UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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The electronic version of this journal is being made available by
the Population Information Network (POPIN) Gopher of the United
Nations Population Division, Department for Economic and Social
Information and Policy Analysis, in collaboration with the
Population Reference Bureau and with funding from the Andrew W.
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Population Today
November 1994
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy of
Population Today have not been included here. For a complete copy
of Population Today, send US$2.00 to Population Reference Bureau,
1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009.
World Growth Rate Slows, But Numbers Build Up
by Carl Haub
The early 1990s are turning out to be another demographic
watershed, reports the Population Division of the United Nations
Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy
Analysis. The newest series of UN estimates and projections
reflects the resumption of a trend of declining world population
growth rates that had begun in the mid-1960s but stalled soon
after.
UN demographers calculate that, between 1990 and 1994, world
population grew at 1.57 percent per year. This was significantly
below the 1.73 percent per year growth rate of the previous 15
years (1975-1990) and the peak of 2.0 percent in the late 1960s.
The current population growth rate is the lowest recorded since
World War II.
Differences from Previous UN Projections
These growth rates are dramatically different from those
used by the UN in its last series of projections, just two years
ago. In 1992, the UN estimated the annual world population growth
rate at 1.68 percent for 1990-1995, not 1.57 percent as it does
now. Declining growth rates have been recorded in both developing
and industrialized countries. They are primarily due to faster-
than-anticipated fertility declines in some countries of Africa
and South Central Asia, as well as "baby busts" in Eastern
Europe, particularly the former republics of the USSR.
Despite the lower growth rate, the number of people added to
world population is likely to increase annually until at least
the end of this century (see figure). In mid-1994, world
population stood at 5.63 billion, having increased by 86 million
persons the previous year, an average of 236,000 people each day.
Currently 4.47 billion people--79 percent of the total--live in
developing countries and 1.16 billion live in industrialized
countries.
World population is projected to be 9.8 billion in 2050 in
the medium series, with a possible range of from 7.9 to 11.9 in
the low and high series.
The 100 million-plus club
Today, just 10 countries have over 100 million people,
according to the UN. They are China (1.2 billion), India (919
million), the United States (261 million), Indonesia (195
million), Brazil (159 million), Russia (147 million), Pakistan
(137 million), Japan (125 million), Bangladesh (118 million), and
Nigeria (108 million). But, by 2050, the UN medium projections
show eight additional countries joining the 100-million-plus
club: Ethiopia, Zaire, Iran, Mexico, Vietnam, the Philippines,
Egypt, and Turkey. At that time, China and India, with more than
1.6 billion people each, will be neck and neck for the number one
position.
Reasons for the slowdown
The 1994 revision of the official UN world population
estimates and projections reflects the beginning of an apparent
fertility transition in a number of sub-Saharan African, Asian,
and Middle Eastern countries. For decades, the average number of
children per woman had remained very high and constant in these
countries. Recent demographic surveys have uncovered fertility
declines, which the UN has now built into its projections. Also,
the large number of countries with evidence of three
trends--fertility decline, increases in contraceptive use, and
rising age at marriage--argues that the transition to lower
fertility has actually begun in many countries.
In Madagascar, average fertility has fallen from 6.6
children per woman in 1980-1985 to 6.1 today; in Tanzania, from
6.7 to 5.9; in Namibia, from 5.8 to 5.3; in Mauritania, from 6.1
to 5.4. New data also suggest faster-than-expected fertility
declines in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Gambia.
In Kenya and Botswana, fertility declines had been
documented in earlier UN projections. In these countries, more
couples are using contraception. Contraceptive use rose in Kenya
from 7 to 33 percent of married couples since the late 1970s and
from 28 to 33 percent in Botswana during the same period. In most
other countries of Africa, contraceptive use remains low, but
evidence exists that women are marrying at older ages. In
Tanzania, current use of contraception is low (10 percent in
1991-1992), but average female age at marriage rose from 19 years
in 1978 to 21 years in 1988. Several large countries, however,
show no evidence of these trends, including Nigeria, Zaire, and
Ethiopia.
Fertility is also dropping in South Asia and the Middle
East. Surprising new information suggests a rapid fertility
transition in Iran, where average births per woman dropped from
6.8 children per woman in the early 1980s to 5.0 today. Past
fertility declines continue in Bangladesh (from 6.2 children per
woman in the early 1980s to 4.4 today), India (from 4.5 to 3.7),
and Nepal (from 6.3 to 5.4). Populous Pakistan shows no fertility
decline as yet.
The new UN projections show that, on the one hand, changes
and surprises in current trends are always to be expected. But,
on the other hand, future world population remains very much an
unknown. Consider this: if world birth rates remained just where
they are today (i.e., a "constant fertility" assumption), world
population would rise to 16 billion by 2050, triple today's
total, and would pass 500 billion after 2100. Such is the quiet
power of seemingly small, yet compounding growth rates. Food for
thought.
For further information on World Population Prospects: The 1994
Revision, write: UN Population Division, DC-2, Room 1950, United
Nations, New York, NY 10017. The Population Division publishes
its projections series every two years, with separate volumes on
age-sex distributions for each country and projections of urban
and rural populations.
*****
Fewer and Fewer "Traditional " Households
by Susan Kalish
Household arrangements are continuing to diverge from what many
Americans still regard as traditional or typical, says the Census
Bureau. Trends such as delayed marriage, unmarried partners
living together, unmarried childbearing, and divorce are all
challenging the cultural expectation of lifelong marriage and
children growing up in the household of their biological parents.
A new analysis of Current Population Survey data tracks
household patterns since 1970. The report shows that steady or,
in some cases, intensifying pressure of several trends is driving
these continuing social changes. * Later marriage, no
marriage. Since 1975, the average age for first marriage has
risen by three years: from 23.5 to 26.5 years for men and from
21.1 to 24.5 years for women. The proportion of men and women age
30 to 34 who have never married has tripled between 1970 and
1993. For women, the proportion grew from 6.2 percent to 19.3
percent; for men, from 9 percent to 30 percent. * Unmarried
couples. In 1993, there were 6 unmarried couples for every 100
married couples, compared with only 1 for every 100 in 1970.
There are 3.5 million unmarried-couple households today, up from
523,000 in 1970. The relationship category, "unmarried partner of
opposite sex," was added to the 1990 Census questionnaire to help
identify this type of living arrangement. * People living alone.
About 1 in 8 adults (age 15 and older) lived alone in 1993. Most
(6 in 10) were women, but the proportion of men living alone grew
faster than that for women. Still, many more women than men in
older age groups live alone: of adults age 75 and older, 52
percent of women and 20 percent of men live alone. * Divorced
people. Between 1970 and 1993, the number of individuals who
report their marital status as divorced nearly quadrupled, from
4.3 million to 16.7 million, representing 9 percent of all adults
(age 18 or older). * Single parents. In 1993, 26.7 percent of
children under 18 were currently living with one parent, up from
11.9 percent in 1970. This single-point-in-time "snapshot" does
not capture the likelihood that today's children have a 50-50
chance of spending some part of their childhood in a
single-parent family. Single parents are now more likely to be
fathers: 12.8 percent of children in a one-parent situation lived
with their father, up from 9.1 percent in 1970. *
Never-married parents. In 1993, a child in a single-parent home
was almost as likely to be living with a never-married parent as
with a divorced parent (see figure). These changes affect all
U.S. racial and ethnic groups and all educational levels, but are
more intensified for some. In 1993, 64 percent of white adults
were currently married (down from 73 percent in 1970). The
proportion of married African-American adults plunged from 64
percent in 1970 to 43 percent. The married proportion of
Hispanics fell from 72 percent to 60 percent during the same
period. Or, from a different perspective, the proportion of
never-married adults age 18 and older has risen to 20 percent of
whites, 38 percent of blacks, and 28 percent of Hispanics.
For more information, see: Marital Status and Living
Arrangements: March 1993, by Arlene F. Saluter. U.S. Bureau of
the Census, Current Population Reports, Population
Characteristics P20- 478.
*****
At ICPD: Religious Groups Focus on POpulation Ethics
By Susan Kalish
Theologians and religious-based social activists, encouraged by
their participation in September's International Conference on
Population and Development (ICPD), are likely to add a diversity
of voices to ethical and policy debates concerning population
issues.
The emergent religious and ethical agenda will be broader
than the moral issue that dominated media coverage of ICPD: the
opposition of the Vatican to abortion. The population agenda for
mainline Protestants, the Jewish community, and many other
religious groups will likely focus on questions closer to the
heart of the conference: the empowerment of women; issues of
access to contraception and reproductive health care; the
responsibility of developed countries to aid less developed ones;
the moral implications of the consumption patterns of more
developed countries; and whether it is ethically acceptable to
push for worldwide goals such as women's empowerment or
population stabilization, since countries have different moral,
ethical, religious, and cultural values. Environment and
population
Not very long ago, much of religious discourse was viewed as
a hindrance to progress on environmental and population issues,
according to David Anderson, coauthor of Religious Communities
and Population Concerns, a PRB report. Historian Lynn White
summed up this criticism in a 1969 article in Science, finding
an "anti-nature" bias in Western science and technology going
back to the Genesis story of Eden--in which God gave human beings
domination over creation. Also in 1969, in response to such
emerging criticism, the National Council of Churches established
an Environmental Stewardship Action team and 75 religious
thinkers formed the Faith-Man-Nature Group to explore the
theology of ecology. New theological approaches began to stress
the immanence of the divine in the natural order--for example,
the "creation spirituality," "deep ecology," and "Gaia"
movements, as expressed by writers such as Thomas Berry, Matthew
Fox, Vincent Rossi, Bill DeVall, George Sessions, and Rosemary
Radford Ruether. The concept of "stewardship" began to outgrow
its traditional meaning of church fundraising and took on a sense
of "earth stewardship," the responsibility to care for the entire
natural world as a sacramental trust.
Church environmentalism in the 1970s and 1980s, says
Anderson, "proceeded by fits and starts, expressed among
grassroots and local congregations in a concern about such issues
as energy efficiency or recycling and on the theological level
with a renewed attention to the doctrine of creation and an
expanded view of the concept of stewardship."
This period also saw a deepening of discussions between
religious leaders and environmental scientists. In 1990, 34
internationally known scientists issued an "Open Letter to the
Religious Community." This appeal stated that "Efforts to
safeguard and cherish the environment need to be infused with a
vision of the sacred." Two years later, several hundred religious
leaders from all major faiths and from all around the world
signed a joint statement reading, "...a consensus now
exists...across a significant spectrum of religious traditions,
that the cause of environmental integrity and justice must occupy
a position of utmost priority for people of faith."
Religious voices at ICPD
These messages of earth stewardship were heard at ICPD--but
they were by no means the strongest religious voices there. At
the official UN conference, held in Cairo's new International
Conference Center, the Vatican's opposition to aspects of the
ICPD Program of Action dominated the agenda and international
press coverage for days. In the end, however, in a conciliatory
gesture that surprised seasoned observers, the Vatican joined the
consensus although with reservations on several issues. This was
the first time the Holy See had signed the official report of a
UN population conference.
At ICPD's NGO Forum, held in a nearby huge snail-shell of a
modified sports stadium, the strongest religious voices were
those of Muslims--a group with relatively small U.S. numbers, but
a major religion worldwide. The participation of Muslims in the
ICPD dialog was particularly important since, all around the
world, Muslims tend to have larger families than other groups in
the same locale or at similar income levels. Particularly active
at ICPD were faculty and religious leaders from Al-Azhar
University, which held a 1991 International Conference on
Bioethics in Human Reproduction Research in the Muslim world, and
published a 1994 commentary on ICPD's draft plan of action.
Spokespeople from Al-Azhar University appeared in workshops
and forums almost daily. Discussions tended to be intense, but
without the vociferousness of militant Egyptian Muslim preachers
who, according to news reports, denounced the conference as
immoral. Cairo's Grand Mufti, Mohammed Said Tantawy, the
highest-ranking spiritual leader of the Muslim community in
Cairo, made a surprise personal appearance to a packed hall on
the last day of the NGO forum, dispelling rumors that he
personally disapproved of the conference.
In general, Al-Azhar spokes-people made strong, moralistic
calls for protecting marriage and the family, condemning
cohabitation and any adolescent or premarital or extramarital
sexual behavior. They accepted a maternal and child health
rationale for the use of contraception, especially for birth
spacing. However, they opposed sterilization and abortion (except
for serious health considerations) and argued that, although
birth spacing is acceptable, the ultimate number of children in a
family should be left to God. In regard to ICPD's central theme
of improving women's status, it was often repeated that the Koran
gives women equal rights. However, the male role of dominating
and providing for the family was also affirmed.
One woman dissident, Rifat Hussan, a Pakistan-born Muslim
expert on women in Islam who teaches religious studies at the
University of Louisville in Kentucky, strongly criticized this
line of thinking at an early Al-Azhar presentation. "The Koran
has largely been interpreted by men to deny women the rights
given them by God," she said. "The Prophet said, `Learn half of
the faith from me and half from my wife Ayesha.' Where is
Ayesha's representative?" Religious-based, right-to-life groups,
primarily from the United States and South America, worked to
keep the focus on the abortion issue, raising this concern in
question-and-answer sessions and forums--sometimes to the point
of discouraging discussion on other issues.
Perhaps the most striking aspect of much of the religious
discourse at ICPD was the extent to which it embraced the goals
of the conference. In a speech from the ICPD plenary floor,
Daniel Maguire, a Catholic theologian from Marquette University,
praised the "remarkably broad consensus" inherent in the ICPD
Program of Action: 1) "Population problems will not be solved
until women are educated and empowered." 2) "Parents must have
hope that their children will live." 3) Economic development must
be "geared to the elimination of poverty and not left
to...trickle- down economics." 4) Richer nations must curtail
their "rapacious consumption patterns." 5) "We must control our
power to destroy the earth." Although Maguire admitted that there
is "dissension" on a sixth point, "that contraception and safe
abortion should be available to those who need them," he
characterized the Program of Action as "indebted to the justice
theories that define holiness of Judaism, Christianity, and
Islam" and as deeply moral at base.
In a press conference of representatives from world
religious traditions, Marilia Schuller, a Brazilian lay
theologian with the World Council of Churches, praised the ICPD
Program of Action for "making recommendations concerning human
rights, environmental sustainability, overconsumption by the
wealthy, gender equity, and woman's empowerment." She said that
"recognition that these factors are interrelated opens a critical
door toward the creation a more just, egalitarian, and humane
society."
The Reverend Gordon Sommers, president of the National
Council of Churches of Christ, USA, appealed for "better
stewardship of the earth." He called on the "Global North" (the
more developed countries) to "acknowledge and curb excessive
consumption of the earth's resources." He said that most
environmental degradation "is perpetuated by the affluent few and
not by the numerous poor."
The 1992 Earth Summit (UN Conference on Environment and
Development, or UNCED) gave U.S. religious groups that
participated an opportunity to deeply consider issues of earth
stewardship, especially in the context of the ecological impact
of consumption patterns of developed countries. Two years later,
ICPD has provided a new perspective on issues such as the
empowerment of women, the role of women in development, and
responsibility of developed countries toward the poor countries
of the world. More than that, the Cairo conference was a crucible
in which church-based social activists could infuse these issues
with a tradition of social justice that has historically been a
potent force in social movements. The Social Summit coming up in
March and the Women's Conference in September 1995 will likely
keep these issues in the public eye and on the agenda of
religious groups as well.
Religious Communities and Population Concerns, by Benedicta
Musembi and David E. Anderson, is available free of charge from
PRB. To request a copy, write or call: Population Reference
Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C.
20009. Phone: 202-483- 1100.
*****
North Korea
Population: 23.1 million Land area: 46,490 square miles Births:
24 per 1,000 Deaths: 6 per 1,000 Infant deaths: 30 per 1,000 live
births Natural increase: 1.9 percent Total fertility: 2.4 births
per woman Life expectancy: 66(male)/73(female) Capital city:
Pyongyang
By Alex de Sherbinin
Occupying roughly half of the Korean peninsula, the Democratic
People's Republic of Korea shares borders with China's Manchuria
in the north and the Republic of Korea in the south. The country
enjoys a temperate climate and moderate rainfall, with a
landscape of pine-covered hills and mountains in the east and
north and cultivated lowlands in the southeast. North Korea has
half the population size and density of South Korea. Following
World War II, the peninsula was partitioned at the 38th parallel
by the occupying forces of the former-USSR and the United States.
Backed by the Soviet Union, Kim Il Sung assumed power in 1946 and
remained the country's absolute ruler until his death earlier
this year. He is succeeded by his son, Kim Jong Il. Some
political observers question, however, whether the younger Kim
will be able to dominate the country's power structure as his
father had. The situation is precarious at a time when U.S.
negotiators are seeking international inspections of North Korean
nuclear facilities.
North Korean society has been greatly affected by war and
perceived military threats. Soon after World War II, mounting
tensions between North and South Korea culminated in the Korean
War. In June 1950, North Korean military forces invaded South
Korea, and within days occupied Seoul. The Seoul government
called upon the United States, which together with the UN mounted
a collective defense action in support of South Korea. After
three years of fighting, a cease-fire line was established near
the 38th parallel. The war resulted in 3 million military and
civilian casualties for North and South Korea combined.
Following the war, North Korea turned its attention toward
building its industrial infrastructure. In the late 1950s the
country enjoyed rapid economic growth due to the government's
ability to muster underutilized resources and constrain
consumption. Agriculture was collectivized, and mining and other
heavy industries were developed quickly. However, since 1989, the
govern-ment's rigid adherence to centralized planning and
disruptions in trade relations with the former-USSR have resulted
in declining output.
From the early 1960s through the mid-1980s, the North Korean
government kept secret most socioeconomic and demographic
statistics. In 1989, the government issued population statistics
to the UN Population Fund for the first time. The data revealed
sufficient information for demographers to discern the outlines
of the country's demographic history. Wartime casualties made
Korea a labor-scarce country. Labor scarcities, combined with the
view that socialism could expand productivity sufficiently to
care for the needs of a rapidly growing population, led North
Korea to pursue an explicitly pronatalist policy during the 1950s
and 1960s. By 1970, the rate of population growth had reached 3.5
percent and was undermining the government's ability to provide
services. The government quietly began to implement a family
planning program, following a plan for improving maternal health
and enhancing economic opportunities for women. By the late
1980s, fertility had declined to just over replacement level.
North Korean women now bear an average of 2.4 children.
Because of the 1960s "baby boom," North Korea is
experiencing rapid growth in the labor force and in the
population of childbearing age. North Korea has near-universal
education and literacy, and a highly skilled work force. In
addition, it has made notable progress in the area of health
care--infant mortality has dropped, from an estimated 115 deaths
per 1,000 births in 1950 to 30 per 1,000 in 1990, and life
expectancy levels are approaching those of the developed world.
North Korea is highly militarized, with one-sixth of its
work force, or 1.25 million men, employed by the armed forces.
This military force, equal to that of India, is thought to be the
largest per capita in the world.
*****
News and Resources
Gerontological Society of America Meeting
GSA's 47th Annual Scientific Meeting will be held November
18-22 in Atlanta. A special lecture by Nobel laureate Robert W.
Fogel, "A Theory of Technophysio Evolution Combined with
Implications for Forecasting Population, Health Care and Pension
Costs," will be given on November 20 from 4 to 6 p.m. The
Demography of Aging interest group will meet on November 19, as
will an NIA Symposium on "Research Initiatives of the National
Institute on Aging." For a copy of the preliminary program, write
to GSA, 1275 K Street, NW, #350, Washington, DC 20005-4006, or
call 202-842-1275.
Population Clock on Internet
The Census Bureau now has an up-to-the-minute national
population count available on Internet. To access Popclock
through Worldwide Web, go to homepage at http://www.census.gov.
For those who use a gopher system, the address is
gopher.census.gov; at the initial menu, choose "Enter Main Data
Bank," then choose "Population," then choose "Popclock
Projection." This will give you the nation's total population.
For information about the Census Bureau's population clock, send
an e-mail message to gatekeeper@census.gov.
Secrets of Successful Family Planning Programs
Family planning programs face considerable challenges. To
maintain current levels of contraceptive use, 100 million more
married couples will need to be served by the year 2000 than got
services in 1990. Population Reports reviews what works for
successful family planning programs.
Successful programs are convenient, suit families' needs,
provide good service, and have good leadership. Contraceptive
prevalence increases with such factors as proximity of
facilities, variety of contraceptives offered, good communication
with clients, and reliance on research findings.
Support from national leaders and mass media help create
public consensus for family planning. Without subsidization, most
people in developing countries could not afford contraception.
Programs generally work with married women, but other groups
need to be reached. With attitudes about sexuality and family
structures changing, more young people are sexually active. It
has been found that men in sub-Saharan Africa often know more
about contraceptives than women and can strongly influence their
wives' contraceptive choices. [Population Reports, Johns Hopkins
School of Public Health, August 1994]
Pronatality Laws Failed to Speed Romanian Population Growth
Despite laws banning the importation of contraceptives,
prohibiting most abortions, and taxing childless couples, the
birth rate of Romania rose only slightly during the Ceaucescu
regime. Many Romanian women died as a result of illegal abortions
(10,000 deaths over 23 years) and infant mortality rates
increased (29 infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 1987).
Researchers recently concluded that the pronatality laws
reinforced Romanian society's patriarchal view of the role of
women. They found that sex was a taboo topic in homes, women
often had domineering husbands, unwanted pregnancies were common
and traumatic, and the economic struggle of daily life eroded
partner relations. Even in the early 1990s, after the
legalization of abortion, pronatal and patriarchal attitudes,
along with economic difficulties, persist. Self-induced and
nonprofessional abortions are still common. [Adriana Baban and
Henry P. David, Voices of Romanian Women, Transnational Family
Research Institute, 1994]
Books received The Day Before America: Changing the Nature of a
Continent, by William H. MacLeish. Boston: Houghton Mifflin,
1994. 277 pages. $21.95 hardcover. ISBN 0-395-46882-5. World War
III: Population and the Biosphere at the End of the Millennium,
by Michael Tobias. Santa Fe, NM: Bear & Company, 1994. 608 pages.
$29.95 hardcover. ISBN 1-879181-18-5. Looking for the Last
Percent: The Controversy Over Census Undercounts, by Harvey M.
Choldin. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1994. 264
pages. $17.00 paperback. ISBN 0- 8135-2040-1. The "Second India"
Revisited: Population, Poverty, and Environmental Stress Over Two
Decades, by Robert Repetto. Washington, DC: World Resources
Institute, 1994. 95 pages. $14.95 paperback. ISBN 0-915825- 96-1.
World Population--Turning the Tide: Three Decades of Progress, by
Stanley P. Johnson. London: Graham & Trotman/Martinus Nijhoff,
1994. 387 pages. $32.00 paperback. ISBN 185966-047-9.