Expert group meeting on recent and future trends in fertility

New York

02 December 2009 to 04 December 2009


Programme of work

Wednesday, 2 December 2009
9:30 – 12:30

I. Opening session


     Hania Zlotnik, Director, United Nations Population Division. Projecting fertility: A history (presentation)



II. Low fertility countries in Europe, Northern America, Australia and New Zealand

  • Tomáš Sobotka, Czech Republic, Vienna Institute of Demography. European fertility trends and prospects (presentation)
  • Gerda Neyer, Austria, Stockholm University. Effects of family policies on childbearing behaviour in developed countries (presentation)
  • Hans-Peter Kohler, Germany, University of Pennsylvania. Why has fertility recently increased in many developed countries? (presentation)


14:00 – 17:30

III. Low fertility countries in Asia

  • Gavin Jones, Australia, National University of Singapore. Recent fertility trends, policy responses and fertility prospects in low fertility countries of East and Southeast Asia (presentation)
  • Gu Baochang, China, Renmin University of China. Fertility prospects in China (presentation)
  • Ryuichi Kaneko, Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Fertility prospects in Japan (presentation)
  • Sergio DellaPergola, Israel, Hebrew University Jerusalem. Fertility prospects in Israel: Ever below replacement level? (presentation)



IV. Arab countries –diversity in fertility levels

  • Laila El-Zeini, Egypt, Cairo University. Fertility transition in Egypt and Morocco: Explaining the differences (presentation)
  • John Casterline (USA), Ohio State University. Fertility levels and trends in Arab countries: Why so diverse and what are the prospects (presentation)


Thursday, 3 December 2009
9:30 – 12:30

V. Latin American fertility levels

  • Suzana Cavenaghi, Brazil, ENCE/IBGE. Diversity of childbearing behaviour within population in the context of below replacement fertility in Brazil (presentation)
  • Guiomar Bay, UN/ECLAC. Latin American fertility decline: Differences and commonalities
  • Luis Rosero-Bixby, Costa Rica, University of Costa Rica. Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing? (presentation)


14:00 – 17:30

VI. Asian countries with intermediate fertility levels

  • Carl Haub, USA, Population Reference Bureau. Fertility prospects in India (presentation)
  • Zeba A. Sathar, Pakistan, Population Council. Fertility prospects in Pakistan (presentation)
  • Terry Hull, Australia, Australian National University. Fertility prospects in South-Eastern Asia (presentation)



VII. Prospects of fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Tom Moultrie, South Africa, University of Cape Town. Stopping, spacing and postponing: The future of the African fertility decline (presentation)
  • Jean-Pierre Guengant, France. Proximate determinants of fertility in Africa and their use in fertility projections (presentation)


Friday, 4 December 2009
9:30 – 12:30

VIII. Projecting fertility

  • United Nations Population Division. The evolution of United Nations Population Division’s approach to projecting fertility


     Presentation of new methodology:

  • Adrian Raftery, Ireland, University of Washington. : Overview of a Bayesian approach to projections
  • Leontine Alkema, Netherlands, National University of Singapore. Methodology for Bayesian projection of fertility (presentation)



     Preliminary assessment of new methodology:

  • United Nations Population Division. Implications for total fertility and population projections


14:00 – 17:30

IX. Panel discussion on projecting fertility

  • Peter Johnson, USA, United States Census Bureau
  • Joel Cohen, USA, Rockefeller University
  • Nico Keilman, Norway, University of Oslo
  • Timothy Dyson, United Kingdom, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Peter Way, USA, United States Census Bureau
  • John Bongaarts, Netherlands, Population Council



X. Closing