UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
***************************************************************************
This newsletter is being made available by the Population Information
Network (POPIN) Gopher/Web site of the United Nations Population
Division, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy
Analysis, in collaboration with the Population Reference Bureau and with
funding from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.
***************************************************************************
Population Today
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
March 1996, Vol 24, No. 3
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy of
Population Today have not been included here. For a complete copy
of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population Reference Bureau,1875
Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009.
In this issue: ** Growing Diversity Shapes the U.S. Population
at Mid-Decade ** Family Planning Aid Target of Steep Cuts ** "City
Summit" to Address Global Urbanization ** Spotlight on Turkey **
Growing Diversity Shapes the U.S. Population at Mid-Decade
By Carol J. De Vita
The 1996 presidential candidates crisscrossing the country
this year will find an electorate that continues to grow more
diverse. Along with racial and ethnic diversity, there is growing
diversity in where Americans live and work, our family structures,
and our economic well-being. These differences shape how we view
society and whom we choose to lead us.
Growth in the West, declines in the Northeast
One in eight Americans calls California home and most
candidates view California primary results as pivotal to their
campaigns. California has more than one and a half times the number
of people living in either Texas or New York_now the second and
third largest states in population.
While California, Florida, and New Hampshire were among the
top 10 fastest growing states in the 1980s, by the mid- 1990s their
rates of growth had slowed to a modest pace. Connecticut and Rhode
Island were the only states to go from net growth in the 1980s to
net decline.
The most rapid population growth in the 1990s occurred in the
West, especially in the mountain states of Nevada, Idaho, Arizona,
Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico. Combined, these six states added
almost 1.9 million people to the region's population in just five
years. Of the 10 fastest growing states, only Georgia was in the
eastern half of the country.
Income trends: widening gap between rich and poor
The nation's economic health is thought to be a key factor in
whether an incumbent is re-elected. The United States was pulling
out of an economic recession that hit the country at the beginning
of the decade (1990-1991), but median household income by mid-decade
had not fully recovered to pre- recession levels. Median income in
1994 lagged about 6 percent below its 1989 pre-recession peak. The
Northeast experienced the biggest decline (11 percent); the South
saw the smallest (3 percent).
Poverty rates, which rose during the early 1990s, have since
shown signs of improvement. Between 1993 and 1994, the rate of
poverty fell from 15.1 percent to 14.5 percent, and 1.2 million
fewer people were reported to be in poverty.
The income gap between the richest and poorest Americans,
however, widened over the past two decades, leaving many Americans
feeling insecure about the future. In 1994, the top 5 percent of
households pulled in $110,000 or more annually_more than eight times
the income of the bottom 20 percent of households ($13,000 or less).
Twenty years earlier, there was only a six fold difference between
the top and bottom of the income scale.
A nation of suburbanites; declining central cities
Over three-quarters (78 percent) of the U.S. population lived
in metropolitan areas at mid-decade, but most of these urbanites
(about 60 percent) lived in the suburbs. The long-standing exodus
from central cities to suburbs continued during the early 1990s,
leaving an increasing concentration of minority residents in central
cities_many of them poor, unskilled, and unable to follow the
employment opportunities shifting to the suburbs, exurbs, and
Sunbelt.
Many outlying counties considered remote and rural only a few
decades ago are receiving an influx of settlers whose livelihoods
depend on living within commuting range of jobs. These "edge cities"
now rival city centers in economic importance. Of America's top 40
job centers, only 22 were traditional city centers, while the rest
were in edge cities such as Irvine, California, near Los Angeles;
and Stamford, Connecticut, near New York City.
A baby boomlet for a middle-age population
The median age for the nation has been slowly creeping upward,
reaching 34 years in 1994, up from 30 years in 1980. Two in five
Americans are between the ages of 30 and 60, and nearly one in three
belongs to the celebrated baby-boom generation (born between 1946
and 1964). During the first half of the 1990s, every state
witnessed an increase in the number of older people in its
population. The elderly represent about 13 percent of the U.S.
population, but this share ranges widely from 18 percent in Florida
to 5 percent in Alaska.
Immigration and the large number of baby-boom women currently
in their childbearing years produced a mini-baby boom during the
late 1980s and early 1990s. By 1994, there were 68 million children
in the population _almost as many as at the height of the famed
baby-boom era.
With both younger and older segments of the population
increasing simultaneously, shifting resources from one group to
another becomes much more difficult from both an economic and
political perspective.
Growing racial and ethnic diversity
During the first half of the 1990s, the minority population
grew by 15 percent, compared with 3 percent growth in the
non-Hispanic white population. The Hispanic and Asian populations
grew fastest, expanding by 20 and 31 percent, respectively, while the
African American population increased by 8 percent.
Nationally, the growing numbers of minorities do not
automatically translate into political strength. The large number
of immigrants in the minority population means that many are not yet
citizens and therefore not eligible to vote. Minorities also tend
to have lower voter registration and voter turnout rates than
non-Hispanic whites. Among eligible voters, only 57 percent of
blacks and 48 percent of Hispanics went to the polls to vote in the
1992 presidential election, compared with 67 percent of whites (see
figure).
Prospects
Crafting a campaign message that appeals to large segments of
this diverse population will be a formidable task. But finding
common ground to govern an increasingly diverse society will be the
real test of leadership.
For more information, see "The United States at Mid-Decade,"
by Carol J. De Vita, Population Bulletin 50, no. 4, March 1996.
Cost: $7.00 each. To order, call 1-800-877-9881.
*****
Family Planning Aid Target of Steep Cuts:
Scaled-Back Foreign Aid Funds Finally Approved
By Paola Scommegna
International family planning programs were hit with steep
cuts and crippling restrictions when Congress resolved a stalemate
over family planning policy and approved foreign aid funds in late
January. The legislation, designed to avoid a third government
shutdown, also included sharp cuts for many other development aid
programs.
U.S. funds for the U.S. Agency for International Development
population programs and the UN Population Fund were cut 35 percent
from fiscal 1995. These funds were put on hold until July 1, to be
disbursed in 15 monthly installments between that date and September
1997.
This legislation represents a compromise worked out after
controversy over international family planning policy stalled the
foreign aid bill for several months. Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ), chair
of the House's Prolife Caucus, sponsored an amendment to reinstate
the so-called Mexico City policy. It would have banned U.S. funding
for organizations that provide abortions, even if they do so with
their own resources in countries where abortion is legal. The House
passed the amendment, but the Senate rejected it.
The compromise was negotiated as part of the continuing
resolution to keep the government running. It stipulated that
Congress could only increase funds for population and family
planning activities by passing a separate bill.
Overall, Congress reduced all types of foreign aid by 11
percent below 1995 levels. But aid programs for developing countries
received a disproportionate share of these cuts_ reductions of 25
percent on average. Aid for eastern Europe and the former Soviet
Union was cut less sharply, reduced by 9 and 11 percent,
respectively. Military and export promotion aid was also treated
more favorably than development aid for poor countries.
More than 40 percent of all foreign aid funds will continue to
go to Egypt and Israel, mainly as economic and military aid agreed
to under the 1977 Camp David peace treaty.
Congress singled out several development aid programs for
protection from severe cuts, including child survival and HIV/AIDS
prevention, and funds for sub-Saharan Africa. All other development
aid programs_including agriculture and environment, for example_will
see cuts of 30 percent or more.
The 35 percent reduction drops population assistance to $356
million, $192 million below 1995 levels. Because of the restrictions
imposed, only one-fifth of these population funds can be spent in
fiscal 1996. Combined, the restrictions and cutbacks produce the
equivalent of a nearly 90 percent cut in family planning funds
between fiscal 1995 and 1996.
In a speech on the Senate floor in early February, Sen. Mark
Hatfield (R-OR) argued that the cutbacks and restrictions will lead
to more abortions as family planning programs are disrupted and
access to contraceptives is limited.
The legislation is "not pro-life, it is not pro-woman, it is
not pro-child, it is not pro-health and it is not pro-family
planning," Hatfield said. The victims will be "very poor families
overseas who only ask for help in spacing their children through
contraception, not abortion," he argued.
Widespread public misunderstanding
These steep cuts in development aid come during a time when
foreign aid is widely misunderstood by the U.S. public. A recent
national survey found that a majority of Americans_60 percent_
believe the United States spends more on foreign aid than Medicare.
Foreign aid actually makes up about 1 percent of the budget, while
Medicare makes up 13 percent. Survey respondents estimated, however,
that foreign aid accounts for more than one-quarter of the federal
budget. The Washington Post, the Kaiser Foundation, and Harvard
University commissioned the survey, which was conducted in late
1995.
Another national survey conducted early last year by the
University of Maryland reported similar results. A strong majority
said that the United States is spending too much on foreign aid,
based on misconceptions about the amount actually spent.
When informed about the actual amount of foreign aid spending,
a strong majority favored either maintaining or increasing it. When
respondents were told how much was spent on each item in the foreign
aid budget, a majority favored reducing military aid and increasing
aid programs that help the poor and needy. Seventy-four percent of
Americans surveyed favored maintaining or increasing family planning
funds.
Most Americans polled (67 percent) believe that the United
States has a moral obligation to help nations in need; an
overwhelming majority (77 percent) rejected the idea that the United
States should only give aid when it promotes national interests.
*****
City Summit to Address Global Urbanization
By Martin Brockerhoff
The last major UN summit this century_Habitat II_is scheduled
for June 3-14 in Istanbul, Turkey. Officially called the Second UN
Conference on Human Settlements and nicknamed the "City Summit," the
conference will address the socioeconomic and environmental stresses
created by rapid urban growth since the initial Habitat conference
in 1976 in Vancouver.
"Adequate shelter for all" and "sustainable human settlements
in an urbanizing world" are the conference's two global themes. The
world's cities are growing by 1 million people each week. More than
one-third of the urban population now lives in substandard housing,
40 percent lack access to safe drinking water or adequate
sanitation, and poverty rates have reached 60 percent in some
cities. Population projections suggest that these conditions may
worsen: Today less than one- half of the world's people live in
urban areas, but by 2025 more than two-thirds of us will be urban
dwellers. Much of this urban growth and its most serious
consequences will occur in developing countries. But problems of
homelessness, congestion, declining infrastructures, and
deteriorating public services have become common in cities of
industrialized countries as well.
The "Habitat Agenda," to be ratified by delegates from more
than 100 countries in June, consists of a set of principles and
commitments, and a global plan of action to deal with urban problems
in the coming decades. The agenda has been developed over the past
year in three preparatory committee meetings ("Prepcoms"), with the
participation of country representatives as well as a large
contingent of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and numerous
international agencies, most notably the Kenya-based UN Centre for
Human Settlements. The draft agenda has been shaped with input from
informal advisory groups throughout the world with expertise in
urban planning, environmental health, labor economics, and
demography.
Controversy over population, right to housing
Early drafts of the summit's action plan focused on managing
the environmental consequences of rapid urban growth, rather than
on slowing urban growth through migration policies or family
planning programs.
"The document contained not a single sentence about the impact
of population growth or the importance of stabilizing world
population," said Dianne Dillon-Ridgley, president of Zero
Population Growth (ZPG).
The neglect to date of population issues in the Habitat agenda
was reiterated by Nafis Sadik, executive director of the UN
Population Fund, in her opening statement to the third Prepcom on
February 5. She emphasized the important role slowing population
growth plays in addressing environmental and urban problems. She
pointed to numerous insights gained from the 1994 Conference on
Population and Development. Sadik also called for incorporating
into the Habitat agenda language from the 1995 International
Conference on Women that called for women's empowerment, as well as
internationally recognized commitments to improve the well- being
of the poor and youth.
Representatives of the UNFPA and other population
organizations anticipate that the final document produced in June
will contain numerous references to natural increase, migration, and
other demographic processes related to urban growth.
Other areas of controversy also marked the Prepcom meetings.
A fundamental disagreement remains over whether housing is a
universal right, as espoused by most participating developing
countries and NGOs, or just a need, as maintained by the U.S.
delegation. The U.S. position has prevailed to date. The United
States is unlikely to agree to endorse housing as a right because
such an endorsement may have implications for domestic housing
policy and spending.
Also, U.S. and European representatives have expressed concern
that the agenda overemphasizes the capacity of local and national
governments to address urban problems at a time of serious financial
constraints in most developing countries.
Delegates reached consensus on a number of other issues. They
agreed that governments should encourage greater citizen
participation, particularly by women, in local decision-making, and
increase collaboration between local authorities, community groups,
and the private sector in addressing shortages of housing, jobs, and
infrastructure. They also agreed to meet and protect the basic needs
of the most disadvantaged urbanites_children, women, the elderly,
and the disabled_and of persons living in unsafe slums within or
around urban areas.
Wide participation could strain logistics
Habitat II's daily session attended by country delegates will
be accompanied by a wide range of parallel activities and public
events. A "Cities Assembly" of local authorities and associations
from around the world will prepare a statement prior to the
conference and will meet to endorse the conference's plan of action
afterward.
Other anticipated gatherings will include researchers and
academics; private-sector representatives; public and private
foundations linked to urban issues; and leaders of NGOs,
community-based organizations, and social movements. Istanbul's
World Trade Centre will present "Global Ideas for Better Cities,"
one of several exhibitions open to the public, including others
sponsored by UNICEF, WHO, and the UN Environment Programme.
As part of the action agenda, delegates plan to identify
effective and innovative efforts to improve city environments and
spread these ideas worldwide through a network of global
urban-oriented NGOs. The conference's format_which involves local
officials from around the world and includes separate meetings for
organizations representing numerous fields and interests_will
challenge the logistical capacity of conference organizers and the
host city. Organizers are counting on the extremely open atmosphere
of Habitat II_following the restrictions imposed on participants at
the Beijing Women's Conference_to enhance the quality of the
official document, the "Istanbul Covenant on the Future of Human
Settlements," as well as increase the likelihood that its
recommendations will be implemented.
The U.S. delegation will include officials from the U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, the State Department,
and the U.S. Agency for International Development. A grassroots
coalition of U.S. NGOs, the U.S. Network for Habitat, is sponsoring
a series of town meetings this spring to focus attention on the
connections between the summit and local community development.
Meetings are planned in Ames (IA), Atlanta, Boston, Brownsville
(TX), Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Oakland (CA), Sarasota (FL), and
Seattle.
((sidebar))
Challenges of Urbanization in Developing Countries:
The Demographic Dimension
Rapid urban growth will have the most dramatic impact on
developing countries. At the time of the Habitat I conference in
1976, the world's developed and developing regions each had about
100 cities with 1 million or more residents. By 2010, there will be
more than twice as many million-plus cities in developing regions
as in more developed regions_368 compared with 138, according to UN
projections.
* In Latin America, there are an estimated 20 million "street
children."
* In most African cities, 35 to 50 percent of persons under age 30
are now unemployed, making schooling appear increasingly irrelevant.
* More than 600 million people in urban areas are living in poverty
without adequate shelter, and this number is increasing rapidly. In
some developing country "megacities," 70 percent of urban residents
live in poverty.
* Urban children are more likely now than in 1980 to be born in
poverty, see a parent die or go to prison, suffer child abuse, drop
out of primary school, enter prostitution, or be affected by armed
conflict.
* In cities such as Manila, Bombay, Sao Paulo, and Port-au- Prince,
infant mortality rates are several times higher in slums than in
non-slum areas. Both the size and number of these slums have grown
in recent years.
* Three out of every four urban families (77 percent) in developing
countries will be living in poverty in 2000, up from one in three
(35 percent) in 1975.
((end sidebar))
Martin Brockerhoff is a research associate in the Research
Division of the Population Council in New York. To contact the U.S.
Network for Habitat II, call (202) 879-4286 or e-mail:
habitatnetwk@ igc.apc.org.
******
Turkey
By Stefanie Durbin
Population: 61.4 million
Land area: 297,150 square miles
Births: 23 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 7 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 53 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 1.6 percent per year
Total fertility: 2.7 births per woman
Life expectancy: 64(male)/70(female)
Capital: Ankara
Turkey, the Middle East's most secular Muslim state, is
slightly larger than Texas and borders Greece, Bulgaria, Syria,
Iraq, Iran, Georgia, and Armenia. An ancient civilization that
historically has straddled the cultures of Asia and Europe, today
Turkey is still negotiating the sometimes rough waters that come
with being a secular Islamic
state.
Turkey's population is concentrated in the more affluent and
modernized western region. Over half of the population lives in urban
areas such as Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir.
The ethnic minority Kurdish people, who have been waging a
separatist war against the government of Turkey for 10 years, live
mainly in the impoverished southeast. Estimates of the number of
Kurds vary from 10 to 30 percent of the total population, the rest
of which is composed of ethnic Turks.
The total fertility rate (TFR, or the number of children a
woman will bear in her lifetime based on current rates), is 2.7,
down considerably from 5.2 children per woman in 1975.
But the TFR varies by region (4.4 in the east and 2.0 in the
west) and according to place of residence and level of education.
Rural women and uneducated women have almost one child more than
their urban and better- educated counterparts. Still, most Turkish
women prefer small families, reporting an ideal family size of only
2.4 children in a 1993 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).
Despite economic modernization efforts, Turkey's 1995 rates
of inflation (80 percent) and unemployment (20 percent) were very
high. The government is attempting to brace the sagging economy by
privatizing unprofitable government-run enterprises. On January 1,
1996, Turkey was accepted into a European Union customs-union deal
that will open European markets to Turkish products and business,
and vice versa. Entry promises to move Turkey's economy closer to
Europe's. About half the labor force works in agriculture. Turkey
is virtually self-sufficient in food production.
Turkey is endowed with abundant water resources in its
southeast Anatolia region, where a planned dam and water pipeline
could be a source of energy and political influence in a corner of
the world where water is power.
The outlook for Turkish children has improved in recent years,
but by age five, one in five is physically stunted due to chronic
undernutrition, and only 65 percent of children under age two have
been fully immunized. Infant mortality has dropped 35 percent from
1983 to 1993 (from 82 to 53 deaths per 1,000 births). Mortality
rates for children under age five also declined in this period, from
97 to 61 deaths per 1,000 births. A majority of Turkish mothers
receive prenatal care (63 percent) and medically assisted deliveries
(76 percent).
According to the 1993 DHS, almost all Turkish women know about
family planning and where to obtain contraceptives. Although 63
percent of married women use family planning, withdrawal is the most
prevalent method used (26 percent). Fewer than 25 percent of women
use modern methods, such as the pill (5 percent) or the IUD (19
percent). Abortion is available until the 10th week of pregnancy.
In 1992, 18 of every 100 pregnancies were aborted.
At current rates of growth, Turkey's population will double
in 44 years. Turkey also will confront growing urbanization: it is
projected that 86 percent of Turks will live in cities by 2020, up
from 69 percent in 1995. As Turkey becomes more cosmopolitan, it
will have to cope with many of the same issues other urbanizing
countries face_increasing pollution, provision of adequate housing,
impacts on the environment, and more_issues that will be discussed
at the UN Habitat II conference in Istanbul this June.
******
News and Resources
Family planning method endorsed
A form of family planning for breastfeeding mothers has been
endorsed by WHO and other international scientists and policy-
makers. The Lactational Amenorrhea Method, or LAM, delays pregnancy
because fully breastfeeding mothers do not ovulate.
Use of LAM will help mothers achieve healthy birth spacing,
with the added advantage of boosting maternal and infant health.
Breastfeeding is associated with decreased incidences of breast
cancer. LAM is 98 percent effective if a woman is amenorrheic (not
menstruating), is within the six-month period after childbirth, and
is fully or very nearly fully breast-feeding her infant.
By delaying births, LAM can also help save infant lives. In most of
the world, children born fewer than two years after their older
siblings have greater than twice the risk of dying, compared to
children born more than two years after their siblings.
New HIV test
The HIV Dipstick is a new low-cost, easily performed test for
HIV-1 and HIV-2 for use in developing countries. Developed by PATH,
a Seattle-based nonprofit NGO, the HIV Dipstick costs only U.S.
$0.50, produces results in less than 30 minutes, and can be
performed with limited facilities. WHO tests found the HIV Dipstick
to be highly accurate.
For more information, contact Andrea Spuck, PATH, 4 Nickerson
Street, Seattle, WA 98109; (206) 285-3500; fax: (206) 285- 6619;
e-mail: aspuck@ path.org.
Migration conference in the works
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees is organizing the
Conference on Refugees, Returnees, Displaced Persons and Related
Migratory Movements in the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States)
and Relevant Neighboring States in June 1996. The conference is
intended to put regional issues concerning migration on the agendas
of the international community, policy- makers, and donors. A
preparatory conference is scheduled for March or April. For more
information, contact Open Society Institute, 888 Seventh Ave., 27th
floor, New York, NY 10106; (212) 887-0655; fax: (212) 489-8455;
e-mail: refugee@sorosny.org.
New Books
Sexual Coercion and Reproductive Health: A Focus on Research.
Lori Heise, Kirsten Moore, and Nahid Toubia. New York: The
Population Council, 1995. 95 pages. Free.
Family, Gender, and Population in the Middle East: Policies
in Context. Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, ed. Cairo: The American
University in Cairo Press, 1995. 260 pages. $22.00 paper. ISBN:
977-424-368-4.
Curbing Population Growth. Oscar Harkavy. New York: Plenum
Press, 1995. 274 pages. $39.50 cloth. ISBN: 0-306- 45050-X.
Young v. Old: Generational Combat in the 21st Century. Susan
A. MacManus. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996. 302 pages. $21.95
paper. ISBN: 0-8133-1759-2.
Geography's Inner Worlds: Pervasive Themes in Contemporary
American Geography. Ronald F. Abler et al., eds. New Brunswick, NJ:
Rutgers University Press, 1992. 412 pages. $17.95 paper. ISBN:
0-8135-1830-X.
Household Demography and Household Modeling. Evert van Imhoff
et al. New York: Plenum Press, 1995. 369 pages. $49.50
cloth. ISBN: 0-306-45187-5.
The Onset of Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Therese Locoh and Veronique Hertrich, eds. Liege, Belgium: IUSSP,
1994. 308 pages. $35.00. ISBN: 2-87040-050-0.
Eco-Justice: Linking Human Rights and the Environment. Aaron
Sachs. Washington, DC: World- watch Institute, 1995. 68
pages. $5.00 paper. ISBN: 1-878071-29-7.
Global Comparative Assessments in the Health Sector: Disease
Burden, Expenditures and Intervention Packages. C.J.L. Murray and
A.D. Lopez. Geneva: WHO, 1994. 196 pages. $18.00. ISBN:
92-4-156175-0.
Household Composition in Latin America. Susan M. De Vos. New
York: Plenum Publishing Co., 1995. 251 pages. $39.50 cloth. ISBN:
0-306-44962-5. Migration and the New Europe. Kimberly A. Hamilton,
ed. Washington, DC: CSIS, 1994. 95 pages. $16.00 paper. ISBN: 0-
89206-214-2.
Logics of Dislocation: Models, Metaphors, and Meanings of
Economic Space. Trevor J. Barnes. New York: The Guilford Press,
1996. 292 pages. $19.95 paper. ISBN: 1-57230-039-6.