People at the centre of sustainable development

Ahead of the upcoming World Population Day, celebrated annually across the world on 11 July, we asked Mr. John Wilmoth, Director of UN DESA’s Population Division, to share some of the current population trends across the globe and why it is important to commemorate this day, this year with a focus on teenage girls.

World Population Day is celebrated every year on 11 July. Why is it important to have a day putting a spotlight on the world’s population?

“Setting aside one day per year for the world to focus on population issues is important, as it helps the global community to take stock of achievements in the field of population and development, to highlight obstacles and challenges to people-centred sustainable development, and to explore emerging issues.

This year, with a thematic focus on teenage girls, the international community should recognize, for example, that although adolescent fertility has been declining globally, it remains high in many countries. Although further declines in the level of adolescent fertility are projected, future trends will depend heavily on the investments made in education, especially for girls, and on the availability of information and services in the area of sexual and reproductive health.

A yearly focus on a particular population issue is crucial so that the international community can take stock, identify achievements and address challenges to the implementation of the commitments made in Cairo in 1994 and more recently as part of the Sustainable Development Goals.”

The number of international migrants worldwide has continued to grow rapidly, reaching 244 million in 2015. How does monitoring trends in human mobility help us to ensure safe and well-managed international migration?

“By mainstreaming migration as part of the 2030 Agenda, the international community recognized the important linkages between international migration and development for countries of origin and countries of destination, and for migrants and their families.

The follow-up and review of the migration-related commitments of the 2030 Agenda, such as target 10.7, which seeks to “facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people”, are critical for achieving the new development goals.

A robust indicator framework to monitor the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals is essential for assessing current and future needs and setting policy priorities. As a starting point, we need accurate and timely data on trends in international migration disaggregated by age, sex and other characteristics of migrants.

In addition, keeping in mind the call by the 2030 Agenda to promote inclusive and equitable development for all, throughout the indicator framework, data pertaining to human conditions and outcomes should be disaggregated by migrant status.”

Are there any striking new trends within the global population that you can foresee within the next few years?

“The world’s population numbered 7.3 billion in 2015, and it is projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, with most of the increase occurring in Africa and Asia. However, the story of future global demographic change is not simply one of continued population increase.

It is also a story of substantial demographic diversity, with respect to both the growth rate and the age distribution of the populations of different countries. This diversity is driven primarily by differences in levels and trends in fertility.

While fertility has been declining in many countries to levels where women now have fewer than 2.1 children, on average, over their lifetimes, fertility in some countries, mostly in Africa, has remained high, such that the average woman continues to have 5 or more children over her lifetime. At the same time, gains in life expectancy have been achieved worldwide with life expectancy at birth rising by 3 years between 2000-2005 and 2010-2015, that is from 67 to 70 years. All major areas shared in the life expectancy gains over this period, and the largest gains over this time period have been for Africa.

The slowdown in global population growth, due to the overall reduction in fertility levels, has caused the proportion of older persons to increase over time. At the same time, populations with high levels of fertility, even those where fertility has fallen to intermediate levels, still have relatively young age distributions.

In all areas of the world, persons of working age (ages 15-64) comprised a higher proportion of the population in 2015 than in 1970. Many countries, including a growing number in Africa, will experience further increases in the working age proportion between 2015 and 2030, while others have already peaked or are expected to do so between 2015 and 2030.

The period of rising proportions of people of working age may afford a “demographic window of opportunity”, allowing more rapid economic growth provided that the economy generates a sufficient number of decent jobs for the growing number of workers. In addition, over half the world’s population now lives in urban areas, and nearly all of the population growth projected over the next few decades will take place in cities.

The number of large cities has been growing rapidly, and they house an increasing proportion of urban dwellers. For the world as a whole, the urban population is expected to grow from 3.9 billion in 2015 to 5 billion in 2030.

Lastly, international migration has grown in scope and complexity in recent years. The number of international migrants, defined as persons currently living outside of their country of birth, rose to 244 million in 2015, up from 222 million in 2010 and 173 million in 2000.

Given that international migration can be a transformative force, lifting people out of poverty and contributing to sustainable development, the continued growth in the number of international migrants is overall a positive trend. In conclusion, understanding future demographic changes as well as the challenges and opportunities that they present will be crucial to the implementation and review of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”

For more information: UN DESA’s Population Division