UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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This newsletter is being made available by the Population Information
Network (POPIN) Gopher/Web site of the United Nations Population Division,
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collaboration with the Population Reference Bureau and with funding from
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POPULATION TODAY
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
Vol 23, No. 10, October 1995
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy
of Population Today have not been included here. For a
complete copy of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population
Reference Bureau,1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520,
Washington, D.C. 20009.
In this issue: ** Black Households: How Are They Doing
Economically? ** How Many Countries Are in the World? **
Spotlight on Germany ** News and Resources
India's Fertility Declines, But It Still Leads World in
Population Growth
By Leela Visaria and Pravin Visaria
A dramatic decline in birth rates_largely unheralded_is
taking place in India, the world's second most populous
country. Women in India are now averaging below four
children, down from over five children in 1970. The total
fertility rate (TFR, or average lifetime births per woman)
has been falling for two decades, from more than 5.3 children
per woman in 1970 to 3.6 children in 1992, according to
national statistics (see figure, next page). Fertility has
dropped faster than many population experts expected even a
few years ago. For example, in 1992, the UN projected that
Indian women would average 3.85 children for the first half
of the decade. Now, recently released estimates from India's
National Fertility and Health Survey suggest that even deeper
declines_to 3.4 children per woman_may have occurred.
These dramatic changes in childbearing are occurring in
a massive developing country with 931 million people, more
than three times as many as the United States. Despite the
fertility decline, India's population has been growing at
more than 2 percent annually for decades, and is currently
expanding at an estimated 1.9 percent per year. Only 3 of the
world's 10 largest countries_Nigeria, Pakistan, and
Bangladesh_are growing faster.
The engine behind India's fertility change is
modernization: rising levels of literacy, urbanization,
industrialization, modern communication and transportation,
and improvements in the status of women. Modern
contraception, made widely available by the government family
planning program, is also an important factor.
In the developing world, as education levels
rise_particularly those of women_family size tends to
decrease. Women with more education tend to marry later
(since they spend more time in school) and are more likely to
want smaller families and to use modern contraception.
In India, women's literacy levels are on the rise. They
have nearly tripled since 1961, when only 13 percent of women
and girls were literate. Even so, the majority of Indian
women today cannot read or write. In 1991, 39 percent of
Indian women and girls age seven and older could read,
compared with 64 percent of Indian men.
School attendance rates have also soared, but boys are
more likely than girls to go to school, especially beyond the
primary level. In a 1987-1988 survey, 42 percent of rural
girls ages 10 to 14, but 66 percent of boys, attended school;
80 percent of boys and 72 percent of girls in urban areas
went to school.
The electrification of rural areas, combined with the
growth of transportation and communications systems, is
changing the lives and aspirations of people in Indian
villages. Television, for example, now reaches almost 90
percent of the population.
Women's employment, which is associated with smaller
family size, has remained relatively low in India, however.
Less than one-third of all women were in the labor force in
1987-1988, the same proportion as in 1972-1973. Also, most
women work in agriculture, not modern sector jobs.
The TFR has fallen faster in urban areas, where women
are more likely to want smaller families. The pace of
urbanization is relatively slow. In 1991, 26 percent of
people in India lived in urban areas, just 6 percentage
points more than in 1971. However, nearly two-thirds of urban
dwellers live in cities of 100,000 or more. The number of
cities of more than 1 million jumped from 12 to 23 between
1981 and 1991. According to UN estimates, three Indian
cities_Bombay (15 million), Calcutta (12 million), and Delhi
(10 million)_rank among the world's 30 largest urban areas.
These social changes have radically changed childbearing
patterns. Indian women are waiting longer to marry and have
children, and are completing their childbearing at younger
ages than in the past. The average age at marriage is
increasing as more girls stay in school through their teens.
The average marriage age in 1961 was 16.1 years, and by 1971
it was 17.2 years. By 1992, the average age at marriage for
women was 20 years_the same as in the United States during
the baby-boom period.
A slower pace of childbearing among women over age 35
reflects greater control of fertility within marriage through
family planning_generally through sterilization or other
family planning methods. Between 1970 and 1989, the
proportion of women ages 15 to 44 using family planning
increased from 13 percent to 45 percent, according to the
Operations Research Group. The National Family and Health
Survey came in with a slightly lower estimate in 1992-1993_40
percent. The dramatic increase in contraceptive prevalence is
all the more impressive in a country where the family
planning program has been burdened with logistical and
financial constraints since its beginnings in the 1950s and
1960s.
Population prospects
Improvements in health and mortality have kept India's
population growing despite falling fertility. Life expectancy
at birth, which was 50 years in the early 1970s, has now
risen to about 60 years. A major contributor to these gains
was the decline in infant and child mortality, thanks partly
to the national child immunization program initiated in the
mid-1970s. The infant mortality rate, estimated at 200-225
infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 1947, and 134 in the
early 1970s, had fallen to 74 per 1,000 by 1993.
Because more children are surviving, India has a young
age structure that assures future population growth. Although
Indian couples are likely to have even smaller families as
the country continues to modernize, population momentum will
keep this country growing rapidly for several decades to
come. India is expected to surpass China as the most populous
country in the world before 2050.
For more information, see "India's Population in
Transition," by Leela Visaria and Pravin Visaria, Population
Bulletin 50, no. 3, October 1995. Cost: $7.00 each, bulk
discounts available. To order, call: 1-800-877-9881. Leela
Visaria is a professor at the Gujarat Institute of
Development Research, and Pravin Visaria is the director of
the Institute, located in Ahmedabad, India.
*****
Black Households: How Are They Doing Economically?
By Gretchen Witt and Susan Kalish
Despite some signs of movement toward greater equity,
wide economic disparities still exist between black and white
families in the United States.
The median income for black households was $19,500 in
1993, while for white households it was almost $33,000,
Census Bureau figures show. This represents a gap of about
$13,500. Moreover, the income gap has grown over time. In
1969, the median income difference between black and white
households was the equivalent of $12,700 in 1993 dollars.
Poverty rates for blacks are three times that of whites,
with about 31 percent of black families compared with about 9
percent of whites living below the poverty level in 1993.
Household wealth differences are even more striking (see
figure). The percentage of black households with no assets or
in debt was more than twice the percentage of comparable
white households. One-tenth of white households but about
one-fourth of black households had a zero or negative net
worth, according to just-released Census Bureau figures.
Household net worth measures the dollar value of assets (such
as the value of a home plus personal savings and investments)
minus debts ( such as mortgages, bank loans, and credit card
debt).
The net worth picture for black households appears to be
changing for the better, however. The proportion of black
households with zero or negative assets has decreased
steadily since 1984, when the proportion was almost 31
percent. In contrast, the proportion of white households
without assets actually increased from 8 to 10 percent in
this same nine-year period.
Black households also gained at the upper end of the net
worth scale. Since 1984, the proportion of black households
with a net worth greater than $100,000 doubled from 4 to 8
percent. But the gap between white and black households
remains wide. Between 1984 and 1993, the percent of white
households with net worths of $100,000 or more rose from 23
to 32 percent. The proportion of white households that fall
into this upper net worth category is about four times the
proportion of black households.
Both income and net worth suggest that black households
lag behind whites economically. Several factors contribute to
this situation. Blacks tend to have higher rates of
unemployment than whites. In the first quarter of 1995, the
unemployment rate for blacks was 10 percent, compared with
about 5 percent for whites.
Educational attainment is lower for blacks than for
whites. About 13 percent of black men over age 25 have a
bachelor's degree or higher, compared with about 26 percent
of whites. Family structure also plays a role. More than half
(about 54 percent) of black families are single- headed
households_with only one potential wage earner. In
comparison, about one-fifth (18 percent) of white families
are single-parent families.
Black householders are also less likely to own a home, a
key component of assets. In 1993, 42 percent of black
households (compared with 68 percent of white households)
were owned by the resident. Home equity made up about 63
percent of total assets of black households in 1991. In
addition, since income level and asset acquisition tend to be
a function of age, some of the differences between income and
net worth measures may be attributable to the younger age
structure of the black population.
Black households have made some economic progress over
the past decade. Nevertheless, black households are far from
having a distribution of net worth or income commensurate
with whites.
*****
How Many Countries Are in the World?
By Carl Haub
"In less than half_42 percent_of the world's countries,
women hold cabinet-level positions." We often read statements
such as this and, just as often, give little thought to just
how that "statistic" was derived. Of course, this percentage
would be the result of dividing the number of countries that
have women cabinet ministers by the number of countries in
the world. But that number in the denominator_the total
number of countries in the world_can be elusive. Just what is
a country? Different sources use different definitions, or
no definition at all, and they quite naturally come up with
different totals.
From time to time, PRB receives an information request
from an already-confused caller asking, "How many countries
are there?" It's been many years since we dealt with this
question in this space.
The simplest approach to finding an "answer" would be to
open up an almanac or yearbook and count how many countries
are listed. However, the number of countries depends on which
countries the publisher chose to include or, more practically
perhaps, had room for. Standard references definitely differ.
How many are there?
The Demographic Yearbook of the United Nations lists 234
countries or separately designated areas; the Britannica Book
of the Year, 216; the Department of State, 191; and the
National Geographic Society, 250. The reason for the
discrepancy lies in the universe of countries being
described. The Demographic Yearbook lists "countries or
areas" with a population of 50 persons or more who provide
data to the UN, the Britannica does not clearly define which
countries are included, the National Geographic Society
counts 191 independent countries plus 59 "dependencies and
areas of special sovereignty," and the State Department
counts independent states only. Other listings may lead one
to believe that there are as few as 166 or 173 countries.
You can buy a Coke in 195 countries, according to a
recent SNAPSHOT in USA Today. Does this mean that Coca-Cola
is available in 78 percent_or over 100 percent(!) _ of the
world's countries?
Before attempting to determine this elusive number, we
should first try to arrive at some agreed upon definition.
Webster's Dictionary offers a variety of definitions: "an
expanse of land of undefined but usually considerable
extent," or a "motherland," or "home region," or "a political
state or nation that is distinct as to name and the
characteristics ...of its people." Not too illuminating.
At PRB, we face the issue of country definition when
selecting entities for the annual PRB World Population Data
Sheet. At PRB we use two categories of countries: those that
are printed on the wallchart itself and those that, while not
printed, do figure into all world totals. In effect, this
process fixes which countries or areas will result in the
final total "world population." Some time ago, PRB chose the
term "geopolitical entities" to specify the countries shown.
But how to select them?
To begin with, all countries that are member states of
the UN as well as all others with a population of 150,000 or
more are included on PRB's printed Data Sheet. Up until the
1981 edition, that cutoff had been 200,000, but requests to
include the newly independent country of Belize (population
151,000) caused us to lower the threshold. Following that
rule, Palau, the newest UN member, appears under Oceania,
even though its population is just 17,000. The small nations
of Liechtenstein, St. Kitts-Nevis, and San Marino had been
moved to the printed Data Sheet when they became UN members.
Conversely, Switzerland, which is not a UN member, is
included by reason of its 7 million population.
Until recently, there was an unstated exception to PRB's
rule about UN membership. When the UN was created, the former
Soviet Union wanted 16 seats in the General Assembly, one
each for its "independent" constituent republics plus one for
the USSR itself. A compromise was reached allotting three
seats, one for the USSR and one each for the Byelorussian and
Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republics. That situation has
become moot, of course, since the USSR's breakup. Under PRB's
rule, Hong Kong's last appearance will be on the 1997 Data
Sheet, since it will become a part of China on July 1, 1997.
Further into the future, Macau will become an Administrative
Region of China on December 20, 1999 and, hence, will not
appear on the 2000 edition of the Data Sheet.
PRB's definition
PRB's method of selecting countries works as follows.
The 185 members of the UN are automatically included and are,
by definition, sovereign states. Additional completely
sovereign states that are not UN members are added to the
list. Of these, Switzerland is over the population threshold,
while Andorra (population 65,000), Monaco (population
31,000), Tonga (population 106,000), and Tuvalu (population
10,000) are below it. Next are the trickier issues of
nonsovereign places and disputed territories, such as Taiwan.
For dependencies and other similar areas, PRB's method
of choice is, no surprise, basically demographic. That is,
areas are counted as separate countries if their population
is shown separately from the parent country. Furthermore, the
population must be in permanent, not seasonal, residence.
Currently, the total number of countries satisfying one
of these criteria (150,000 or more population or UN
membership) is 198, and this is the number of countries on
PRB's printed 1995 Data Sheet. In addition, there are 38
other countries or areas (shown in the table at right) that
are considered separate places by PRB. All 236 geopolitical
entities are included in the spreadsheet used to construct
the Data Sheet. Their data are used to calculate regional
and world totals and weighted averages (such as birth rates).
The sum of their populations defines the demographic world by
PRB reckoning. There are, then, 236 countries in the world.
Details, details
A few examples to illustrate PRB's selection process are
in order. The Caribbean islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique,
which are overseas departments of France, appear on the Data
Sheet because their populations are over 150,000 and they are
not included in the total for "metropolitan" France. In
contrast, the population of Corsica (where Napoleon was
born), an island in the Mediterranean and a department of
France, is included in France's 58.1 million population.
Likewise, Easter Island's 2,800 population does not appear in
the spreadsheet used for PRB's World Data Sheet since it is
included in Chile's population as the Provincia Isla de
Pascua. Similarly, the Spanish enclaves of Cueta and Melilla
in northern Morocco are counted with Spain's population and
not considered separate. But the population of the south
Atlantic island of St. Helena (where Napoleon died), with its
dependencies Ascension and Tristan de Cuhna, is not included
in the United Kingdom's population and thereby raises the
country count by one. Some of the countries on the
spreadsheet can be quite small geographically_witness Central
Park-sized Monaco, for example.
The world country total is always in flux to some
degree, but there have been an unusual number of additions
and deletions from the list in recent years. Declines in
number have been caused by the merging of North and South
Yemen into a single country, Yemen, and the reunification of
the two Germanies. But additions to the world's countries
have been more numerous. The breakup of the Soviet Union
added 14 to the world count.
The dissolution of Yugoslavia added four countries
(Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, and Slovenia). The
remainder of Yugoslavia consists of Montenegro and Serbia,
although many countries have not recognized that combination.
Greece has protested the use of the name "Macedonia," which
is why the country is referred to as "the former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia" in UN publications and alphabetized
under "t." Finally, the split of the Czech Republic and
Slovakia, and of Eritrea from Ethiopia, added two more. In
future World Data Sheets, the Gaza Strip and West Bank may be
listed as a single entity, Palestine, if this alliance is
recognized.
Two countries, French Guiana and the Channel Islands,
both quite close to reaching 150,000 population, are on the
verge of moving from the relative obscurity of the
spreadsheet to being printed as separate entities on the
World Population Data Sheet. There are several dozen other
areas, all islands, that fail to meet the guidelines for PRB
"country status." Taken together, these areas have less than
5,000 people on them at any one time. We exclude areas that
contain only small military populations or scientific
expeditions. One strong contender, Svalbard, does boast a
winter population of about 3,000 Norwegians and Russians, but
it is not year-round and the Norwegians are counted as
residents of Norway.
Finally, the smallest country in the world in
population, according to PRB: the Pitcairn Islands, with a
permanent population of 71, descendants of Fletcher Christian
and other crew members of the Bounty. Sometimes, the world's
smallest countries can be the most interesting.
The spreadsheet version of PRB's 1995 World Population
Data Sheet, prepared using Microsoft Excel, is available on
disk for $12.50 +postage and handling. It contains data for
all the inhabited countries of the world (as defined by PRB).
PRB's 1995 World Population Data Sheet is available for $3.50
each, with bulk discounts available. To order, call: 1-800-
877-9881.
Small Countries
Estimated Population, 1995
Africa
Mayotte 97,000
St. Helena 7,000
North America
Bermuda 62,000
Greenland 58,000
St. Pierre and Miquelon 7,000
Latin America and the Caribbean
Anguilla 7,000
Aruba 66,000
British Virgin Islands 13,000
Cayman Islands 33,000
Falkland Islands 2,000
French Guiana 147,000
Montserrat 13,000
Turks and Caicos Islands 14,000
Virgin Islands 97,000
Europe
Andorra 65,000
Channel Islands 148,000
Faeroe Islands 47,000
Gibraltar 32,000
Isle of Man 70,000
Monaco 31,000
Vatican City 1,000
Oceania
American Samoa 57,000
Christmas Island 1,000
Cocos (Keeling) Islands 1,000
Cook Islands 19,000
Johnston Island 1,000
Kiribati 79,000
Midway Island 1,000
Nauru 10,000
Niue 2,000
Norfolk Island 2,000
Northern Mariana Islands 51,000
Pitcairn Islands *
Tokelau 2,000
Tonga 106,000
Tuvalu 10,000
Wallis and Futuna Islands 14,000
Wake Island 2,000
Total 1,375,000
Source: Spreadsheet for PRB's 1995 World Population Data Sheet.
* less than 100.
*****
Germany
Population: 81.7 million
Land area: 134,950 square miles
Births: 10 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 11 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 5.8 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: -0.1 percent per year
Total fertility: 1.3 births per woman
Life expectancy: 73(male)/79(female)
Capital city: Berlin
By Stefanie Durbin
On October 3, 1990, West and East Germany
reunified_known as die Wende, or `the change'_after the
collapse of communism in eastern Europe and the former Soviet
Union. Reunification has brought great social, economic, and
political change to the people of Germany.
Germany is about the size of Montana but is home to
almost 82 million people, mostly of German heritage. A
country poor in natural resources, Germany's markets are
export oriented and highly industrial. One-third of all jobs
are directly export related.
Emerging from a post-reunification slump, Germany's
economy is projected to grow in 1995. Although its industrial
sector is criticized by some as outmoded, Germany appears to
be making strides toward increased competitiveness, but still
has one of the most expensive labor markets in the world, the
highest tax rate, and costly social programs.
Recent efforts to curtail government spending on social
programs have met with mixed results, but German companies
and labor unions have joined to change the structure of the
labor market to increase competitiveness and lower costs.
One social program that is unlikely to be cut is the
parental leave program, which allows up to three years of
leave, with a stipend, and assurance of a comparable job when
the worker returns. This generous program is moored in an
effort to boost the German family in the face of a dwindling
birth rate. Germany's population bulge is at the mid-30 age
mark, with a precipitous decline in the number of people in
their 20s and teens. This, combined with Germany's total
fertility rate (the average number of children a woman will
bear in her lifetime) of only 1.3 births per woman, signals a
further population decline.
Abortion is a contentious issue, highlighting cultural
differences between the former East and West Germanies.
Formerly, East German women had access to abortion on demand.
West German women, however, could only receive abortions in
case of rape or severe hardship to the mother. A compromise
law, passed this summer, is unpopular in both camps. It makes
abortion illegal but not punishable if it is performed within
the first trimester and preceded by mandatory state-sponsored
counseling. States are prohibited from funding abortions
except for women whose income is less than $1,200 a month.
Recent changes in Germany's immigration laws have also
been controversial. Until 1993, Germany had one of the most
liberal immigration policies in Europe. However, leaps in
unemployment and racial tensions contributed to the
government's decision to curtail asylum laws in the summer of
1993, legislation that is credited for reducing the number of
asylum seekers by roughly 70 percent. In 1994, refugees from
the former Yugoslavia and Turkey made up the largest group of
asylum seekers.
In fact, foreigners make up 8.5 percent of the German
population, compared with less than 3 percent of foreigners
in western Europe as a whole. By some estimates, the foreign
population of Germany_which cannot vote_could surge to close
to 30 percent of the population by 2030. Immigration has been
a lightning rod for Germany's small but conspicuous neo-Nazi
movement, which was officially banned this year.
As a symbol of unification, the capital is slowly being
moved from Bonn, the former capital of West Germany, to
Berlin, the former capital of East Germany and the historic
capital city. The Reichstag, which was recently draped in
silver by the artist Christo, will house the new parliament.
*****
News and Resources
Immigration down in OECD countries
In many developed countries, 1993 and 1994 marked a
turning point in migration movements, according to a recent
report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD). In general, migrant flows are leveling
off, and host countries are showing a preference for
temporary migration and a wish to increase selectivity of
immigration based on labor market needs, says the report.
However, in almost all OECD countries, immigration continues
to contribute to population growth. [Trends in International
Migration: Continuous Reporting System on Migration: Annual
Report 1994. Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development. Contact: OECD, 2 rue Andre-Pascal, 75775 PARIS
CEDEX 16, France.]
Great Britain's marriage decline
Marriage hit a 50-year low in England and Wales in 1993.
Cohabitation rates, on the other hand, are rising_an option
that is often a precursor to marriage, and is popular
primarily among young adults. In the early 1990s, 7 of 10
first marriages were preceded by cohabitation, compared with
a 1970 rate of 1 in 10. [Population Trends, U.K.'s Office of
Population, Censuses, and Surveys, Summer 1995.]
March 1996 data conferences
The U.S. Census Bureau will hold its 1996 Annual
Research Conference and CASIC Technologies Interchange March
17-21. Contact: Maxine Anderson- Brown, Conference
Coordinator, Office of the Director, Bureau of the Census,
Washington, DC 20233, 301-457-2308.
On the next day, March 22, the Federal Committee on
Statistical Methodology, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS), the Joint Program in Survey Methodology, and the
Washington Statistical Society will hold a one-day workshop
on editing survey data at BLS. Deadline for proposals:
January 31, 1996. Send proposals to David Pierce, Federal
Reserve Board, Stop 401, Washington, DC 20551, 202-452-3895,
e-mail <midapoo@frb.gov>. Questions to Mark Pierzchala, 703-
235-5218, e-mail <mpierzchala@ag.gov>.
Fellowships
University of MichiganUSAID. The Population Fellows
Program, administered by the University of Michigan and
funded by USAID, offers two-year, post-degree fellowships in
population- related areas, placing fellows in developing
countries. Contact the program at the University of Michigan,
School of Public Health, 109 S. Observatory, Ann Arbor, MI
48109-2029.
Boston University-NIA. Boston University is offering
pre- and postdoctoral traineeships funded by the National
Institute on Aging (NIA). The deadline for 1996-1997
applications is January 15, 1996. Contact the program at the
Boston University Gerontology Center, 53 Bay State Road,
Boston, MA 02215, 617-353- 5045; fax: 617-353-5047.
Social Science Research Council-Ford Foundation. The
Social Science Research Council announces a new two-year
dissertation and postdoctoral fellowship program for social
and behavior research on sexuality. Deadline for application:
December 1, 1995. Contact the council at 605 Third Avenue,
New York, NY 10158, 212-661-0280; fax: 212-370-7896.
New books
Population in Asia. Warren C. Sanderson and Jee-Peng
Tan. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1995. 243 pages. $15.95
paper. ISBN: 0-231-10123-6.
Reconstructing Gender in the Middle East: Tradition,
Identity, and Power. Fatma Muge Gocek and Shiva Balaghi, eds.
New York: Columbia University Press, 1994. 233 pages. $16.50
paper. ISBN: 0-231-10123-6.
The Best Intentions: Unintended Pregnancy and the Well-
Being of Children and Families. Sarah S. Brown and Leon
Eisenberg, eds. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1995.
380 pages. $29.95 paper. ISBN: 0-309-05230-0.
The Economic Sociology of Immigration: Essays on
Networks, Ethnicity, and Entrepreneurship. Alejandro Portes,
ed. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1995. 310 pages.
$29.95 cloth. ISBN: 0-87154-682-5.
Women in a Changing Global Economy: 1994 World Survey on
the Role of Women in Development. United Nations Department
for Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development. New
York: United Nations, 1995. 105 papers. $9.95 paper. ISBN:
92-1-130163-7.