UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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This document is being made available by the Population Information
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POPULATION TODAY
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
Vol. 23, No. 7/8, July/August 1995
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy
of Population Today have not been included here. For a
complete copy of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population
Reference Bureau,1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520,
Washington, D.C. 20009.
In this issue: ** High School Students Take Serious Risks **
National Curriculum Standards Boost Population Studies **
Spotlight on Mexico
New Project Helps Teach Undergraduates Hands-On Data Skills
By Susan Kalish
A new project, based at the University of Michigan
Population Studies Center, will provide the materials to give
college freshmen and sophomores hands-on experience in
analyzing U.S. Census Bureau data. Sociology professor
William H. Frey has been awarded a three-year grant from the
U.S. Department of Education Fund for the Improvement of Post
Secondary Education (FIPSE) to package and disseminate to
campuses around the country an educational approach that he
has been using since 1988.
"This is an unusual approach. In most universities,
students do not get their feet wet in data until they learn
statistical skills, which generally wouldn't happen before
the junior or senior year," says Frey. "Specialized data
analysis skills are generally taught in upper-level methods
courses, but detached from the content questions that hook
student interest," he adds. "The aim of this project is to
get students working with data early, and in the context of
questions they are interested in, by adding a data analysis
component to courses on the family, or women's roles, or
African-American studies, or other topics."
The FIPSE-supported project is developing data modules
and a work book of exercises to be shared with a network of
interested faculty around the country. The topics of the
first two modules, to be completed by the start of the 1995-
1996 academic year, are racial/ethnic inequality and gender
gaps in occupation and earnings. Future modules will focus on
the family, the elderly, and cohort demography. Data come
from the U.S. Census from 1950 through 1990. Under the
project, data will be made available through the Internet. An
on-line conference with a "list server" (automated recipient
list) will create what Frey calls an ongoing "virtual
workshop"_providing a venue for participating faculty to
receive updated materials, share experiences, and work out
their problems.
There are no charges to participate in the program or
receive materials. However, instructors are required to
report on their use of the prototype materials. Also,
students must purchase the commercial data analysis software
package at a cost of about $5.00 per student.
Usable high tech
The FIPSE-supported project builds on Frey's seven years
of experience in teaching University of Michigan freshmen and
sophomores the practical and conceptual skills that they need
to use demographic data to investigate social issues.
Students work in teams of three. The peer support seems to
help students get comfortable with the new computer skills
and with posing their own questions to a set of data.
Students interact with the data through an extremely user-
friendly computer program called CHIPendale. The program
enables novices to run cross-tabulations of census data and
present these in table or chart format.
Through skill-building exercises, students practice
controlling for different variables and observing the effect.
In fact, without acquiring this basic sense of the logic of
data, even advanced students wielding sophisticated
statistical techniques often go wrong.
The course provides training in the use of technology that is
now readily accessible_but often underutilized_in university
computer labs. "Undergraduates tend to use computers for word
processing or recreation," comments Frey, "not as tools for
analysis."
Ready to think about data
Most freshmen and sophomores may not be ready for a
high-powered statistics package like SAS or SPSS (the
standard statistical packages for social sciences research).
They are ready, however, to observe distribution patterns in
a percentage table or a bar chart, to pose a sociological
question, and use data to test a hypothesis. They are ready
to learn how to construct proofs that rely on presenting data
in a logical way.
Another benefit of such a course is that students become
literate in common quantitative measures_such as birth rate,
poverty, or household. In general, students come to
appreciate data as a tool for understanding how a variety of
societal changes are adopted and transmitted across different
groups in the population.
"What is really being taught is the logic of social
science inquiry," comments Frey. "That is, first to look for
differences that we want to explain. Then, to control the
data in some way_along some variable. If the differences go
away, your hypothesis is right. If the differences do not
disappear or are not appreciably reduced, then you have to
look for another explanation to test."
In addition to the U.S. Department of Education/FIPSE
program, other funders include the University of Michigan and
the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. The Great Lakes Colleges
Association helped develop and pretest the modules.
For more information, contact William H. Frey, Population
Studies Center, University of Michigan, e-mail: <WILLIAM.FREY
@UM.CC.UMICH.EDU>.
Hands-On Data Analysis (sidebar)
This year, University of Michigan students in the Social
and Demographic Change in America course_the prototype for
the FIPSE modules_saw firsthand how census data could
illuminate aspects of the gender gap in occupation and
earnings. The data on full-time, year-round employed doctors
came from the 5 percent sample of the 1990 Census.
It was striking to note the difference in the percentage
of women doctors among different age groups: 26 percent of
doctors age 25 to 34 are women, compared with 11 percent of
doctors age 45 to 54. Since most people complete professional
school as young adults, students learn how comparing the
characteristics of different age cohorts in one census year
can be one way of suggesting changes in occupational
attainment over time.
The next question to come up was whether the new pattern
of occupational attainment erased the gender pay gap. But, a
gender wage gap persisted, even among younger physicians age
25 to 34. At the lower end of the wage scale, 61 percent of
younger women doctors, but only 48 percent of younger men
doctors earned less than $40,000 per year. In the middle
range of income, gender representation was much more even,
with 32 percent of women and 35 percent of men earning
between $40,000 and $99,999. In the upper range, only 7
percent of women compared with 17 percent of men physicians
earned $100,000 or more.
*****
Many High School Students Take Serious Risks
Many students in the United States practice behaviors that
place them at risk for serious health problems and even
death, according to the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC).
In the United States, 72 percent of all deaths among
school-age youth and young adults (ages 5 to 24) arose from
four causes: motor vehicle crashes (30 percent), homicide (19
percent), suicide (11 percent), and other unintentional
injuries (12 percent). Results from the 1993 Youth Risk
Surveillance survey point to several risk behaviors that
contribute to these causes of death among high school youth.
The national, school-based survey reports on a representative
sample of high school students and also provides figures for
some states.
With motor vehicle crashes the leading cause of death
for teens and young adults, 19 percent of students in grades
9 through 12 nationwide reported they rarely or never used a
safety belt when riding in a car or truck driven by someone
else (see Speaking Graphically, page 6). Most likely to
report buckling up infrequently or never were students in
South Dakota (48 percent), Massachusetts (41 percent),
Louisiana (38 percent), West Virginia (34 percent),
Mississippi (33 percent), and Tennessee (31 percent).
In addition, during the 30 days preceding the interview,
about one-third of students nationwide (35 percent) had
ridden with a driver who had been drinking alcohol.
For bicycle and motorcycle riders, failure to wear a
helmet was a common risk behavior. Three-fourths of students
had ridden a bicycle during the year preceding the survey,
but 93 percent of bike riders rarely or never wore a bicycle
helmet. About one-fourth of students had ridden a motorcycle
during the same period, and 40 percent of these rarely or
never wore a helmet.
More than one-fifth (22 percent) of students reported
they had carried a weapon (such as a gun, knife, or club) at
some time in the 30 days preceding the survey. Male students
(34 percent) were more likely than female students (9
percent) to have carried a weapon during this time. Almost 14
percent of male students and nearly 2 percent of female
students reported they carried a gun.
Students often perceive school itself as a dangerous
place, according to the survey. During the year before the
survey, 7 percent of students were threatened or injured with
a weapon on school property. About 16 percent of students had
been in a physical fight on school grounds. During the month
before the survey, about 12 percent of students had carried a
weapon to school. Just over 4 percent of students had missed
at least one day of school during the month preceding the
survey because they felt unsafe at school or felt unsafe
traveling to or from school.
Nearly one-fourth (24 percent) of students reported
having thought about suicide during the previous year, and
about 9 percent had actually made a suicide attempt. For 3
percent, a suicide attempt resulted in an injury, poisoning,
or overdose that had to be treated by a doctor or a nurse.
In other risk-taking behavior, about 81 percent of
students nationally had tried alcohol; 33 percent had used
marijuana; 5 percent had tried cocaine, and almost 70 percent
had smoked cigarettes. Close to half (48 percent) had had at
least one drink of alcohol in the month preceding the survey,
14 percent were frequent cigarette smokers, and just under
one-fifth (18 percent) had smoked marijuana during the
previous month. About half of currently sexually active
students nationwide (53 percent) reported that they or their
partner had used a condom during the last sexual intercourse.
This means that almost half failed to use a condom, putting
themselves at possible risk of contracting sexually
transmitted diseases or becoming pregnant.
Some health-building behaviors were noted in the survey.
Nearly two-thirds of students had taken part in vigorous
physical exercise for at least 20 minutes on three or more
days during the week preceding the interview. Male students
(75 percent) were more likely than female students (56
percent) to report exercising.
Poor eating habits and a tendency to be overweight_which
have implications for heart disease and other health problems
in later life_are patterns that tend to be established in
youth. The CDC survey found that about one-third (34 percent)
of all students nationwide assessed themselves as overweight.
About 40 percent of students_and about 61 percent of white
and Hispanic female students_reported they were currently
trying to lose weight.
Two-thirds (66 percent) of students nationwide had eaten
no more than two servings of foods typically high in fat
content during the day preceding the survey. However, only 15
percent of students had eaten five or more servings of fruits
and vegetables the previous day.
Source: Laura Kann et al., "Youth Risk Behavior
Surveillance_United States, 1993," Morbidity and Mortality
Weekly Report 44 (S-1), March 24, 1995.
*****
National Curricula Make Place for Population
By Kimberly Crews
For the past 50 years, world population has multiplied
more rapidly than ever before, and more rapidly than it will
ever grow in the future. Although population dynamics have
been a major engine of social change in this century,
students do not generally learn about basic population
dynamics before college. The development of new national
curriculum standards may change that situation and bring
population dynamics within the K_12 curriculum.
In response to growing concerns about the
competitiveness of U.S. education, the country's governors in
1989 called for national curriculum standards. The standards
effort garnered support not only from governors, but also the
U.S. Congress, and Presidents Clinton and Bush. It was signed
into law as the Goals 2000: Educate America Act of 1994.
However, a changed mood in Congress has made some aspects of
the standards legislation newly controversial and future
funding uncertain.
New standards
Groups of professional educators in various content
areas have been working on developing standards with the U.S.
Department of Education and the Congressionally established
National Council on Education Standards and Testing. Some
sets of standards have been finalized: geography, history,
foreign language, civics and government, mathematics, and
arts. Others, such as science and English, are still in
draft. The standards will be used by states and local school
districts on a voluntary basis to guide their own standards
and curriculum development.
A review of the geography, science, history, and civics and
government standards found that these subject areas contain
guidance for students to learn about basic population
dynamics, historical population trends, the implications of
population trends, and the cognitive skills necessary to
understand and analyze this information.
If teachers follow these voluntary standards to help
structure their curricula, all graduating high school seniors
would be demographically literate. To achieve this goal,
however, teachers at all grade levels need to develop their
own demographic skills.
Under the new standards, population studies are not the
domain of any one content area. Population studies make use
of the principles used by all social sciences and some
natural and physical sciences. Primarily, however, it is the
geography and science standards that introduce the basic
dynamics of population studies. The standards in these
subjects plus those for civics and government and history
will help students then go on to develop an understanding of
the implications of demographic change and population trends.
Geography. The geography standards recommend that
students "...understand the characteristics, distribution,
and migration of human populations on Earth's surface,"
emphasizing the spatial aspects. Content in the early grades
focuses on the local community, while older students are
expected to analyze global population distribution. For
example, fourth grade students should be able to examine a
map showing the population distribution for their city and
suggest reasons for the patterns they observe. Twelfth grade
students are expected to be able to evaluate how a country's
cultural characteristics may influence its population policy.
The population components of the geography standards
help students grasp the complexity of contemporary and
historical global issues. In order for students to assess the
effect of population growth on climate change and food supply
in Africa, for example, they must "...understand how human
actions modify the environment." As they proceed to examine
how the resulting change in land use is related to the
increase of urbanized areas in Africa during the past 20
years they must recognize "...how physical systems affect
human systems" and "...the changes that occur in the meaning,
use, distribution, and importance of resources."
Science. The science standards present the study of
human populations within the context of populations of other
organisms in the ecosystems. The science standards recommend
that students understand that "populations grow or decline
through the combined effects of births, deaths, and in
countries through emigration and immigration." The concept of
interdependence among populations, resources, and
environments is also developed. As a learning activity for
these concepts, middle school students might create a food
web, showing humans as consumers and their relationship with
other consumers, producers, and decomposers in the ecosystem.
Or, a high school science class might test a hypothesis about
the earth's human carrying capacity by conducting research on
human consumption patterns and available and projected
natural resources.
History and civics. The emphasis on understanding
diversity makes population composition an important concept
in the social sciences. The civics and government content
standards call for students to understand diversity in
American society. Students are expected to "explain the
impact on American politics, both historically and at
present, of the racial, religious, socioeconomic, regional,
ethnic, and linguistic diversity..." A corresponding
objective in the U.S. history standards calls for students to
analyze "...how changing immigration patterns have affected
religious diversity." U.S. history standards call for
students to understand how population growth and changes in
population composition have shaped U.S. society and continue
to affect the social setting in which policies are created.
Standards for the study of world history call for
students to understand "...how population explosion and
environmental change have altered conditions of life around
the world" in this century. For example, high school students
might examine population growth in China, assess the effect
of the "one-child" policy, and show the implications for
economic development.
While not reviewed here, the math and economics standards
also make a positive contribution to population studies. The
math standards reflect a growing emphasis on data and
statistics in the precollegiate math curriculum.
Different standards?
States and professional organizations are holding
workshops and in-service training on the new curriculum
standards. But now there are indications that Congress may be
viewing the standards effort itself by a different standard.
Conservative voices in Congress, such as Representative
Lindsey Graham (R-SC), have raised concerns that national
standards could usurp authority from state and local
governments. Also, the "opportunity to learn" standards,
aimed at ensuring equal access to high quality educational
resources for the educationally disadvantaged, are being
questioned as unfunded mandates. In May, the House of
Representatives passed a bill (HR 1045) that would eliminate
the National Education Standards and Improvement Council
(NESIC)_a move that supporters hoped would placate the
program's critics. As of early June, however, the House
budget bill for FY1996 planned to eliminate all funding for
Goals 2000, while the Senate remained silent on the subject.
The Goals 2000 program, along with the federal role in
education more generally, seems to have become part of the
struggle over spending priorities between the President and
Congress.
References
Geography Education Standards Project, Geography for Life:
National Geography Standards 1994 (Washington, DC: National
Geographic Research and Exploration, 1994).
Center for Civic Education, National Standards for Civics and
Government (Calabasas, CA: Center for Civic Education, 1994).
National Research Council, National Science Education
Standards (Draft) (Washington, DC: National Academy Press,
1994).
National Center for History in the Schools, National
Standards for United States History (Los Angeles, CA: UCLA,
1994).
National Center for History in the Schools, National
Standards for World History (Los Angeles: UCLA, 1994).
*****
Mexico
By Stefanie Durbin
Population: 93.7 million
Land area: 736,950 sq. miles
Births: 27 per 1,000
Deaths: 5 per 1,000
Infant deaths: 34 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 2.2 percent
Total fertility: 3.1 births per woman
Life expectancy: 70 male/76 female
Capital city: Mexico City
Economically, politically, and environmentally, Mexico
is a country in crisis. Its population has more than tripled
since 1950. At its current rate of natural increase, the
population would double again in 34 years.
Almost three times the size of Texas, Mexico is endowed
with rich natural resources, including petroleum, gold,
silver, lead, and copper. Its agricultural yields include
corn, cotton, wheat, coffee, and sugar cane. The service
sector employs the largest segment_a third_of the population.
More than a quarter of Mexicans work in agriculture,
forestry, hunting, and fishing; the remainder work in
commerce, manufacturing, and construction. Mexico's people
are 60 percent Mestizo (Indian- Spanish), 30 percent
Amerindian, and 10 percent Caucasian or other heritage.
Geographically, Mexico straddles the developing
countries of Guatemala and Belize to its south and prosperous
United States to its north. Similarly, Mexico was, until
December 1994, straddling the razor's edge of economic
prosperity. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA),
which became law in Canada, the United States, and Mexico on
January 1, 1994, seemed to promise increasing economic
opportunity with the United States and Canada. This, coupled
with tight monetary policies, privatization of businesses,
and bilateral free trade agreements with its Latin American
neighbors, appeared to signal improvement for Mexico's
economy.
However, the cumulative effects of high-level
assassinations, kidnappings, and political upheaval induced
nervous foreign investors to pull investments from Mexico
last December. The government was forced to devalue the peso,
triggering an economic crash.
The Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, has ruled
Mexico for 66 years, despite accusations of rigged elections
and rampant corruption. Recent murders involving high-level
politicians have engendered pessimism about the prospects for
democracy. President Ernesto Zedillo has encountered
unprecedented public criticism for his handling of the
economic crisis and his inability to check corruption and
violence in the PRI.
Industry_much of it foreign owned_has taken a toll on
Mexico's environment even as it has expanded employment
opportunities. Lax environmental laws and special easements
for "maquiladoras," or foreign-owned industrial plants, have
generated extensive pollution from industrial effluent. In
addition, air pollution in Mexico City, much of it from auto
emissions, is said to be the equivalent of smoking two packs
of cigarettes a day.
Mexico maintains one of the most well-developed family
planning programs in the world. The National Population
Council, or CONAPO, has been financially and politically
supported by Mexican leaders since its establishment in 1974.
CONAPO conducts demographic research, program and policy
analysis; disseminates information; and provides technical
assistance.
The total fertility rate (TFR), or average number of
children born to a woman in her lifetime, plummeted from an
average of 5.9 children per woman in 1976, to 3.8 in 1987, to
slightly more than 3 in 1995. The government wants to see
this number continue to shrink, but TFR decrease has since
slowed. According to a 1987 DHS survey, use of modern family
planning methods is prevalent among 45 percent of married
women, while 8 percent use traditional methods.
AIDS has hit Mexico hard: with 18,353 cases from 1983 to
1994, it ranks third, after the United States and Brazil, in
the number of AIDS cases in the Americas. Some estimates
place the number at more than 27,000, with discrepancies
blamed on underreporting and late reporting.
*****
News and Reources
PRB updates population primer
Back by popular demand! PRB has updated its user-
friendly population mini-text: "Population: A Lively
Introduction," by Joseph McFalls. Popular with teachers and
students, this Population Bulletin provides an overview of
the basic forces of demographic change and the measures used
to assess them. ["Population: A Lively Introduction," by
Joseph A. McFalls, Jr., Population Bulletin 46 (2), 1995
edition.]
DemoGraphics `94: Software package
DemoGraphics `94 is a computer-based demographic
reference system and tool for population education designed
to "enable students to see patterns with the eye and the
mind." From the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, the software produces a wide
variety of graphics, including detailed population maps and
striking time-series animations (1950 through 2050) of
population pyramids and other graphics.
The software runs on Microsoft Windows, version 3.1 or
later, but the mapping features require a 486/66 Mhz or
Pentium PC with a fast hard disk and a 256-color video board.
Included in the package are DemoGraphics `94 setup diskettes
and a manual. [DemoGraphics `94 for Microsoft Windows. Cost:
$35.00. For more information, contact: Gerhard K. Heilig,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
A-236 Laxenburg, Austria. Phone: 011-43-2236-807-551; fax:
011-43-2236-71313.
Videos on: Urbanization
Urban ecology. By comparing Mexico City, Barcelona, and
Abidjan_capital of the Cote d'Ivoire_Urban Ecology
effectively portrays how population growth affects urban
planning, urban sprawl, and poverty. The film touches on the
multiplying issues that cities face_such as housing scarcity,
unemployment, waste disposal, and the inadequacy of
institutions to deal with these problems. [Urban Ecology,
1990. High school to college. 24 minutes, color. $98.95.
Distributed by Films for the Humanities & Sciences, Inc., Box
2053, Princeton, NJ 08543-2053, 800-257-5126.]
Urban growth. The culminating program of a video series
on the Industrial Revolution, this segment examines how
industrialization led to urbanization in England. The viewer
gains a feel for life in a 19th century British city and a
sense of the systems that supported it. [The Growth of Towns
and Cities, 1993. Middle to high school. 20 minutes. $129.
Distributed by Films for the Humanities & Sciences, Inc., Box
2053, Princeton, NJ 08543-2053, 800-257-5126.]
A/V library at PRB closes, some rentals to continue
PRB officially closed its population-environment
Audiovisual Library on June 30, 1995. However, PRB will
continue to rent a selected list of population or
historically important films and videos that are unavailable
from other sources, and review A/V resources in Population
Today. For more information, see the flyer that accompanies
this issue or contact Kimberly Crews at PRB, 202-939-5405.
Counting on people
Counting on People: Elementary Population and Environmental
Activities helps young people in grades 1-6 to understand
their connections to other people, all living things, and the
world that sustains them. The 150-page, spiral-bound activity
book produced by Zero Population Growth contains a teacher's
guide. [Cost: $19.95 plus $3.00 shipping and handling.
Contact: ZPG Population Education Program, 1400 16th Street
NW, Suite 320, Washington, DC 20036, 202-332-2200.]
New books
How Schools Shortchange Girls: A Study of Major Findings
on Girls and Education. The American Association of
University Women Educational Foundation and the Wellesley
College Center for Research on Women. Annapolis, MD: AAUEF
and NEA, 1992. 116 pages. $16.95. ISBN 0-8106-2501-6.
Families in Focus: New Perspectives on Mothers, Fathers, and
Children. J. Bruce et al. New York: The Population Council,
1995. 116 pages. ISBN: 0-87834- 084-X.