UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
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For further information please contact the United Nations Population Fund
at 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017 USA or via email:
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FROM: Population Growth and Economic Development: Report on the
Consultative Meeting of Economists Convened by the United Nations
Population Fund, 28-29 September 1992, New York. New York:UNFPA, 1993
POPULATION GROWTH AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT: THE POLICY RESPONSE OF
GOVERNMENTS
Background Paper Prepared by UNFPA
I. Introduction
This report presents the concerns of Governments of developing
countries regarding the consequences for economic development of
rapid population growth. The focus is on the policy response of
Governments that view high rates of population growth as detrimental
to their development efforts. Other population issues, such as
migration and high rates of urbanization, are not addressed in this
report.
As of 1990, a little more than half of all developing-country
Governments viewed their population growth rates as too high and
therefore unsatisfactory (United Nations, 1990a and 1990b). These
perceptions corresponded largely with the Governments' perceptions
of high fertility rates. These dual perceptions will undoubtedly
influence policy prescriptions aimed at lowering population growth
rates. The perceptions and policy responses stem from the actual
levels of population growth and their functional relationships to
individual countries' distinctive social, economic, cultural and
environmental conditions.
Many Governments have adopted either implicit or explicit
policies to lower population growth rates. Explicit population
policies may include sections of development plans, legislation,
documents from government ministries or commissions, or statements
by high-level officials. They usually involve statements of
intention or planned activities with regard to reducing or
stabilizing current or anticipated population growth rates.
The rationale for policies aimed at lowering population growth
rates is in large measure derived from the view that rapid population
growth without a commensurate increase in production and productivity
impedes socio-economic development. Reductions in population growth
rates are sought to redress imbalances between available resources
and national goals, in turn facilitating socio-economic development.
Overwhelming support for this view has come from the Govern-
ments of both developing and the developed countries. In 1990, the
South Commission Report on Population and Population Policy declared:
"The present high rates of population growth increase the burden of
dependency and reduce the resources available for raising produc-
tivity to what is sufficient just to maintain subsistence levels. ...
It is therefore necessary that countries with high birth rates should
act without delay and adopt policies which will have an impact on
population growth in a reasonable period of time." (The Population
Council, 1990c). A similar view on this issue was issued by the OECD
countries in 1990 (see box above).
There are generally two competing perspectives on what
constitutes effective population strategies in the face of rapid
population growth rates. One view is that demographic variables are
an essential aspect of socio-economic development, and demographic
policies are as essential to overall development as economic
policies; consequently, specific attention has to be given to
population interventions.
The other perspective, expressed by many developing countries
at the World Population Conference of 1974, is that demographic
variables are wholly a function of social and economic development,
and overall social transformation will result in demographic adjust-
ments. The views of many Governments, however, have changed from
that extreme view (see Section IV). The latter view is still adhered
to by some Governments, notably Brazil's. At the 39th meeting of the
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Governing Council in
1992, the delegation of Brazil stated: "The provision of better
standards of living is fundamental for dealing with the issue of
population. It has been clearly demonstrated that the promotion of
economic development is the best tool to curb population pressures."
Policy makers and Governments of many developing countries have
increasingly adopted the former view, sometimes classified as
population-oriented development. The economic success of countries
where the reduction of fertility has been seen as an essential aspect
of development policy þ including Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and
Thailand þ has not gone unnoticed (see, for example, UNFPA, 1986,
1991 and 1992b). In addition, the social and economic malaise of
many developing countries where population growth is still high,
especially those of sub-Saharan Africa, may have given added impetus
to the policy trend towards reviewing dynamic and structural
demographic elements as integral parts of development planning
policies and models. The Kilimanjaro Plan of Action (1984) reflected
the individual and collective commitments by African Governments to
adopt and implement population-influencing policies.
II. Regional Focus
This section discusses the problems associated with rapid
population growth as seen from the standpoint of national Governments
in the regions of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and
the Pacific, and Western Asia. The views on the issue are mainly
those expressed by Governments in response to the Sixth Population
Inquiry conducted by the United Nations in 1988 (United Nations,
1990a).
At that time, 53 per cent of the developing-country Governments
viewed their population growth rates as too high, and approximately
80 per cent of the Governments with this view had policies aimed at
reducing their population growth rates.
A. Africa
The Africa region is characterized by some of the highest
population growth rates (over 3 per cent per year) in the world.
Nevertheless, many Governments have not given high priority to the
issue of rapid population growth until recently. In the case of sub-
Saharan Africa, for example, only Mauritius, Ghana and Kenya had
adopted population policies before the 1974 International Conference
on Population. Today, however, many countries of the region have
begun to formulate and/or implement population policies.
In response to the Sixth Population Inquiry, 30 out of 52
African Governments responded that they viewed their population
growth rates as too high. These Governments generally agreed that
rapid population growth is detrimental to socio-economic development.
They identified some common concerns relating to rapid population
growth; these included the high dependency ratio resulting from a
young population, and the difficulties in raising or even maintaining
current living standards. A number of the Governments expressed
concern about the strains placed on farm land, food, energy, employ-
ment opportunities, and health and education services.
The response of the Government of Kenya to the Sixth Population
Inquiry typifies these concerns. The Government stated that Kenya's
population growth rate, "currently estimated at 3.8 per cent, places
considerable constraints on social and economic development goals.
Some of the effects of this population growth have already manifested
themselves in social problems such as high and growing dependency
burden, unemployment, unplanned parenthood and increasing demand on
basic services such as health, education, nutrition and shelter."
Policies to lower population growth rates usually include
integrating maternal and child health with family planning; this is
the case, for example, in Egypt, Niger and Rwanda. A number of
Governments have instituted public-sector family planning systems,
while some support private family planning organizations. Some
emphasize enhancing the status of women; Nigeria, for example, estab-
lished a commission for women's affairs. An increasing number of
Governments (for example, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zambia) are
adopting specific goals both in terms of population growth rates and
fertility rates. In addition, many countries have adopted rural
development strategies to stem rural-urban migration. Some have made
efforts to integrate population policies into development plans.
There are also ongoing efforts to improve laws on such issues as age
at marriage, sale and distribution of contraceptives, and women's
rights of ownership.
In many countries of the region, the implementation of
population activities is hindered by the limited availability of
financial and technical resources. Population programmes are still
in their infancy in much of sub-Saharan Africa. In many countries
the demand for family planning is still low. However, as the
detrimental impacts on development of a rapidly growing population
become more and more pronounced, there is a concomitant strengthening
of political commit-ment to adopt population policies aimed at
stabilizing and reducing population growth rates.
B. Latin America and the Caribbean
In Latin America, population variables are gradually being
incorporated into the development plans of Governments. In the
interim, several non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have played
a key role in bringing down fertility rates and slowing overall
population growth rates. With the rise of "population consciousness"
in the region, Latin American Governments are increasingly adopting
the view that a linkage between population programmes and develop-
mental programmes on health, education and employment is essential
for sustained and sustainable development (UNFPA, 1990a).
In response to the Sixth Population Inquiry, 17 out of 33
Governments in the region considered their population growth rates
too high and reported interventionist policies to lower them. In the
Caribbean subregion, 10 of 13 Governments viewed their population
growth rates as too high. In Central America, most Governments (for
example, Mexico, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Honduras)
shared a similar view.
In South America, in contrast to Central America and the
Caribbean, only Ecuador and Peru viewed their population growth rates
as too high and reported interventionist policies. Peru has
incorporated the principles of its population policies in its laws.
In a similar manner, the population policy of Ecuador is embodied in
its Constitution. The federal Government of Brazil does not
intervene to lower fertility or population growth. Instead, the
Government views social and economic development as a solution to
demographic problems. Nevertheless, fertility rates are declining
substantially in Brazil, and also in Costa Rica and Panama. This is
mainly due to the active involvement of many NGOs in family planning,
and to state-sponsored family planning activities for health-related
reasons.
As in Africa, many Latin American and Caribbean countries are
concerned about their high dependency ratios resulting from a young
population, and the impact this has had on socio-economic develop-
ment. This is evident from Mexico's response to the Sixth Population
Inquiry:
"The Government of Mexico considers the rate of growth and the
age structure of the population to be very important factors for
economic and social development. ... While population growth has
decreased significantly, it is still rapid and the age structure
remains young (about 50 per cent of the population is under 15),
which will lead to an increasing demand for employment, housing,
and other benefits in the coming decades." (United Nations,
1990a)
The Caribbean Governments, while sharing many of the concerns
common to Governments in the region, also have concerns that are
specific to small island nations. Although population growth rates
are comparatively low (1.5 per cent for the subregion during
1985-1990), the Governments view them as high because population
densities are relatively high and natural resources are limited.
There is also concern about the impact of population growth on the
growing problems of degradation of coastal regions, deforestation,
silting up of streams and rivers, water pollution and waste disposal.
In policy measures, most Governments have been promoting family
planning and population education and, at the same time attempting
to ease their dependency on primary products and tourism by
encouraging greater economic diversification. Many Governments
(Jamaica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago,
for example) have adopted formal population policies and are engaged
in efforts to integrate population factors into development planning
(UNDP, 1991b).
Few countries in the region have explicit targets for population
growth. (Among those that do are Mexico, with a target of 1.9 per
cent growth by 1998; and Peru, 2 per cent by 2000.) Policies aimed
at modifying demographic variables are combined with those aimed at
creating employment opportunities, particularly for women, and
economic restructuring policies. Some Governments (including those
of Honduras, Mexico and Peru) are increasingly concerned about the
roles and status of women and their impact on the development
process, and have adopted education and employment policies to
improve the status of women in their societies.
During the past decade, family planning has won acceptance among
growing segments of the populations of Latin American countries.
This is especially true in urban areas where family planning
programmes tend to be concentrated. In many countries of the region,
however, family planning services are not easily available in rural
areas.
Although some Governments have started to incorporate population
issues into development plans and important legislation, others still
resist linking population goals with national development strategies,
for both ideological and technical reasons (see, for example, the
position of Brazilian President Fernando Collor at the time of the
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development: Collor,
1992).
C. Asia and the Pacific
The Asian and Pacific countries have had a head start over
Africa and Latin America in confronting the issue of rapid population
growth. Governmental commitments to adopt and implement population
policies are generally strong. Asian countries (e.g., India,
Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand) have largely succeeded in
integrating family planning with national maternal and child care and
primary health services (UNFPA, 1992b).
The largest countries of the Asia and the Pacific region
(Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia and Pakistan) have all set
explicit population targets and goals in their development plans, and
agree on the aim of reducing population growth rates through rapid
reductions of fertility. Their Governments see population growth as
a major development-related problem and largely agree that the
reduction of population growth rates will impact positively on socio-
economic development and living standards.
In response to the Sixth Population Inquiry, 18 Governments out
of 35 reported that they considered their population growth rates too
high, and 16 reported governmental intervention aimed at lowering
population growth rates.
China and India, for example, have policies to control
population growth through the promotion of family planning. The
Chinese Government has stepped up efforts to reduce fertility in the
wake of a recent surge which surpassed official targets and caused
concern about its impact on gains due to economic reforms. Thus,
there is a renewed emphasis on the "one couple, one child" policy,
public education for family planning, stricter enforcement of laws
relating to the age of marriage, and the integration of family
planning programmes with maternal and child health care.
The Government of India also has an extensive family planning
programme aimed at curbing population growth rates and fostering
smaller and healthier families. For over three decades, the
Government has recognized the negative consequences of India's
population growth rate on economic development efforts. This
recognition has influenced the incorporation of comprehensive
population policies as well as support for family welfare programmes
in successive development plans (United Nations, 1992a).
In Bangladesh, population is seen not just a high-priority issue
but as a matter of national survival. One of the Government's major
goals is to increase contraceptive prevalence from the current level
of about 33 per cent to 66 per cent by the mid-1990s. The Govern-
ment's response to the Sixth Population Inquiry indicates its
fertility objectives and the consequences of not achieving these
objectives.
"Planners, demographers and friendly donors pointed out that a
10-year delay in achieving an NRR [net reproduction rate] = 1
from 1990 would result in an increase of 12 million people by
the turn of the century; an additional 2.1 million tons of food
grains to maintain the current meagre average per capita intake
of 16 ounces per day; an additional work force of 3.1 million;
an increase in the number of children of school-going age by
about 8 million. The social and economic cost of absorbing this
addition would be enormous. Being fully aware of the social and
economic costs and consequences of accelerated growth of
population, the Government declared population as the number one
problem and the population control programme as a high-priority
programme, and commits itself to bring down the rate of growth
of population to 1.8 per cent by 1990 with a view of achieving
NRR = 1 by 2000 at the latest". (United Nations, 1990a)
The Government of Pakistan also maintains that a reduction of
its population growth rates is extremely critical for socio-economic
development. Unless it succeeds in reducing the country's population
growth rate, the Government foresees rising unemployment, illiteracy,
overcrowded cities, strained social services and over-stretched basic
facilities. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif spoke of the dire
consequences of rapid population growth and the reasons for previous
failures of population policies, in his address to the National
Population Conference in Islamabad on 11 July 1991:
"Population growth has a direct impact on national progress and
development and indeed on the well-being of the people. Popu-
lation in Pakistan is growing at a rate of 3.1 per cent. At the
current rate of growth, it would double in 23 years. It means
that even if we succeed in doubling our food output, our schools
and colleges, our hospitals and clinics, our roads and highways
and the number of housing units, the standard of living of our
people would not have improved a bit at the end of the year
2014. ... It is indeed regrettable that despite a run of 40
years, this programme has produced no results. ... I believe
success has eluded this programme so far because of the lack of
proper liaison between the people and those who had to carry the
programme to the nooks and corners of Pakistan".
Indonesia's Population Policy aims at promoting smaller and more
prosperous families. Efforts are being made to increase community
participation in the management and implementation of family planning
services. Although free family planning services are available at
government health centres and hospitals, campaigns have been launched
to motivate and encourage couples to buy their family planning
supplies from private medical sources. Tax-disincentives, income-
generating activities for acceptors of family planning, and efforts
to improve the status of women are some of the strategies intended
to reduce the country's population growth rate to 1.9 per cent per
year by 1994 (Government of Indonesia, 1990).
In addition to the various policies of directly regulating
population growth, many Asian countries have built incentives and
disincentives into their family planning programmes to influence the
choices of the number and the spacing of children in each family.
In China, for example, those who sign the one-child pledge receive
cash awards (UNDP, 1989). The Government of India offers additional
retirement benefits for families having a limited number of children.
In Bangladesh, female participants in family planning programmes
receive a new sari (UNFPA, 1990b). Some countries such as
Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Thailand have used community-based
schemes to promote social responsibility. Rewards in the form of
employment projects are given to communities on the basis of their
family planning records.
Population growth rates have moderated in many countries in East
and South-east Asia. However, growth rates are still high in a
number of South Asian countries, partly as a result of pervasive
poverty, illiteracy, especially among women, and limited access to
family planning.
D. Western Asia
With few exceptions, the population growth rates of countries
in the Western Asia region average about 3 per cent per year.
However, in contrast to the other regions, nearly all the countries
of Western Asia, with the exception of Turkey and Jordan, view their
population growth rates as either satisfactory or too low.
High fertility rates in the region (women are likely to bear six
to eight children during their reproductive years) are usually
attributed to a combination of sociocultural factors. These include
early marriage, pro-natalist attitudes, non-availability or non-
acceptance of contraception, and low participation of women in the
labour force (UNFPA, 1984).
The health hazards of excessive fertility and the young age
structure of the population have recently led to wider acceptance of
the health rationale for family planning. There is also increased
awareness of the need to bring population growth rates under control.
In response to the Sixth Population Inquiry, Cyprus, Iraq,
Israel, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia expressed strong pro-natalist
sentiments. Several pro-natalist countries of the region encourage
population growth through a combination of policies aimed at
encouraging fertility, reducing mortality and affecting immigration.
Four Governments (Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen) reported
that they view their population growth rates as satisfactory. Yemen
and Syria have indirect policies to influence fertility as well as
population growth. These include providing educational opportunities
for women and improving access to health and educational services.
Although Turkey and Jordan view their population growth rates
as too high, only Turkey has implemented population policies aimed
at reducing growth rates. When compared with the other countries of
the region, Turkey's population growth rate of about 2 per cent per
year is relatively low. Nevertheless, the Government has adopted
population policies aimed at reducing the growth rate to 1.8 per cent
by the year 2000 (United Nations, 1991).
III. Policy Responses to Sectoral Issues
A. Health
Governments generally view expenditures on health as major
investments in human-capital formation. Human capital, they believe,
is an indispensable factor in the attainment of sustained socio-
economic development. In light of this, many Governments have
endorsed the 1978 Alma Ata Declaration that called for "Health for
All by the year 2000."
India's Eighth Five-Year Plan (1992-1997) (Government of India,
1992) reflects this view: "Health of the people is not only a
desirable goal but also an essential investment in human resources.
The National Health Policy reiterated India's commitment to attaining
Health for All by 2000 A.D. Primary health care has been accepted
as the main instrument for achieving this goal."
Governments tend to see enormous difficulties in attaining the
goal of "Health for All" in the face of rapid population growth,
however. A case in point is the view on this issue expressed in
Sierra Leone's National Population Policy Document adopted in 1989:
"Continuously rapid population growth makes the achievement of
this goal much more difficult at least on two scores. First,
the number of high-health-risk persons such as women in their
reproductive span and children below five will increase rapidly.
Second, the growth in the total population, taking into account
the existing shortfalls in health-care coverage, will stretch
to the utmost resources: financial; qualified staff; equipment;
etc." (Government of Sierra Leone, 1989)
A number of other Governments (for example, Lesotho, Nigeria,
Ghana and India) have similarly noted that rapid population growth
will adversely affect health and, consequently, the quality of human
capital through household and sectoral effects. At the household
level, women will be restricted from furthering their education and
accepting employment outside the home due to the detrimental effects
of frequent and excessive child-bearing. Moreover, too-closely
spaced children tend to have health problems which may impact
negatively on their educational and skills development.
A similar view is endorsed by the Government of the Philippines
(1990): "Continued high fertility is thus expected to worsen
malnutrition, maternal, infant and child mortality, and poor
performance in school. Such conditions combine to lower the quality
of family life in the short run and the quality of human resources
in the long run."
At the macro level, some Governments foresee increasing
pressures on the quantity and quality of health-care systems arising
from rapid population growth. Maintaining quantity and improving
quality generally require diverting resources needed for investment
in agriculture and industry. This difficulty is further magnified
in countries with structural adjustment programmes and huge debt-
servicing requirements. Thus, in some cases, the net effect of rapid
population growth would be a decline in per capita health
expenditure, with adverse impact on human-capital development.
In terms of policy orientation, many Governments have integrated
family planning into their primary health-care systems. Family
planning information and services are thus provided not only to
improve maternal and infant health and well-being but also to
influence the number and spacing of births.
B. Education
In the context of socio-economic development, Governments view
education, like health, as an investment of human-capital formation.
The quality and amounts of education provided largely determine the
skills and productivity of the labour force. More importantly,
Governments see the educational level of the labour force as a major
determinant of a country's capability to utilize and develop new and
cost-effective technologies for the development of physical and
technical infrastructure. They also see education as a key component
in strategies for reducing population growth rates. Literate people,
they recognize, take better advantage of family planning, and
educated women tend to have fewer children. Thus, providing
educational opportunities for women may not only promote greater
productivity, but may also help reduce population growth rates.
President Soeharto of Indonesia stressed the impact of education
in his country (Soeharto, 1989): "One of the results of development,
namely the rising level of education, has had a substantial impact
on the decline of the population growth rate. In general, wider and
higher education has broadened the community's horizon for further
advance and acceptance of new ideas and innovations, including a
perception of the future, the motivation to have only a small family,
responsibility towards children, marriage at a more mature age, and
so forth."
Against this background, most Government development plans
include policies aimed at reducing illiteracy, increasing primary
enrolment, and developing a pool of scientific and technical talent
to achieve rapid technical progress in a number of fields. Many
Govern-ments, however, see rapid population growth as seriously
hindering their ability to attain these targets. Many see
difficulties in maintaining current levels of their educational
systems; indeed, most actually foresee an overall deterioration.
A typical reaction to the negative consequences of population
growth for education is that of the Government of Lesotho, which
projects its population will double in less than three decades:
"The existing number of 171 secondary schools and 1,181 primary
schools needs to be doubled simply to maintain current levels
of educational facilities, but the resources needed for these
will be enormous, which will be difficult to ensure under the
prevailing economic situation. At present in primary and
secondary schools, student-teacher ratios are respectively 56:1
and 26:1. This situation is bound to deteriorate if needed
resources to appoint more teachers and build more schools
commensurate with the growing number of school-age population
cannot be provided. Whatever progress so far achieved in the
education sector cannot be sustained, rather it will
deteriorate. Per capita educational expenditure will be less
and less, and thus, the quality of education cannot be ensured."
(Government of Lesotho, 1992)
Most Governments contend that primary education must necessarily
compete for resources with other priority sectors of the education
system, such as vocational and technical schools, education pro-
grammes for women, and adult literacy programmes. Rapidly rising
primary school enrolment due to rapid population growth will pose
difficult choices in terms of priority and funding in the overall
education budget. In many instances, resources that might have been
directed towards primary education are diverted to technical and
vocational education. These decisions usually have adverse long-term
implications for the quality of primary education, ultimately leading
to a reduction in the quality of human capital and a further
exacerbation of income inequalities.
To counter these detrimental effects on education, Governments
pursue population policies that focus on fertility declines through
family planning, together with mutually reinforcing programmes to
provide health care, adult literacy, and career opportunities for
women independent of child-bearing.
C. Labour Force and Employment
For most Governments, rising unemployment and widespread
underemployment have been seen as a major cause of poverty and
underdevelopment. Thus, one of the key objectives of Government
plans is to generate a sufficient number of productive and
remunerative jobs. India's Eighth Five-Year Plan expresses a common
concern:
"The phenomenon of growing unemployment has of late emerged as
a major problem and therefore the expansion of employment
opportunities has to be the central objective of the planning
effort. An accelerated expansion of employment opportunities is
necessary both for poverty alleviation and the effective
utilization of human resources for economic and social
development of the country." (Government of India, 1992)
Governments generally share the view of the Philippines that
rapid population growth is further aggravating the problems of
unemployment (Government of the Philippines, 1992): "A continued
rapid population growth rate also means more people entering the
labour force, exerting even greater pressure on employment
generation, given the already large number of unemployed and
underemployed." Some Governments foresee not only pressure on the
unemployment situation but also a concomitant rise in social and
political unrest, which in turn would make demands for non-productive
investment in security forces or in disguised unemployment
programmes.
In policy orientation, most Governments view a reduction in the
population growth rate through fertility reduction as a way of
alleviating the problem. They are aware, however, that policies to
reduce population growth may not exert a significant short-term
impact on unemployment problems in the short run, since most of the
expected entrants into the labour force have already been born.
Nevertheless, in the long term, they see a decline in fertility as
having a positive impact on the employment situation. This view has
been put forward by a number of Governments, including Kenya, Nigeria
and Thailand. Sierra Leone's National Population Policy Document
(Government of Sierra Leone, 1989) states, "A fall in fertility can
help to provide the future labour force entrants with better health,
nutrition, education and training, etc., and extra matching
productive investment to brighten the employment aspects."
Many Governments (India, Nigeria and Thailand, for example) have
made projections of future employment prospects based on targets of
fertility declines. The Nigerian Government offered this rationale
for its present population policy aimed at reducing the total
fertility rate:
"With a decline in the total fertility rate to four children,
the population over the same period of 20 years will be 80
million less than when total fertility is placed between six and
seven. Given the present rate of our economic development via
the ongoing Structural Adjustment Programme and with an average
number of children by a family kept at four, full employment can
be envisaged." (New Nigeria, 1992)
In their attempt to lower fertility rates, Governments generally
pursue policies and programmes aimed at reducing mortality and
increasing life expectancy through integrated family planning and
primary health care. Emphasis is usually placed on improving the
status of women through a combination of education, health and
employment programmes. This tends to produce improvements in life
expectancy and the status of women, and reductions in mortality
(especially at the youngest ages), inducing lower fertility. This
in turn impacts positively on employment through reductions in labour
supply and by improving the quality of the new entrants to the labour
force.
Many Governments note that a larger labour force can be an asset
if it is well trained, well educated and healthy and if it is
equipped with capital equipment and infrastructure. However,
Governments of countries with continuing high population growth rates
see a large labour force as a liability.
D. Income distribution
Some Governments (for example, Botswana, India and Thailand)
have noted that rapid population growth exacerbates income
inequality.
In Thailand, the Government recognizes that declines in
fertility have helped to accelerate a more equitable distribution of
health, education and employment opportunities, all of which tend to
impact positively on income distribution. In its Seventh National
Economic and Social Development Plan (1992-1996), the Government
outlined its income distribution targets by focusing on the poor and
disadvantaged groups, and noted that its ability to improve income
distribution by 1996 will depend largely on whether the population
growth rate can be reduced to 1.2 per cent by that year. Fertility
is a major concern of Thailand's development policy. To achieve
fertility reduction, Thailand has relied on a government-sponsored
and -implemented national family planning programme (Government of
Thailand, 1992).
Botswana, with a very rapid population growth rate of over 3 per
cent per year, dealt with income distribution in its Seventh National
Development Plan (1991-1996). The issue is to be addressed through
creating income-earning opportunities, in combination with a compre-
hensive population policy that calls for reducing the rate of
population growth and improving family planning and education
Government of Botswana, 1991, and UNFPA, 1992a).
E. Savings
Several Governments (for example, India, Namibia, the
Philippines, Turkey and Yemen) have expressed alarm over the
detrimental effects of rapid population growth on the generation of
savings for productive investment. High fertility reduces the
ability of families to accumulate private savings that would finance
development efforts. From a societal point of view, high fertility,
which usually means a high proportion of population under age 15,
leads to a diversion of resources from productive capital investments
to expansion of less-productive services such as health care and
education.
These perceptions were endorsed in India's Seventh Five-Year
Development Plan, which proposed a target net reproduction rate (NRR)
of 1 by the year 2001, together with policies aimed at reducing
mortality rates considerably in order to encourage the intended
decline in fertility (United Nations, 1992a).
A similar view is contained in Yemen's National Population
Strategy 1990-2000: "At the national level, the growing numbers of
births burden the Government with increasing budgetary demands for
education, health, public housing and other essentials of life, and
thereby limit its ability to direct sufficient financial resources
to capital formation" (Government of Yemen, 1992). The strategy
calls for choosing family planning policies and programmes that help
to reduce population growth rates to "safe" levels, using all
available resources and channels without explicit fertility targets.
IV. Some Changing Perceptions
This section focuses on countries where Governments have
hitherto viewed their population growth rates as satisfactory, and
considered population as an issue that could be dealt with through
social and economic changes. Recently, a combination of environmental
and socio-economic factors has led them to take a fresh look at rapid
pop-ulation growth and its implications for sustainable development.
Some countries have come to the view that population issues,
particularly population growth, may be addressed directly and should
not be viewed exclusively as a consequence of socio-economic policies
and changes.
Tables 1 and 2 show the changes in perception over the period
1976-1991. Below, some examples are given of changes in the views
of individual Governments (United Nations, 1992b and 1990a, and
UNFPA, 1991).
Malawi: In its response to the Sixth Population Inquiry, the
Government emphasized the right of families to have as many children
as they wish. Nevertheless, the Government acknowledged that rapid
population growth is making it increasingly difficult to provide
adequate social services, especially for the younger age groups.
There also are growing concerns about the detrimental impacts of
rapid population growth on food production, the availability of
arable land, literacy and employment.
The Government does not have a specific population policy at
present. However, it has been providing child-spacing services in
an effort to improve the health of mothers and children. The
Government is also using a variety of population education programmes
to inform its people of the implications of a rapidly growing
population for economic development (Marshall, A., 1989, and Republic
of Malawi, 1992, pp. 7-10 and p. 17).
Zambia: The Government previously dismissed the importance of
population to development. Recently, however, there has been a
change of perception regarding the role of population in the develop-
ment process (see box above), stemming from a growing realization
that Zambia's present population growth rate of about 3.8 per cent
per year would imply a doubling of its population in less than 20
years. In light of this, the Government announced details of a
population policy as part of its Fourth National Development Plan.
The policy is comprehensive in response to nationally perceived
developmental problems. It also calls for a reduction in total
fertility rate of about seven per woman to six by the year 2000 and
to four by 2015.
Syrian Arab Republic: The Government has expressed concern about
the relatively young age structure of the country's population. In
the past, it took the view that the population problem could be
solved through social and economic development. However, the
pressure of population growth on social services has led to a gradual
change in perception regarding the role of population in the
development process. Increasingly, policies aimed at influencing
population growth directly are considered a viable option (UNFPA,
1992c, and UNDP, 1990).
Jordan: The Government is concerned about the age structure of
Jordan's population: about 40 per cent of the population is under age
15. Although it has no official policy statement on population
growth, the Government is attempting to lower the population growth
rate by focusing on measures that would have an impact on fertility
and limit immigration.
Congo: Although the official position of the Government is still
pro-natalist, the detrimental effects of rapid population growth on
overall economic development have become a major concern.
Specifically, concerns about the employment situation, the
availability of food and increased rural-urban migration are now
changing the Government's perception of its rapidly growing
population.
Recently, the Government began to draft a population policy
aimed at confronting rapid population growth on many fronts:
improving health services for mothers and children; improving women's
status by providing them with educational and employment
opportunities; and improving education, health and nutrition services
for the population as a whole. In addition, a number of rural
development projects have been proposed to stem rural-urban migration
and environmental degradation (Government of the Congo, 1992, and
UNDP, 1991a).
Bhutan: In its response to the Sixth Population Inquiry, the
Government reported that it viewed its population growth rate as too
low. The number of people was seen to be relatively small in
relation to the country's development objectives. The Government
foresaw population growth as helping to increase the labour supply,
thus reducing reliance on foreign workers.
In the past three years, however, the Government's perception
of Bhutan's population growth rate has changed, as a result of the
increasing pressure of population growth on arable land and the
environment. Although the population is sparse and small, its
density in terms of arable land is comparable to the most-populated
areas in South Asia. Faced with an annual population growth rate of
about 2.3 per cent, the Government has recognized family planning as
a tool for reducing fertility and maternal and infant mortality
(UNFPA, 1992b).
V. Concluding Remarks
That rapid population growth puts enormous pressures on many
aspects of a nation's economy has been the common perception of
Governments of most developing countries. In policy orientation with
respect to population growth and economic development, Governments,
with few exceptions, share the view that a comprehensive population
policy must be integrated with development planning.
Increasingly, many Governments are incorporating into their
population policies and programmes the key factors that determine
family size. These include, women's role and status in society,
maternal and child health care, information about and access to
family planning services, family income, and education for women.
There is also a growing awareness that all these factors tend to be
mutually reinforcing if they are introduced simultaneously.
Moreover, Governments of developing countries largely agree that
a reduction in family size can make a direct contribution to better
health, education and nutrition at both the household and national
levels. They are aware that the benefits for economic development
derive not just from slower population growth itself, but from all
the factors associated with it.
Governments of many developing countries are increasingly con-
cerned about the challenges rapid population growth poses for
sustained and sustainable development and prosperity in the coming
decades. In the face of rapid population growth, many developing
countries are struggling to keep pace with the basic needs of their
people. A large share of investment is required merely to maintain
the same level of capital investment per person. The inability to
increase capital investment per person, in turn, impedes development
of human resources.
The successes of some population programmes (e.g., in China,
Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, Thailand
and Tunisia) in slowing national population growth rates have not
gone unnoticed. Countries with slower population growth tend to have
higher savings and investment ratios and faster-growing per capita
income than countries with rapid population growth. In addition,
several countries not only have managed to slow their population
growth rates, but in the process have also achieved improvements in
education, health and availability of female labour. This has placed
them in a better position to attract foreign investment and to move
up the ladder of industrial development.
In light of this, Governments of developing countries are
placing a high priority on addressing rapid population growth and its
interconnection with socio-economic development. The successful
implementation of population programmes, however, will largely depend
on political commitment and the coordination of efforts between
government agencies and NGOs.
Some developing countries with high population growth rates must
devote a large share of export earnings towards interest payments on
external debts. In addition, many of these countries have
implemented Structural Adjustment Programmes. Against this
background, these Governments are finding it increasingly difficult
to allocate resources for policy measures aimed at reducing
population growth rates.
In general, many developing countries are aware that
developmental processes take time, but time is not on their side.
Many believe success will depend on action to reduce family size in
the very near future. Finally, rapid urbanization and increasing
rural-urban migration, together with deforestation, soil erosion and
other ecological and environmental concerns, have also become a part
of the population-growth issue. There is a growing recognition that
attention to population issues can help to achieve not only balanced
economic growth but also ecological balance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1:Perceptions and Interventions of Governments with Respect to
Population Growth
=====================================================================
Third Population Inquiry,
1976(111 countries)
=====================================================================
Perception: Africa Asia & Pacific
Growth too Camercoon Bhutan
low; C.A.R. Cambodia
Intervention Cote d'Ivoire Laos
to raise Eq. Guinea DPR Korea
rate Gabon Mongolia
Libya Nauru
L. Am. & Carrib. W. Asia
Argentina Kuwait
Bahamas Oman
Paraguay Qatar
Uruguay S. Arabia
U.A.R.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 21]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Perception: Africa L. Am. & Carriib.
Growth Algeria Bolivia
satisfactory Benin Brazil
Burkina Faso Chile
Burundi Cuba
Cape Verde Guyana
Chad Honduras
Ethiopia Panama
Gambia Peru
Guinea Surinam
Mali Venezuela
Malawi
Mauritania Asia & Pacific
Niger Afghanisan
Rwanda Maldives
Sao Tome Myanmar
Somalia Singapore
Sudan
Tanzania W. Asia
Togo Bahrain
Zaire Iraq
Zambia Jordan
Lebanon
Syria
Yemen
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 42]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Perception: Africa Guatemala
Growth too high; Botswana Haiti
Intervention Comoros Jamaica
to lower rate Egypt Mexico
Ghana Nicaragua
Kenya Trin. & Tob.
Lesotho
Liberia Asia & Pacific
Mauritius Bangladesh
Madagascar China
Morocco Fiji
Senegal India
Seychelles Indonesia
Sierra Leone Iran
Swaziland Rep. of Korea
Tunisia Malaysia
Uganda Nepal
Pakistan
L. Am. & Carrib. Papua N.G.
Barbados Philippines
Colombia Sri Lanka
Costa rica Thailand
Dominican Rep. Tonga
Ecuador Viet Nam
El Salvador W. Samoa
Grenada
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total 46]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Other perceptions Africa
and/or Congo
intervention Guinea-Bissau
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total 2]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
=====================================================================
Sixth Population Inquiry
1988(129 countries)
=====================================================================
Perception: Africa Loas
Growth too Eq. Guinea DPR Korea
low; Gabon Nauru
Intervention
to raise rate L. Am. & Carrib. W. Asia
Uruguay Iraq
Oman
Asia & Pacific Qatar
Cambodia S. Arabia
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 11]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Perception: Africa Colombia
Growth Angola Cuba
satisfactory Benin Guatemala
Burkina Faso Guyana
Chad Panama
Djibouti Paraguay
Guinea Suriname
Libya Venezuela
Mali
Mauritania Asia & Pacific
Mauritius Brunei
Namibia Fiji
Sao Tome Maldives
Somalia Myanmar
Sudan Vanuatu
Togo
Zaire W. Asia
Bahrain
L. Am. & Carrib. Kuwait
Antigua Lebanon
Bahamas Syrian
Belize Yemen
Brazil
Chile
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 39]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Perception: Africa Haiti
Growth too high; Algeria Honduras
Intervention Botswana Jamaica
to lower rate Burundi Mexico
Cameroon Nicaragua
Cape Verde Peru
Comoros Saint Kitts
Egypt Saint Lucia
Gambia Saint Vincent
Ghana Trin. & Tob.
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya Asia & Pacific
Lesotho Bangladesh
Liberia China
Madagascar India
Morocco Indonesia
Niger Iran
Nigeria Kiribati
Rwanda Rep. of Korea
Senegal Marshall Is.
Seychelles Micronesia
Swaziland Mongolia
Tunisia Nepal
Uganda Pakistan
Zambia Philippines
Zimbabwe Samoa
Solomon Is.
L. Am. & Carrib. Sri Lanka
Barbados Thailand
Costa Rica Tonga
Dominica Tuvalu
Dom. Rep. Viet Nam
Ecuador
El Salvador
Grenada
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 62]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Other perceptions Africa Asia & Pacific
and/or C.A.R. Afghanistan
intervention Congo Bhutan
Cote d'Ivoire Malaysia
Ethiopia Papua N.G.
Malawi Singapore
Mozambique
Sierra Leone W. Asia
Tanzania Jordan
U.A.R.
L. Am. & Carrib.
Argentina
Bolivia
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 17]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 2: Perceptions and Interventions of Governments with Respect
to Fertility Levels
=====================================================================
Third Population Inquiry
1976(112 countries)
=====================================================================
Perception: Africa Uruguay
Fertility too Gabon
low; Intervention Libya Asia & Pacific
to raise rate Cambodia
L. Am. & Carrib.
Argentina
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 5]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Perception: Africa Bolivia
Fertility Algeria Cuba
satisfactory Benin Guyana
Burkina Faso Paraguay
Cape Verde Peru
Chad Surinam
Congo Venezuela
Cote d'Ivoire Asia Pacific
Ethiopia Bhutan
Gambia Laos
Guinea DPR Korea
Guinea-Bissau Maldives
Mali Mongolia
Malawi Myanmar
Mauritania Nauru
Mozambique Singapore
Niger
Nigeria W. Asia
Sao Tome Iraq
Somalia Kuwait
Sudan Lebanon
Tanzania Oman
Togo Qatar
Zaire S. Arabia
Zambia Syria
U.A.R.
L. Am. & Carrib. Yemen
Bahamas
Brazil
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 51]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Perception: Africa Papua N.G.
Fertility too Botswana Phlippines
high; Egypt Nepal
Intervention Ghana Sri Lanka
to lower rate Kenya Thailand
Lesotho Tonga
Mauritius Viet Nam
Morocco W. Samoa
Seychelles
Swaziland
Tunisia
Uganda
L. Am. & Carrib.
Barbados
Colombia
Dominican Rep.
El Salvador
Grenada
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Trin. & Tob.
Asia & Pacific
Bangladesh
China
Fiji
India
Iran
Indonesia
Rep. of Korea
Malaysia
Pakistan
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 38]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Other perceptions Africa Ecuador
and/or C.A.R. Guatemala
interventions Cameroon Nicaragua
Comoros Panama
Eq. Guinea
Liberia Asia Pacific
Madagascar Afghanistan
Rwanda
Senegal W. Asia
Sierra Leone Bahrain
Jordan
L. Am. & Carrib.
Chile
Costa Rica
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 38]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Perceptions Africa Ecuador
and/or C.A.R. Guatemala
interventions Cameroon Nicaragua
Eq. Guinea Panama
Liberia
Madagascar Asia & Pacific
Rwanda Afghanistan
Senegal
Sierra Leone W. Asia
Bahrain
L. Am. & Carrib. Jordan
Chile
costa Rica
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 18]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
=====================================================================
Sixth Population Inquiry
1988 (129 countries)
=====================================================================
Perception: Africa
Fertility too low; Eq. Guinea
Intervention Gabon
to raise rate
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 2]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Perception: Africa Asia & Pacific
Fertility Benin Bhutan
satisfactory Chad Brunei
Djibouti DPR Korea
Libya Laos
Mali Maldives
Mauritania Myanmar
Namibia Nauru
Sao Tome Vanuatu
Somalia
Sudan W Asia
Togo Bahrain
Zaire Lebanon
Oman
L. Am. & Carrib. Qatar
Antigua S. Arabia
Argentina Syria
Bahamas U.A.R.
Barbados
Belize
Brazil
Chile
Cuba
Guyana
Panama
Paraguay
Suriname
Venezuela
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 41]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Perception: Africa Haiti
Fertility too Algeria Honduras
high; Angola Jamaica
Intervention Botswana Mexico
to lower rate Burkina Faso Nicaragua
Burundi Peru
Cameroon Saint Kitts
Cape Verde Saint Vincent
Comoros Trin. & Tob.
Egypt
Gambia Asia & Pacific
Ghana Bangladesh
Guinea-Bissau China
Kenya Fiji
Lesotho India
Liberia Indonesia
Madagascar Iran
Morocco Kiribati
Niger Malaysia
Nigeria Marshall Is.
Rwanda Micronesia
Senegal Mongolia
Seychelles Pakistan
Swaziland Philippines
Tunisia Nepal
Uganda Samoa
Zambia Solomon Is.
Zimbabwe Sri Lanka
Thailand
L. Am. & Carrib. Tonga
Costa Rica Tuvalu
Dominica Viet Nam
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador W. Asia
El Salvador Jordan
Grenada Yemen
Guatemala
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 66]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Other perceptions Africa Saint Lucia
and/or C.A.R. Uruguay
intervention Congo
Cote d'Ivoire Asia & Pacific
Ethiopia Afghanistan
Guinea Cambodia
Malawi Rep. of Korea
Mozambique Papua N.G.
Sierra Leone Singapore
Tanzania
W. Asia
L. Am. & Carrib. Iraq
Bolivia Kuwait
Colombia
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[Total: 20]
---------------------------------------------------------------------