Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 20

June 2010

Summary:

  • The world economy is rebounding but the recovery remains uneven, weak and fragile 
  • At the present speed of the recovery, unemployment rates will take five years to drop to pre-crisis levels
  • The recovery is still mainly driven by government stimulus measures; concerns about widening  fiscal deficits are pressuring for withdrawal of stimulus, risking taking steam out of the recovery
As stressed in the recent World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2010, the world economy continues to rebound from its deepest crisis since World War II. After contracting by 2.0 per cent in 2009, the world economy is forecast to grow at 3.0 per cent in 2010 and 3.2 per cent in 2011. However, the recovery continues to be uneven, weak and fragile. 
 
It is uneven because not all economies are showing the same strength. Growth in developed economies is forecast to average 1.9 per cent in 2010 and 2.1 per cent in 2011, up from -3.4 per cent in 2009. The recovery is stronger in the economies in transition, with projected growth of 3.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.4 per cent in 2011. But this group also experienced the sharpest contraction in 2009 (-6.7 per cent). For developing economies, aggregated growth is expected to reach 5.9 per cent in 2010 and 5.8 per cent in 2011, bottoming out at 2.2 per cent in 2009. In addition to diverging patterns in these regions, there are also marked differences at the country level. For example, despite positive regional growth averages, 13 countries are expected to remain in recession during 2010, seven of them in the developed world.
 

Download the World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing No. 20

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