National workshop on population projections

Tbilisi, Georgia

20 May 2019 to 24 May 2019

Overview

The Population Division organized a training workshop to improve national capacity in population projections. The workshop was held at GEOSTAT (National Statistics Office of Georgia) in Tbilisi, Georgia, from 20 to 24 May 2019. Participants were trained in methods and software (DAPPS) for national and sub-national population projections.
 

Organization of work

20 May 2019

9 am – 5 pm

Opening

  • GEOSTAT

  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development,  Population Division, DESA and Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA

 

Session 1. Introduction

  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA.
    • 1.1 Why do we need population projections?
    • 1.2 Why are we bad at making them?
    • 1.3 The basic accounting identity of demography
    • 1.4 The Lexis diagram
    • 1.5 The cohort component projection method
    • 1.6 Training exercise: Lexis diagrams

 

Session 2. Establishing the starting population.

  • Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA.  
    • 2.1 Evaluate the quality of the data
    • 2.2 Deficient and incomplete data: methods for correction
    • 2.3 Transfer the population to midyear
    • 2.4 Training exercise: Preparing the starting population

 

21 May 2019

9 am – 5 pm

Session 3.  Fertility component.

  • Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division DESA. 
    • 3.1 Analysis of past fertility trends: levels and age patterns

    • 3.2 Training exercise: Baseline fertility data for Georgia

    • 3.3 Projection of future fertility trends

    • 3.4 Training exercise: Fertility assumptions for Georgia

 

Session 4. Mortality component. 

  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA.
    • 4.1 The life table

    • 4.2 Assessing the completeness of register data

    • 4.3 Training exercise: Constructing a life table

    • 4.4 Projection of future mortality trends

    • 4.5 Training exercise: Mortality assumptions for Georgia

 

22 May 2019

9 am – 5 pm

Session 5. Migration component.

  • Thomas Spoorenbeg, Population Division, DESA.
    • 5.1 Analysis of past migration trends: levels and age patterns

    • 5.2 Training exercise: Baseline migration data for Georgia

    • 5.3 Projection of future migration trends

    • 5.4 Training exercise: Migration assumptions for Georgia

 

Session 6. National population projections. 

  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA.
    • 6.1 The components of the cohort component projection method

    • 6.2 Detailed procedures for making population projections using the DAPPS software

    • 6.3 Examining graphs and tables in DAPPS

    • 6.4 Training exercise: A population projection for Georgia

    • 6.5 How to design integrated scenarios

    • 6.6 Training exercise: Integrated scenarios for Georgia

 

23 May 2019

9 am – 5 pm

Session 7. Subnational population projections.

  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA.
    • 7.1 Subnational components

    • 7.2 Interregional migration

    • 7.3 Insuring consistency with national projections

    • 7.4 The Feeney method

    • 7.5 Iterative proportional fitting

    • 7.6 Detailed procedures for making subnational projections using software

    • 7.7 Training exercise: Subnational population projections for Georgia

 

24 May 2019

9 am – 5 pm

Session 8. Innovations in data visualization methods.

  • Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA and Thomas Spoorenberg, Population Division, DESA. 
    • 8.1 How to present population results

    • 8.2 Using indicators: population ageing

    • 8.3 Quantifying projection uncertainty thru probability fans

    • 8.4 3-D visualizations: R, 3D printing, and AR

    • 8.5 Training exercise

 

Session 9. Conclusions and final discussion

Closing

  • GEOSTAT