UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
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The electronic version of this journal is being made available by the
Population Information Network (POPIN) Gopher of the United Nations
Population Division, Department for Economic and Social Information and
Policy Analysis, in collaboration with the Population Reference Bureau
and with funding from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.
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Population Today
December 1994
Please note: The graphics that appear in the printed copy of
Population Today have not been included here. For a complete copy
of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population Reference Bureau,
1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009.
Clinton Administration Forging Population-Foreign Policy Links
By Alex De Sherbinin
"If you look at the rate at which natural resources are
disappearing and you look at the rate at which the gap between
rich and poor is growing, if you look at the fact that the world's
population has doubled since 74 nations met in Rome only 40 years
ago, it is clear that we need a comprehensive approach to the
future of the world."
__President
Clinton, June 29, 1994
The relationship between population growth in developing countries
and U.S. national interests is again capturing the interests of
foreign policy experts. After a dormant period during the Reagan
and Bush administrations, population and national security links
are being given renewed priority by the Clinton administration.
Rapid population growth and its effects are considered soft
security issues__in contrast to the military security issues that
were the traditional core of cold war foreign policy.
Within the administration, the two point people are former
Colorado Senator Tim Wirth, in his newly created position of
Under-Secretary of State for Global Affairs, and Eileen Claussen,
senior director of the new Global Environmental Affairs branch at
the National Security Council. Wirth and Claussen are at the
forefront of molding the U.S. response to soft security issues,
which include environmental security, refugee and migrant
population movements, political instability, and religious and
ethnic conflict, as well as other nonmilitary but nonetheless
serious threats like drug trafficking, terrorism, and
international organized crime. It is believed that many of these
issues have their roots in rapid population growth and persistent
poverty.
Not a new concern
The framing of population as a foreign policy concern is
not new. In the 1960s, when the U.S. Agency for International
Development (A.I.D.) began providing population assistance, the
rationales were simpler than today. Operating under the neo-
Malthusian premise that rapid increases in population would outrun
food supplies and inhibit economic development, the State
Department, A.I.D., and a select group of population advocates
convinced President Johnson that the United States not only should
enter this potentially sensitive area, but should consider it a
foreign assistance priority. In 1965, the Johnson administration
decided to provide family planning supplies and technical
assistance to any country requesting help. Since then, the United
States has been a leader in developing innovative programs and
strategies to meet the family planning needs of couples in less
developed countries (LDCs).
The justification for population assistance has always been
mixed. First, the United States has often expressed a humanitarian
desire to help developing countries on their path toward economic
development. Second, there are the realpolitik concerns. Implicit
in many domestic discussions on population is the notion that
rapid population growth represents a threat to U.S. interests.
In the past, these interests tended to be formulated in
terms of maintaining access to strategic resources, and the
argument that poor countries with rapid growth were breeding
grounds for communist ideology. Today, the connections made between
rapid population growth and U.S. interests tend to be more complex,
and are linked to the macroeconomic difficulties faced by
developing countries (see diagram).
The view of some foreign policy experts is that rapid
population growth, occurring in the context of stalled economic
development, can overwhelm the educational, health care, and
employment capacities of a developing country__leading to
political destabilization, environmental degradation, and resource
scarcities.
As Tim Wirth stated recently, "We believe population is
absolutely at the root of destabilizing a lot of countries. If you
have many people without any hope and without any chances for
fulfilling themselves, that's a recipe for destabilization."
These problems, in turn, can result in military conflicts,
environmental spillover effects (such as burning of rain forests),
refugee and migratory movements, and a less vigorous world trade
environment. In addition, it is feared that the growing income and
population gap between the world's "haves" and "have-nots" could
lead to diminished influence for America and its developed country
partners, and would create a world increasingly beyond U.S.
control.
Slippery slopes
Critics respond that such a view oversimplifies the
problem. Some argue that the development difficulties of LDCs __
often the result of poor governance, inadequate institutions, and
developed countries' trade barriers or indifference__are as much to
blame for rapid population growth as the other way around. Pointing
to population as the cause of LDC problems could let corrupt
leaders off the hook, or exonerate the developed world of any
responsibilities for current imbalances in trade, debt, or
consumption patterns. Advocates of women's reproductive rights
fear that reintroduction of security rationales for population
assistance could lead to coercive policies that limit women's
right to choose the number and spacing of births. Others resist
any diversion of resources from the national security budget to
foreign assistance. Despite these objections, the number of
imploding states such as Haiti, Rwanda, and Somalia, and the
belief that rapid population growth underlies some of these
troubles, has drawn the attention of policymakers toward
population-related soft security issues.
For more information, see Population Issues of Concern to the
Foreign Policy Community, a summary prepared for the Pew
Charitable Trusts' Global Stewardship Initiative, by Alex de
Sherbinin, free from PRB.
*******
Minorities Still Less Likely to Own Homes
By Susan Kalish
Since paying off a home mortgage is the way most Americans
build net worth over their lifetimes, homeownership rates are an
important indicator of relative wealth.
More minorities are buying homes. Between 1987 and 1991,
the number of homeowners rose for most racial and ethnic groups,
according to a recent report from the Department of Housing and
Urban Development and the Census Bureau. However, the proportion
of households that are resident-owned remained about the same for
all groups. Whites are more likely to own their own homes than
Asian Americans, Native Americans, African Americans, or
Hispanics. In 1991, more than two-thirds of white households were
resident-owned, compared with half of Asian/Pacific Islander and
American Indian/Alaska Native households. Only 43 percent of
blacks and 39 percent of Hispanics owned their own homes.
These differences in home ownership rates are largely
driven by racial and ethnic differences in income. In 1993, the
median household income was $32,960 for whites, $38,350 for Asians,
$22,890 for Hispanics, and $19,530 for blacks. The higher
household income for Asians does not reflect higher average pay
rates, however (see William P. O'Hare and Judy C. Felt, Asian
Americans: America's Fastest Growing Minority Group, PRB, 1991).
Rather, Asian households are more likely than white households to
have two or more wage earners. Other factors include Asians' high
concentration in metro areas, particularly in cities in the West,
where the cost of living tends to be relatively high. Some 58
percent of Asian homeowners live in the West.
Another factor is whether prospective young homeowners have
parents with sufficient accumulated assets to assist with a down
payment. The likelihood of this varies by race and ethnicity.
There is also evidence that discrimination against prospective
minority home buyers in housing and mortgage markets plays a role
in differential homeownership rates.
Between 1987 and 1991, the number of homeowners rose for
most minority groups. The number of Asian homeowners rose by
299,000; the number of African-American homeowners by 296,000; the
number of Hispanic homeowners by 225,000. These increases were
driven in part by demographic changes such as immigration and
population aging. Immigration brought increased numbers of
predominantly young adult Asians and Hispanics into the country
beginning in the 1980s. The "middle-aging" of the post-World War
II baby boom has put more African Americans into the age groups who
are more capable financially of purchasing a home.
Home ownership is the norm for married couples; almost 80
percent of all U.S. married couples reside in a home they own. But
minorities fell below this average. More than 60 percent of black,
Native American, and Asian married couples are homeowners.
Hispanic couples trail at 54 percent.
In 1991, the median value of owner_occupied homes in the
United States was $80,300. Because 9 out of 10 U.S. homeowners are
white, the median home value for whites, $82,000, is very close to
the national median.
Homes owned by Asians had a median value of $195,900, more
than twice the national median, and those values were on the rise.
The relative concentration (45 percent) of Hispanic owners in the
West pushed up the median value of Hispanic homes nationally to
the all-group median. The value of homes owned by African
Americans and Native Americans lagged behind at $55,400 and
$62,900, respectively.
For more information, see America's Racial and Ethnic Groups:
Their Housing in the Early Nineties, by Jeanne M. Woodward,
Current Housing Reports, Series H121/94_3, Washington, D.C.,
Bureau of the Census, 1994.
*******
Annual Index
Africa
More sub-Saharan African countries want to lower fertility (May p. 6)
Zimbabwe radio drama for men gets across family planning message (March
p. 6)
Asia/Pacific
AIDS, low birth rates, & future growth in Thailand (Oct. p. 4)
Culturally sensitive family planning: Bangladesh story suggests it can
reduce family size (Feb. p. 5)
Education
Do teachers know the population of the world? (July/Aug. p. 6)
Education still drives income (Oct. p. 6)
"Entertainment-education," An idea whose time has come (March p.4)
PRB's world population clock, 1994 (July/Aug. p. 5)
What do teachers know about population? (July/Aug. p. 1)
Europe/former USSR
Proportion of out-of-wedlock births increases in Europe (Sept. p.6)
Russia's new revolution: A demographic baby bust (Apr. p. 1)
Families
Fewer and fewer "traditional" U.S. households (Nov. p. 3)
PRB census analysis finds U.S. women are anything but "typical" (May p. 4)
Proportion of out-of-wedlock births increases in Europe (Sept. p.6)
Putting families and children together again--statistically (Feb. p. 3)
Rising costs of raising children (July/Aug. p. 4)
Fertility/family planning
Culturally sensitive family planning: Bangladesh story suggests it can
reduce family size (Feb. p. 5)
"Entertainment-education", An idea whose time has come (March p.4)
Family planning, economic crises lower world birth rates (June p.1)
More sub-Saharan African countries want to lower fertility (May p.6)
Zimbabwe radio drama for men gets across family planning message (March p. 6)
Health care
U.S. immigrants: Healthier than native born? (May p. 3)
What health reform might mean for demographers (Jan. p. 3)
Who has health insurance? (Nov. p. 6)
HIV/AIDS
AIDS, low birth rates, & future growth in Thailand (Oct. p. 4)
AIDS patterns projected for Asia (Dec p. 5)
For young men, AIDS is now the leading cause of death (Apr. p. 6)
PAA: Demographers debate immigration policy, economic disparity, earth's
carrying capacity (June p. 3)
Immigration
Different types of immigrants use welfare differently (June p. 6)
Immigration debate centers on economic impact (Oct. p. 1)
Immigration's share of U.S. population growth: How we measure it matters
(Sept. p. 3)
PAA: Demographers debate immigration policy, economic disparity, earth's
carrying capacity (June p. 3)
U.S. immigrants: Healthier than native born? (May p. 3)
Migration
Black college grads, those in poverty take different migration paths
(Feb. p. 1)
International migration: New findings on magnitude, importance (March p. 1)
Metro areas with greatest black net in-migration and out-migration
(Feb. p. 6)
U.S. migration: South retains its magnetism; Midwest rallies (Jan. p. 4)
Mortality
AIDS, low birth rates, & future growth in Thailand (Oct. p. 4)
For young men, AIDS is now the leading cause of death (Apr. p. 6)
Russia's new revolution: A demographic baby bust (Apr. p. 1)
U.S. veteran population changes with time (Jan. p. 6)
Population policy and trends
Americans concerned about population issues as world conference
gets underway (Sept. p. 1)
At ICPD: Religious groups focus on population ethics (Nov. p. 4)
Clinton administration forging population-foreign policy links (Dec. p. 1)
Family Planning, economic crises lower world birth rates (June p.1)
How far is it to Cairo? (Apr. p. 3)
NGOs prepare for 1994 world population conference (Feb. p. 4)
PAA: Demographers debate immigration policy, economic disparity, earth's
carrying capacity (June p. 3)
Population-environment links: Crucial, but unwieldy (Jan. p. 1)
Population lingo can push "hot buttons" (Oct. p. 3)
Population stabilization no longer in sight for U.S. (May p. 1)
Population summit: Developing countries hope for action (Apr. p.5)
PRB's world population clock, 1994 (July/Aug. p. 5)
Russia's new revolution: A demographic baby bust (Apr. p. 1)
World population growth rate slows, but numbers still build up (Nov. p. 1)
World population: How big by 2030? Or 2100? (July/Aug. p. 3)
Race/ethnicity
Black college grads, those in poverty take different migration paths
(Feb. p. 1)
Clinton's appointments: They do "look like America" (March p. 3)
Metro areas with greatest black net in-migration and out-migration (Feb.
p. 6)
Minorities still less likely to own homes (Dec. p. 3)
Who has health insurance? (Nov. p. 6)
Spotlight
Australia (July/Aug. p. 7)
Egypt (June p. 7)
Guatemala (Apr. p. 7)
Haiti (Jan. p. 7)
Jordan (Sept. p. 7)
Madagascar (May p. 7)
North Korea (Nov. p. 7)
South Africa (Feb. p. 7)
Spain (March p. 7)
Vietnam (Oct. p. 7)
Taiwan (Dec. p. 7)
United States
Black college grads, those in poverty take different migration paths
(Feb. p. 1)
Clinton's appointments: They do "look like America" (March p. 3)
Fewer and fewer "traditional" U.S. households (Nov. p. 3)
Immigration debate centers on economic impact (Oct. p. 1)
Immigration's share of U.S. population growth: How we measure it
matters (Sept. p. 3)
Population stabilization no longer in sight for U.S. (May p. 1)
PRB Census analysis finds U.S. women are anything but "typical" (May p. 4)
3.9 million U.S. children in distressed neighborhoods (Sept. p. 4)
U.S. migration: South retains its magnetism; midwest rallies (Jan. p. 4)
******
Is New AIDS Pattern Emerging in Asia?
AIDS in Asia could take a different course than its
characteristic patterns in other regions, says a new analysis from
the East-West Center. Researchers Tim Brown and Peter Xenos group
Asian countries according to their potential for the spread of the
AIDS epidemic. (China was divided into two regions, with each
region assigned to a different group.) Several Asian countries
could not be classified, either because patterns were not clear or
because data were insufficient.
Brown and Xenos are concerned that demographic, social, and
economic changes now sweeping through Asia may ultimately
facilitate the spread of HIV/AIDS in Asia. Increases in child
survival and delaying the age of marriage mean that, in many Asian
countries, the young population, particularly unmarried young
adults, is growing far more rapidly than the population as a
whole. Migration out of rural areas involves predominantly young,
single people moving to urban areas, where AIDS rates are higher
and risk behaviors are more prevalent. International sex tourism
is a thriving business in several countries, say the authors.
Also, the day-to-day movements of truckers, fishermen, and other
workers across Asia's rather permeable borders also may contribute
to the problem.
The spread of HIV/AIDS infection has been most evident in
Thailand because of the country's openness in admitting the
problem, its success in monitoring the epidemic since the mid-
1980s, and its willingness to address the problem (see October
1994 Population Today). In other countries, the threat is much
less visible because of social taboos on talking about sex and
widespread official unwillingness to admit the prevalence of risk
behaviors, such as drug use or prostitution.
Thailand, Myanmar, India, and Cambodia have all seen
rapidly increasing AIDS epidemics. Each has detected substantial
levels of HIV infection in one or more population groups since the
epidemic began its spread in the mid-1980s. Intravenous drug use
has played an important role in all these countries except
Cambodia. Each also shows high HIV-infection levels among
prostitutes.
The situation in these countries is considered volatile.
For example, in Thai society, a relatively large proportion of the
male population engages in risk behaviors, such as visiting sex
workers and changing sex partners frequently. In Thai society as
in many Asian cultures, comment Brown and Xenos, men have great
freedom in their sexual activity, while women are expected to be
virgins at marriage and to refrain from extramarital affairs. This
creates a sexual imbalance in which large numbers of men are
seeking casual sexual contact, and the relatively smaller pool of
available women is increasingly subject to HIV infection.
The second group of countries considered to have a
potential for rapid increase of the disease consists of Vietnam,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos, Nepal, the Philippines, and southern
China. In these areas, HIV testing has not been extensive, but
preliminary indications are that current infection levels are
comparatively low. At the same time, limited evidence suggests that
risk behaviors in the populations may create the potential for HIV
spread. In Malaysia, Vietnam, and the southern provinces of
China, intravenous drug users have been testing positive. In
Indonesia and the Philippines, the commercial sex industry may be
a potential avenue for spreading the disease, although spot-
testing done to date indicates that HIV infection levels among sex
workers are low.
The third group consists of Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong,
Taiwan, Singapore, and China (excluding the southern provinces).
In these areas HIV testing has not been extensive, but the early
AIDS cases observed have occurred predominantly in the recipients
of blood products, homosexual men, and in intravenous drug users.
Some have used this to argue that these countries would
follow the pattern of the United States and Europe, with the
limited contacts between these groups and the general population
restricting heterosexual spread. But the reality is that a strong
shift has recently occurred from these groups to the heterosexual
population in reported HIV and more recent AIDS cases.
There is also evidence in this group of countries that
heterosexual risk behaviors may be high enough to present a
problem, although at lower levels than in other parts of the
region. For example, a recent survey in Japan found that 20
percent of married men reported extramarital sexual activity.
For more information, see "AIDS in Asia: The Gathering Storm," by
Tim Brown and Peter Xenos, Asia Pacific Issues, no. 16, August
1994. Phone: 808-944-7444, fax: 808-944-7490.
******
Spotlight: Taiwan
Population: 21.1 million
Land area: 13,900 square miles
Births: 16 per 1,000
Deaths: 5 per 1,000
Infant deaths: 5.7 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 1.0 percent
Total fertility: 1.7 births per woman
Life expectancy: 74(male)/77(female)
Capital: Taipei
By Rafael Obregon
Taiwan--the Republic of China--lies between the East and
South China seas, off the southeast coast of the Chinese mainland.
The country's territory comprises the island of Taiwan and several
nearby islands. With 21.1 million residents, three-fourths of the
population is considered urban. Although it reached replacement
level fertility in 1983, Taiwan is one of the most densely
populated countries in the world: 1,514 people per square mile
compared with 74 per square mile in the United States.
By far the majority, 84 percent, of the population is
Taiwanese; 14 percent is of mainland Chinese extraction; and 2
percent is aborigine. Although Buddhism is the predominant
religion, there are also Taoists, Muslims, and Christians.
Northern Chinese (Mandarin) is the official language, although
Taiwanese and Hakka dialects are also used.
Following the communist revolution in China, the remnants
of the Nationalist Government under Chang Kai-shek withdrew to the
offshore island of Taiwan. The political status of Taiwan remains
under dispute today. China does not officially recognize the
independence of Taiwan, and claims that the island is a part of
China. In Taiwan, there are generally two views on the issue. The
official government position is that the Republic of China is the
government of all of China, in exile. Another group favors
Taiwan's independence as a separate country and official
recognition by the People's Republic of China and the rest of the
world. Although no formal agreement on sovereignty is expected in
the near future, commercial ties between the two countries are
strong and growing, with heavy Taiwanese investment in China.
Further, the two governments have negotiated and agreed on issues
such as fishing rights, repatriation of hijackers and illegal
immigrants, and air transportation.
Since the end of World War II, the Nationalist group has
dominated the political life of Taiwan. However, with the advent
of free elections in 1988, following the death of Chang's son,
Chang Ching-kuo, members of opposing parties began to gain seats
in the National Assembly. The first general presidential election
is scheduled for 1996. Taiwan's international political influence
waned following the recognition of the People's Republic of China
by the UN in 1971 and the United States in 1979.
Taiwan's economy has developed rapidly in the last 50
years. The economy has shifted from an agriculture base in the
1950s, to textiles in the 1970s and 1980s, to more
capital-and-technology-intensive industries, such as the
manufacture of electronic equipment and plastic products, in the
1990s. The Taiwanese have a relatively high standard of living by
world standards; life expectancy and infant mortality rates are
about at the average for developed countries.
Fertility in Taiwan is currently at below-replacement
levels, a TFR (total fertility rate, or average births per woman)
of 1.7, with high contraceptive use (75 percent among married
women). Yet, paradoxically, Taiwan's success in achieving
below-replacement fertility led the government to reassess its
population and family-planning policy in 1992.
Its population is projected to continue to grow over the
next 40 years from 21.1 million to an estimated 27.4 million in the
year 2036. By that time, the proportion of elderly (age 65 or
older) is expected to triple, reaching between 19 and 22 percent.
This situation has raised concerns that a continuation of below-
replacement fertility levels will lead to severe age imbalances in
the population, which could adversely affect the country's
economy.
As a result, the Taiwanese government now hopes to gradually
increase fertility levels from the current 1.7 to 2.1 children per
woman, through improvement of reproductive health, strengthening
the welfare and rights of women, enhancing the quality of family
planning services, and mitigating the labor squeeze by increasing
the labor force participation of the elderly, the disabled, and
the poor.
******
News Clips and Resources
PRB's Riche becomes Census director
Martha Farnsworth Riche, former Director of Policy Studies
at the Population Reference Bureau, began her appointment as
director of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in November. The biggest
challenge, says Riche, is "to ensure that the Census Bureau
remains able to deliver information effectively in the 21st
century." As private and public organizations alike restructure
their goals and reasons for existence, she adds, "they need
information to make good decisions to shape their own efficiency."
Japan's fertility: "1.46 shock"
In 1990, the Japanese were talking about "1.57 shock"--a
phrase journalists coined when they learned that national birth
rates had fallen to an unprecedented low of 1.57 average births
per woman. In 1992, it was "1.53 shock." Now, with the release of
1993 vital data, Japanese journalists are writing about "1.46
shock" as average fertility continues to drop. In 1992, the
government projected that the 1993 TFR would only fall to 1.50
births per woman.
Low fertility produces a rapidly aging society and
potential labor shortage, presenting new social and economic
challenges. The Japanese government projects that 26 percent of
Japan's population will be over age 65 by the year 2025. This
"top-heavy" age structure may produce increasing financial burdens
on medical and social services for the elderly.
"Japanese Women and the Decline of the Birth Rate," by Miho
Ogino, NGO Forum of the International Conference on Population and
Development, 1994, Cairo, Egypt.
New PRB text: Epidemiology
"Population and Health: An Introduction to Epidemiology,"
a mini-text describing the origins, methods, and ethical issues in
this important field, is now available from PRB.
Lois A. Monteiro, chair of the Department of Community
Health at Brown University calls it "an excellent introduction to
the field." Epidemiology is the study of our collective health--the
patterns by which we live and die. Epidemiology investigates the
determinants, distribution, and prevention of disease, injury, and
disability in specific populations. This useful teaching tool was
written by Ian R.H. Rockett, professor of epidemiology at the
University of Tennesee, Knoxville.
"Population and Health: An Introduction to Epidemiology,"
Population Bulletin 49, no. 3 (November 1994). Cost: $7 each, bulk
discounts available. Contact PRB, 202-483-1100.
Women's roles in conservation
Women's empowerment as the key to an environmentally sound
future is the central theme of Women in Conservation. This
annotated bibliography of developing-country documents examines
women's roles and interactions with the environment. The volume
reviews case studies, data, and theories relating to women's use
of natural resources, property rights, and agriculture and food
security. Women in Conservation: Tools for Analysis and a
Framework for Action, by Dounia Loudiyi and Alison Meares.
Washington, D.C.: The World Conservation Union, 1993. ISBN 2-8317-
0196-1.
LIS workshop
The Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) will host a two-week
Summer Workshop May 14-19, 1995, in Luxembourg, covering topics
such as aging, poverty, single parents, and gender issues. LIS has
gathered more than 40 large microdata sets that contain
comprehensive measures of income and economic status for 20 modern
industrialized welfare states. The LIS database is a rich resource
for comparative and policy research in economics, sociology, and
public policy. Contact Nicole Ladewig, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse
University, Syracuse, NY 13244; tel: 315-443-9042; Fax: 315-443-
1081; e-mail: tmsmeeding@maxwell.syr.edu.
New books
Families: Celebration and Hope in a World of Change, by Dr.
Jo Boyden and UNESCO. New York: Gaia Books Limited, 1993. 175
pages. $29.95, hardcover. ISBN 0-8160-2992-X.
Human Reproductive Ecology: Interactions of Environment,
Fertility, and Behavior, edited by Kenneth L. Campbell and James
W. Wood. New York: The New York Academy of Sciences, 1994. 429
pages. $115.00 hardcover. ISBN 0-89766-841-3.
Population Policy: A New Consensus, by Robert Cassen and
Lisa M. Bates. Washington, D.C.: Overseas Development Council,
1994. 93 pages. $9.95 paperback. ISBN 1-56517-017-2.
Power Surge: Guide to the Coming Energy Revolution, by
Christopher Flavin and Nicholas Lenssen. New York: W.W. Norton &
Company, 1994. 382 pages. $10.95, hardcover. ISBN 0-393-03678-2.