UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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This newsletter is being made available by the Population Information
Network (POPIN) of the United Nations Population Division/DESIPA and the
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Population Today
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
December 1996, Vol 24, No. 12
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy
of Population Today have not been included here. For a complete
copy of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population Reference
Bureau,1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C.
20009.
In this issue: ** Census 2000 Plan, Family Planning Aid
Controversial on Capitol Hill ** Are More Immigrants the
Answer to U.S. Population Aging? ** Spotlight on Hong Kong **
News and Resources ** 1996 Annual Index **
*****
Census 2000 Plan, Family Planning Aid Controversial on
Capitol Hill
By Paola Scommegna
Eager to adjourn in early October and under pressure to
prevent a government shut-down, Congress passed a flurry of
spending bills with less of the usual wrangling. Some federal
programs fared quite well. The 2000 Census was not among them.
In the 1970s and 1980s, Congress appropriated most of
what the Commerce Department requested for the decennial
census. Not so nowadays. Congress funded the 2000 Census at
$84.1 million for fiscal 1997, about $20 million short of the
agency's request. Last year's appropriation fell $10 million
short of the amount requested.
While the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of
Economic Analysis also were funded significantly below their
requests, most other federal statistical agencies received
close to what they requested (see table, p. 2).
"Congress tends to think two years ahead at most," said
Ed Spar, executive director of the Council of Professional
Associations on Federal Statistics, a group that follows
government action for federal data users. "Congress wants to
cut funds now, while the Census Bureau is laying the
groundwork for a census four years from now."
Also, the controversy over the 1990 undercount
undermined Congress' confidence in the Census Bureau,
according to Spar.
"Census officials need to do a better job convincing Congress
how the money will be used and what impact the cuts will
have," he said.
That lack of confidence on Capitol Hill was reflected in
opposition to the Census Bureau's 2000 Census plan. To save
money and avoid an undercount, the Census Bureau proposed
reaching at least 90 percent of the households in each county
with the mail-in form or a personal visit, then using
statistical sampling methods to complete the count.
The plan has been altered to respond to criticism from
members of the Congressional Black Caucus. They were concerned
that census workers would focus their efforts on easier-to-
reach suburban residents and use sampling for harder-to-reach
inner-city dwellers, leading to another minority undercount.
The Bureau now plans to begin sampling after reaching 90
percent of each census tract rather than each county. Census
tracts are much smaller and tend to be more homogenous than
counties.
The harshest criticism of the sampling plan came in a
report by the staff of the House subcommittee that oversees
Census Bureau operations. The report, Sampling and Statistical
Adjustment in the Decennial Census: Fundamental Flaws,
questioned whether sampling would improve accuracy. It also
argued that using sampling would undermine public confidence
in the census and open up the final count to political
manipulation.
"While the report doesn't have the force of law, it is a
clear statement of sentiment that the Census Bureau will have
to deal with," said Michael Buckley of the Consortium of
Social Science Associations, a group that lobbies Congress on
behalf of social science research.
He predicts that concerns over sampling will be raised
early in the next congressional session.
Restrictions on international family planning aid continue
Funding for international population programs in the
foreign aid bill also was contentious this fiscal year. The
Administration was able to eliminate the House-passed "Mexico
City" provisions, which would have put restrictions on U.S.
family planning funds that go to agencies that also provide
abortion services overseas. The President is reported to have
threatened to veto the omnibus spending bill (it included
eight other large appropriations bills) if the Mexico City
provisions had been included. But in the final compromise, the
Administration accepted restrictions on the release of
population aid funds similar to those imposed last fiscal
year.
Overall, foreign aid fared better this year than last: A
slight increase brought the total to $12.3 billion. Population
programs through the U.S. Agency for International Development
are funded at no more than $385 million_a compromise between
the House-passed level of $365 and the Senate level of $410.
Although the fiscal year began October 1, the restrictions
prevent this money from being available before July 1, 1997.
The funds then will be released in monthly installments, each
representing 8 percent of the total.
To make fiscal 1997 funds available earlier than July,
the new law requires the assent of both the President and
Congress. By February 28, the President must report to
Congress that the delay in funding is hampering the activities
of international family planning programs, and Congress must
vote to accept the President's findings. If this occurs, funds
will start to be released March 1; if not, the funds will not
be released until July.
U.S. funding for the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) was set
at no more than $25 million. The bill requires that U.S. funds
to this UN agency be kept in a separate account, none of the
money be spent in China, and the total U.S. contribution be
reduced dollar for dollar by the amount of other donors' money
that the UNFPA spends in China.
Unfinished business
The full Senate never considered the Family Privacy
Protection Act, which would make survey research on minors
more difficult. The bill requires written parental consent
before minors can participate in most types of federally
funded research. Although numerous social science research
associations opposed it, the legislation passed the House last
April as part of the House Republicans' "Contract with
America." Observers expect it to be reintroduced in the next
session of Congress.
Another bill expected to be reintroduced next session is
the Statistical Confidentiality Act. This legislation would
allow federal statistical agencies such as the Census Bureau
and the Internal Revenue Service to exchange information and
avoid duplicating each other's efforts, but protect the
confidentiality of individuals.
*****
Are More Immigrants the Answer to U.S. Population Aging?
By Thomas Espenshade and Jessica C. Gurcak
The U.S. population is steadily aging, the result of
both longer average lifetimes and low birth rates. This aging will
force increases in health expenditures, change retirement policies,
have profound effects on Social Security, and may divert
resources currently devoted to children. The median age of the
U.S. population rose from about 28 years in 1970 to 34.6 years
in 1996, and is projected to reach 38 years in 2050 in the
Census Bureau's latest middle-series projections.
To counteract population aging, some researchers suggest
that more immigrants might help reduce the burden of elderly
on the nation by increasing the number of working-age people.
1 Immigrants are assumed to make a population younger because
the majority are under age 30. The median age of new U.S.
immigrants in 1995 was 28, roughly six years lower than that
of U.S. residents. A careful look at the data, however,
suggests that current levels of immigrants have only a limited
impact on the share of elderly in the U.S. population.
In 1990, 12.5 percent of the population was over 65
years of age. If no immigration were to occur and fertility
and mortality continued at a moderate level, in the year 2050,
22.3 percent of the population would be over 65. If net
immigration were held to 300,000 per year, 20.9 percent would
be over 65 in 2050, compared with 20.0 percent at 820,000
annual immigrants, and 19.4 percent at 1.37 million
immigrants.2 In other words, more immigrants within a range
centered not far from current levels (about 800,000 per year)
would reduce the future percentage of elderly in the
population somewhat, but not bring it much closer to the
current percentage.
Given that numbers similar to or somewhat above current
immigration are inadequate to halt short-term population
aging, what levels would be necessary? Demographers Dennis
Ahlburg and James Vaupel address this question by examining
the impact of various levels of immigration on the dependency
ratio, which is the ratio of dependent ages (under 18 and 65
and above) to working ages (18-64) (see figure).3
The only solution found to stabilize the dependency
ratio at its 1990 level of 0.93 (holding fertility at 1.84
lifetime births per woman and constant 1987 mortality levels)
requires immigration of 2 million per year by 2020 and 10
million per year by 2080. In 2030, the dependency ratio would
reach 1.1, but it would be down to 0.94 in 2080. If
contemporary experience is any guide, the American public
would be unwilling to tolerate such high levels of
immigration. Moreover, with immigration at this level, the
total U.S. population would grow to 700 million, almost three
times the 1990 population.
Another possibility is to use temporary or "guest"
workers to reduce dependency ratios. Several nations,
including the United Arab Emirates, Germany, and France, have
used such programs in the past. The advantage of temporary
workers is that, taken as a whole, they do not age; as one set
of temporary workers grows old, they return to their home
countries and are replaced by a fresh group of young workers.
While in theory this type of program might be successful in
lowering dependency ratios, in practice nations have had
difficulty repatriating guest workers. In fact, many become
permanent residents, even sending for more family members to
join them in the host country. Therefore, a temporary worker
program is likely to produce demographic consequences similar
to those of permanent immigration.
The United States already has a de facto temporary
worker program. About 2 million illegal immigrants are
estimated to enter the country each year.4 However, official
statistics cite net illegal immigration at only 200,000 per
year. Therefore, it seems that upwards of 90 percent of all
illegal migrants who enter the United States leave after
working a short period. Assuming that illegal immigrants are
on average no older than legal immigrants, the yearly fresh
supply of young illegal immigrants might theoretically serve
the same purpose as a temporary worker program, especially if
it were the only source of immigration to the United States
and if a way were found to ensure all undocumented migrants
paid taxes.
But in practice any policy that encourages illegal
immigration would be impossible to maintain. Undoubtedly,
public sentiment would oppose a program that curtailed legal
immigration and at the same time favored large waves of
illegal immigrants. Moreover, relaxing controls on illegal
immigration might prompt more undocumented migrants to stay,
thereby nullifying the justification for allowing large
numbers of illegal immigrants to enter in the first place.
Our analysis indicates that using immigration to
manipulate a population's age distribution is an unwieldy
tool, ineffective on a small scale and impractical on a large
one. In addition to being unrealistic from a demographic
perspective, it is also unlikely that massive increases in
immigration would appeal to the American public.
So what, then, is the solution to U.S. population aging,
if immigration is an unrealistic alternative? Inducing the
public to die sooner is out of the question. While fertility
levels may rise, this will be temporary at best. The most
promising approach lies in living with population aging rather
than trying to prevent it. Public policies need to be
implemented that will cope effectively with an aging
population, planning ahead for an increased burden of
dependency.
References
1. R. Holzmann, "Aging and Social Security Costs," European
Journal of Population 3(1987): 411-37.
2. Jennifer Cheeseman Day, "Population Projections of the
United States by Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to
2050," U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports
P25-1130 (1996).
3. Dennis A. Ahlburg and James W. Vaupel, "Immigration and
the Dependency Burden," International Population Conference,
Montreal, 1993, vol. 4 (Liege, Belgium: International Union
for the Scientific Study of Population, 1993): 61-71.
4. Thomas J. Espenshade, "Undocumented Migration to the
United States: Evidence from a Repeated Trials Model," In
Undocumented Migration to the United States: IRCA and the
Experience of the 1980s, eds. Frank Bean, Barry Edmonston, and
Jeffrey Passel (Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press,
1990): 159-81.
This piece was adapted from an article by Thomas J.
Espenshade, "Can Immigration Slow U.S. Population Aging?"
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 4, vol. 13 (1994):
759-68.
Thomas J. Espenshade is Professor of Sociology and Faculty
Associate of the Office of Population Research, Princeton
University. Jessica C. Gurcak is a junior majoring in
economics at Princeton University.
*****
Hong Kong
Population: 6.4 million
Land area: 380 square miles
Births: 12 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 5 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 5 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 0.7 percent per year
Total fertility: 1.2 births per woman
Life expectancy: 75(male)/81(female)
By Yushi Li
Hong Kong will revert to Chinese sovereignty on July 1,
1997, as a Special Administrative Region of China. According
to the Basic Law_the new constitution_Hong Kong residents will
retain for 50 years many of the freedoms and rights they have
now. But many wonder how China's Communist government will
change life in Hong Kong, and many residents have made plans
to leave before July 1997.
Hong Kong was a territory of China until 1841. After
defeating China in the First Opium War (1840-1842), Britain
forced China to cede the land of Hong Kong in a series of
treaties between the two governments. China always considered
those treaties to be unjust.
Hong Kong is located on the southeast coast of mainland
China just 80 miles southeast of Canton. About two-fifths the
size of Rhode Island, Hong Kong consists of Hong Kong Island,
Stonecutter's Island, the Kowloon Peninsula, the New
Territories, and various surrounding islands. Population
density is 14,482 people per square mile, almost double that
of Los Angeles' 7,427 people per square mile in 1990.
The growth of Hong Kong's economy has been impressive.
It is ranked as the eighth-largest trading entity in the
world, lending this small country international significance.
Industrial growth in Hong Kong and mainland China's
reemergence in world trade have contributed to this financial
success. Hong Kong is a trading center through which China
exports its products to the rest of the world. Over the past
20 years, the economy has quadrupled in size. In 1994, GDP was
US$132 billion and the GDP per capita was US$21,750.
Hong Kong's population is 98 percent Chinese and 2
percent other nationalities. The majority of Chinese were born
in Hong Kong, but many were born in mainland China and
migrated to Hong Kong_legally or illegally. In 1992, 77
percent of Hong Kong residents were literate. English and
Cantonese are the official languages, but Mandarin is gaining
popularity.
Hong Kong led the way with fertility control policies
and programs in the late 1960s and early 1970s. From 1964 to
1994, population growth declined from an average annual rate
of 4.0 percent to 1.2 percent. The total fertility rate (the
number of children a woman will have in her lifetime) dropped
from 1.5 to 1.2 from 1984 to 1995. Contraceptive prevalence is
high at a 1994 rate of 81 percent, matching the United
Kingdom's rate. Condoms and female sterilization are the
methods most commonly used.
Many educated young women now concentrate on their
careers and delay marriage. This trend has contributed to the
decline in the birth rate over the past 30 years. In 1994, the
median age for first marriage was 30 years for men and 27 for
women.
Ten years ago, life expectancy for males was 73; for females,
it was 79. In 1995, those values rose to 75 and 81,
respectively. The infant mortality rate has also improved: in
1984, it was 8.8 per 1,000 infants, compared with 5.0 in 1995.
The significant increase in population (from 4 to 5
million) in the late 1970s was a result of two different
immigration streams. One migrant group came from China.
Another group came from Vietnam after the fall of Saigon in
1975. Soon after 1975, the Hong Kong government severely
restricted immigration. Recently, illegal immigration from
mainland China has accelerated. These immigrants, many of them
pregnant women smuggled into Hong Kong, hope to reap the
benefits of Hong Kong citizenship for themselves and their
children before it reverts to Chinese sovereignty, according
to news reports.
Since the agreement to return Hong Kong to China was
announced in 1984, many middle- and upper-class people have
emigrated to other countries, including Canada, Australia, and
the United States. Emigration totaled an estimated 20,000 to
30,000 people per year in the 1980s. In 1992, that number
increased to 66,000 people, but slowed to 62,000 in 1994 and
43,100 in 1995.
Yushi Li is a professor in the Department of Sociology,
Anthropology, and Philosophy at Northern Kentucky University.
*****
NCHS in the fast lane
Users of National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
data may have been surprised to receive a copy of Births and
Deaths: United States, 1995 in the mail recently. This new
publication is the result of an expedited flow of data
processing that makes birth and death data available much
faster than under past practice.
The new report contains tables on births and birth rates
by age of mother, percent of births to teenage mothers,
percent of births to unmarried mothers, and a variety of other
topics, much of it shown by state.
According to the report, overall life expectancy at
birth in the United States rose to 75.8 years from 1994 to
1995. It increased from 72.4 to 72.6 for males, but decreased
for females, from 79.0 to 78.9. The overall increase in life
expectancy, however, was due to the black population's
increase from 69.5 to 69.8. White life expectancy remained
level at 76.5 years.
This report also gave early notice of a decline in the
percent of births outside marriage, from 32.6 percent in 1994
to 32.0 in 1995.
This report is part of NCHS's Monthly Vital Statistics Report
series. To order, call (301) 436-8500. NCHS's home page
address is: http://www.cdc.gov/ nchswww/nchshome.htm.
Population film & video festival
The third annual 1997 World Population Film/Video
Festival is seeking movies by secondary and college students
that look at the links between population growth, resource
consumption, the environment, and the world's future.
Submissions may be any length and cinematic form.
Entries must be postmarked by June 15, 1997. Contact WPFVF, 46
Fox Hill Road, Bernardston, MA 01337; (800) 638-9464; fax:
(413) 648-9204; e-mail: info@ wpfvf.com; Internet: http://www.
wpfvf.com.
U.S. AIDS growth rate slows
Fifteen years after the first reports of unusual
pneumonia cases among homosexual men in Los Angeles, the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that
recent trends show the U.S. epidemic's overall growth rate is
slowing.
Estimates of newly diagnosed cases of AIDS and
opportunistic infections caused by AIDS in the United States
indicate that AIDS cases were increasing at a rate of 5
percent or less per year during 1992-1995, down from rates of
increase of at least 10 percent annually during 1990-1992.
New York, California, Florida, Texas, and New Jersey
have accounted for over half of the cumulative AIDS cases for
the past two years (1994-1996). The three risk factors for
contracting HIV remain the same: male-male sex, intravenous
drug use, and heterosexual sex with a person in a high-risk
group or who has HIV/AIDS.
The epidemic is maturing at varying rates in different
areas and populations. Rates are leveling off in the West and
for whites, but are increasing in the rest of the country and
among blacks and Hispanics everywhere.
Gender is also a factor. The rate for men has
stabilized, while that for women is increasing. According to
the report, the increase for women reflects past HIV
infections contracted through sexual contact, principally with
intravenous drug-using partners, which are now developing into
AIDS.
Worldwide, an estimated 17 million adults were infected
with HIV through 1994. Since the first infections were
reported, 1.29 million AIDS cases have been reported to the
World Health Organization (WHO) from 193 countries, but the
true number may actually be as high as 6 million. WHO projects
a cumulative total of 30 to 40 million HIV infections by the
year 2000. [CDC, HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report 1, vol. 8(1996);
and UNFPA, AIDS Update 1995.]
New books
Ending the Explosion: Population Policies and Ethics for
a Humane Future. William J. Hollingsworth. Santa Ana, CA:
Seven Locks Press, 1996. 268 pages. $23.95. ISBN: 0-929-765-
44-3.
Europe's Population in the 1900s. David Coleman, ed. New
York: Oxford University Press, 1996. 346 pages. $27.00. ISBN:
0-19-828894-8.
Dividing the Waters: Food Security, Ecosystem Health,
and the New Politics of Scarcity. Sandra Postel. Washington,
DC: Worldwatch Institute, 1996. 76 pages. $5.00. ISBN: 1-
878071-34-3.
*****
ANNUAL INDEX 1996
CENSUS
Capitol Hill lawmakers challenge sampling plan for 2000
Census (Aug. p. 3)
Census 2000 plan, family planning aid controversial on
Capitol Hill (Dec. p. 1)
Sampling, simplified forms planned for 2000 Census (May
p. 3)
U.S. ponders retooling its race and ethnic categories
for 2000 Census (Jan. p. 1)
CHILDREN/YOUTH
The calm before the juvenile crime storm? (Sept. p. 4)
One-third of U.S. children in poverty live in working-poor
families (Aug. p. 4)
Senate to consider restrictions on research on minors
(Aug. p. 3)
Teens' risk of AIDS, unintended pregnancies examined
(Aug. p. 1)
CRIME/VIOLENCE
The calm before the juvenile crime storm? (Sept. p. 4)
Concentrating poverty breeds violence (June/July p. 5)
ENVIRONMENT
The carrying capacity debate (April p. 5)
"City Summit" to address global urbanization (March p. 4)
Earth Day feature: Population, consumption, and the
Earth's future (April p. 4)
FAMILY/HOUSEHOLD
Do working moms anticipate the trade-offs? (June/July p.3)
Most U.S. unwed mothers are not teens (Nov. p. 3)
One-third of U.S. children in poverty live in working-
poor families (Aug. p. 4)
Single parenthood hurts immigrants' economic gains (May
p. 4)
FAMILY PLANNING/REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH
African men want more children than their wives (Oct. p. 3)
Experts predict increase in overseas abortions, maternal
deaths (April p. 1)
Family planning aid target of steep cuts (March p. 3)
Family planning choice still lags in Vietnam (Jan. p. 3)
Men and family planning: Focus on Egypt (Feb. p. 3)
Report calls for new revolution in contraceptive
technology (Sept. p. 1)
IMMIGRANTS/MIGRANTS
Increasing numbers of migrants challenge policymakers
worldwide (May p. 1)
Single parenthood hurts immigrants' economic gains
(May p. 4)
Southern California's immigrants progress rapidly (May p. 5)
Are more immigrants the answer to U.S. population aging?
(Dec. p. 4)
PUBlIC POLICY
Capitol Hill lawmakers challenge sampling plan for 2000
Census (Aug. p. 3)
Census 2000 plan, family planning aid controversial on
Capitol Hill (Dec. p. 1)
Family planning aid target of steep cuts (March p. 3)
International family planning aid generates renewed
controversy (Aug. p. 3)
Senate to consider restrictions on research on minors
(Aug. p. 3)
POVERTY/HUNGER
Concentrating poverty breeds violence (June/July p. 5)
One-third of U.S. children in poverty live in working-
poor families (Aug. p. 4)
UN Food Summit tries to focus world attention on hunger
(Nov. p. 1)
U. S. poverty myths explored (Oct. p. 1)
RACE/ETHNICITY
Black history month: A look at the trends shaping
African Americans' future (Feb. p. 1)
Growing diversity shapes the U.S. population at mid-
decade (March p. 1)
U.S. ponders retooling its race and ethnic categories
for 2000 Census (Jan. p. 1)
SPORTS
The 1996 Olympics: And the winner isTonga? (Sept. p. 3)
Play ball!: Demographics and major league baseball
(April p. 3)
SPOTLIGHTS
Brazil (Aug. p. 7)
Burundi (Sept. p. 7)
Hong Kong (Dec. p. 7)
India (May p. 7)
Indonesia (June/July p. 7)
Kenya (Jan. p. 7)
Latvia (Oct. p. 7)
Nicaragua (Nov. p.7)
South Korea (April p. 7)
Turkey (March p. 7)
United Kingdom (Feb. p. 7)
STATES/LOCAL AREAS
Growing diversity shapes the U.S. population at mid-
decade (March p. 1)
Job gains bypass low-skilled Atlantans (June/July p. 4)
Southern California's immigrants progress rapidly (May
p. 5)
WOMEN
China's "missing girls": Prospects and policy (Feb. p.4)
Do working moms anticipate the trade-offs? (June/July p. 3)
Most U.S. unwed mothers are not teens (Nov. p. 3)
WORLD POPULATION TRENDS
The carrying capacity debate (April p. 5)
How many people can the Earth support? (Jan. p. 4)
Increasing numbers of migrants challenge policymakers
worldwide (May p. 1)
World population expected to reach 6 billion in early
1999 (June/July p. 1)
WORLD WIDE WEB SITES
A guide to population-related home pages on the World
Wide Web (Oct. p. 4)
***