UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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This newsletter is being made available by the Population Information
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POPULATION TODAY
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
September 1995, Vol 23, No. 9
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy
of Population Today have not been included here. For a
complete copy of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population
Reference Bureau,1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520,
Washington, D.C. 20009.
In this issue: ** Hard Times Lower Fertility in Belarus **
Mexican Immigrants Shape California's Fertility, Future **
Spotlight on China
Beijing Women's Conference Highlights Women and Work
By Susan Kalish
The Fourth World Conference on Women, being held this
month in Beijing, is putting a spotlight on the sometimes
surprising roles the world's women play in supporting their
families and fostering economic and social development in
their communities. "One-fourth of all house- holds worldwide
are headed by women," states the Women's Conference draft
Platform of Action, "and many other households are dependent
on female income even where men are present." Women's
economic activity means survival to many families, especially
when we take nonwage economic activities into account, such
as production of food for home consumption. "Motherhood is
not limited to bearing children and caring for family
members," writes Judith Bruce of the Population Council,
"mothers provide substantial, primary, or sole economic
support to a large proportion of families in the world."1
Furthermore, Bruce notes, there is a "global trend toward an
increasing proportion of mother-supported families_that is,
families in which mothers are the primary or sole economic
providers."
The key role of women in social change has been a common
thread running through recent UN conferences. In the 1992 UN
environmental conference, the 1994 International Conference
on Population and Development (ICPD), and the 1995 Social
Summit, the world's countries recognized women as
environmental managers and natural allies in achieving
sustainable development. Women's advocates point out that
women spend more of their income than men on what might be
called social reinvestment: nutrition, health, and school
fees for their children.
This new view of women's economic role has fostered a
new development paradigm that downplays classic
infrastructure improvement projects, such as construction of
roads or dams, and promotes smaller, human-scale investments
in health, education, and microenterprise_much of it
channeled to women. To some extent, development agencies have
listened. The World Bank and USAID have both strengthened
their programs for women in development.
What is women's work?
Before the 1970s, development specialists tended to view
women primarily as mothers and homemakers. In 1970,
population scholar Ester Boserup published the seminal work,
Women's Role in Economic Development, and in that same year
the UN General Assembly called for the "full integration of
women in the total development effort."2 Researchers began to
document the extent to which women in developing countries
carry out economically productive activity in the informal
sector, which rarely gets counted in official economic
statistics. Some of this work is unpaid, such as growing
crops for home use; but much of it generates cash, such as
sales of crafts or produce.
Constraints on women
Women around the world, however, face many constraints
in their economic endeavors. The Women's Conference draft
platform calls for the removal of these and other inequities
in women's participation in the economy and policymaking.
Low participation in the modern labor force. Although it
has been increasing over the past two decades, women's labor
force participation tends to be lower than that of men all
around the world. In Africa, 71 women per 100 men are counted
as economically active, compared with 85 percent in Eastern
Europe and 62 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean (see
table).
The gender_earnings gap. Reflecting prevailing social
hierarchies, women in many countries may be excluded from
performing certain work, or be paid less for the same work as
men. Further, responsibilities for children may cut down on
the length and regularity of women's work patterns. In South
Korea, for example, women earn $56 to every $100 men earn; in
Kenya, $85. The comparable U.S. figure is $75.
The gender_education gap. The Beijing Platform of Action
calls for equal enrollment of girls and boys in primary and
secondary school by 2005. Currently, in Africa, 49 percent of
boys, but only 37 percent of girls age 12 to 17 are enrolled
in school, according to UNESCO figures.
Lack of health care and family planning services. Each year,
as the draft Platform of Action points out, about half a
million women die from pregnancy-related causes. In addition,
control over the number and timing of births can shorten the
total number of years that women spend in childrearing and
enable them to be more economically productive. This shift
can provide women with more resources to invest in the
nutrition, health, and education of fewer children. Investing
in women's health more broadly "is now being recognized as an
essential component of social and economic growth," according
to Ann Tinker3 of the World Bank, which has increased its
lending for health, population, and nutrition fivefold in
five years.
Lack of child care. The presence of small children, who
require care and supervision, is a constraint on women's
economic production. Lack of child care alternatives may also
prevent women from moving from home- or neighborhood-based
work in the informal sector to working for wages.
Lack of access to credit. According to the UN Population
Fund, which has invested about $3 million in small loans to
women since the late 1980s, providing credit creates
alternatives to early marriage and childrearing, provides
incentives for limiting the number of children, and creates a
potential for women's time to have greater economic value.
The Beijing draft calls for an end to the legal and practical
barriers to obtaining credit, land, and opportunity for
women.
Exclusion from public life/political power. In many
Islamic countries, women are limited to the home or
discouraged from traveling by themselves, which constrains
work possibilities. Throughout the world, women have less
representation in political life than men. In a 1994 study of
178 parliaments, women held 1 in 10 seats, although the share
is rising, according to the InterParliamentary Union in
Geneva.
An overall barrier to women's participation in
development is that women often bear much responsibility, yet
have limited authority to act. For example, only 2 percent of
women interviewed in a Senegal study would decide for
themselves to seek care in the event of pregnancy
complications: for the remainder, the decision rested with
their husbands.4 The Beijing draft Platform of Action calls
for establishing shared power and responsibility between
women and men at home, in the workplace, and in the wider
community.
Notes
1.J. Bruce, C.B. Lloyd, and A. Leonard, Families in Focus:
New Perspectives on Mothers, Father, and Children (New York:
The Population Council, 1995).
2.Irene Tinker, Persistent Inequalities: Women and World
Development (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990).
3.Ann Tinker, "Women's Health and Development," (Paper
delivered at the American Public Health Association Annual
Meeting, Nov. 2, 1994).
4.Ann Tinker et al., Women's Health and Nutrition: Making a
Difference (World Bank Discussion Paper No. 256, 1994).
*****
Hard Times Lower Fertility in Belarus
By Carl Haub
"The transition is killing us."
This is how one Belarussian summed up the negative
impact of the breakup of the former Soviet Union on his
country. On a visit to the Republic of Belarus ("White
Russia") this March, signs of economic difficulties and their
demographic impact were everywhere.
The Kansas-sized country occupies a strategic position
between Russia and Eastern Europe_a location that has caused
untold suffering in the past, most recently when the country
lost one-fourth of its population during World War II.
Following the near-total wartime devastation (only four
buildings were left standing in Minsk, the capital), Belarus
slowly rebuilt to a point where people were housed and the
standard of living began to rise. Lacking in natural
resources, landlocked Belarus had been highly dependent on
raw materials and factory orders from Russia. The end of the
USSR in 1991 shattered these economic relationships.
Today, severe inflation has wiped out savings and eroded
salaries. Unemployment is rising. The state itself is running
out of money and is unable to provide the same level of
services as before the breakup.
Demographic changes attest to the severity of the
economic crisis. For the first time since the war, Belarus'
population size is now decreasing, from 10.4 million in 1994
to 10.3 in 1995. This results from both a sharp drop in the
birth rate and a rise in deaths, particularly from stress-
related circulatory disease and accidental deaths. Life
expectancy at birth fell to only 63.8 years for males in
1993, a level not seen in 40 years.
The gloomy economic outlook also shows up in birth
statistics. The crude birth rate fell to only 10.7 births per
1,000 population in 1994, down from 13.9 in 1990. During the
same period, the death rate rose from 10.7 to 12.5 per 1,000.
As a result, Belarus is now experiencing natural
decrease_more deaths annually than births. Official data show
that the decline in births continued through the first
quarter of 1995 when there were 11 percent fewer babies born
than in the first quarter of 1994. Belarussian women have
reduced their birth expectations quite sharply, unpublished
survey data show. When surveyed, women reported that they
wanted to have about 2.1 children, but the number they expect
to have averages only 1.5. Official data from the Ministry of
Health on contraceptive use show that family planning is more
prevalent than previously thought. Almost 30 percent of women
of childbearing age use the IUD and 6 percent use the pill.
While the economy is the number one reason reported for
avoiding childbearing, the climate of fear and uncertainty
generated in the wake of the 1986 nuclear disaster at
Chernobyl has also discouraged it. The explosion at
Chernobyl, located less than 20 miles across the border in
Ukraine, spread radiation across the southeast part of
Belarus. Contraceptive use is considerably higher in the
oblasts (regions) where the effects of Chernobyl were the
greatest.
There are other signs of unexpected social change. The
previously stable marriage rate has also fallen sharply. The
number of marriages fell from 99,229 in 1990 to 75,540 in
1994, while divorces rose from 34,986 to 44,125. The decline
in marriages continued into 1995. Extramarital births have
risen to 1 in 10 in a country where they were once rather
stable. And, although abortion rates were always high in much
of the USSR, they have now risen in Belarus to about 180
abortions to every 100 births.
Many Belarussians look back with nostalgia to the "old
days," with their modest but reliable standard of living.
President Lukashenka seems to favor reunification with
Russia, and the people themselves have expressed the same
sentiment in a recent referendum. They also voted for a
return to Soviet-style symbols on the flag and currency;
however, in June, the national treasury said that it would be
unable to reprint currency right away due to a lack of funds.
*****
Mexican Immigrants Shape California's Fertility, Future
By B. Meredith Burke
Most demographic studies of California and other heavy-
immigration states focus on numbers of arrivals, or increases
in immigration levels. But it is fertility that produces the
most long-lasting changes in a population. In California, an
important but largely neglected aspect of the immigration
story is the fertility patterns of the state's immigrants.
The high fertility of California's immigrants, mostly of
Mexican origin, holds profound implications for the future
prospects of California's child and youth population.
California births have increased dramatically since the
"baby-bust" nadir of 337,000 in 1975. Births climbed to
400,000 in 1980, 470,000 in 1985, and 612,000 in 1990,
dipping only slightly to 601,000 in 1992, according to the
Demographic Research Unit of the California Department of
Finance. Since 1975, the ethnic composition of women giving
birth was transformed. The share of births to Hispanic women
doubled from 20 to 44 percent, while the share to non-
Hispanic white women dropped from 68 percent to less than 38
percent (see figure). The African- American share went from 9
percent to less than 8 percent, while the share of "others"
(primarily those of Asian ancestry) rose from 3 to 10
percent.
One reason for the jump in Hispanic births was that,
between 1970 and 1992, California's population of Hispanic
women of childbearing age (ages 15 to 44) quadrupled, growing
from one-half million to 2.1 million. A second reason was the
relatively high fertility of Hispanic women. The 1992 TFR
(total fertility rate, or average lifetime births per woman)
of Hispanic women was 3.5 children_twice that of white women
(1.7 children). Thus, although there were roughly twice as
many non-Hispanic white women of childbearing age in 1992
(3.9 million) as Hispanic women (2.1 million), the number of
births to Hispanic women exceeded births to whites.
Birth rates and immigration
Immigrant mothers played a major role in the increase in
Hispanic births and total births in California. In terms of
numbers, births to U.S.-born women have remained close to the
1970 level of 324,375 for more than a decade, rising to just
334,008 in 1992 (see table). But during that period, the
total number of births increased by two-thirds_from 362,652
to 600,838_an increase largely attributable to immigrant
women.
Between 1985 and 1990, California's TFR rose from 1.74
births per woman to 2.5 in 1990, dipping slightly to 2.42 in
1992. It was births to immigrants that pushed fertility above
the replacement level of 2.1, the level of childbearing at
which, if continued, a generation would exactly replace
itself.
Different race and ethnic groups have different
proportions of foreign-born mothers (see Speaking
Graphically, page 6). In 1992, 9 out of 10 births to white
and black women in California were to mothers born in the
United States, according to state birth records. But only a
minority of Hispanic births_27 percent_were to U.S.-born
women. Almost three- fourths of Hispanic births were to
immigrant women. About half of Japanese births, 10 percent of
Chinese, and 11 percent of Filipino births were to U.S.-born
women. Although Asian women giving birth also tended to be
predominantly immigrants, the numbers involved were
relatively small compared with Hispanics. Women born in
Mexico accounted for well over half (61 percent) of all
Hispanic women giving birth and more than one-fourth (27
percent) of all California births in 1992.
The emergence of women of Mexican ancestry as the
largest single ethnic category of childbearing women in
California has far-ranging consequences. National-level data
on women of Mexican heritage who gave birth in 1992 (64
percent immigrant, 36 percent U.S. born) indicate patterns of
high fertility and relatively low education levels. In 1992,
the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reported
that women of Mexican ancestry in the United States had the
"highest fertility of any racial or ethnic group for whom
rates can be reliably recorded." Nationally, only 39 percent
of women of Mexican heritage giving birth in 1992 had
completed at least 12 years of schooling, NCHS reported.
Immigrants tend to have a completed family size that is
between the levels prevailing in their country of origin and
the country in which they settle. The TFR of Mexico is 3.5
children, down from 6 children in 1973, when the government
endorsed family planning. However, the rural areas averaged 5
children, and Mexican entrants to California, especially
those who enter illegally, are primarily from rural areas.1
Mexican immigrants in the 1990 Census had extremely low
levels of schooling compared with both U.S. natives and other
immigrants. Among those entering the United States in the
late 1980s, 28 percent of Mexicans (but 9 percent of other
immigrants) age 25 and older had fewer than five years of
schooling; 29 percent of Mexicans (but 9 percent of other
immigrants) had 5 to 8 years of schooling; and 18 percent of
Mexicans (but 12 percent of other immigrants) had 9 to 11
years of schooling.
Hispanics also have relatively high teen birth rates.
Teen mothers are more likely than other teens to fail to
graduate from high school, be on welfare, and have more
children. In California, the 1992 Hispanic teen birth rate of
123 per 1,000 women was four times that of Asians (32 per
1,000), three times higher than that of whites (39 per
1,000), and 20 percent higher than that of blacks (105 per
1,000).
State data show that of the 70,867 California teen
births in 1992, 30 percent were to Mexican entrants (see
table). An additional 25 percent were to U.S.-born Hispanics,
an ever-growing number of whom are the daughters of foreign-
born women, primarily from Mexico. Only about 16,290, or 23
percent, of births to teenagers were to U.S.-born whites.
Implications for the future
The number of Hispanic women of childbearing age is
expected to rise steeply in the future, from 1.9 million in
1990, to 2.5 million in 2000, to 3.2 million in 2010,
according to California Department of Finance estimates. In
2015, it is projected to reach 3.6 million, outnumbering the
number of white women of childbearing age (3.4 million).
Unless Hispanic fertility declines dramatically, births will
also increase steeply.
Large family size and low parental education are both
associated with lower educational attainment for the next
generation.2 Hispanics have significantly lower education
levels than any other major ethnic group. For U.S. children
born in the 1980s, 37 percent of Hispanic fathers left school
before grade 10 and almost 53 percent graduated from high
school. By contrast, over 90 percent of both black and white
fathers reached grade 10, over 80 percent graduated from high
school, and nearly half had at least one year of college.
The proportion of children in large families (five or
more children), which has been dropping for most ethnic
groups over the past several decades, is rebounding for
Hispanics. Census Bureau researcher Donald Hernandez noted
that as many as 40 percent of Hispanic adolescents born in
1973 were in large families,3 compared with 24 percent for
blacks and 15 percent overall. But the post-1980 fertility
increase suggests this proportion may climb to 60 percent for
California Hispanics by 2005 and, hence, to as much as 30
percent for all children in the state.
The United States, in the past, has demonstrated fairly
rapid absorption of immigrants and their children to society.
But a post-industrial economy requires workers with high
educational levels, and is not likely to easily absorb large
percentages of children of low-skilled immigrants.
Immigration is a major reason that, in the 1990 Census,
California ranked first in the proportion of men age 20-24
who had not graduated from high school.4 Given the risk
factors, it seems likely that, in the early years of the 21st
century, California's children may on average perform less
well in school, be more likely to enter a lesser-skilled
occupation, and thus be more likely to earn a lower income
than children growing up a few decades ago.
For more information, see B. Meredith Burke, Ph.D., Trends
and Compositional Changes in Fertility: California Circa
1970-1990, paper delivered at the Population Association of
America 1995 Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA.
Notes
1.W.T. Dagodag, "Illegal Mexican Immigration to California
from Western Mexico," in Patterns of Undocumented Migration,
ed. R.C. Jones (New Jersey: Rowman & Allanheld, 1984).
2.Donald J. Hernandez with David E. Myers, America's
Children: Resources from Family, Government, and the Economy
(New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1993).
3.Hernandez, America's Children.
4.Freya Schultz, "California Educational Attainment vis-a-vis
the U.S. in the 1990 Census: Tables," (mimeo)(Santa Barbara
County: Administration Office, 1994).
*****
China
Population: 1.2 billion
Land area: 3.6 million sq. miles
Births: 18 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 6 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 44 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 1.1 percent
Total fertility: 1.9 births per woman
Life expectancy: 67 male/70 female
Capital City: Beijing
By Susan Kalish
China, by far the most populous country in the world, is
home to 22 percent of the earth's inhabitants. It shares
borders with 15 other nations. This geographically diverse
country has about the same land mass as the United States but
more than four times its population. Most of the people_92
percent_are Han Chinese but 55 ethnic minorities are
recognized by the government.
An ancient civilization that gave porcelain and
firecrackers to the world, China has gone through enormous
political, social, economic, and demographic changes since
the end of World War II. The war's end in 1945 ended a near-
century of foreign domination. Civil war continued until
1949, with the founding of the People's Republic of China,
under the leadership of Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist
Party. Mao then tried to consolidate the country politically;
to modernize China's infrastructure and outlook; and to
educate and provide for its enormous population_while making
the best of its Cold War isolation from the West. Following
Mao's death in 1976, Chinese leadership has been attempting
to create a flexible, market-driven economy, but to
accomplish this under the rubric of one-party, centralized
political control. Diplomatic relations with the United
States were normalized in 1972.
China has experienced tremendous economic change. The
Economist recently reported that the share of China's
industrial output from state-owned enterprises fell from 78
percent in 1978 to 43 percent in 1994. The Chinese government
estimates that between 1988 and 1994, its industrial output
grew an average of 18 percent per year in real terms.
Development, however, has brought serious air pollution to
the cities. Industrial dumping has created a shortage of safe
water in some areas, particularly in north China.
Few countries have experienced such profound changes in
fertility patterns as China. The hardships of the Great Leap
Forward depressed the TFR (total fertility rate, or average
number of children per woman) from 5.8 children in 1950 to
3.3 in 1961. When better times came, postponed births created
a fertility boom, driving up the TFR to 7.5 in 1963. China
adopted broad population policies covering delayed marriage,
birth spacing, sterilization, a variety of contraceptive
methods, and abortion. Strategies also included improving the
status of women through education and employment, public
education campaigns, and universal access to reproductive
health care. In 1979, when the TFR was 2.8, the government
promulgated its "one-child" campaign. The policy offered both
incentives and disincentives, as well as community and legal
pressures, that have been controversial in China and around
the world. In 1994, the Chinese government reported that the
TFR had fallen below 2 children per woman, and is currently
estimated at 1.9 children. Many believe birthrates will rise
as central control weakens.
The UN projects that, even with slowed growth, China's
population could increase to 1.5 billion 2025, although India
could surpass China as the most populous nation by 2045.
However, slowed growth is bringing population aging to this
vast country. There are now 75 million Chinese age 65 or
older_more than the entire population of the Philippines. The
older population of China is expected to double by 2035 and
almost triple between now and 2050.
As China hosts the 1995 World Conference on Women, its
population policies and problems are sure to be in the media
spotlight.
*****
Pop conference to precede Germany's EXPO 2000
A mid-decade follow-up to the Cairo International
Conference on Population and Development will take place in
1999 in Hannover, Germany, reports the German World
Population Fund. The conference will precede EXPO 2000, the
millennial world's fair, which will reportedly highlight
environmental issues. According to Dr. Nafis Sadik of the
UNFPA, "EXPO 2000 will be about managing the future, and
population will be one of EXPO's major themes." [DSW
Newsletter, June 1995]
Rockefeller support for African dissertations
The Rockefeller Foundation invites doctoral students from
sub-Saharan Africa who are enrolled in U.S. or Canadian
universities to apply for dissertation research support. The
program enables students to return to Africa for extensive
research involving field observation or the use of primary
sources available only in Africa. Priority is given to topics
in agriculture, environment, health, life sciences,
population, and schooling. Maximum award: $20,000.
Application deadlines: October 1, 1995 and March 1, 1996. For
more information, contact: African Dissertation Internship
Awards, The Rockefeller Foundation, 420 Fifth Avenue, New
York, NY 10018-2702.
Paperwork Reduction Act becomes law
In May, President Clinton signed the Paperwork Reduction Act,
which establishes by law an Interagency Council on
Statistical Policy to coordinate information sharing among
federal statistical agencies. The act provides a formal
structure for informal meetings of statistical agencies that
have been going on for some time. For more information,
contact Katherine Wallman, chief statistician, Office of
Management and Budget, 202-395-3093.
Newborns in Japan: longest lives ever
For the 10th year in a row, Japanese baby girls have the
highest life expectancy on Earth: 83.0 years in 1994. Newborn
boys have a life expectancy of 76.6 years_creating the
largest gender gap in life expectancy in Japan's history.
Seven of ten girls and almost half of the boys are expected
to live to age 80. [Source: Asahi Shimbun, July 3, 1995.]
Minitexts from PRB
Two minitexts are now available from PRB, both from PRB's
Population Bulletin series:
Population: A Lively Introduction, by Joseph A. McFalls, Jr.
This teacher- and student-pleaser, originally published in
1991, has been newly revised and updated in this 1995
edition.
Population and Health: An Introduction to Epidemiology, by
Ian R.H. Rockett. A highly readable introduction to the basic
methods and measures of this population-based health science.
Price: $7.00 each, bulk discounts available. Call 1-800-877-
9881.
New books
Re-Charting America's Future: Responses to Arguments Against
Stabilizing U.S. Population and Limiting Immigration. Roy
Beck. Petoskey, MI: The Social Contract Press, 1994. 216
pages. $18.95. ISBN 1-881780-06-6.
Population Economics. Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka.
Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1995. 275 pages. $30.00. ISBN
0-262-18160-6.
The Role of Family Planning Programs in Contemporary
Fertility Transitions. John Bongaarts. Research Division
Working Paper No. 71. New York: The Population Council, 1995.
Free.
On Population Growth and Revisionism: Further Questions.
Geoffrey McNicholl. Research Division Working Paper No. 72.
New York: The Population Council, 1995. Free.
Household Structure and Poverty: What Are the Connections?
Cynthia B. Lloyd. Research Division Working Paper No. 74. New
York: The Population Council, 1995. Free.
In Defense of the Alien. Lydio F. Tomasi, ed. New York:
Center for Migration Studies, 1995. 244 pages. $14.95. ISBN
0-934733-80-5.
The New Role of Women: Family Formation in Modern Societies.
Hans-Peter Blossfeld, ed. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1995.
266 pages. $55.00. ISBN 0-8133-2306-1.
The Catholic Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital.
William Sander. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1995. 161 pages.
$50.00. ISBN 0-8133-2264-2.