CDP Background Paper No. 20

By Hiroshi Kawamura

This paper examines the prospects of achieving a main goal of the Istanbul Programme of Action—at least half of the LDCs to meet the graduation criteria by 2020. Based on two different sets of graduation criteria established by the CDP and current trends in socio-economic indicators of LDCs, the paper concludes that the goal is unlikely to be met even under an optimistic scenario. There are considerable uncertainties about the possible outcome, partly owing to the way in which the graduation criteria are established and partly owing to the difficulty of predicting future course of socio-economic development of LDCs.