94.XIII.4. Ageing of Asian Populations: Proceedings of the United Nations Round Table on the Ageing of Asian Populations, Bangkok, 4-6 May 1992. ST/ESA/SER.R/125. Sales No. E.94.XIII.10. Wall charts World Population, 1994. Sales No. E.94.XIII.14. Urban Agglomerations, 1994. Sales No. E.95.XIII.4. World Contraceptive Use, 1994. Sales No. E.94.XIII.15. Abortion Policies, 1994. Sales No. E.94.XIII.8. Periodicals Population Bulletin of the United Nations No. 36. Sales No. E.94.XIII.12. Articles on: international migration and development (Georges Photios Tapinos); Europe without internal frontiers and international migration (Bela Hovy and Hania Zlotnik); a study of maternity histories in a rural area of Senegal (Niakhar) (Michel Garenne); recent trends in contraceptive use (Mary Beth Weinberger); a decade of change in contraceptive behaviour in Latin America, a multivariate decomposition analysis (Teresa Castro Martin and Wamucii Njogu). No. 37/38. Sales No. E.94.XIII.16. A special issue on the five regional population conferences and meetings convened as part of the substantive preparations for the International Conference on Population and Development. Population Newsletter Issued biannually to provide a wide readership information on the programme activities of the Population Division; action taken by legislative bodies with competence in the population field; and meetings on population and related issues organized by the Population Division and other United Nations organizations; recent and forthcoming publications of the Population Division. Databases and software World Population, 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) Demographic Indicators, 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) Age Patterns of Fertility, 1950-1995 (The 1994 Revision) Sex and Age Quinquennial, 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) Sex and Age Annual, 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) Annual Populations, 1950-2050 (The 1994 Revision) Urban and Rural Areas, 1950-2025 (The 1994 Revision) Urban Agglomerations, 1950-2015 (The 1994 Revision) GRIPP: 1993 (Global Review and Inventory of Population Policies: 1993) This document has been posted online by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). Reproduction and dissemination of the document - in electronic and/or printed format - is encouraged, provided acknowledgement is made of the role of the United Nations in making it available. Date last updated: 23 January 2001 by esa@un.org |