CDP Policy Review No. 8

By Namsuk Kim

The progress made for enabling LDCs to move toward graduation has not been successful enough. Fourteen countries have been able to meet the criteria for graduation during 2011-2020, only half way to meet the target specified in the IPoA: a half of LDCs meeting the graduation criteria by 2020. Without boosting the development progress of LDCs, the possibility of achieving Sustainable Development Goals of the Agenda 2030 in all countries, leaving no one behind, will be very limited. The present paper investigates the trend based on diverse scenarios, to sheds light on the possible graduation cases by 2030, and implications on how much effort is needed to accelerate the development progress of LDCs. Based on the statistical information on the historical trend, only 20-24 LDC (44-53% of the total) may meet graduation thresholds by 2030, approaching the IPoA target set for 2020. Optimistic hypothetical scenarios predict that 27-36 LDCs (60-80% of the total) may meet the graduation criteria by 2030. To achieve the optimistic scenarios, however, an unprecedented pace of progress in all LDC criteria are required – income growth needs to be at least 7 per cent for all LDCs, or the progress needs to be accelerated two or three times faster than long term trends. Only in such optimistic scenarios, a substantive share of LDCs will be able to meet the graduation criteria by 2030.