UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
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This newsletter is being made available by the Population Information
Network (POPIN) of the United Nations Population Division/DESIPA and the
Population Reference Bureau, with funding from the Andrew W. Mellon
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Population Today
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
May 1996, Vol 24, No. 5
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy of
Population Today have not been included here. For a complete
copy of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population Reference
Bureau,1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C.
20009.
In this issue: ** Increasing Numbers of Migrants Challenge
Policymakers Worldwide ** Sampling, Simplified Forms Planned
for 2000 Census ** Single Parenthood Hurts Immigrants'
Economic Gains ** Southern California's Immigrants Progress
Rapidly ** Spotlight on India **
*****
Increasing Numbers of Migrants Challenge Policymakers Worldwide
By Philip Martin
International migration is at an all-time high. In the
mid-1990s, about 125 million people lived outside their
country of birth or citizenship. They accounted for about 2
percent of the world's population and their number is
expanding by 2 million to 4 million annually. In part because
of the increasing numbers, immigration is near the top of the
policy agenda in many of the world's major economic powers.
The world migrant population is not spread evenly
throughout the globe; it is concentrated in relatively few
countries. About half of the world's migrants live in the
developing world, particularly in those developing countries
rich in oil, diamonds, and other natural resources, or with
expanding manufacturing industries. Foreign workers form the
majority of the labor force in many Middle Eastern countries,
and about one-seventh of the labor force in South Africa.
Every world region hosts some political refugees, but
Africa and western Asia contain over half the world total of
27 million refugees and displaced persons. In addition,
several million persons entered Germany, the United States, or
France in the 1990s and requested asylum. Even though most of
their applications were rejected, many stayed.
Seven of the world's wealthiest countries (Germany,
France, United Kingdom, United States, Italy, Japan, and
Canada) have about one-third of the world's migrant
population, but less than one-eighth of the total world
population. Because of low birth rates in industrialized
nations, newly arriving immigrants account for a large
proportion of population growth in these countries: all the
growth in Germany, for example, and about one-third of the
annual growth in the United States.
In most cases, people move across borders to become
international migrants. But in some cases, migrants are
created when borders move across people, as when the breakup
of the USSR left 25 million Russians outside Russia.
Regional trends
The arrows on the world map (see figure) reflect major
global migration flows. The United States receives hundreds of
thousands of migrants each year from Mexico and Central
America and from Asia. Western Europe receives up to 1 million
migrants each year from North Africa, eastern Europe, and the
Middle East. Within Asia, migrants are moving to Japan,
Taiwan, and Malaysia, and millions of Indian, Pakistani, and
Bangladeshi workers are migrating to the Middle East. Africa's
migrants generally move from the interior to coastal
areas.
U.S. and Canadian immigration peaked at the beginning of
the 20th century, but the United States experienced a sharp
spike in immigration in the early 1990s, largely because of
two U.S. legalization programs.
On average, foreigners were 6 percent of the labor force
in western Europe in 1993, although foreigners ranged from
less than 1 percent in Spain to over 20 percent in Switzerland
and Luxembourg.
In Asia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Japan employ the
greatest numbers of migrant workers_more than 2 million
people total. The main sources of labor migrants in the
region are the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Indonesia.
Africa has long been associated with ethnic strife and
refugees, a picture reinforced in 1994 by the exodus from
Rwanda. However, there is also considerable labor migration
within Africa, from all over Africa to relatively rich South
Africa, and from the interior to the coastal cities of West
Africa.
In the Middle East, foreigners dominate the labor forces
of Persian Gulf countries. Between 60 and 90 percent of the
labor force of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and
the United Arab Emirates are foreign workers.
Israel has one of the world's highest rates of
immigration, and is also emerging as a major employer of
foreign workers_Thai and Romanian migrant workers now
outnumber Palestinians on Israeli farms and construction
sites.
Central America was marked by major refugee movements in
the 1980s, especially from Nicaragua and El Salvador. Both
Central and South America have experienced significant labor
migrations, such as the movement of Nicaraguans to Costa Rica,
Guatemalans to southern Mexico, Colombians to Venezuela, and
Bolivians to Argentina.
Reducing, managing migration
Economic growth can reduce migration motivated by
economic considerations. Economic growth is credited with
reducing transatlantic migration, bringing Italian and Spanish
migration to northern Europe to a stop, and turning Korea from
a labor exporter to an importer of migrant workers. Many
experts are convinced that economic growth can be accelerated
with freer trade, more foreign investment and, in some cases,
aid.
The industrial democracies of North America, Europe, and
Asia include a shrinking share of the world's population, but
an increasing share of the world's migrants. Many residents of
migrant-receiving countries want immigration reduced. This
attitude is demonstrated in many ways_arson attacks on
foreigners' homes in Germany, political parties committed to
stopping immigration in France, and increases in expenditures
on border controls in the United States.
Most industrial democracies deal with difficult
migration issues by adopting "Grand Bargains"_making trade-
offs such as coupling stepped- up efforts to reduce illegal
immigration with an amnesty for some unauthorized aliens.
Today, industrial democracies seem to be groping toward two
Grand Bargains. First, pair tougher immigration controls with
more assistance to integrate recently arrived newcomers, and
second, liberalize trade so that countries now dependent on
exporting workers to earn foreign exchange can export goods
instead of people.
For more information, see: "International Migration: A Global
Challenge," by Philip Martin and Jonas Widgren, Population
Bulletin 51, no. 1, April 1996. Price: $7.00/copy. To order,
call 1-800-877-9881.
*****
Sampling, Simplified Forms Planned for 2000 Census
By Paola Scommegna
"More like USA Today and less like a tax form or SAT
test." That's how Census Bureau Director Martha Farnsworth
Riche described the new, user-friendly census forms now on the
drawing table as her agency makes plans for the 2000 Census.
To save money and improve accuracy, the Census Bureau
will rely more on sampling techniques rather than trying to
knock on the door of every household that does not return
their form by mail, according to Riche, also PRB's former
director of Policy Studies.
"Using field staff to find missing respondents costs as
much as 18 times more than surveying people by mail," she
said.
After reaching a 90 percent response from the mail-in
form or the traditional personal visit in every census
district, the new plan calls for sampling 1 in 10 of the
remaining non- respondent households and using that
information as the basis to complete the count. They also plan
to thoroughly sample about one-half of 1 percent of the
entire U.S. population and use the results to check the
accuracy of the entire count.
"This quality control procedure will produce a `one-
number census' that is right the first time," Riche said,
referring to the 1990 count that was shown to have missed
about 2 percent of the population, mainly minorities and urban
residents.
A court case brought by several large cities that
received fewer federal funds because of the undercount was
decided by the Supreme Court in March. The court ruled that
the government was not obligated to adjust census figures to
correct the undercount.
Direct mail techniques
Following the example of the direct marketing industry,
households will hear from the Census Bureau not just once, but
at least three times. First they will receive a letter
describing the census and its benefits. Soon after that, they
will receive the census form, followed a few days later by a
postcard thanking those who participated and encouraging
others to do so. Households that do not respond will be
mailed another form and urged to fill it out.
Tests have shown that this multiple contact method can
increase the response rate as much as 12 percentage points,
according to Riche.
"We've recognized that the census is the largest direct-
mail campaign in the nation," she said.
New technology now allows tabulators to weed out
duplicate respondents, so forms for the 2000 Census will be
available not just through the mail, but at libraries,
convenience stores, and other public places.
Can we afford to count the homeless?
In 1990, the Census Bureau made its first attempt to
count homeless people, declaring one night "shelter night" and
counting all people sleeping in shelters. But there were
problems with the count. Many homeless people were suspicious
of census workers and some stayed away from the
shelters.
Another, more time-consuming, approach was pilot-tested
in Patterson, NJ, recently. It involved counting people with
the help of service providers at soup kitchens, shelters, and
clinics.
This method, though effective, is costly. It takes time
to win the confidence and cooperation of service providers,
and special efforts like counting the homeless are the first
to go when funds are cut back, Riche said.
And funding for the 2000 Census is uncertain. The
portion of the Census Bureau's current budget that includes
the groundwork for the 2000 Census has been caught in the
larger budget battle in Congress.
Riche says the innovations underway will save taxpayers
almost $1 billion over the cost of taking the census in the
traditional way. But some members of Congress would like to
see census funds cut even further. One proposal would squeeze
the census form onto a postcard and put the U.S. Postal
Service in charge of the count.
"They tell us their constituents complain that we are
bothering them by asking too many questions," Riche said.
To respond to those concerns, the Census Bureau is
testing a monthly survey of 250,000 households that would
replace the long form sent to one in six households during
the decennial census. This measurement system would provide
"continuously refreshed" up-to-date data.
Also in the works are efforts to make retrieving the
data more user-friendly. "Rather than thumbing through thick
books, people who want data will be able to use a computer and
`point and click' to find what they need," she said.
Despite the cost-saving innovations, inflation and the
increase in the number of households to count will make the
2000 Census the most expensive ever_a projected $3.9 billion,
a price tag cost-conscious members of Congress are likely to
question.
To express your views about the 2000 Census, contact your
members of Congress (U.S. House of Representatives,
Washington, DC 20215 and U.S. Senate, Washington, DC 20510).
*****
Single Parenthood Hurts Immigrants' Economic Gains
By Scott Turner
A study of various generations of Asian and Latin
American immigrants finds life in the United States takes a
toll on family stability.
Compared to the foreign-born children of immigrants, the
share of children living in single-parent households is
dramatically higher for children whose families have lived in
the United States for at least two generations.
According to Sal Oropesa, a Pennsylvania State
University sociology professor, life in the United States
exposes immigrants to the current social climate, including
high rates of single parenthood and divorce. This affects
family stability and threatens the economic status of
immigrant groups, he said.
"In many Latin American countries marriage is idealized
as a social institution and there's a stigma to being
divorced," Oropesa said. "Growing up and going to school in
the United States, children encounter different views and
develop values that are different from their immigrant
parents'."
Children whose families have lived in the United States
for a few generations may have parents with more skilled jobs
and higher incomes, he noted, but their access to those
resources is often limited when family disruption
occurs.
Oropesa and Nancy Landale, also a Pennsylvania State
sociology professor, used 1990 U.S. Census data to study 1.2
million children grouped by ethnicity, examining single-parent
households and poverty rates. Foreign-born children were
considered "first generation" and native-born children with at
least one foreign-born parent were considered "second
generation." Their "third generation" category included
native-born children with native-born parents, encompassing
the third generation and above.
The researchers found that third-generation children of
Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Dominican, and Filipino descent
were at least twice as likely to live in single-parent homes
than the average for all non-Hispanic white children (see
chart). Puerto Ricans living in the United States are not
immigrants, but were included in this study.
Because single parenthood is strongly linked to poverty,
the findings suggest that many U.S. Hispanics face a serious
disadvantage_their high rates of single-parent households are
an obstacle to future economic equality with the non-Hispanic
white population, Landale said.
The largest share of children living in single-parent
households was among third-generation children of Dominican
origin_72 percent. For Puerto Rican children living in the
United States, the share of third- generation children in
single-parent households was 63 percent.
The poorest first-generation Hispanic children were born
in the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. Between 40
and 50 percent of first-generation children in each group
lived below the poverty line in 1990.
Among Mexican American children, however, poverty rates
were lower for later generations. In 1990, 44 percent of
first-generation Mexican American children lived in poverty,
compared to 32 percent of second-generation and 28 percent of
third-generation children. The percentage of Mexican American
children in single-parent families followed the trend for
other immigrant groups and was higher for later generations_23
percent in the first generation and 39 percent in the third
generation.
The only Asian group to show increasing poverty was
Filipinos. This reflects the 40 percent of third- generation
Filipino children living in single-parent families.
Unlike most other Asian immigrants, the Vietnamese came
to the United States as refugees. They remain the poorest
Asian immigrants. Forty percent of first-generation Vietnamese
children and 25 percent of second-generation Vietnamese
children lived below the poverty line in 1990.
"The assimilation process is complex," Landale said.
"What happens over time is something different for each group
of immigrants.
"For decades, assimilation has been viewed as a process
where each succeeding generation in the United States does
better. But that's not the case for all groups."
For more information, see: "Immigrant Children and Children of
Immigrants: Inter- and Intra-Ethnic Group Differences," by
Nancy S. Landale and R.S. Oropesa, East Lansing, MI: Michigan
State University, Population Research Group, 1995.
Scott Turner is a former newswriter at Penn State, now at
Brown University.
*****
Southern California's Immigrants Progress Rapidly
By Carol Tucker
After living in southern California for a decade, most
Asian, Latino, and European immigrants were much better off
economically in 1990 than when they first arrived.
Between 1980 and 1990, a majority of immigrants who
arrived in southern California in the 1970s learned English
and saw their incomes grow, and the share living in poverty
declined dramatically, according to a study by Dowell Myers, a
University of Southern California demography
professor.
"Immigrants do not remain unassimilated and unchanged,"
Myers said. "The speed of upward mobility is striking."
Rather than comparing all immigrants in the 1980 Census
with all immigrants in the 1990 Census, Myers followed the
progress of individual groups of foreign-born residents as
they gained 10 years of experience and grew 10 years older
during the 1980s. Immigrants were assigned to groups (or
cohorts) according to their ethnicity, age at arrival, and
arrival date, an approach he calls the double-cohort method.
He examined English-language proficiency, naturalization
rates, occupational mobility, and income and poverty levels.
Overall, each ethnic group improved over time in every
category, although the rate and degree of improvement varied.
The most dramatic gains for each ethnic group were found among
immigrants who were under age 45 when they arrived (see
table).
Among all ethnic groups, Myers found that the longer
immigrant males lived in southern California, the more likely
they were to be self-employed. Among European and Middle
Eastern immigrants between the ages of 25 and 34 years, self-
employment rates increased from 15 percent to 35 percent; for
Asians, from 8 percent to 21 percent; and for Latinos, from 3
percent to 11 percent. Self-employment rates of immigrants are
generally higher than those of native-born Americans of the
same ethnic group.
"Immigrants tend to be risk-takers; they have more of an
entrepreneurial spirit," he noted.
Myers acknowledges that his study depicts a more hopeful
outlook for southern California immigrants than past studies
have suggested. Casual observers and policymakers tend to look
at total trends for all immigrants over time, and that "leads
to misguided conclusions about how immigrants fare while
living in this country," Myers said.
His double-cohort measurement yields surprisingly
different results from overall trends. For example, the
poverty rate for all foreign-born Latinos in southern
California rose slightly (from 22 to 23 percent) between 1980
and 1990. Meanwhile, poverty declined among all cohorts of
Latinos who arrived in the 1970s.
"It's a paradox," he said. "Individuals are improving
themselves, escaping poverty; but the influx of newcomers with
high poverty levels drags the average down, hiding the gains
made by those who have had 10 years of experience."
For more information, see "The Changing Immigrants of Southern
California," available from: School of Urban and Regional
Planning, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
90089. Background on the theory underlying the double-cohort
method can be found in the Feb. 1996 issue of Demography.
Carol Tucker is a USC newswriter.
*****
India
By Carl Haub
Population mid-1995: 931 million
Land area: 1,147,950 square miles
Births: 29 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 9 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 74 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 1.9 percent per year
Total fertility: 3.4 births per woman
Life expectancy: 60(male)/60(female)
Capital: New Delhi
Modern India contains more diversity than any other
country. There are 15 official languages and hundreds of
dialects, at least six major religions (Hinduism, Islam,
Christianity, Sikhism, Buddhism, and Jainism), and a great
variety of ethnic groups and cultures. About 83 percent of the
population is classified as Hindu, but other small groups,
such as Sikhs and Jains, have a disproportionate impact on
business and government because of their concentration in
business and commerce.
On top of this eclectic mix lies the caste system.
Brahmins, who are often priests and judges, occupy the top
rung, followed by the soldier/administrator group called the
Kshatriyas, the artisans and entrepreneurs of the Vaisyas, and
the agrarian Sudras. Below these are the untouchables. Social
interaction and intermarriage have been historically forbidden
and, despite government efforts, the caste system retains
considerable power. India has an affirmative action program
that employs in the civil service members of specific groups
who have experienced discrimination, such as the "scheduled
castes" and "scheduled tribes," the latter composed of
aboriginal groups.
India's main geographic features are the Great Plains to
the north, the hilly and wooded Central Highlands just below,
and the Deccan Plateau and Coastal Plains to the south. About
57 percent of India's land area is classified by the UN Food
and Agriculture Organization as arable or in permanent crops.
The country's efforts to feed its burgeoning population have
been remarkable, high- lighted by the "green revolution"
beginning in the 1960s. Although India is considered self-
sufficient in food grains, "drought-proofing" the agricultural
sector has been a critical concern. Agriculture accounts for
26 percent of GDP, but provides the livelihood of about 70
percent of the population.
While India's population is second in size to China's,
its annual population growth of about 18 million leads the
world. Arguably, no country has a greater potential for
population growth. Projections show India approaching 2
billion before growth ends. Will India pass China in
population size? That depends upon the future course of both
countries' birth rates. China's low TFR (total fertility, or
the average number of lifetime births per woman) of only 1.9
children per woman could rise to the point where India never
surpasses China in population size.
In India, population growth has been a major national
concern since the 1960s. Despite many difficulties, the
government's commitment has played a key role in lowering the
TFR from about 6 children in the 1950s and 1960s to about 3.4
in the early 1990s. This has been quite an achievement,
particularly in light of women's 56.7 percent illiteracy rate.
Other problems include adverse public reaction to the
sterilization campaigns of the late 1970s.
According to the 1992-1993 National Family Health
Survey, about 41 percent of married women use contraception,
36 percent a modern method. Sterilization predominates, used
by 27 percent of married women_one of the world's highest
usage rates. The popularity of other methods is relatively
low, ranging from 1.2 percent for the pill to 3.4 percent for
male sterilization. Continued fertility reduction may depend
upon increases in the use of "spacing" methods such as the
pill, IUD, and condom. The TFR varies from 4.8 in Uttar
Pradesh state, whose population of about 155 million would
make it the sixth largest country in the world, to 1.9 in Goa
and 2.0 in the southern state of Kerala, where women have
enjoyed atypical equality for many years.
*****
News and Resources
New Youth Data Sheet from PRB
The World's Youth 1996 profiles the major challenges for
young people worldwide, focusing on reproductive health_early
pregnancy and childbirth, unsafe abortion, HIV/AIDS and other
STDs, sexual violence against young women, educational
attainment and adolescent fertility, and accessibility of
contraceptive services and information.
Available in English, Spanish, and French. Price: $3.50.
Contact: Circulation Dept., Population Reference Bureau, 1875
Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite. 520, Washington, DC 20009-5728;
1-800-877-9881.
Environmental reports available on-line
For the first time, environmental reports previously
available only to members of Congress and their staff will be
publicly accessible. The nonprofit Committee for the National
Institute for the Environment (CNIE) is posting over 140
Congressional Research Service (CRS) environmental reports on
its electronic library, the National Library for the
Environment. Its address is http://www.cnie. org/nle.
CRS reports cover topics such as forestry, agriculture,
marine resources, mining, biodiversity, pollution, water, and
energy.
For more information, contact CNIE, 1725 K Street, NW,
Washington, DC 20006-1401; (202) 628-4304; fax (202) 628-4311;
e-mail cnie@cnie.org.
Regional conflicts threaten 42 million
Considerable international humanitarian aid will be
essential if 42 million people worldwide are to be saved from
life-threatening disease or starvation due to regional
conflicts, according to a new federal study.
"Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1996" catalogs more
than 20 emergencies caused by countries' internal conflicts or
repressive government policies. These emergencies turn
civilians into refugees, as well as provoke widespread hunger,
stress on resources, environmental deterioration, and
economic, political, and social collapse.
Afghanistan, Sudan, Bosnia, Ethiopia, Angola, Rwanda,
Sierra Leone, Liberia, Iraq, Haiti, Eritrea, Somalia, and
Tajikistan top the list of countries where international aid
is most needed to prevent starvation and disease. Simmering
conflicts make Nigeria, Cuba, Bangladesh, and Armenia areas of
potential future humanitarian emergencies.
For a copy of "Global Humanitarian Emergencies 1996,"
contact the U.S. Mission to the United Nations at (212) 415-
4275.
Upcoming demography conference
Bowling Green University is hosting the Sixth
International Conference on Applied and Business Demography,
to be held Sept. 19-21, 1996, in Bowling Green, OH. The
conference will cover all areas of applied demography and will
include paper and poster sessions, software demonstrations,
panel discussions, workshops, and exhibits.
For more information, contact K.V. Rao, Conference
Director, Department of Sociology, BGSU, Bowling Green, OH
43403; (419) 372-7240; fax (419) 372- 8306; e-mail adconf96
@bgsuvax.bgsu.edu.
New Books
The State of the World's Children 1996. New York:
UNICEF/Oxford University Press, 1996. 103 pages. Free.
1994 Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and
Naturalization Service. Washington, DC: INS/GPO, 1996. 180+
pages. $45.63. ISSN: 0743-538x.
The State of Humanity. Julian Simon, ed. Cambridge, MA:
Blackwell Publishers, 1995. 694 pages. $22.95. ISBN: 1-55786-
585-x.
Imperiled Waters, Impoverished Future: The Decline of
Freshwater Ecosystems. Janet N. Abramovitz. Washington, DC:
Worldwatch Institute, 1996. 80 pages. Worldwatch Paper 128.
$5.00. ISBN: 1-878071-30-0.
Women's Education, Autonomy, and Reproductive Behavior:
Experience from Developing Countries. Shireen J. Jejeebhoy.
New York: Oxford University Press, 1995. 306 pages. $65.00.
ISBN: 0-19-829033-0.
Pesticides and the Immune System: The Public Health
Risks. Robert Repetto and Sanjay S. Baliga. Washington, DC:
World Resources Institute, 1996. 103 pages. $14.95. ISBN: 1-
56973-087-3.