New Flu Pandemic Could Kill 81 Million

“A flu virus as deadly as the one that caused the 1918 Spanish flu could kill as many as 81 million worldwide if it struck today, a new study estimates. By applying historical death rates to modern population data, the researchers calculated a death toll of 51 million to 81 million, with a median estimate of 62 million. That's surprisingly high, said lead researcher Chris Murray of Harvard University. He did the analysis, in part, because he thought prior claims of 50 million deaths were wildly inflated. The new work is published in Saturday's issue of the journal The Lancet.” [Associated Press Newswires/Factiva]

The analysis, the first of its kind, found a nearly 40-fold difference in death rates between central India, the place with the highest recorded mortality, and Denmark, the country with the lowest. The reason for the huge variation is not known, but it may reflect differences in nutrition and crowding. One of the World Health Organization's key influenza experts, however, called the main public health implication of the study ‘no surprise.’ ‘The countries most likely to be adversely affected are the ones with the least resources. This happened then, and is what is likely to happen now,’ said Keiji Fukuda. ‘WHO, as it always has done, pays a disproportionate amount of its attention and efforts toward such countries.’ [The Washington Post]

“The vast majority of deaths -- 96 percent -- would occur in the developing world. The study is based on death registration data to estimate deaths from the 1918-20 pandemic in 27 countries. This data was then extrapolated to the worldwide population of 2004. But it also takes into account gains in prosperity and access to medical care since 1918, as well as countries' changes in the size and age of their populations. ‘The predicted mortality for sub-Saharan Africa, though, is probably quite similar to what it was in 1918 because there hasn't been that big a change in per-capita income,’ Murray said. But, he said, ‘We saw a strong relationship between mortality and income in 1918-20, and it was such a strong relationship that there's nothing to suggest that also won't hold true if something like that happened again.’” [Agence France Presse/Factiva]

In other news, “Asian countries scrambled Friday to limit the spread of bird flu following a fresh outbreak among poultry in South Korea, as health officials remained uncertain over whether human deaths from bird flu in Indonesia have permanently dropped. South Korean quarantine officials killed 15,000 poultry on a duck farm after the fourth bird flu outbreak in less than a month. The Agriculture Ministry confirmed that the outbreak at the farm in Asan, about 92 kilometers south of Seoul, was of the H5 strain but said they still needed further tests to determine whether it was the deadly N1 type.” [Dow Jones International News/Factiva]

“Vietnam has ordered a mass slaughter of chickens and ducks in two Mekong Delta provinces where bird flu outbreaks were confirmed this week, officials said on Friday. A total of 250 ducks were found dead in two communes in Ca Mau and Bac Lieu provinces where nearly 8,400 chickens and ducklings have been killed by the H5N1 virus or slaughtered to stop it spreading, the Agriculture Ministry said.” [Reuters News/Factiva]

U.N. deputy for tsunami recovery defends rebuilding efforts despite growing criticism of squandered donations

“The U.N. deputy envoy for recovery from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami defended the efforts of aid workers to rebuild battered countries despite growing criticism that much of the US$14 billion (euro10.6 billion) in aid donations has been spent poorly. "I think one can be encouraged by the progress that has taken place without being ignorant or wanting to ignore the overwhelming challenges ahead," Eric Schwartz said … "As much as we want to credit the progress that has taken place, not for a minute do I want to suggest that the challenges ahead aren't daunting," he said.

Schwartz, who presented a report ["Lessons Learned from Tsunami Recovery"] issued by former U.S. President Bill Clinton … acknowledged the effort has been a continual "work in progress."

The report … outlines 10 areas of disaster relief that require special attention, such as the importance of dialogue with families and community leaders at the local level.” [Associated Press Newswires/Factiva]

“James Ensor, acting executive director of Oxfam Australia, says his organisation had always planned to spend its money over four years, not all at once.

Having spent 63 per cent over two years means targets are being met, he says.

But relief programs have been stymied by all manner of hitches, from civil war to loss of land records. "In Sri Lanka, the resumption of the civil war made it impossible there to responsibly send staff into some tsunami affected areas," says Ensor.

Records of land ownership and land titles were destroyed. "There was a resultant contest for land ownership between groups."

"Not only did you have everything wiped out on the surface in a large percentage of the coastal areas, you had many people die (167,000), so you didn't have the knowledge of individuals to tell you who owned what," says Frost, manager of World Vision Australia's tsunami working group which had 2000 staff on the ground at the height of the response.” [Herald Sun/Factiva]

“Residents of Indonesia's tsunami-hit Aceh province say the state agency in charge of reconstruction has done a better job this year than last but progress remained slow, according to a poll released on Friday.

Sixty percent of 809 people polled by the Indonesian Survey Institute said the reconstruction agency, BRR, performed well this year, compared to 38 percent last year. The poll also found that 31 percent believe BRR was transparent, compared to 18 percent who thought so last year.

Heru Prasetyo, a BRR director for donor relations, said on Tuesday that efforts to provide housing for the survivors still faced obstacles two years after the disaster. ‘At least 57,000 permanent houses of 128,000 required for tsunami survivors have been built but many have not been occupied,’ he said.

Some survivors have chosen to remain in temporary barracks because they receive a daily stipend and other provisions, while others refuse to move because their new settlements lack electricity and other infrastructure.” [Reuters/Factiva]

“Two years after the Indian Ocean tsunami, media interest may be waning, but a report out today is optimistic that when it comes to humanitarian donorship, the wave sculpted a permanent new form. Global Humanitarian Assistance 2006, published by Development Initiatives, says a new humanitarian architecture is emerging. It attributes much of this change to the tsunami. "The tsunami mobilized public response on an unprecedented scale," says the report, which amasses statistics every year or two in an attempt to measure the humanitarian world. [Reuters News/Factiva]

World Bank Says Turkey Needs Sustainable Welfare System

“The World Bank said on Thursday Turkey needs a fair and fiscally sustainable social security system and offered to help the government reformulate a welfare bill which the Supreme Court rejected in part last week. The World Bank's Vice-President for Europe and Central Asia Shigeo Katsu was in Turkey for a two-day visit to review Turkey's economic program and discuss assistance to the country. ‘The social security reform is very, very important for this country. It has to be fair, equitable for the whole population and of course it has to be fiscally sustainable,’ Katsu told a news conference…”

“Delays to the reform are causing jitters in the markets, and a final decision is keenly awaited as a sign of the government's will to take tough decisions as parliamentary and presidential elections approach. Katsu said Turkey should…converge its economy with the European Union, which it seeks to join. ‘Turkey has done so much to gain macroeconomic stability ... Turkey has to be able to continue to compete in the global market place. For that reason I hope commitment to further reform will stay,’ he said.” [Reuters News/Factiva]

“Katsu called on Turkey Thursday to stick to the path of economic reform without any slackening next year when the country faces two elections. ‘I am aware that we are entering a year of important political events but I hope the commitment to economic reform will not wane,’ Katsu told reporters after talks with officials in Ankara. The Turkish parliament will elect a new president in April and general elections are due to be held in November… Katsu also called on the government to speed up work to complete the privatization of the public Halkbank, enact a long-delayed mortgage law and improve conditions at the labor markets.” [Agence France Presse/Factiva]

“Backed by multi-billion-dollar loans from the IMF and the World Bank, the Turkish economy has staged a spectacular recovery since a severe financial crisis brought the country to the brink of a financial collapse in 2001. Critics say the government may sacrifice tight fiscal discipline for populist policies ahead of next year's elections. The government has played down the concerns and promised to stick to reforms.” [AFX/Factiva]

Russia Offers $558 Million Debt Relief To 6 Countries

“Russia has offered to write off  $558.48 million worth of debts to six African nations, Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said at a news conference Thursday. Russia offered to write off $11.75 million owed by Benin, $162.8 million owned by Ethiopia, $102.45 million owed by Madagascar, $148.6 million owed by Mozambique, $20.86 million owed by Tanzania, and $112.2 million owed by Zambia. The debt relief was offered under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, Storchak said.” [Prime-TASS News (Russia)/Factiva]

News reports also indicate that Russia “may also offer to write off $350 million worth of debts to five other countries, namely Burundi, Republic of Congo, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sao Tome & Principe, and Chad, Storchak said. He noted, however, that some of the countries may opt for smaller write-offs and completely forego the initiative, as it requires them to finance education, healthcare or other eligible purposes with the relieved funds.” [Prime-TASS News/Ria Novosti (Russia)/Factiva]

“The Group of Eight (G8) industrialized countries, which Russia is part of, agreed to write off up to US $55 billion of poor countries' debts at a summit at Gleneagles…in July 2005. Of the total, Russia pledged to write off $2.2 billion. Russian officials said subsequently that some of these debts had already been written off. In February, Alexei Kudrin said that Russia planned to write off the $688 million debt of 16 poor countries, most of them African, as part of the initiative.” [Prime-TASS News (Russia)/Factiva]

WB approves $250-m policy loan program

“The World Bank announced yesterday the approval of a $250-million policy loan program to the Philippines by its board of executive directors.

The development policy loan, the first to be approved in eight years, will help support the country's drive to reduce the public sector deficit and debt.

Before this, the World Bank had approved three loan agreements worth $410 million to support basic education, health services, and local government unit investments. "The combination of three loans and this first development policy loan is the biggest package of assistance from the World Bank for the Philippines in recent years," the Bank said.” [Manila Standard/Factiva]

"The approval of this first DPL is a clear recognition by the World Bank of the major reforms we have undertaken to improve our prospects for growth," said Philippine Finance Secretary Margarito Teves. "With the deficit numbers on a decline, we have entered a virtuous cycle of lower borrowing, leading to a reduction in debt service and generating more resources for infrastructure and social services," he said.” [Xinhua News Agency/Factiva]

"The (loan) supports the country's significant achievements and further actions in reducing public sector deficit and debt by strengthening tax administration, improving budget execution and fiduciary performance and strengthening the finances of the power sector," the Bank said in a statement.” [Dow Jones/Factiva]

Also In This Edition: World Bank 'Uses Doubtful Evidence To Push Policies'; Briefly Noted...

World Bank 'Uses Doubtful Evidence To Push Policies'

The Financial Times writes on Friday that “a copy of the first big external audit of the World Bank's use of research found the Bank often used research on globalization ‘without taking a balanced view of the evidence’ and ignored unfavorable research. The panel praised Bank researchers' ‘extremely visible work on globalization, on aid effectiveness, and on growth and poverty.’ …”

“The probe examined World Bank research from 1998 to 2005 and was led by outside economists including Ken Rogoff, a former director at the IMF, and Angus Deaton, a professor at Princeton. The panel argued that the Bank ‘has not done enough to compile comprehensive data on trade costs,’ arguing that information on ‘how industries, regions, firms, and households respond to changes in trade barriers’ was fundamental to analysis of trade reform.”

“François Bourguignon, World Bank chief economist, said the critique was ‘deep and thoughtful, and draws insights from among the best research expertise available.’ Bourguignon indicated there were areas where he ‘broadly agreed with the report's recommendations and observations on bank research’ as well as areas where he had reservations. …”

Briefly Noted…

The IMF on Thursday forecast that Chad's economy should contract 1.2 percent next year, a dramatic fall from previous years as the government struggles with rising political instability and spillover violence from neighboring Sudan's Darfur region. The annual IMF economic review forecast gross domestic product growth of 1.3 percent in 2006, significantly lower than 8.6 percent in 2005 and 31.3 percent in 2004. [Reuters News/Factiva]

The World Bank said in Abuja that the $500million looted by former Head of State, late General Sani Abacha, which was returned to Nigeria by Switzerland two years ago, has not been mismanaged. [Daily Trust (Nigeria)/Factiva]

The World Bank's private sector lender said on Thursday it and partners would loan Cameroon's privatized power utility AES Sonel 260 million euros, one of the largest such deals in sub-Saharan Africa. The International Finance Corporation said the investment would help US-based AES Corp.'s Cameroon unit AES Sonel boost generating capacity and provide power to previously unserved parts of the central African country. [Reuters News/Factiva]

The World Bank said on Friday its board had approved a loan worth $250 million for the Philippines to help the government strengthen tax collection and reduce its budget deficit. This is the first budgetary support that the World Bank has given the Philippines in eight years. The money will also be used to support further reforms in the fiscal sector. [Reuters News/Factiva]

A critical rice shortage in Indonesia has sent prices soaring and prompted the government to consider the politically risky move of allowing imports. Depleting stocks, a prolonged drought and increased domestic consumption have been blamed for the shortage this year. [Straits Times (Singapore)/Factiva]

The sudden death yesterday of Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan's autocratic and eccentric president, has raised the threat of instability in a Central Asian republic that is an important energy supplier to Europe. His death is expected to spark both an internal power struggle and a tussle for influence between Russia, China and the US over a country with the world's fifth biggest gas reserves. Any disruption to gas exports from Turkmenistan via Russia to Europe - mostly to Ukraine - could affect the continent's energy security. But analysts said there were no immediate signs of unrest that could threaten supply. [Financial Times]

Columnist Martin Wolf asks what the benefits and costs of a diverse population are, and how a liberal democracy should define the limits of multiculturalism. In answering these questions, he writes, the high-income countries will also define what kind of society they wish to be in the 21st century. As the World Bank's latest Economic Prospects report makes clear, the pressure for migration from poor to rich countries is a permanent feature of our integrating world. A vigorous and often ill-tempered debate has opened over the consequences of this movement of people. [Financial Times]

Hank Greenberg and three other men who helped him build American International Group have created what could become one of the world's largest charitable foundations with a possible endowment of $20bn. The new Starr International Foundation, based in Zug, Switzerland, will focus on a broad range of international educational, medical and cultural causes. It yesterday announced its first grants of $4 million to Doctors Without Borders, an international humanitarian organization, and $1m to various charities in Switzerland. [Financial Times]

A UN committee agreed Thursday to maintain the existing formula for calculating member states' share of contributions from 2007 to 2009, a move that will lower Japan's share from 19.5 percent to 16.6 percent of the total budget, a senior UN official said Thursday. [Kyodo News (Japan)/Factiva]