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The world economy has been in recovery for about a year. World trade is now almost back to its 2008 pre-crisis level. But it has been the emerging market economies and other developing economies that have set the pace of the recovery. Trade flows to and from these countries already surpassed 2008 pre-crisis levels in February and have increased further since, albeit at a slowing pace. Trade by developed economies, in contrast, was still 8 per cent below the pre-crisis peak level in May 2010.

 

Growth of global output is decelerating, however. The key impetuses to the initial recovery are waning: Governments in many countries are unwinding the fiscal stimuli and the inventory restocking is petering out.