UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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This document is being made available by the Population Information
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POPULATION TODAY
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
Vol. 23, No. 6, June 1995
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy
of Population Today have not been included here. For a
complete copy of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population
Reference Bureau,1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520,
Washington, D.C. 20009.
In this issue: ** Federal Data System Is Sharing in Era's
Uncertainty ** PAA Convention Report ** Spotlight on
Georgia (Former Soviet Republic) ** Family Privacy Act
Worries Researchers
Federal Data System Is Sharing in Era's Uncertainty
By Susan Kalish
With major changes being debated in government programs,
the federal data system faces a great deal of uncertainty.
In early May, the House of Representatives and Senate
put forth budget resolutions, each proposing extensive
cutbacks in overall federal spending. The House resolution
aimed to cut spending by $1.04 trillion by 2002 and eliminate
three cabinet-level agencies: the Department of Education,
the Department of Energy, and the Department of Commerce. The
Senate plan called for cuts over the same period of $961
billion and eliminating the Office of Personnel Management
and the Department of Commerce.
Both House and Senate plans recognize the constitutional
mandate to maintain the decennial census, but it is not yet
known where the Census Bureau, which is currently a part of
the Department of Commerce, would find itself within the
federal system if the Commerce Department was eliminated.
There is talk in Congress of combining the Census Bureau and
the Bureau of Economic Analysis into a new Department of
Federal Statistics.
Congress is also moving to send some federal
programs_such as the food stamp, school lunch, and welfare
programs_back to the states in the form of block grants.
Block grants would set a cap on the total federal funds that
would flow into each state, but might have few or no federal
requirements for distribution within a state. The new
paradigm of devolution could possibly create more demand for
demographers at the state level. "At this point, there is a
lot of variation from state to state in their ability to
handle tasks like local-level population estimates,"
commented Stephen Tordella of Decision Demographics, an
Arlington, Virginia-based applied demography company. "Some
just don't have the resources or the staff."
Administration proposals
In the meantime, as part of its initiative to "re-invent
government," the Clinton Administration has been considering
how some of the functions of the federal statistical agencies
might be combined. There has been talk of creating a "super
agency" comparable, perhaps, to Statistics Canada. Other
proposals under consideration emphasize data sharing among
federal agencies. In its September 1993 National Performance
Review, the Administration set improving data sharing as one
of its efficiency goals. The Office of Management and Budget
is looking into what kind of legislative change would be
required to enable data sharing while continuing to protect
the privacy of citizens. For example, Title 13 currently
forbids the Census Bureau from sharing any data that has not
been aggregated to the point of becoming anonymous with
anyone outside the bureau, even other federal agencies.
Budget uncertainty creates a generalized sense of
vulnerability among the federal agencies, according to Ed
Spar, executive director of the Council of Professional
Associations on Federal Statistics, a "friends-of"
organization best known by its acronym, COPAFS. COPAFS counts
11 major federal data agencies with combined budgets in FY
1995 of almost $1 billion (see table).
"You just can't tell how any one agency will come out,"
said Spar. However, he emphasized, "statistical agencies are
not_capital `N' NOT_being especially targeted for cutbacks.
We are in the same boat as everyone else." Members of
Congress and administration leaders, said Spar, "absolutely
do care about and understand the value of statistics." For
example, Senator Phil Gramm (R-TX)_who has oversight of the
Census Bureau as chair of the Senate Subcommittee on
Commerce, Justice, State, the Judiciary, and Related
Agencies_commented positively this March on the Census Bureau
and the need for census data.
Census concerns
In the midst of all this flux, the Census Bureau is now
in the process of evaluating the results of its March 1995
Census Tests. The bureau, which typically undergoes
substantial retooling between censuses, is currently testing
several significant methodological changes for the 2000
Census that were recommended by a Congressionally appointed
National Academy of Sciences panel.
Several innovations are being tried out: better address
lists (updated with help from the post office and local
governments, made possible by recent legislation), more
readable census forms, and the mailing of Spanish and English
questionnaires to Hispanic neighborhoods. In the tests, for
the first time, the bureau did a second mailing to
nonresponding households and also made blank "Be Counted"
census forms available in public places (and on request) to
people who did not receive or mislaid them. Improved systems
to catch possible duplication of households made these steps
possible.
Response rates are a critical concern for the upcoming
census, since, in 1990, the mail-back return rate fell to a
low of 74 percent. The low return rate, which caught the
bureau by surprise, drove up costs unexpectedly because in
1990 the back-up system for nonresponse_having enumerators
visit each missing residence, in many cases, multiple
times_was a labor-intensive, costly proposition. The March
tests provided a trial run of a new back-up system for
nonresponse proposed for the 2000 Census: applying
statistical sampling to nonresponding households.
Census officials have high hopes that this combination
of efforts_attempts to maximize response combined with
sampling for nonresponse_will enable the 2000 Census to
maintain high data quality while controlling costs. How the
public, Congress, and the courts will react to the idea of
sampling for nonresponse, however, remains a question mark.
*****
Report from PAA: Demographers Ponder Benefits of Marriage,
Effects of Migration and Immigration, Fertility Declines in
Bangladesh, and More...
Social scientists have an important role to play in the
current debates concerning marriage and family, according to
Linda J. Waite, professor of Sociology of the University of
Chicago. They have a responsibility to "weigh the evidence of
the consequences of social behaviors in the same way that
medical researchers have to weigh the evidence of the effects
of smoking or exercise" and to communicate their views to the
public. In recent years, as growing proportions of never-
married, divorced, and cohabiting adults put a squeeze on the
proportion of people in marriage, policy debates have focused
primarily on the social costs and benefits. Yet, observed
Waite, individuals don't make the decisions that lead to
unwed parenthood, marriage, or divorce for the good of
society. Instead, "they weigh the costs and benefits to
themselves and sometimes to their children."
Waite pulled together evidence from a variety of studies
to piece together a picture of the "benefits to individuals
of the social institution of marriage." Even accounting for
the effect of background factors and the selectivity of more
advantaged people into marriage, she argued, research shows
that married people on average have better health, longer
life, a better sex life, greater wealth, and better outcomes
for their children. Married men have higher incomes, but
white married women have somewhat lower incomes than their
unmarried peers. Waite described marriage as a kind of long-
term "co-insurance" pact between spouses that buffers them
against the stresses of life. Spousal monitoring of health-
related and risk-taking behavior bolsters longevity. Marriage
also provides emotional benefits, including a sense of
meaning, especially for men. The less committed alternative
of cohabitation, she said, seems to extend some of the
benefits of marriage, but not all.
As this overall picture is communicated to the public,
Waite argued, some people will make different choices than
they would otherwise have made, because of their
understanding of the personal consequences. Policymakers
should also be made aware, she said, "of what's at stake when
they pull the policy levers that discourage marriage," such
as the tax penalty for marriage.
Waite made these remarks in the course of her Presidential
Address to the Population Association of America Annual
Meeting, held in San Francisco April 6-8, where social
scientists presented their latest findings on the key
demographic themes of marriage, birth, mortality, and
migration. Here are some other highlights of the conference.
Marriage and cohabitation
An update on cohabitation trends was provided by Larry
Bumpass and James A. Sweet from the University of Wisconsin,
Madison in a session on early findings from the
comprehensive, longitudinal 1992-1994 National Survey of
Families and Households (NSFH2). Cohabitation is close to
becoming a majority experience. Almost half_47 percent_of
people between the ages of 25 and 44 have lived with an
unmarried partner for some period, substantially up from 37
percent in 1987-1988 (see Table 1). Moreover, most cohorts
became less traditional in their attitudes toward marriage
and cohabitation as they aged between the survey rounds. The
proportion of people cohabiting at any one time is
considerably smaller, under 10 percent for most age groups,
but rises to one-fifth of unmarried 25-to-39 year-olds.
Fathers' role
An adolescent's feeling of closeness with a nonresident
father tends to weaken over time, but can be very volatile,
according to Kathleen M. Harris (University of North
Carolina, Chapel Hill) and Frank F. Furstenberg, Jr.
(University of Pennsylvania). Frequency of contact and
strength of attachment to absent fathers is strongly linked
to the receipt of child support. For teens, absence of
contact with fathers is associated with symptoms of
depression, becoming a teen parent, and delinquency.
Analysis of census data shows a changed profile for
single fathers between 1960 and 1990, according to David J.
Eggebeen, Tasha R. Synder, and Wendy D. Manning, Pennsylvania
State University. Single fathers in 1990 were younger, more
likely to be unmarried, and had lower incomes than in the
past. Single fathers are more likely to live with sons than
daughters, and with older than younger children. Most single
fathers in 1990 lived in a household with other adults,
suggesting that, in some cases, the "other unmarried adult"
in the household could be the child's mother.
There is a lot of agreement that absent fathers should
pay more child support, said Elaine Sorenson of The Urban
Institute_but can they? More than half (about 55 percent) of
fathers don't pay any child support. About 40 percent of
these nonpaying fathers had children out of wedlock; 30
percent to 48 percent had low or no income. Although
policymakers could move to increase child support awards and
payments, in about one-third of the cases, this still may not
net much resources for the children because of the low
incomes of the fathers.
Neighborhood change and segregation
Why do whites move out of or avoid neighborhoods where
minorities live? Is it racial prejudice or other factors?
David Harris (Northwestern University) argued that race was
not the determining factor. White "aversion to blacks" is
tempered by other factors he studied, namely the perceived
problems of crime, quality of the schools, neighborhood
deterioration, and income or socioeconomic level of
neighbors. Once all four of these nonracial aspects were
taken into account, race ceased to be important.
Aging
Samuel H. Preston, along with Irma T. Elo, Ira
Rosenwaike, and Mark Hill (all of the University of
Pennsylvania) pounded another nail in the coffin of the
theory of racial "cross-over" in mortality rates. Although
African-American death rates generally are higher than those
of whites, the pattern seems to reverse itself after age 85.
Researchers found both age understatement and age
exaggeration at work. When crrected death rates are used for
African Americans, the apparent "cross-over" in mortality
disappears.
In another study of longevity, Kenneth G. Manton (Duke
University) and James W. Vaupel (Odense University Medical
School) compared the old-age survival probability of U.S.
whites ages 80 to 95 with those of their counterparts in
Europe and Japan, where life expectancies are higher than in
this country. Surprisingly, they found that survival
probability at older ages for U.S. whites is higher than that
of the other countries. One explanation, said Vaupel, could
be that_unlike other U.S. age groups_almost 100 percent of
U.S. elderly are now covered by health insurance, Medicare,
or Medicaid.
Immigration/migration
PAA continued to be a venue for debate over the effects
of immigration on labor conditions and welfare use. Mark
Ellis (University of California, Los Angeles) and Richard
Barff (Dartmouth College) compared immigration and internal
migration in the 1970s and 1980s. They found that when
immigrants enter an area, there is not much evidence of low-
skilled native-born people moving out. However, they did find
that highly educated natives left.
Welfare and wealth transfers
Do immigrant households receive higher welfare benefits
than citizen households? The answer depends on the type of
immigrant, according to Mike Clune and Cindy Peete of the
University of California, Berkeley. They examined the case of
Los Angeles County. Households with citizen heads in 1993
averaged slightly more in AFDC and food stamps than did
immigrant households (see figure). Families with undocumented
heads (of which only citizens are eligible for benefits) that
received welfare got lower benefits (an average of $6,080).
Refugees received strikingly higher levels ($10,444).
Migration of retired people has a major effect on
interstate wealth flows, finds Joshua R. Goldstein
(University of California, Berkeley). The Social Security
system is shifting large amounts of money from regions of the
country with younger age structures, such as California, to
states with older age structures, such as Florida. In 1990,
estimates Goldstein, younger states transferred some $36
billion to older states. California (losing $7.9 billion) and
Texas (losing $4.5 billion) were the most adversely affected.
Florida gained the most ($9.2 billion), with Pennsylvania
following (almost $4 billion). Population aging could push
total net transfers to $60 billion a year by 2020.
"The size of such net losses for state economies dwarfs
the claims that some states, such as California, are now
making on the federal government concerning other issues of
state equity, such as the expenses incurred because of
illegal immigration," says Goldstein.
International data quality
Can we put credence in the remarkably low TFR (total
fertility rate, or average births per women) of 3.4 in the
Bangladesh 1993-1994 DHS? Most panelists were inclined to say
yes at a session on the quality of Demographic and Health
Survey Data. R. Bairagi of Bangladesh's International Centre
for Diarrhoeal Disease Research reported that very similar
results were found in a comparable survey in Matlab.
Shea Rutstein of Macro International commented that
biases exist in these surveys because interviewers may date
children's births beyond five years to avoid asking lengthy
health questions required for young children.
Mortality in former USSR
Current demographic trends could affect labor supply in
the former USSR, according to W. Ward Kingkade and John E.
Dunlop (U.S. Bureau of the Census). Continued low fertility
would produce "upside-down" population pyramids and result in
labor shortages. However, Barbara Anderson (University of
Michigan) and Brian D. Silver (Michigan State University)
warned that, while data are relatively good in many European
republics, poor data quality clouds analysis in the Central
Asian republics. Kingkade and Dunlop made the point that
infant mortality data for Tajikistan appear to be suspect.
Carl Haub (Population Reference Bureau) presented the most
recent data available for the former Soviet republics and
discussed how current trends would play out in the future age
structure of the population. Recently returned from a two-
week World Bank mission to Belarus, Haub presented fertility
data from that country, noting that fear about radioactivity
from the Chernobyl disaster is frequently cited by Belarus
women as a reason for delaying childbearing.
Among African women
What do African women say about family planning when
they talk among themselves? This was the subject of two
papers, one by Pierre Ngom (University of Pennsylvania) on
Senegal, and the other on Kenya by Susan Watkins (University
of Pennsylvania), N. Rutenburg (Futures Group), and S. Green
(University of Pennsylvania). Ngom concluded that diffusion
of information about family planning through informal
networks does not necessarily lead to increased acceptance of
contraception. Similarly, Watkins found that women in Kenya
use frequent informal discussions as a means to weigh the
costs and benefits of family planning. Women obtain technical
information from family planning clinics, but personal
decisions concerning contraceptive use generally result from
long discussions with peers and evaluation of personal
circumstances.
USAID's new indicators/significance of ICPD
A key theme of the Program of Action, agreed to at the
International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD)
in Cairo last September, was that more attention should be
paid to the full range of reproductive health services,
rather than contraceptive use alone. A session led by Peter
Donaldson of the Population Reference Bureau reviewed the
philosophical issues and the practical problems of
introducing new services and evaluating their impact.
USAID is supporting research aimed at developing a
series of indicators to evaluate reproductive health
programs, according to Elizabeth McGuire, director of
population at USAID. Jane Bertrand (Tulane University) and
Krista Stewart (USAID) described progress in designing
indicators in the areas of safe pregnancy, breastfeeding,
women's nutrition, and others. Donald Lauro (John Snow, Inc.)
discussed the use of these indicators in developing country
family planning programs.
*****
Georgia (Former Soviet Republic)
Population: 5.4 million
Land area: 69,700 sq. km
Births: 12 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 10 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 18 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 0.2 percent per year
Total fertility: 1.5 births per woman
Life expectancy: 76(female)/69(male)
Capital city: Tbilisi
By Jessica Teisch
High mountains, fertile valleys, ethnic strife, and a
distressed economy characterize Georgia. Bordered by Turkey
to the south, Russia to the north, and the Black Sea to the
west, the republic of Georgia is divided by the Suram
mountain range, which runs from north to south between the
Greater and Lesser Caucasus mountains. To the west of the
Surams lie the subtropical Rion plains; to the east lies the
more mountainous Kura basin, with cold winters and hot, dry
summers. Georgia is approximately the size of South Carolina.
After the Russian Empire collapsed in 1917, Georgia was
established as an independent state, but fell under Bolshevik
rule in 1921. When the USSR crumbled in December 1991,
Georgia again achieved independence. Edward Shevardnadze, the
former Soviet foreign minister, returned to Georgia as
chairman of the State Council, the supreme legislative and
executive body. Georgia joined the Commonwealth of
Independent States on December 3, 1993.
The political instability following Georgia's
independence in 1991 severely crippled its economy. By 1993
it was operating at only 20 percent of its capacity. As a
member of the USSR, Georgia had experienced a relatively high
standard of living. Since the breakup, however, the growth
rate of the GDP fell by more than one-third in inflation-
adjusted terms. In 1993, inflation was 40 percent per month,
with unofficial estimates of unemployment rising to 20
percent. These trends reflected both price liberalization and
the transformation of a rigid, centrally planned economy into
a market economy.
Agriculture accounts for 41 percent of GDP and supplies
almost all of the former USSR with citrus fruits and tea. The
country, which imports 80 percent of its energy needs,
including natural gas and coal, suffers from an acute energy
crisis in part exacerbated by organized crime and sabotage.
Economic relations with other countries of the former USSR
are weak.
Georgia has experienced interethnic strife in Abkhazian
and South Ossetian enclaves, where the inhabitants of
Georgia's two autonomous republics, Abkhazia (in the
southwest, bordering Turkey and the Black Sea) and Ajara (in
the mountains of north-central Georgia), have fought long for
secession. In 1989, 20 people demonstrating in support of
independence and against Abkhazian secessionism were killed
in Tbilisi. Fighting in Abkhazia, whose declaration of
independence in 1990 was pronounced invalid by the Georgian
government, has produced about 100,000 refugees. United
Nations cease-fire agreements have been violated.
Much of this political and cultural conflict stems from
the various ethnic and religious divisions. The population is
70 percent Georgian, 8 percent Armenian, 6 percent Russian,
and 6 percent Azerbaijani. Sixty-five percent are Georgian
Orthodox, 10 percent Russian Orthodox, and 11 percent Muslim.
Historical tensions between the eastern and western regions
of the country, which fall along sharply divisive religious
lines (Christian and Islamic), continue to exist.
Georgia's fertility, averaging 1.5 children per woman, has
long been among the lowest in the former USSR. Only 8 percent
of women use modern contraceptives. Georgia has the highest
abortion rate in the region, estimated at 45 abortions per
100 births.
*****
Family Privacy Act worries researchers
The Family Privacy Protection Act, part of the "100
Days" agenda of the 104th Congress, could make it much more
difficult to carry out surveys of children and youth. If it
becomes law, the act will require written parental consent
for any minor to participate in surveys asking sensitive
information taking place in the context of any "program or
activity funded in whole or in part by any Federal department
or agency." Topics covered include not only sexual behavior,
but other broad areas including religious beliefs, parental
political affiliations, "mental or psychological problems
potentially embarrassing to the minor or his family,"
"illegal, anti-social, self-incriminating, or demeaning
behavior," and more.
Japan's fertility rises after royal wedding?
Since Crown Prince Naruhito married in 1993, Japan's
fertility rate has risen to 1.49 in 1994 from 1.46 in 1993,
signifying 47,000 more babies in 1994 than in 1993. Some
Japanese attribute at least part of this increase to the
Crown Prince, who apparently influenced others to follow his
example of marriage. More significant factors in the
fertility rise, however, include the economic recession,
which discouraged female labor force participation, and
cyclical trends. [Market: Asia Pacific, April 1995.]
New German marital rape law
After a more than 20-year debate and five attempts to
pass a law, political parties represented in Germany's
Bundestag agreed to amend the criminal code to provide the
same degree of punishment for spousal rape as for other rape.
The new legislation, still under debate, calls for stiffer
penalties for both female and male violators, including those
in homosexual relationships. A new classification of sexual
assault_from coercion to rape_may soon cover all forms of
sexual violence. [This Week in Germany, February 24, 1995.]
Family planning: It seems to be working
World population grew by 88 million people last year,
reaching a total of 5.7 billion. Yet, there is evidence that
the impact of family planning is beginning to show itself in
smaller family size in many regions of the world. The total
fertility rate (TFR, or average children per woman) is down
to 3.4 in India, is 4.3 in Bangladesh, and has fallen to 1.9
in China. But many countries, especially in Africa, remain
only on the verge of reduced fertility. African women average
six children. [PRB's 1995 World Population Data Sheet.
Price: $3.00 each plus $1 shipping and handling. Data are
available on diskette in Excel, Lotus, or ASCII format.
Price: $10.00.]
Fertility decline in India
Fertility in India declined from 3.6 children per woman
in 1991 to 3.4 in 1993, according to the 1993 National Family
Health Survey (NFHS). Today, nearly all women have some
knowledge of family planning, and 96 percent are aware of at
least one modern or traditional contraceptive method. Women
in rural areas averaged one more child (TFR 3.7) than women
in cities (TFR 2.7). Some regions, such as Kerala and Goa,
areas notable for strong government programs that stress
women's equality, reached below- replacement levels. ["New
Survey Finds Fertility Decline in India," Asia-Pacific
Population & Policy, no. 32, January-February 1995, East-West
Center, Program on Population, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu,
HI 96848, 808-944-7482.]
New books and resources
Bibliography of American Demographic History: The
Literature from 1984 to 1994. David R. Gerhan. Westport, CT:
Greenwood Press, 1995. 368 pages. $79.50. ISBN 0-313-26677-8.
Demographics: A Casebook for Business and Government.
H.J. Kintner et al. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994. 361
pages. $29.95. ISBN 0-8133-1919-6.
Mega-City Growth and the Future. Roland Fuches et al.,
eds. Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1994. 428 pages.
$43.00. ISBN 92-808-0820-6.
The Immigration Dilemma: Avoiding the Tragedy of the
Commons. Garrett Hardin. Washington, DC: FAIR, 1995. 140
pages. $5.00. ISBN 0-935776-15-X.
Managing Primary Health Care: Implications of the Health
Transition. Richard Heaver. Washington, DC: World Bank, 1995.
41 pages. $6.95. ISBN 0-8213-3157-2.