Southpac News

Since the 1960s Niue's population has been in continuous decline, from a peak in 1966 of over 5,000 to just over 2,000 in 1994. Currently, it is estimated that the population size has fallen further to about 1,700. This has been largely due to out-migration but also because of the fall in fertility, whereby the total fertility rate (TFR) had dropped to 3.0 by 1997, the year of the last census of population. Since citizens of Niue carry New Zealand passports under the terms of the constitution, it is very easy for them to enter New Zealand. Indeed, over the last three decades, out-migration has continued such that the population of Niueans or part-Niueans in New Zealand now exceeds 18,000.

Despite this, social indicators are impressive on Niue, with life expectancy exceeding 70 years, the infant mortality rate is 18 per 1000 live births and the school enrolment rate of those aged 5-16 is 98%. Niue’s income per capita remains unmeasured but the level of per capita assistance from New Zealand exceeds US$1,500, although this is on the decline. The government’s main development strategy, in order to reverse the decline in the population, is to establish opportunities for the private sector to expand to offset the downsizing of the public sector, largely using niche tourism as a growth pole. However, such a strategy faces constraints from the small size of the domestic market in Niue, the lack of foreign investment, and the dependence on an overpriced air fare by an unreliable foreign airline to bring tourists to Niue.

Because of the dwindling size of the population, significant demographic changes are apparent, including the ageing of the population (13% over 60 years) and high dependency (85 per 100 working age population). Specialised skilled labour is scarce in Niue, due to out-migration, and those that remain need to be multi-skilled, with the result that, perhaps, their competence in any one skill is deficient.

Some people are pessimistic in Niue as the population continues to decline, perhaps eventually below a sustainable level. What seems clear is that, with free access to New Zealand guaranteed to Niueans, out-migration will continue unless the economy, particularly the tourist sector, is rejuvenated. And the major bottleneck is the high cost and unreliable air service between New Zealand and Niue and Tonga and Niue.

The Premier of Niue is fully conversant with these constraints and has plans to rent two 20-seater aircraft to improve links with Niue’s major tourist markets. Other initiatives planned to kick-start the economy include improved tourist infrastructure, the establishment of an information technology centre on Niue and the attraction of garment manufacturing to the island. All these proposals need to be extensively assessed through exercises in cost-benefit analysis.

An additional constraint on development planning in Niue is the woefully weak state of statistical information emanating from the Statistics Office. The Government Statistician left Niue for New Zealand at the end of 1998 for further studies. While the last population census had been conducted in 1997 (one year late), the report is still in draft form and has not been disseminated. Statistical series on trade, exports and imports, employment, the supply of labour, migration, tourism, the consumer price index and others have become outdated, such that planning in Niue is being undertaken without the essential information required to make it efficient and effective. Much of the problem lies in the inadequate staffing of the Statistics Office.

While New Zealand has been approached to provide a statistician to revitalise the Office and to concentrate on improving the collation of economic statistics, there will remain a large vacuum in demographic information. It will be important to conduct the next population census in 2001 in order to monitor the rapid changes in the demographic situation in the country. This is widely appreciated but the technical expertise to organise a census is currently lacking in Niue. Nor is there any capacity to undertake other demographic-related household surveys such as a Demographic and Health Survey, a Labour Force Survey and an Income and Expenditure Survey, all of which are necessary to monitor the changing impact of migration on the people and economy of Niue.

In the area of reproductive health and family planning, a similar lack of reliable data is evident. According to the 1997 census there were 352 women in Niue between the ages of 20 and 49. There are 71 known contraceptive users that would give a rough minimum estimate of the contraceptive prevalence rate of 20%. However, not all women in this age group are sexually active, their partners may be using a method or they are infecund. Furthermore, some women obtain their contraceptive supplies directly from New Zealand. Given the relatively low and falling TFR it is clear that the true, but unmeasured CPR, exceeds 50%.

Some issues that are problematic include teenage pregnancy (two girls of 14 years of age have become pregnant this year, one of whom was raped, while the rapist was jailed for 7½ years), the lack of counselling for sex offenders, and the limited knowledge and access to services for adolescents. While unmarried youth have access to the FP clinic at the hospital, very few visit the clinic because of the lack of privacy. Parental consent must be sought to provide contraceptives to a girl under 18 years of age. Currently, Niue has no protocol or policy memorandum on the distribution of contraceptives and one, evidently should be formulated.

Other RH problems include the lack of RH awareness by the general public, particularly among adolescents. Equipment for cervical screening is out-dated and awareness-raising materials are required. Domestic violence is suspected to be present but is a ‘silent’ problem in Niue. Cases of infertility have been identified but research on the causes is very limited. Prostate cancer is believed to be on the rise. The RH/FP sister has not received any further updating of her skills since 1981 and this needs to be addressed and means found to allow her access to the RHTP certificate course at the Fiji School of Medicine.

Education is compulsory in Niue to the age of 16, such that the enrolment rate is substantial. Topics in population education are included in a Social Science course, but relevant materials are lacking in topics on Reproductive Health and Family Planning.

Despite the progress made in the social sectors in Niue, this small and isolated country faces the enormous task of deterring continued out-migration which could destroy the very fabric of the community. The generation of income and employment opportunities remains a priority while financial support and technical assistance is needed from donors to improve the information and database for better development planning. Improved access to RH/FP information and services for adolescents is warranted.

By Mr. William House, CST Adviser on Population Policies and Development Strategies

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