Workshop on measuring population ageing and assessing its economic and fiscal consequences in Asia-Pacific

Bangkok, Thailand

Date: 
24 June 2019 to 27 June 2019

Overview

Integrating population and development strategies into planning and decision-making is a key objective of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD). It is also an important area of work of the United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in support of Member States.

Achievement of an inclusive economic development that leaves no one behind requires good investment and good planning. Because achieving the SDGs by 2030 also means insuring their sustainability beyond 2030, training in the use of long-run population, economic, and fiscal forecasts is an important component of capacity development as envisioned by Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing.

In this context, the Population Division of DESA and ESCAP are organizing the Asia-Pacific Workshop on Measuring Population Ageing and Assessing its Economic and Fiscal Consequences, to be held at the United Nations Conference Centre in Bangkok from 24 to 27 June 2019.

The Workshop recognizes that population ageing will be one of the most important forces shaping the outcome of social and economic policy in the coming decades in the Asian and Pacific region, yet it is not always explicitly included in policy discussions. Because its influence is difficult to discern in the short-run, a myopic policy focus inevitably results in delays in addressing mounting challenges such as population ageing, climate change, non-communicable disease and environmental degradation.

Objective

The Workshop objective is to introduce (a) new measures of population ageing that reflect the emerging demographic landscape of the Asian and Pacific region, and (b) innovative methods for assessing the medium- and long-run economic and fiscal impacts of population ageing.

The Workshop is intended for government officials and national professionals (demographers, statisticians, economists and others) involved in envisioning national futures via population, economic, fiscal or budgetary forecasts. It is expected that participants will be informed on the use of population projections for economic and fiscal planning and thereby ensure long-term sustainable development.

Documents

Programme of work

Monday, 24 June 2019
09:00 – 10:00

Item 1: Welcome and course introduction [Presentation]

 
  • Srinivas Tata, Director, Social Development Division, ESCAP and Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division,       DESA 

 

10:30 – 11:00

Item 2: Population ageing in Asia-Pacific: challenges and opportunities [Presentation]

 
  • Sabine Henning, Chief, Sustainable Demographic Transition Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP

 

11:00 – 11:45

Item 3: “Future-proofing” sustainable development: the need for projections [Presentarion]

 
  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Mun Sim Lai, Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA

 

13:15 – 14:15

Item 4: New demographic measures of ageing [Presentation]

 
  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA

 

14:15 – 15:00

Item 5: Country presentations: Long-run economic and fiscal forecasts

 
  • Cambodia and Bangladesh

 

15:30 – 17:00

Item 6: Hands-on training (Calculation of demographic measures of ageing: Chronological age, thanatological age, and prospective age)

 
  • Mun Sim Lai, Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA

 

Tuesday, 25 June 2019
09:00 – 10:00

Item 7: Forecasting the economic consequences of population ageing [Presentation]

 
  • Mun Sim Lai, Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA

 

10:30 – 12:00

Item 8: Hands-on training (Country case studies of 50-year economic forecasts)

 
  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA

 

13:15 – 13:30

Item 9: UNFPA activities in Asia-Pacific on population ageing and National Transfer Accounts [Presentation]

 
  • Rintaro Mori, Regional Adviser for Population Ageing and Sustainable Development, UNFPA, Asia-Pacific Regional Office

 

13:30 – 14:00

Item 10: Population ageing and social protection [Presentation]

 
  • Vanessa Steinmayer, Population Affairs Officer, Sustainable Demographic Transition Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP

 

14:00 – 15:00

Item 11: Scenario forecasts to assess policy responses to population ageing

 
  • Mun Sim, Lai Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA and Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA

 

15:15 – 16:00

Item 12: Country presentations: Long-run economic and fiscal forecasts

 
  • Fiji,  India and Indonesia

 

16:00 – 17:00

Item 13: Hands-on training (Country case studies of policy responses to population ageing: investing in education, promoting gender equality, insuring healthy ageing) [Presentation]

 
  • Mun Sim Lai, Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA and Marco Roncarati, Social Affairs Officer, Sustainable Demographic Transition Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP

 

Wednesday, 26 June 2019
09:00 – 10:00

Item 14: Forecasting the consequences of population ageing for public financing of education and pensions [Presentation]

 
  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Mun Sim Lai, Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA

 

10:30 – 12:00

Item 15: Hands-on training (Country case studies of 50-year forecasts for public spending on education and pensions)

 
  • Mun Sim Lai, Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA and Marco Roncarati, Social Affairs Officer, Sustainable Demographic Transition Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP

 

13:30 – 14:00

Item 16: A life course perspective on population ageing: Learning from research on the demographic dividend [Presentation]

 
  • Marco Roncarati, Social Affairs Officer, Sustainable Demographic Transition Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP

 

14:00 – 15:00

Item 17: Forecasting the consequences of population ageing for public financing of health care [Presentation]

 
  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Mun Sim Lai, Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA

 

15:15 – 16:00

Item 18: Country presentations: Long-run economic and fiscal forecasts

 
  • Iran, Lao People Democratic Republic and Malaysia

 

16:00 – 17:00

Item 19: Hands-on training (Country case studies of 50-year forecasts for public spending on health care)

 
  • Mun Sim Lai, Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA and Marco Roncarati, Social Affairs Officer, Sustainable Demographic Transition Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP

 

Thursday, 27 June 2019
09:00 – 09:45

Item 20: The Intergenerational Report

 
  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Mun Sim Lai, Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA

 

09:45 – 10:15

Item 21: Country presentations: Long-run economic and fiscal forecasts

 
  • Thailand and Viet Nam

 

10:30 – 11:30

Item 22: Demographic Dividend Index: A conceptual framework [Presentation]

 
  • Latif Dramani, Coordonnatuer, Centre Régional d'Excellence en Economie Générationnelle (CREG)

 

11:30 – 12:00

Item 23: Final group discussion and closure