UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
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This newsletter is being made available by the Population Information
Network (POPIN) of the United Nations Population Division/DESIPA and the
Population Reference Bureau, with funding from the Andrew W. Mellon
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Population Today
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
June/July 1996, Vol 24, No. 6/7
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy of
Population Today have not been included here. For a complete
copy of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population Reference
Bureau,1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C.
20009.
In this issue: ** World Population Expected to Reach 6
Billion in Early 1999 ** Do Working Moms Anticipate the
Trade-Offs? ** Job Gains Bypass Low-skilled Atlantans **
Concentrating Poverty Breeds Violence ** Spotlight on
Indonesia **
*****
World Population Expected to Reach 6 Billion in Early 1999
By Carl Haub
This year's edition of the annual World Population Data
Sheet shows a world population of 5,771,000,000 for July 1,
1996. PRB estimates that global population is growing about
1.52 percent per year, down slightly from 1.55 percent, last
year's estimate.
In absolute terms, the annual addition to world
population remains at 87,668,000 (see PRB's population
"clock," page 2). If that number remains constant, the "day of
6 billion" should come about March 1999.
Continued birth rate decline in the newly independent
states
Economic problems in Eastern Europe and the former USSR
and pessimism about the future continue to depress birth rates
throughout that region. Latvia has set a modern-day record
with a rate of natural decrease (birth rate minus death rate)
of -0.7 percent, an astoundingly low negative value. At least
10 countries in Eastern Europe now show negative rates of
natural increase.
Declines in life expectancy also contribute to these low
rates. In Russia, life expectancy at birth, already noted for
its rapid decline after the breakup of the former USSR, fell
still further. In 1994, life expectancy dropped to 57.5 years
for males and 71.1 for females from 1989 levels of 64.4 years
for males and 74.5 years for females. Life expectancy for
Russian males in 1994 equals that in the United States in
1925.
AIDS slows population growth in Africa
As more data on the effects of the spread of AIDS in
Africa become available, projections of the continent's future
population continue to be revised downward. Population
projections do not factor in the impact of potentially
catastrophic events such as famines, plagues, war, or natural
disasters because they are unpredictable. But with AIDS,
demographers are addressing a new phenomenon: a chronic,
communicable disease with a long-term impact on population
growth.
The impact of AIDS has created some debate among
researchers. New analyses by the International Programs Center
of the U.S. Bureau of the Census based on new AIDS data and
their assessment of the likely spread of the pandemic show
that the most seriously affected countries of Africa may
experience a much greater rise in mortality than previously
thought. This could lead to lower population projections for
17 African countries and five other countries outside the
region. Because of uncertainties about the course of the AIDS
pandemic, future editions of PRB's Data Sheet will track this
public health trend and monitor its effects on future
population growth.
World highs and lows
The world's lowest fertility continues to be found in
southern Europe. Italy and Spain are tied with a total
fertility rate of only 1.2 births per woman on average.
Fertility rates in Greece and Portugal are just above those
two countries.
Japan's infant mortality rate of 4.2 infant deaths per
1,000 live births is the lowest in the world, although the
city-state of Singapore recorded an infant death rate of 4.0
in 1995. Japan remained the unquestioned leader of life
expectancy at birth, 76.6 years for males and a record 83.0
years for females.
PRB's Data Sheet lists basic demographic data for 198
countries, although 39 smaller countries are actually included
in all totals and regional averages. Countries that are either
United Nations members or have populations of 150,000 or more
are printed in the Data Sheet. Overall, countries range in
population size from China's 1.2 billion to tiny Pitcairn
Island's 66.
This year's Data Sheet features one new variable: data
on school enrollment at the secondary level for males and
females. The inclusion of this new item provides a benchmark
to assess the progress countries are making in meeting the
goals of the International Conference on Population and
Development's (ICPD) Programme of Action. This measure is
particularly important in assessing the status of women and,
to demographers, an important variable that often influences
national birth rates. Women with more education are less
likely to marry or give birth at a young age than less
educated women. More educated women also tend to have fewer
children. Secondary education delays childbearing by raising
the age of marriage, exposing young women to new values and
ideas, and removing girls from the domestic environment, where
attitudes supporting early marriage and childbearing are
strongest.
PRB's 1996 World Population Data Sheet is available for $3.50
each plus $1.00 shipping and handling. Data are available on
diskette in Lotus, Excel, or ASCII format. Price: $12.50.
*****
Do Working Moms Anticipate the Trade-Offs?
By Paola Scommegna
Juggling jobs and babies is a fact of life for half of
all new mothers in the United States. In 1990, 50 percent of
women with one-month-old babies had jobs, although only about
10 percent had actually returned to work one month after
giving birth. But by the time their infants were three months
old, one of every three mothers was back on the job.
Data from a recent study on infant feeding practices
highlights the conflicts new mothers face trying to balance
the competing demands of work and new babies.
The study asked pregnant, employed women about their
plans to return to work within a year after their babies were
born. Researchers found that more than one-third of the women
who had intended to return to work did not.
"We were surprised to find a big difference between what
women expected to do and what they actually did after their
babies were born," explained Leslie Whittington, an
agricultural and resource economist at the University of
Maryland.
Whittington and colleagues at the University of Maryland
and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) presented
their findings at the May 1996 Population Association of
America meetings. Their analysis focused on breastfeeding
because its time-consuming nature and physical demands
conflict with the requirements of most paying jobs.
They found no link between the number of weeks of
maternity leave that pregnant, employed women said they
expected to take and the length of time they expected to
breastfeed their infants.
"Before giving birth, mothers in our study did not
explicitly consider breastfeeding and market work to be in
conflict," Whittington said. "After the child was born, the
mothers clearly found work and breastfeeding made competing
demands on their time."
When the researchers surveyed the women during the first
year following childbirth, they found that the longer the new
mothers actually delayed returning to work, the longer they
breastfed their babies.
The researchers used data from the FDA's Infant Feeding
Practices Study, a national survey. They analyzed the
responses of 1,100 employed, pregnant women planning to return
to work in the year following childbirth. The group included
women who worked either full- or part-time. They were
disproportionately white and had higher-than- average
household incomes.
Three months after delivery, about half the mothers had
returned to work. Of those who had returned to work, 42
percent were working less than full-time.
The researchers found that the number of daily
breastmilk feedings decreased as the number of weekly work
hours increased. On average, an infant whose mother worked 40
hours weekly, for example, received three- and-one-half fewer
daily breastmilk feedings (including expressed milk) than an
infant whose mother who was not working outside the home.
"Clearly, women at work are less available for
breastfeeding than mothers at home with their infants," said
Whittington. "Working women can express breastmilk for later
consumption, but job sites often do not provide suitable
locations or adequate time during the day to express milk."
Also, the fatigue experienced by all new parents is
exacerbated if the mother works, which may interfere with her
milk production, she noted.
The public health community urges mothers to breastfeed
their infants for four to six months, but more than one-third
of U.S. mothers of three-month-olds are actively employed and
may encounter difficulties meeting this standard, she argued.
To meet this health goal, the demands of breastfeeding
must be better accommodated through such policies as "longer
or compensated leave, flexible or part-time schedules, and
adequate facilities for expressing and storing milk," she
said.
Slightly more than half of new mothers in the United
States breastfed their babies in 1993. That figure represents
a drop from a high of 62 percent in the early 1980s.
*****
Job Gains Bypass Low-skilled Atlantan
By Paola Scommegna
With the media spotlight on Atlanta_host of this
summer's Olympic Games_the economic success of this southern
"boom town" is well known. Atlanta generated more jobs in the
last 20 years than virtually any other American city.
But there is another side of the story. Atlanta's rapid
economic growth during the 1980s did not get passed on to its
poor residents. The volume of net in-migrants from other
states overwhelmed the job market, creating serious problems,
particularly for minorities and youth, according to a study
presented by David Sawicki, a professor of city planning at
Georgia Tech, at the May 1996 Population Association of
America meetings.
"The rising tide did not lift all boats," he said. "For
every two low-skilled natives not working, a new migrant who
was also a high school dropout entered the area. Young native
blacks not in the work force were lost in the crowd of new
competitors for a large but finite number of jobs."
The labor force participation rate for native black
males declined somewhat from 60 to 56 percent between 1970 and
1995, the years that Atlanta's economy grew rapidly.
Using census data, Sawicki and Mitch Moody, a Georgia
Tech research associate, analyzed the education levels and job
status of Atlanta natives and migrants between 1985 and 1990.
They found that an unprecedented number of low-skilled and
less-educated workers moved in and out of the Atlanta metro
area during the five-year period.
"Long-distance moves were not solely concentrated among
those who were better educated and in higher-skilled
occupations; the market for even low-skilled laborers has
become a national market," he said.
Between 1985 and 1990, Atlanta added a net of 91,000
low-skilled in-migrants. A large number (20,000) of the low-
skilled migrants came from Florida and Texas. Alabama, New
York, North Carolina, and California contributed another
20,000.
International immigration also had an impact on Atlanta
during the period, adding about 43,000 immigrants. Of the
immigrants who reported an occupation, 48 percent reported a
low-skilled job.
Overall, Atlanta natives were more likely than in-
migrants to be out of the labor force (either unemployed or
"discouraged workers," those workers interested in employment
but not actively seeking a job)_6.5 percent for natives
compared to 4.8 percent for migrants. Of all groups, native-
born black Atlantans were the most severely affected_11.6
percent out of the labor force. Young black Atlantans (ages
16-30) had the highest rate, 18 percent.
"Perhaps employers perceive migrants as better
educated, more experienced, and more ambitious or perhaps they
live closer to the jobs in the first place," said Sawicki.
Many of the in-migrants moved for economic reasons, he
noted, and they might be "simply more motivated to get the job
in the first place." Another possibility is racial
discrimination in housing or hiring.
Job growth in the metro area was concentrated in the
suburbs north of downtown (see figure). The job losses mainly
occurred in the inner city and the south (predominantly
African American) side of the metro area.
"A rapidly growing metropolitan area like Atlanta may be
facing far more serious employment problems than areas that
are exporting their low-skilled workers."
Transferring the oversight of social programs including
welfare and job training from the federal government to states
and localities, assuming that local labor markets face
comparable situations and providing similar per capita
resources could prove disastrous, he said.
*****
Concentrating Poverty Breeds Violence
By Douglas S. Massey
[In his presidential address at the May 1996 annual
meetings of the Population Association of America, Douglas
Massey, a demography professor at the University of
Pennsylvania, documents the growing geographic concentrations
of affluence and poverty worldwide.
He argues that this trend--the result of urbanization,
rising income inequality, and increasing class segregation--
contributes to a deeply divided and increasingly violent
social world. The following is an excerpt from "Into the Age
of Extremes: Concentrated Affluence and Poverty in the 21st
Century;" the full text will be published in an upcoming issue
of Demography.]
Between 1970 and 1990, U.S. poverty became more
urbanized and more concentrated in central cities. The
percentage of poor people who lived in central cities stood at
34 percent in 1970, but rose to 39 percent in 1980 and 43
percent in 1990. Meanwhile, the percentage of the poor living
in suburbs, after rising during the 1970s, fell slightly (to
29 percent) during the 1980s.
At the same time that American poverty was becoming
concentrated within central cities, it was also concentrating
in already-poor neighborhoods. Demographer John Kasarda
computed the share of poor persons living in poor
neighborhoods (poverty rates of 20 to 40 percent) and very
poor neighborhoods (poverty rates above 40 percent). From 1970
to 1990, the percentage of central-city poor living in poor
neighborhoods increased from 38 to 41 percent. Meanwhile, the
share living in very poor neighborhoods grew markedly, from 17
percent to 28 percent. As of 1990, more than two-thirds of
all the central-city poor lived in a poor or very poor
neighborhood.
. . . No consequence of concentrated poverty is as
destructive as the proliferation of crime and violence.
Criminal behavior is strongly associated with income
deprivation, and the geographic concentration of poverty will
thus yield a concentration of criminal violence in poor
neighborhoods. Estimates that I have developed for
Philadelphia show that every point increase in the
neighborhood poverty rate raises the major crime rate by 0.8
points. Using data from Columbus, Ohio, demographers Lauren
Krivo and Ruth Peterson show that moving from a neighborhood
where the poverty rate is under 20 percent to one where it is
over 40 percent raises the rate of violent crime more than
threefold, from around 7 per 1,000 to 23 per 1,000.
How will the poor adapt to an environment where violence
is endemic and the risk of victimization great? At the
individual level, a logical adaptation is to become violent
oneself. Elijah Anderson, a sociologist at the University of
Pennsylvania, has discovered through his enthnographic
fieldwork that by adopting a threatening demeanor, cultivating
a reputation for the use of force, and backing up that
reputation with selective violence, one can deter potential
criminals and increase the odds of survival. In a social
world characterized by endemic violence, an obsessive concern
with respect becomes a viable adaptive strategy.
Given the ongoing concentration of violence, some poor
people are sure to adopt more violent attitudes as survival
strategies. As more people resort to violence for self-
preservation, the average level of violence within poor
neighborhoods will rise, leading others to adopt still more
violent behavior. As the average level of violence rises over
time, more people adopt increasingly violent strategies to
protect themselves from the growing threat of victimization,
ultimately producing a self- perpetuating upward spiral of
violence.
The fundamental need to adapt to conditions of endemic
violence that are structurally embedded lead to the emergence
of a "code of the streets" that encourages and promotes the
use of force. Asking residents of poor neighborhoods to
choose a less violent path or to "just say no" to the
temptation of violence is absurd, given the threatening
character of the ecological niche in which they live. To
survive in such areas, one must learn, and to a significant
extent, internalize, the code of violence described by
Anderson, and in this way, aggression is passed from person to
person in a self-feeding, escalating fashion.
Recent brain research suggests that repeated exposure to
high levels of danger and physical violence wire emotional
predispositions to rage and violence directly into the brain
and make them an organic part of a person's makeup. Research
has shown that perceptions of danger are channeled directly to
a small mass of neural cells known as the amygdala. The
amygdala is capable of generating an emotional response that
triggers aggressive, violent behavior without passing through
the neocortex, the center of rational thought.
By dramatically increasing the poor's exposure to
violence from a very early age, the increasing concentration
of poor people in impoverished neighborhoods will maximize the
number of people with hair- trigger tempers and elevated
predispositions to violence. These emotional reactions will
not be easily turned on and off rationally. People who grow
up in areas of concentrated poverty and violence will
experience profound spillover effects in other areas of life,
raising the odds that disagreements with bosses, spouses, and
children will turn violent, and undermining the chances of
successful employment, marriage and childrearing.
*****
Indonesia
By Jeanne Noble
Population mid-1996: 201.4 million
Land area: 705,190 square miles
Births: 24 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 8 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 66 per 1,00 live births
Natural increase: 1.6 percent per year
Total fertility: 2.9 births per woman
Life expectancy: 61(male)/65(female)
Capital: Jakarta
The Republic of Indonesia, lying along the equator
between the Asian mainland and Australia, consists of 17,000
islands of which only 6,000 are inhabited. As the fourth most
populous country in the world, Indonesia is the largest Muslim
nation. Approximately 10 percent of Indonesians are
Christians, Hindus, and Buddhists. Indonesia's hundreds of
ethnic groups, each speaking their own language, has led to
the national motto "unity in diversity."
In 1965, 20 years after Indonesia declared its
independence from the Netherlands, an army coup by leftist
officials was put down by General Suharto. Suharto outlawed
the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) and ordered a crackdown
that resulted in the deaths of 500,000 PKI members. Suharto
became acting president and has remained in power since then.
Nearly 80 percent of Indonesia's total population
resides on the three islands of Java, Madura, and Sumatra. The
population is unevenly distributed at the provincial level as
well, with a population density around Jakarta of 12,500
persons per square kilometer but only 678 persons per square
kilometer in East Java.
The government has supported family planning services
for over two decades. Results from the 1994 Indonesia
Demographic and Health Survey indicate that contraceptive use
continues to rise and the birth rate to decline. Between 1985
and 1994, Indonesia's total fertility rate (the number of
lifetime children a woman would have given current fertility
rates) declined by 30 percent, from 4.1 to 2.9. Currently, 52
percent of married women of reproductive age use a modern
contraceptive method, a figure that would rise to 63 percent
if all women who wanted to space or limit births were using
contraception.
Oral and injectable contraceptives are the most widely
used methods, followed by the IUD (19 percent of all users)
and Norplant contraceptive implants (9 percent). Since its
approval by the Indonesian Ministry of Health in 1986,
Norplant use has expanded rapidly. Estimates place the
cumulative number of insertions at more than 3 million, making
Indonesia's program the largest introduction of Norplant in
the world.
Maternal mortality remains high in Indonesia, with
approximately 390 pregnancy-related deaths for every 100,000
live births. This compares with a rate of 20 in neighboring
Malaysia and 181 in the Philippines. A majority of the
maternal deaths in Indonesia could be prevented with adequate
prenatal care and medical assistance during delivery.
Presently, three out of four births take place at home and 60
percent are assisted by a traditional birth attendant rather
than a doctor (3 percent) or trained midwife (34 percent).
To achieve the goal of "a healthy population by the year
2000," the government has focused on reducing high levels of
infant and child mortality. Infant mortality rates have
declined over the past 15 years to about 66 deaths per 1,000
live births. This compares with rates of 34 per 1,000 in the
Philippines, 35 in Thailand, and 11 in Malaysia.
Improvements are also evident in school enrollments. In
1980, only 35 percent of young men and 23 percent of young
women were enrolled in secondary school. By 1992, enrollment
ratios had risen to 48 and 39 percent, respectively.
Although Indonesia remains a poor country in most
respects_and has a per capita GNP of only US$730_rising levels
of education, combined with falling fertility, may help
accelerate socioeconomic development in the coming century.
*****
Water wars
The wars of the next century will be fought over water,
a World Bank official predicts. That grim forecast was based
on a Bank study that found 40 percent of the world's
population lives in 80 countries already suffering from water
shortages that could cripple their agriculture or industry and
undermine the health of their citizens. According to the
study, the three major trends putting pressure on Earth's
water supply are global population growth, water supply
contamination, and the cost of developing new or more
efficient water systems. The study estimates that contaminated
water could be killing at least 10 million people annually, in
addition to causing huge economic losses. The World Bank
estimates that US$600 billion must be spent on water-related
investments over the next 10 years, $60 billion of which must
come from international funds to developing countries.
For a copy of Toward Sustainable Management of Water
Resources, contact the World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW,
Washington, DC 20433; (202) 477-1234; fax (202) 477-6391.
Population-ecosystem video
World War III: The Population Explosion and Our Planet.
Produced by a PBS affiliate, this program examines the impact
of population growth on the world and its ecosystems. World
War III documents population growth in Kenya, India, China,
and the United States as well as the government policies,
cultural characteristics, and social and economic trends that
have contributed to population growth and change in these
countries. Provocative interviews with environmentalists
clarify population growth's effects on animal populations and
ecosystems. [World War III: The Population Explosion and Our
Planet, 1995. High school to adult. 50 minutes, color. $89.
Distributed by The Video Project, 5332 College Avenue, Suite
101, Oakland, CA 94618, 1-800-4-PLANET; e-mail
videoproject@igc.apc.org.]
Gaza's population explosion
The Gaza Strip has the world's highest fertility rate,
an average lifetime fertility rate of 8.1 children per woman.
At current rates, its population of 934,000 will double in
only 15 years, but because of geopolitical realities will have
no room to expand. "Gaza eventually will explode," said the
head of the Palestine Bureau of Statistics in a February press
release. "There will be no job opportunities, no sufficient
services, a severe housing crisis, and all other kinds of
problems."
Palestine officials have been wary of promoting family
planning because some Muslims believe it violates Islamic
principles. In addition, for many years Yasser Arafat
encouraged high birth rates to compete in the demographic war
against Israel.
Source: Population News, The Colorado Population
Coalition, P.O. Box 6201, Denver, CO 80206.
World Food Day teleconference
How grassroots organizations can help assure food
security for poor communities around the world will be the
focus of the 1996 World Food Day teleconference, "People
Power: A Harvest of Hope." The teleconference, to be
videotaped on October 16, 1996, will be available worldwide.
It is estimated that there are at least 800 million
hungry people in the world, but even the most marginalized
peoples in many less developed countries have united to form
successful farm coops, credit unions, voluntary work
associations, small enterprises, joint marketing systems, and
other cooperative arrangements to augment their diets.
A Teleconference Study/Action Packet will be distributed
to all participating teleconference sites. Reproducible copies
of the packet will be available early this summer.
The Teleconference is one of many international events
leading up to the United Nations World Food Summit in Rome, to
be held November 13-17, 1996.
For more information, contact Patricia Young, national
coordinator, U.S. National Committee for World Food Day, 1001
22nd Street, NW, Washington, DC 20437; (202) 653-2404; fax
(202) 653-5760.