Expert group meeting on current population issues in the estimation of adult mortality

New York 

26 October 2006 to 27 October 2006


The Expert Group Meeting on Adult Mortality convened by the Population Division provided an opportunity to discuss ongoing activities in other institutions and to obtain feedback on the work carried out by the Population Division. As mortality levels continue to decrease in most countries of the world, deaths become increasingly concentrated at older ages and it becomes more pressing to estimate mortality in adult ages with accuracy. In addition, as the AIDS epidemic continues to expand, accounting for its effect on adult mortality is essential. These are some of the issues discussed by the Expert Group Meeting, as reflected in this report.



Organization of work

Thursday, 26 October 2006


Afternoon session

I. Opening of the meeting

  • Ms. Hania Zlotni, UN Population Division

II. Overview of the project

  • Mr. John Wilmoth, UN Population Division

III. Brief summary of mortality estimation activities

Participants (one per institution) are asked to provide a brief overview of work and a statement of priorities in the area of mortality estimation from the perspective of their home institutions.

IV. Current estimates of adult or overall mortality

  • a) Summary of data and method
    • i.   Ms. Mie Inoue, World Health Organization.
    • ii.  Ms. Cheryl Sawyer,  UN Population Division
  • b)  Mr. Kirill Andreev, Ms. Cheryl Sawyer. Comparison of estimates


V. UN and WHO relational mortality models.

  • a) Ms. Mie Inoue. Presentation of WHO model

  • b) Mr. John Wilmoth. Presentation of UN model

  • c) Mr. Vladimir Canudas-Romo.  Comparison of two models


Friday, 27 October 2006


Morning session

VI. Estimating adult mortality using incomplete vital. Registration data

  • a) Mr. Ken Hill. Evaluating the validity of indirect estimates of adult mortality

  • b) Ms. Danzhen You. Simulation analysis of death distribution methods (DDM)

  • c) Ms. Mila Andreeva. Comparison of data sources for DDM estimation

  • d) Mr. John Wilmoth. Toward a methods protocol for DDM estimation


VII. Database development.

  • a) Mr. Kirill Andreev, Ms. Cheryl Sawyer. Database design and data processing

  • b) Mr. John Wilmoth. Collaboration and implementation




Afternoon session.

VIII. Focus on selected regions and countries

  • a) Mr. Ayaga Bawah. Sub-Saharan Africa

  • b) Ms. France Meslé.  Former USSR and Eastern Europe

  • c) Ms. Cheryl Sawyer. Other examples


IX.  Approaches to modelling AIDS mortality

  • a) Mr. Thomas Buettner. Epidemiological models and simulation

  • b) Mr. Ayaga Bawah, Mr. John Wilmoth. Model life tables and relational models


X. Concluding remarks and future directions

  • Mr. Jacques Vallin