UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
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For further information please contact the United Nations Population Fund
at 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017 USA or via E-mail:
vlassoff@unfpa.org
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FROM: Population Growth and Economic Development: Report on the
Consultative Meeting of Economists Convened by the United Nations
Population Fund, 28-29 September 1992, New York. New York:UNFPA, 1993.
INTRODUCTION
The September 1992 Consultative Meeting of Economists on the
Relationship of Population Growth and Economic Development was
convened to discuss the various effects that rapid population growth
have on economic and social development, and to assess the importance
of such effects. The issue has drawn the attention of economists
world-wide, and has been addressed by numerous studies in the post-
World War II period. The last major analysis of research on this
theme took place in 1986, when the U.S. National Academy of Sciences
(NAS) published Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy
Questions.
The world's population, estimated at nearly 5.5 billion in 1992,
continues to grow rapidly; at present rates of growth it will double
in 40 years. Some 94 per cent of the annual increase is currently
taking place in developing countries. Urban growth in these
countries is particularly high, estimated at 4.2 per cent annually.
While this rapid population growth remains cause for serious
concern, many countries have made remarkable achievements infor-
mulating population policies and providing accessible family planning
services. Many policy makers and non-population analysts are not
fully aware of this progress. Today, about half of all couples in
developing countries are users of family planning, up from 12-14
percent only two decades ago. The average number of births per woman
inthe developing world has fallen from 6 to 3.8, a drop of more than
37 per cent, in the same time period. This gives reason for optimism
that cost-effective interventions can make a major impact on
population trends in other developing countries in a relatively short
span of time.
And in many countries, policy makers' perceptions of the
impact of rapid population are changing. The August 1992 Summit
Meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement in Jakarta emphasized in its
final communiqu‚ that population growth exacerbates problems of
socio-economic development.
Although dramatic reductions in fertility continue to be made
in a growing number of countries, the transition to low fertility has
barely begun in many more countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and
Latin America; population growth in these countries remains at
unprecedented levels. UNFPA estimates that at least 120 million
couples world-wide want to limit or space child-bearing, but lack
access to adequate family planning services.
Despite the evident strains that rapid population growth is putting
on natural resources and social services in many developing countries,
many economists take an "agnostic" position regarding the relationship
between population growth and economic development. Many have not
given population the attention it deserves. Some even consider it
"neutral" or unimportant.
As the background paper reviewing recent research into this
topic shows, rapid population growth clearly constrains develop-ment,
via its negative effects on income distribution and the development
of human resources. Other linkages, for example, a negative effect
of population growth on savings and productive investments, have not
been clearly established on the basis of existing data and analytical
methods. And economists presently seem unable to answer satis-
factorily the question of just how detrimental rapid population
growth is to development.
One School of thought holds that "population problems will
solve themselves as socio-economic development proceeds". This
school's theoretical prediction of a gradual decline in fertility
in lock step with development has not been borne out by recent
events, however. Where fertility rates have fallen dramatically
in the late 1970s and 1980s, the declines have been far too abrupt
to have been brought about solely or even largely by economic
improvements. For instance, Brazil's total fertility rate has
plunged over the past decade, while the country has suffered one
of the worst economic slumps in its history. In the Indian state
of Kerala, fertility has fallen and family planning has spread
despite economic stagnation.
Some other economists adopt a laissez-faire attitude to popu-
lation growth for different reasons. They contend that population
growth forms part of a self-regulating mechanism: as population puts
pressure on other parts of the economy, relative prices will shift,
making large families less attractive, and thus will induce a
transition to lower fertility.
Again, however, evidence from the past 15 years casts doubt on
this line of thought. In many countries, the trend in fertility has
diverged greatly from economic trends, providing ample evidence that
reproductive behaviour is not overridingly determined by economic
circumstances alone. The sudden and swift drops in fertility
registered in several countries are difficult to explain by the
gradual shifts in relative prices that have occurred over the same
period. Many local instances can be cited where use of family
planning services increased dramatically once these services were
established and real access to them was assured. The point is that
instead of waiting for long-term supply-and-demand interactions to
lower fertility, faster and more dramatic results can be induced by
interventions that relieve pent-up demand for family planning
services.
The influence economic growth has upon fertility seems to be far
weaker than that which changes in population growth may have on
economic growth. Some of the most crucial linkages are in regard to
education and employment.
In much of Africa, for instance, demand for primary school
education is doubling every 20 or so years as a result of
demographic pressure alone. Enrolment rates in much of sub-Saharan
Africa actually declined in the 1980s; population growth rates of 3-4
per cent annually were evidently a major factor in this decline.
This is not only a social tragedy, but an economic one with far-
reaching consequences for African countries' future capacities to
develop.
Rapid population growth also seems to have obvious economic
consequences for the labour force and the attendant problems of
unemployment and underemployment. The burgeoning youth population,
found in so many developing countries with high rates of population
growth, often seems to overwhelm the efforts of Governments and the
private sector to generate productive employment. The contrast
between sub-Saharan Africa, with its high rates of population growth,
high unemployment and economic stagnation, and the dynamic economies
of low-population-growth, low-unemployment East Asia is readily
apparent.
In a number of Asian countries, notably South Korea, Taiwan
and Thailand, success in boosting family planning and lowering
fertility has preceded economic booms.
UNFPA has crudely estimated the costs involved in providing
affordable, convenient contraceptive services to the 300 million
couples who currently lack access to such services to be around $9
billion annually (in 1989 dollars) by the year 2000, about double the
current level of spending. It seems obvious that the benefits to
society would far outweigh this relatively low level of expenditure.
Estimating the value of these benefits, some of which are direct but
others indirect and long-range, poses an important challenge for
economists.
Even though population and family planning programmes are
funded mainly by national Governments in partnership with national
non-governmental organizations, an increased level of international
assistance is needed, particularly to help the least developed and
other low-income countries. International assistance for population
on a per capita basis has actually declined since the early 1970s,
after adjusting for inflation: expressed in constant 1985 dollars,
total international commitments for 1970-1979 averaged $415 million
annually; in 1990, the figure was 32 per cent higher, $549 million,
while the number of women at risk in developing countries increased
by 50 per cent over 1970-1990. Economic arguments need to be
marshalled to convince international donors to give higher priority
to population assistance.
Under the overall theme of population, sustained economic
growth and sustainable development, the 1994 International Conference
on Population and Development will aim to strengthen awareness of
population issues, provide some highly focused recommendations for
action, and enhance the mobilization of resources needed in
developing countries. Further conceptual clarification of the
relationship of population growth to economic development should be
an important part of the Conference preparatory process. It is hoped
that the present volume will help in this process.