Economic vulnerability to external shocks, social protection and poverty in Latin America

Economic vulnerability to external shocks, social protection and poverty in Latin America. Conditional cash transfers and non-contributory pension plans can be viable fiscal instruments to offset the negative effects of external shocks on poverty and inequality. This conclusion is drawn from applying an integrated macro-micro modelling framework with data from Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Mexico. The results of country studies conducted by national teams were integrated into a comparative analysis. The modelling framework, described in detail, takes explicit account of social protection systems and policies, and is used to gauge the economy-wide effects of external shocks and policy responses through scenario analyses.