UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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This newsletter is being made available by the Population Information
Network (POPIN) Gopher/Web site of the United Nations Population
Division, Department for Economic and Social Inforamtion and Policy
Analysis, in collaboration with the Population Reference Bureau, and with
funding from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.
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Population Today
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
April 1996, Vol 24, No. 4
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy of
Population Today have not been included here. For a complete copy
of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population Reference Bureau,1875
Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009.
In this issue: ** Experts Predict Increase in Overseas
Abortions, Maternal Deaths ** Play Ball! Demographics and Major
League Baseball
** Earth Day Feature: Population, Consumption, and the Earth's
Future ** Spotlight on South Korea **
Experts Predict Increase in Overseas Abortions, Maternal Deaths
By Paola Scommegna
At least 7 million couples in developing countries who depend
on U.S.-funded family planning programs will lose access to
contraceptives as a result of this year's 35 percent cut in U.S.
family planning aid, according to estimates made by five population
organizations.
Among the couples who will no longer have access to modern
contraceptives, more than half the women (an estimated 4 million)
are likely to become pregnant unintentionally. These pregnancies are
expected to lead to 1.9 million more unplanned births, 1.6 million
more abortions, and an additional 8,000 women dying in pregnancy and
childbirth, the organizations report.
Also, an estimated 134,000 additional babies will die before
their first birthday, the result of the increase in high-risk
births.
The estimates are based on the work of demographers at the Alan
Guttmacher Institute, the Futures Group, Population Action
International, the Population Reference Bureau, and the Population
Council (see box, page 2, for methodology).
The calculations reflect the impact of the 35 percent funding
cut Congress approved in January, but do not take into account the
additional restrictions Congress imposed. Congress cut support for
international population programs to $356 million, $192 million
below 1995 levels. The funds cannot be spent until July and will
only be released in 15 equal-size monthly installments between July
1996 and September 1997. Unless this delay is lifted, it will reduce
new population aid funds available during fiscal 1996 to $72
million, producing the equivalent of a cutback of more than 85
percent.
"These statistics represent the most conservative estimates of
what a 35 percent cut would mean," said Sen. Mark Hatfield (R-OR),
speaking on the Senate floor in early March. "We can expect nearly
2 million more abortions and a minimum of 8,000 more women dying in
pregnancy and childbirth. One need not be a professional demographer
to calculate what this year's 85 percent cut will mean for families
across the globe."
Hatfield led a successful effort in mid-March to get the Senate
to modify the spending restrictions on the 1996 overseas family
planning funds. The Senate version of the omnibus spending bill
authorizes the President to release the funds if he determines that
the restrictions lead to an increase in abortions or an unmet need
for family planning.
An effort to strike the Hatfield provision was defeated; during
the debate several senators quoted from the estimates of additional
abortions and maternal and infant deaths to explain their
opposition. A House-Senate conference committee must approve the
provision before it goes to the President for his signature.
Estimates draw criticism
Nicholas Eberstadt, a researcher at the American Enterprise
Institute and the Harvard Center for Population and Development
Studies, faulted the calculations for underestimating poor couples'
ability to change their behavior in the face of constraints.
"Third World parents will not fatalistically abandon their
views about their own desired family size and fall into a breeding
frenzy," he wrote in the March 11 Washington Times.
Without access to free family planning services, poor couples
may buy contraceptives, choose abstinence, or practice natural
family planning, "which brought low fertility to Europe before
modern contraceptives were invented," Eberstadt wrote.
Family planning providers plan service reductions
With news of the latest U.S. funding cuts, the Family Planning
Association of Kenya, the country's largest nongovernmental agency
providing family planning and reproductive health services, closed
eight outreach clinics that provided contraceptives to 10,000 women
in a remote mountainous region. They also abandoned plans for a new
program aimed at 15- to 19-year-olds, the group with the highest
abortion rates in the country.
"Cuts in funding mean we will see more women dying in
childbirth and more teenagers having illegal and dangerous
abortions," said Margaret Thuo, program manager for the
organization.
Brazil's BEMFAM, the local International Planned Parenthood
Federation (IPPF) affiliate, estimated that 250,000 couples will
lose access to family planning and related health services in the
country's poor northeastern region.
Peru's IPPF affiliate, INPPARES, projected that it will have
to lay off medical staff, discontinue staff training, and reduce its
supply of contraceptives. INPPARES estimated that up to 200,000
Peruvian couples will lose access to family planning services.
((sidebar))
A Look at How the Estimates Were Calculated
"We took great care to use only the most reliable sources and
anticipate any challenges to our assumptions," said Alene Gelbard,
PRB's director of International Programs and one of the demographers
who worked on the estimates.
"When there were questions, we chose the most cautious
assumptions," she said. "If anything, the estimates understate the
impact of the 35 percent cutback in U.S. population assistance."
As the team worked and reworked the calculations, they drew on
the most recent research ranging from national censuses and
population estimates, to country-specific surveys of women of
reproductive age, to studies of contraceptive use and pregnancy
outcomes.
To determine how many couples who depend on U.S.-funded family
planning programs will lose access to contraceptives, they began
with the number of women of reproductive age in developing countries
outside China because China's family planning program does not
receive any U.S. funds.
From there, they took the number of women in union and the
proportion of couples using modern contraceptive methods from
publicly funded sources.
Three different approaches all found that the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) funds 17 percent of public-sector
family planning services in developing countries excluding China,
Gelbard reported.
They then excluded women using permanent or long-term methods.
To determine the effect of losing U.S.-supported family
planning services, they used Demographic and Health Survey data to
estimate the share of couples who would turn to traditional methods
or use no method. From those data they also estimated the number
of unintended pregnancies based on pregnancy rates and failure rates
for various family planning methods.
Using 1994 WHO data and several other recent studies, they
estimated the share of pregnancies that would end in abortion or
miscarriage, and result in live births. Maternal and infant
mortality rates were applied to the number of births to estimate
maternal and infant deaths.
The full methodology, including detailed references, is
available from PRB. ((end sidebar))
PRB staff member Victoria Ebin contributed to this report.
*****
Play Ball! Demographics and Major League Baseball By Kelvin Pollard
An annual rite of spring begins this month when major league
baseball teams return from spring training to begin the 1996 season.
Despite its recent off-the-field troubles, including the effects of
a 1994 players' strike that wiped out that year's World Series,
baseball remains a multibillion- dollar business and a favorite
American pastime. And like most successful businesses, baseball's
growth mirrors the demographic trends of the last 40 years.
In 1956, there were 16 major league baseball teams, all located
in the United States. Most of those teams were located in either the
Northeast or Midwest_with Baltimore and Washington the only
exceptions (see table). Today, nearly a half-century later, there
are 28 teams, including 12 (43 percent) located in the South and
West and two in Canada. An additional two franchises_based in the
Sunbelt cities of Phoenix and Tampa-St. Petersburg_are scheduled to
start play in 1998. While some teams have relocated in that time_for
example, the Braves moved from Milwaukee to Atlanta after the 1965
season_new teams have fueled the expansion of major league baseball
to the South and West.
Like other businesses, baseball's expansion has been influenced
by population growth patterns. The 10 U.S. metropolitan areas that
have attracted major league teams in the past 40 years have grown,
on average, 126 percent between 1960 and 1994. Some individual
cities have grown at even faster rates. Atlanta, for example, more
than tripled its 1960 population. Although the expansion of
metropolitan-area boundaries accounts for some of this population
growth, new franchises generally emerged in the most rapidly growing
metropolitan areas. By contrast, the areas that had at least one
baseball team 40 years ago have grown an average of just 34 percent
since 1960.
Not only have baseball franchises tended to locate in the most
rapidly growing areas, they also have settled in the largest ones:
each of the 17 largest metropolitan areas in 1994 has a major league
baseball team. All of the 26 American- based franchises are located
in one of the nation's 25 largest metros. Some of the very largest
metropolitan areas have two teams. For example, New York supports
the Yankees and the Mets (although it supported the Yankees,
Dodgers, and Giants in 1956).
Of course, demographic trends alone do not determine where
owners locate, or relocate, a team. Other factors, such as fan
support, stadium amenities, and franchise operating expenses also
play significant roles in this process. Sports franchises are
businesses, and team owners, like other business people, must
consider whether their investments are turning a profit. In their
search for revenue sources, owners increasingly are attracted to
localities willing and able to provide modern stadium facilities and
other financial incentives. Declines in attendance in the aftermath
of the 1994 baseball strike have put added pressure on franchise
owners. Although no major league baseball team has moved since the
end of the 1971 season, financial considerations are endangering
current franchises in Houston and Seattle.
Despite the increased importance of bottom-line factors in
franchise location, or relocation, population trends will never be
ignored. After all, teams still need fans!
Major League Baseball Teams by Region
1956 Major League Baseball Teams
Northeast Midwest South West
Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Baltimore Orioles
Brklyn Dodgers Chicago Wh.Sox Wash.Senators
N.Y.Yankees Cincinn. Reds
New York Giants Cleveland Indians
Phila. Phillies Detroit Tigers
Pitts.Pirates K.C.Athletics
Milw.Braves
St.Louis Cardinals
1996 Major League Baseball Teams
Northeast Midwest South West
Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Atlanta Braves Calif.Angels
New York Mets Chicago Wh.Sox Balt.Orioles Color.Rockies
N.Y.Yankees Cincinn.Reds Flor.Marlins L.A.Dodgers
Phila. Phillies Clev.Indians Houston Astros Oakland As
Pitts.Pirates Detroit Tigers Texas Rangers S.D.Padres
K.C.Royals San Fran.Giants
Milw.Brewers Seat.Mariners
Minnesota Twins
St.Louis Cardinals
Note: In 1956, there were no Canadian major league teams. In
1996, there were two_in Montreal and Toronto. Source: The Washington
Post, survey of sports sections, 1956 and 1996.
***** EARTH DAY FEATURE Population, Consumption, and the
Earth's Future
At first glance, the connection between population growth and
environmental problems seems clear: more humans consume more
resources and generate more waste. Following this simple line of
reasoning, there is cause for alarm. World population has doubled
since 1950, and now stands at 5.8 billion_a number that is likely
to double by the end of the next century. Twelve billion humans
could do a lot of environmental damage.
Reality is more complex. Stark differences in consumption mean
that some humans have a far greater environmental impact than
others. With only 22 percent of the world's population, the
industrialized nations use two-thirds of all resources consumed and
generate 75 percent of all pollutants and waste. Evidence suggests
that the consumption habits of the industrialized countries have
severely strained the life-supporting systems of the biosphere.
"The greatest threat to the environment comes from the
wealthiest billion of the world's people, who consume the most
resources and generate the most wastes, and from the poorest billion
who are forced to destroy their meager resource base in order to
survive." --UN Population Fund, 1992
**** Earth Day Facts and Figures
* Wealthy people, mostly in industrial nations, make up about
one-fifth the world's population. Yet they control 85 percent of its
income and consume 70 percent of its energy, and 85 percent of its
wood. They produce two-thirds of all greenhouse gasses and 90
percent of ozone-depleting chloro- fluorocarbons (CFCs). (Hunger,
1994)
* The industrialized nations generate 75 percent of the world's
pollutants and wastes. (Environmental Impact Assessment Review,
1992)
* A child born in the United States will, in his or her
lifetime, have 35 times more impact on the Earth's environment on
average than a child born in India and more than 250 times the
impact of a child born in one of the nations of sub- Saharan Africa.
(UNICEF, 1994)
* Each person in the United States uses an average of 24 barrels
of oil per year, compared to 12 in Europe, and just 1 in Africa.
(Hunger, 1994)
* An estimated 11 percent of the planet's land surface_4.6
million square miles, an area larger than the United States and
Mexico combined_has suffered moderate to severe land degradation
since 1945, diminishing its capacity to grow crops and other
vegetation. (Information Please Environmental Almanac, 1994)
**** The Carrying Capacity Debate: Can the Earth support all its
inhabitants--today and into the future--at current consumption
levels?
Some say YES. Some economists have argued that, with technical
ingenuity and properly functioning markets, there are no limits to
the number of people the planet can sustain. When markets function
well, they argue, resource scarcity will trigger warning signals in
the form of higher prices, which will set in motion adaptive
behaviors_substitution, recycling, technological innovation,
conservation_that will prevent resource depletion.
They also argue that increases in income generate demands for
environmental quality: The largest cities in the poorest countries
have the worst air quality, but as incomes rise, countries can
afford pollution control measures.
* "There is no meaningful limit to our capacity to keep growing
forever." Julian Simon, 1981
* "If present trends continue, the world in 2000 will be less
crowded (though more populated), less polluted, more stable
ecologically, and less vulnerable to resource-supply disruption than
the world we live in now. Stresses involving population, resources
and environment will be less in the future than now...The world's
people will be richer in most ways than they are today...The outlook
for food and other necessities of life will be better...life for
most people on earth will be less precarious economically." Julian
Simon, Herman Khan, 1984
* "The world is unlikely to go crashing full-speed into the wall
of resource depletion or environmental collapse without warning from
the price system that something is going terribly wrong."
Environmental economist Anthony Fisher, quoted in Mazur, 1992
Some say NO. Environmentalists argue that population growth and
consumption can offset hard-won gains in pollution control and
natural resource conservation. While properly functioning markets
can prevent resource depletion, environmentalists note that markets
are often dysfunctional. For example, U.S. federal subsidies to
logging, grazing, and mining keep prices artificially low, muting
any warning signals that resource limits are near. No market exists
for many commonly held resources, such as the global atmosphere. The
planet's carrying capacity depends not only on production of food,
timber, and other resources for human use, but also on the health
of complex biospheric systems, which we are only beginning to
understand.
* "If current predictions of population growth prove accurate and
patterns of human activity on the planet remain unchanged, science
and technology may not be able to prevent either irreversible
degradation of the environment or continued poverty for much of the
world." The U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society
of London, 1992
* "Unless we climb down the consumption ladder a few rungs, our
grandchildren will inherit a planetary home impoverished by our
affluence_a planet whose climate has been drastically altered in
mere decades, whose air and water are poisoned... [and] we will have
no authority to object to the world's present poorer classes
despoiling the Earth." Alan Thein Durning, 1992
**** Finding Harmony Between Human Needs and Resource
Preservation
In September 1994, the International Conference on Population
and Development in Cairo, Egypt, achieved an unprecedented consensus
among 180 countries on what to do about some of the world's most
pressing issues. Here are some highlights from the conference's
action plan related to the environment:
* Promote sustainable resource management
* Prevent environmental degradation
* Promote cleaner technologies
* Modify unsustainable consumption patterns
* Promote sustainable agriculture
* Encourage forest conservation
* Improve water conservation
* Manage oceans better
South Korea
By Marion Carter
Population: 45 million
Land Area: 300, 946 square miles
Births: 15 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 6 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 11 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 1.0 percent per year
Total fertility: 1.6 births per woman
Life expectancy: 68(male)/76 (female)
Capital: Seoul
Poised between China, Russia, Japan, and North Korea, The
Republic of Korea (popularly known as South Korea) is the size of
Indiana, with a population about three times that of Texas. The vast
majority of South Koreans are ethnic Koreans and speak Korean. With
a rich cultural history, the Korean people represent a wide range
of religious traditions, including Confucianism, different sects of
Buddhism, Protestantism, Catholicism, and indigenous religions.
Koreans began the century with 40 years of rule by Japan.
After World War II and a brief attempt at creating a united country
on the peninsula, the Korean War began between the largely Russian-
backed North Koreans and American-backed South Koreans. With the
war's end in 1953, the famed 38th parallel became the border between
the two countries.
Those years of foreign rule and war were followed by a time of
explosive growth and change.
As a part of its drive to raise living standards, the South
Korean government operates what is considered one of the world's
most effective family planning programs. Contraceptive use stood at
about 9 percent in 1966. By 1988, more than three-quarters of
Korean couples were using some form of modern contraception.
Notably, half of all South Korean women using contraception
today are sterilized. Abortion rates have been relatively high as
well. In fact, according to a 1985 survey, induced abortion
accounted for nearly one-third of total fertility reduction. Many
of these abortions appear to be for sex selection; data from the
mid-1980s reveal a disproportionate share of male births. A 1986 law
forbids the identification of fetal sex except in limited cases.
More recent data show abortion rates declining for married women.
Over the past 35 years, the provision and use of family
planning has facilitated a remarkable 75 percent drop in the TFR
(total fertility rate, or the average number of children born to a
woman in her lifetime). In 1960, the TFR was about 6.0, dropping to
4.1 in the early 1970s and reaching a replacement level of 2.1 in
the mid-1980s. Now the TFR stands at about 1.6 (compared with a
U.S. TFR of 2.1). An increase in the age of first marriage for both
males and females has also played a role in Korea's fertility
decline.
This fertility change is only a part of the larger social and
economic development that has made South Korea one of East Asia's
"tigers." Economically, gross national product per capita has grown
from $85 in the early 1960s to about $8,000 today. South Korea now
has a strong and growing service sector and a dominant place among
car, steel, electronics, and textile industries worldwide.
Illiteracy has dropped from 78 percent in 1945 to 4 percent in 1990.
Reflecting better health and health care, life expectancy has risen
from 55 years in the early 1960s to over 70 today. Such developments
have been accompanied by rapid urbanization as well. Over the last
30 years, urbanization has jumped from 28 percent to over 76
percent in 1990.
For all of the benefits, these changes have presented South
Korea with new social issues. With the population still growing,
albeit at a slower rate, and with consumption rising, the population
pressure on land and resources continues to mount. By 2000, South
Korea will depend on imports for 66 percent of food grain production
and 90 percent of energy needs.
In addition, South Korea now must prepare for the needs of an
aging society and an impending labor shortage. In 1960, only 5.3
percent of the population was over 60 years old, reaching 7.5
percent in 1990. By 2025, older people will compose 22 percent of
the total population, and the median age of the labor force will be
over 40. To address these issues, the government and industries are
encouraging more female participation in the formal labor force,
more foreign direct investment, industrial restructuring, and the
importing of labor, among other strategies.
*****
News and Resources
Student film contest
The 1996 World Population Film/Video Festival is seeking films
by secondary and college students about population growth, resource
consumption, the environment, and the global future. Population
Communications International, the Sopris Foundation, and Searchlight
Films are sponsoring the event. Entries must be cosigned by a
teacher, postmarked by June 1, 1996, and accompanied by a $10 entry
fee. Winners will be announced October 15, with cash prizes totaling
$10,000. Last year's winning films are available on videotape at no
charge. For a copy of the video, entry forms, and more information,
contact: Rawn Fulton, 46 Fox Hill Road, Bernardston, MA 01337, (800)
638-9464; e-mail popvidfest@aol.com.
Fellowship opportunity
Family Health International is recruiting for a fellowship in
the Washington, DC USAID office. The fellow will coordinate the
Office of Population's initiative to improve access to and the
quality of family planning and other reproductive health services,
in addition to acting as a liaison to other agencies.
For more information, contact Susan Palmore, Family Health
International, P.O. Box 13950, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709;
(919) 544-7040; fax (919) 544-7261.
IUDs often overlooked
The intrauterine device (IUD) could be an ideal contraceptive
for many women who now are using less convenient, safe, or effective
alternatives.
The IUD's negative reputation is based on misconceptions and
outdated information, according to the current issue of Network, a
publication of the nonprofit reproductive health organization Family
Health International (FHI). The IUD has 100 million users worldwide,
most of whom are Chinese. In the United States, only 2 percent of
all couples of reproductive age using contraception use the IUD.
Safe IUD use requires that women be carefully screened and
counseled, and that insertion be performed under aseptic conditions.
Women at risk for sexually transmitted diseases or with cervical
infections should not use the IUD.
According to FHI, studies now show that the IUDs currently
available do not cause pelvic inflammatory disease, a cause of
infertility.
For more information, contact: Nash Herndon, Family Health
International, P.O. Box 13950, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709;
(919) 544-7040; fax (919) 544-7261.
Population pressure will spur energy consumption
Worldwide energy demands will grow at a rate of between 1.7
and 2.1 percent annually until 2010, according to a report by the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). World
Energy Outlook forecasts that by 2010 this increase in demand,
mostly of fossil fuels, will result in an estimated 42 percent
increase of emissions of carbon dioxide, a gas that has been blamed
for contributing to global warming. The largest increases in
emissions will come from developing countries.
Oil demand worldwide will rise by about 25 percent by 2010, to
85 million barrels of oil a day, up from a current level of 68
million.
To order World Energy Outlook, contact OECD Publications and
Information Center, 2001 L Street NW, Suite 650, Washington, DC
20036-4910; (202) 785-6323; fax (202) 785-0350.
New Books The Immigration Debate: Remaking America. John
Isbister. West Hartford, CT: Kumarian Press, Inc., 1996. 262 pages.
$21.95 paper. ISBN: 1-56549-053-3.
State of the World 1996. Lester R. Brown, et al. New York:
W.W. Norton & Co./Worldwatch Institute, 1996. 249 pages. $11.95
paper. ISBN: 0-393-313935-5.
Hunger 1996: Countries in Crisis. Washington, DC: Bread for
the World Institute on Hunger and Development, 1995. 113 pages.
$17.95 paper. ISBN: 1-884361-03-X.
UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1995. Paris: UNESCO, 1995. 1000
pages. $95.00. ISBN: 0-89059-049-1.
The World Bank Atlas 1996. Washington, DC: The World Bank,
1995. 36 pages. $7.95 paper. ISBN: 0-8213-3287-2.
Space, Text, and Gender: An Anthropological Study of the
Marakwet of Kenya. Henrietta L. Moore. New York: The Guilford Press,
1996. 234 pages. $17.95 paper. ISBN: 0-89862-825-3.