Expert group meeting on methods for the World Population Prospects 2021 and beyond

New York (Virtual meeting)

06 April 2020 to 08 April 2020


World Population Prospects (WPP), the United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by DESA’s Population Division since 1951, form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. Widely considered to be the world’s most authoritative dataset on population levels, trends and characteristics, WPP is used for calculating one-third of the indicators used to track progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Starting in 2021, WPP will estimate and project the population by single age for each year (“1x1”), replacing the current “5x5” approach.

In order to achieve this objective, the Population Division is organizing an online expert group meeting on “Methods for the World Population Prospects 2021 and beyond” from 6 and 8 April 2020. The purpose of the meeting is to bring together experts to discuss and share experiences in the use of methods to develop robust annual time series of various demographic indicators (child, adult and old-age mortality, fertility, migration), incorporate uncertainty in population estimates, produce models to derive mortality and fertility age patterns, and reconcile the various demographic components of change to reconstruct coherent populations by age, period and cohort from 1950 to 2020.



Session 2

Tuesday, 7th April 2020

  • Facilitator: Sara Hertog

Adult and old-age mortality data: evaluation and modelling  for deficient or lacking VR countries

Modelling of age patterns: abridged and complete  age distributions