Eradicating poverty by 2030: Implications for Income Inequality, Population Policies, Food Prices (and Faster Growth?)

CDP Background Paper No. 40

By Giovanni Andrea Cornia

The paper examines whether the planned eradication of poverty to the year 2030 part of the SDG strategy is compatible with the expected trends in key economic variables such as GDP growth, population growth, income inequality and food prices. To do so, the paper develops a comparativestatic, poverty-accounting model that allows to simulate to 2030 the impact on SDG1 of the fastest improvements recorded for the above four variables during the last 30 years. Numerous model simulations show that – even under the most favorable assumptions – between 16 and 28 countries (mainly from Africa) out of the 78 analyzed will not reach the SDG1 target. Policy suggestions on how to improve on such results are presented at the end.

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