UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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Population Today
January 1995
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy of
Population Today have not been included here. For a complete copy
of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population Reference Bureau,
1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009.
Demographic Upheavals in the Former USSR
By Carl Haub
Along with stunning political and economic changes, the independent
republics that once made up the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
(USSR) are experiencing major changes in fertility and life
expectancy, leading in many places to population decline.
Before 1991, the USSR was the third-most populous country,
and one of the fastest-growing developed countries in the world. In
the mid-1980s, its population was increasing at 0.9 percent per
year. This rate compares with 1.1 percent for the United State
s, but only 0.1 percent for Europe. The USSR's faster growth
resulted from a somewhat higher birth rate than that in the United
States, although this was offset by a higher death rate.
Immigration played a very limited role in the USSR's population
growth picture.
Previously, demographers expected that population growth
would continue even in the European portion of the USSR for the
foreseeable future. But the situation has changed dramatically.
In 1993, the population of no less than eight of the 15
former republics declined because of falling birth rates and
emigration. During 1993, there were more deaths than births in
Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, and Latvia. The third Baltic
state, Lithuania, joined the group during the first nine months of
1994.
Since the breakup of the former Soviet Union, population
information has not been uniformly available. The last full census
was held in 1989. More recent information has been available from
a variety of sources, including statistical yearbooks, unpubli
shed data reported to international agencies, and unpublished
updates received directly by PRB from country statistical offices.
Fertility drops have been dramatic. In Russia, the total
fertility rate (TFR, or the average number of births per woman)
fell from 1.9 children in 1990 to 1.4 children in 1993. Fertility
has fallen to very low levels in the other European republics. The
TFR is down sharply to 1.7 in Lithuania, 1.6 in Ukraine, 1.5 in
Latvia, and 1.4 in Estonia.
Also declining were Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan,
where emigration to Russia and elsewhere (Europe, the United
States, and Israel) of mostly Slavic residents has caused
population decline. Fully 25 million people of Russian descent live
in the so-called "near abroad"--outside Russia in other former
Soviet republics. The proportion of residents of the "titular
nationality" in former republics ranges from 93 percent for
Armenians in Armenia to only 40 percent for Kazakhs in Kazakhstan.
In Kazakhstan between 1992 and 1993, there were 160,000
more births than deaths. However, the country also had 200,000 more
emigrants than immigrants, tipping the balance toward population
loss. In the Baltics, Estonia reported a net emigration of 90,000
people in the past five years, and Latvia reported a net emigration
of 70,000 in the past two years.
The central Asian republics, where birth rates tend to be
higher than those in the European republics, were experiencing slow
fertility declines before the breakup. Now, those declines are
accelerating. In Kyrgyzstan, the TFR is now only 3.3 children per
woman, dropping from 3.7 in 1990. Tajikistan's TFR tumbled from 5.5
in 1991 to 4.3 in 1993.
Along with these dramatic changes have come equally
significant declines in life expectancy. New 1993 data from Russia
show that life expectancy at birth for males is only 58.9 years, by
far the lowest for any developed country. Male life expectancy had
been 63.8 years as recently as 1990. In Russia, about half the drop
in life expectancy is attributable to increases in circulatory
diseases and about one-fourth to increases in external causes, such
as accidents, alcohol poisoning, murder, and suicide.
The life expectancy for a newborn baby boy in Russia is fully
13 years less than that of a girl. (In the United States, the
gender gap in life expectancy is seven years.)
Infant mortality is also worsening in Russia, rising from
17.4 to 20.0 infant deaths per 1,000 live births between 1990 and
1993. In Ukraine, it rose from 12.9 to 14.1 between 1990 and 1992.
In other republics, decreases in life expectancy have not been as
sharp. In Ukraine, life expectancy fell from 66 years for males in
1989-1990 to 64 years in 1992-1993. For females during that period,
life expectancy fell from 75 to 74 years.
Russia's population is now experiencing natural decrease. Its
January 1994 population of 148.4 million is 300,000 less than a
year earlier. Deaths outnumbered births by 700,000 in 1993.
Population decline was partially offset by returning military and
ethnic Russian emigrants from other former Soviet republics.
The effects of change have major implications for Russian
institutions. There were 2.4 million births in 1985, but only 1.4
million in 1993. This baby bust means that there will be far fewer
students in Russian schools and fewer entrants into the labor
force to support pensioners in an aging Russian society.
The demographic changes of the 1990s are taking place
against a background of economic and social upheaval. Previously,
the economies of the 15 republics of the USSR were interwoven.
Russia and the republics of Central Asia supplied oil and gas to
the others at below-market prices. The factories of Belarus and
fields of Uzbekistan found a ready market for their trucks and
cotton in Russia and the other republics. The difficult task of
"privatizing" formerly centrally planned economies has moved in
fits and starts--progressing fairly well in Russia, much less so in
Belarus and Ukraine. In many areas of the former USSR, inflation is
at record highs and thousands of factories have closed. The
uncertain outlook has resulted in falling birth rates. Progress
toward a stable economy is likely to play a key role in couples'
childbearing decisions. Civil unrest, sparked by local ethnic
differences, is another element of instability in Georgia,
Azerbaijan, Moldova, and Tajikistan.
The breakup of the USSR has also focused attention on the
ethnic makeup of the republics. In Latvia and Estonia--two Baltic
countries with a large proportion of residents who are not of the
titular ethnicity--there are movements to make full
citizenship contingent on some knowledge of the national language
and culture. An increase in anti-Russian sentiment could boost
emigration flows from former Soviet republics into Russia.
Prospects are uncertain. Will a long period of greatly
depressed birth rates and worsening mortality cause prolonged
population decline? The answers to this question, being played out
in today's news events, will alter the former Soviet Union's
population trends for the next decade. All that is clear is that
the former USSR's demographic prospects are different from what
they were only a few short years ago.
For more information see "Population Change in the Former Soviet
Republics," by Carl Haub, Population Bulletin 49, No. 4, December
1994. Cost: $7 each, bulk discounts available. To order, call
1-800-877-9881.
*****
State-by-State Data on Crime, AIDS, Aging
By Jessica Teisch
Which states have the highest crime rates? Which report the
highest rates of new AIDS cases? Which have the heaviest
concentration of older residents? Which are expected to grow the
most? The just-released 11th edition of PRB's United States
Population Data Sheet answers these questions in a quick-reference
format.
Crime
Rates of serious crime--including murder, aggravated
assault, burglary, arson, and rape--are highest in the populous
states of the Sunbelt. Many of these states have large urban
centers, such as Miami, Fort Worth, Dallas, Atlanta, and Los
Angeles, with high crime rates. In 1992, Florida reported 8,358
cases of serious crime per 100,000 people, Texas 7,085, Arizona
7,029, and California 6,680. The completely urban District of
Columbia reported 11,407 serious crimes per 100,000 people. States
with the next-highest crime rates are Louisiana, New Mexico,
Georgia, Maryland, Nevada, and Washington.
At the lowest end of the serious crime spectrum is West
Virginia, with only about 2,610 serious crimes per 100,000
population. North Dakota had 2,903; South Dakota 2,999; New
Hampshire 3,081, and Kentucky 3,324. These states range from 51
percent to 53 percent urban. States with the next-lowest crime
rates were Pennsylvania, Vermont, Maine, Iowa, and Idaho.
AIDS
The rates of new AIDS cases reported by the states range
from the District of Columbia, with 274 new AIDS cases per 100,000
population, to North Dakota, with only 1.7. The U.S. rate is 40.1.
Following the District of Columbia, states with high AIDS rate
s are New York (with 96.0 cases per 100,000 population), Florida
(79.9), New Jersey (69.0), and California (59.9).
The lowest rates of new AIDS cases were found in Montana,
South Dakota, West Virginia, and Idaho. A new, expanded definition
of AIDS was adopted by the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention in 1993, so reported cases are more than double those in
the previous year.
Aging
The states differ dramatically in their age structures.
Alaska is the youngest state, with just 4.3 percent of the
population age 65 and over; Florida is the oldest, at 18.6 percent.
The United States as a whole has 12.7 percent older people.
Population aging is also reflected in the ratio of births
to deaths. The 1993 total U.S. figure was 182 births for every 100
deaths. West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arkansas, and Maine
all ranked low on this index--below 140 births per 100 deaths.
In contrast, Alaska, Utah, Hawaii, California, and Texas all
ranked 240 or above on this measure.
Growth outlook
Overall, the population of the United States is projected to
grow by about one-fourth by the year 2020, according to the Census
Bureau. Regionally, population growth between now and the year 2020
is anticipated to continue most heavily in the Sunbelt. T
he Census Bureau projects that the West will increase its
population by half and the South by almost one-third.
California, Nevada, Washington, and Hawaii are all
projected to grow by slightly more than half. The slowest-growing
states are West Virginia, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Rhode
Island, Michigan, Connecticut, and the District of Columbia. None
of these states are projected to grow by more than 10 percent by
2020.
Table: Serious Crime in the States: Highest and Lowest Rates
Serious crime
per 100,000
State population, 1992
United States 5,560
Top 10
1. District of Columbia 11,407
2. Florida 8,358
3. Texas 7,085
4. Arizona 7,029
5. California 6,680
6. Louisiana 6,547
7. New Mexico 6,434
8. Georgia 6,405
9. Maryland 6,225
10. Nevada 6,204
Lowest 10
1. West Virginia 2,610
2. North Dakota 2,903
3. South Dakota 2,999
4. New Hampshire 3,081
5. Kentucky 3,324
6. Pennsylvania 3,393
7. Vermont 3,410
8. Maine 3,324
9. Iowa 3,957
10. Idaho 3,996
Source: Population Reference Bureau, United States Population Data
Sheet, 11th edition, December 1994.
*****
Reproductive Health Problems Loom in LDCs
For women in developing countries, disease and injury related to
sexuality and childbearing remain a major health threat, according
to recent reports from PATH (Program for Appropriate Technology in
Health) and the World Bank.
At any given time, women in less developed countries (LDCs)
are more likely than not to have at least one reproductive health
problem that could be treated by a primary health provider or
addressed through counseling and referral, according to "Women's
Reproductive Health: The Role of Family Planning Programs," a PATH
report.
Among diseases for which cost-effective interventions
exist--either treatments or preventive measures--reproductive
health problems dominate the death and disability picture for women
of childbearing age (ages 15 to 44). For women in this age group,
reproductive health disorders account for the majority of the
disease burden, which is a measure of healthy years lost because of
disability or premature death(see graph).
A study of 650 rural women in India found that more than
half reported specific gynecological complaints. Clinical
examination found that more than 90 percent had one or more
gynecological disorders, including menstrual complaints, vaginal
discharge, and urinary tract complaints. A study of 509 nonpregnant
women in rural Egypt found that 52 percent had a reproductive tract
infection, 56 percent had some form of uterine prolapse, 14 percent
had a urinary tract infection, and 11 percent had an abnormal
Pap smear.
Major reproductive health problems continue as women age
past menopause. For example cervical cancer, which is linked to
reproductive tract infections and to early and frequent
childbearing, is a relatively common condition, striking about
400,000 women in developing countries each year.
The worldwide increase in sexually transmitted diseases
(STDs), including HIV/AIDS, has hit women in developing countries
particularly hard. For example, women are twice as likely as men to
develop gonorrhea from contact with an infected sex partner. It is
estimated that some 250 million new STD infections occur each year.
The World Health Organization estimates that by the year 2000, some
14 million women (plus 17 million men and 45 million children) will
be infected with HIV.
Even when care is available, many women with an STD or
other reproductive tract infection do not seek help. Women may not
fully understand the risks they are exposed to, may not be aware of
or may misinterpret symptoms, and may be deterred from a visit
to an STD clinic by social stigma. Nine men for every one woman
visit STD clinics.
Pregnancy--too frequent or mistimed--is a key risk factor.
It is estimated that if all women who wanted to control their
fertility had access to safe and effective contraception, maternal
mortality would drop by as much as half--through reducing mortality
from of pregnancy, delivery, and unsafe abortion.
Women clearly need greater access to reproductive health
services along with family planning services, the report concludes.
Ideally, reproductive health services would include routine
gynecological care, perinatal care, family planning services,
cancer screening, STD/AIDS services, nutritional supplementation,
and other age-appropriate services.
Adapted from "Women's Reproductive Health: The Role of Family
Planning Programs," Jacqueline Sherris et al., Outlook, vol. 12,
no. 2, August 1994, PATH, 206-285-3500.
*****
Population Growth Changes Targets for Immunization
By Shripad Tuljapurkar and A. Meredith John
The faster the rate of population growth in a developing
country, the less likely it is that current immunization protocols
will lead to the eradication of the classic childhood diseases,
such as measles, rubella, and mumps.
One important reason is that standard protocols concerning
the timing and percentage of children to be immunized do not take
into account the rapid rates of population growth in developing
countries. The population is growing at an average of 3.0 percent
per year in sub-Saharan African countries, and at 2.0 percent or
faster on average in the rest of Africa, in Latin America, and in
Asia (excluding China). Growth rates rise to 3.5 percent or more in
a few countries, such as Cote d'Ivoire, Togo, Iran, and Syria.
This growth means that the health system must deliver immunization
services to ever-increasing numbers of children each year. But most
public health planning models in this area were created in
countries where the infant population was static. New research
supported by the National Institute of Child Health and
Development, based on modeling that takes population growth and the
actual age range of vaccination into account, is providing a more
realistic picture of immunization needs in developing countries.
The target age for successful immunization is generally
considered to be a three-month "immunization window"--beginning at
age six months. From birth to six months, maternal antibodies tend
to protect an infant from many childhood diseases. But the presence
of maternal antibodies also prevents vaccinations from taking
effect by triggering the production of the child's own antibodies.
The World Health Organization advises vaccinating 85 percent
or more of children from six to nine months old. The reasoning is
that most of these children will have lost maternal antibodies, so
the vaccination will take. For those few not successfully
vaccinated, it is assumed they will be protected by what is called
herd immunity (the likelihood that an individual child will
encounter the disease is slight since most children are immunized).
But in practice, the developing-country health campaigns
may have an age-of-immunization window of a year or more, so there
are more susceptible children around than assumed by models. Rapid
population growth adds a larger number of susceptible babies each
year.
The wider the age range over which immunizations are
delivered, the higher the percentage of children who must be
immunized to achieve disease eradication (see chart).
Moreover, the critical proportion of each birth cohort that
must be immunized rises as the growth rate of the population
increases. Consider a country with a 36-month immunization window.
At zero population growth, 94 percent of children must be vaccina
ted to eradicate a disease. But that figure rises to 98 percent at
population growth rates of over 3 percent per year. Indeed, the
idea of eradicating disease in a developing country without
vaccinating every single child may be unrealistic.
See Age Patterns of Immunization and the Myth of Herd Immunity, by
Shripad D. Tuljapurkar and A. Meredith John. Contact: Shripad
Tuljapurkar, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford
University, Stanford, CA 94305, 415-723-6929.
*****
Papua New Guinea
Population: 4 million
Land area: 178,704 square miles
Births: 35 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 12 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 72 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 2.3 percent per year
Total fertility: 5.4 children per woman
Life expectancy: 54(male)/56(female)
Capital city: Port Moresby
By Jessica Teisch
With Indonesia to the east and the northernmost tip of
Australia to the south, Papua New Guinea comprises the eastern part
of New Guinea, the earth's second largest island, as well as a
group of 600 smaller islands, including the Bismarck Archipelago.
Papua New Guinea is seasonally warm and monsoonal, with
dense tropical forests and grassland valleys, habitats for unique
marsupials. Volcanic mountain ridges divide the mainland. The
country has rich deposits of copper, gold, other metals, and some
petroleum and gas. Papua New Guinea is about 85 percent rural.
In prehistoric times, nomadic peoples probably crossed from Asia to
Australia and dispersed to surrounding islands. Many of today's
indigenous inhabitants descend from Melanesians, a group composed
of 1,000 tribes and speaking an estimated 742 languages.
Currently, Pidgin and standard English are the languages of
commerce. Indigenous peoples, who outnumber nonnatives (mostly
settlers from Australia and Indonesia) almost 50 to 1, rely on
subsistence farming and hunting.
Papua New Guinea was formed when the Territory of Papua,
under Australian rule from 1906 to 1949, merged with the Trust
Territory of New Guinea, a former German possession. Australia
administered the territory until independence in 1975.
The national government has legislative, executive, and
judicial branches. The single-chamber national parliament is
elected by universal suffrage. Parliament advises on the
appointment and dismissal of the prime minister, but the official
head of state is Queen Elizabeth of the United Kingdom, represented
in the country by a governor general. Twenty provincial governments
and 160 local government councils monitor more than 460 "aid posts"
(local agencies for health and welfare systems), hospitals,
schools, transport, and markets.
The economy is based largely on mining and agriculture.
Copper mining, which went through a period of unrest in 1989,
accounted for half of export earnings in 1990. Agriculture accounts
for about 40 percent of exports, with products such as coffee, timb
er, cocoa, palm oil, and copra. In the past decade, the country has
started to export petroleum. The 1992 per capita GNP measured
US$950, higher than most African countries. Men outnumber women in
the paid labor force by two to one.
Formal education is free but not compulsory. Sixty-five
percent of primary-age children attend primary school, but only 15
percent attend secondary school.
With an average of 5.4 children per family and more than 40
percent of the population under 15 years old, Papua New Guinea has
a rapidly growing population. At the current growth rate of 2.3
percent per year, the population would double within 30 years.
The country's first family planning clinic was established in
Port Moresby in 1962. The number of users has increased steadily.
In 1990, 18 percent of women of reproductive age were using
contraceptives. A range of contraceptives is available, including
injectables, IUDs, pills, and vasectomies.
Papua New Guinea has a high infant mortality rate: 72 per
1,000 live births. The life expectancy for inhabitants, 54 for men
and 56 for women, remains among the lowest in the world.
*****
Congressional elections change key players
The conservative landslide in the 1994 congressional
elections could bring major changes in U.S. population policy and
foreign population assistance.
Advocates foresee the possibility of less support for
foreign aid in general and family planning funding in particular.
One key change is that Sen. Jesse Helms (R-NC)--who has long taken
an adversarial stance toward the role of the U.S. Agency for Inter
national Development, which administers most U.S. overseas family
planning assistance--will become chair of the Foreign Relations
Committee. He will replace Sen. Claiborne Pell (D-RI), a supporter
of population funding. Also, ally of population funding
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) lost his post as chair of the Senate
Subcommittee on Foreign Operations of the Senate Appropriations
Committee.
Source: Interview with Victoria Markell of Population
Action International.
PRB internships and fellowships
PRB is accepting applications for three programs for the
1995-1996 academic year. Deadline for application is February 28,
1995. Decisions are made by mid-April and notification given by
mail.
International Programs Fellowship.
Starting June or July of 1995, these 12-month fellowships are part
of PRB's Cooperative Agreement with the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID). The fellows will work at PRB or
USAID on population materials for policymakers in developing
countries.
* Academic Year (9-month) Internship. Starting in August or
September 1995, the intern will assist staff on various projects
concerning population-related issues and public policies.
* Summer (3-month) Internship. Beginning in May or June of
1995, the intern will aid PRB staff on domestic and/or
international projects.
To receive further details on application guidelines,
qualifications, duties, and remuneration, contact: Internship
Program, Population Reference Bureau, Inc., 1875 Connecticut
Avenue, NW, Suite 520, Washington, DC 20009-5728.
Upcoming conferences
The Census Bureau's 1995 Annual Research Conference (ARC)
will be held March 19-22, 1995, at the Key Bridge Marriott in
Arlington Virginia. Contact: Ms. Maxine Anderson-Brown, ARC
Conference Coordinator, Office of the Director, Bureau of the
Census, Washington, DC 20233, 301-456-2308.
The Population Association of America's 1995 annual meeting
will take place April 6-8, at the Hyatt Regency Embarcadero, San
Francisco, CA. Contact: PAA, 1722 N Street, N.W., Washington, DC
20036, 202-429-0891.
The Southern Demographic Association is calling for papers
to be presented at the 1995 annual meeting to be held October
19-21, in Richmond, VA. Deadline for abstracts is June 1. Contact
Joachim Singelmann, Department of Sociology and Rural Sociology,
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, 504-388-1646.
New Books
Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old
and Promote Growth, by the World Bank. New York: Oxford University
Press, 1994. 402 pages. $19.95. ISBN 0-19-520996-6.
Dynamics in Marriage and Cohabitation: An Inter-temporal,
Life Course Analysis of First Union Formation and Dissolution, by
Dorein Manting. Amsterdam: Thesis Publishers/PDOD, 1994. 224 pages.
ISBN 90-5170-295-7.
How Many Americans? Population, Immigration, and the
Environment, by Leon F. Bouvier and Lindsey Grant. San Francisco,
Sierra Club Books, 1994. 174 pages. $18.00 ISBN 0- 87156-496-3.
Population and the Environment: Rethinking the Debate, by
Lourdes Arizpe, M.P. Stone, and D.C. Major, eds., Boulder, CO:
Westview Press, 1994. 352 pages. $29.85. ISBN 0-8133-8843-0.
Population and Income Change: Recent Evidence, by Allen C.
Kelley and Robert M. Schmidt. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1994.
116 pages. $9.95. ISBN 0-8213-2956-1.
Women and Work, by Susan Bullock. London: Zed Books, 1994.
160 pages. $15.75. ISBN 1-85649-118-8.
Modernizing the U.S. Census, Barry Edmonston and Charles
Schultz, eds. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1995. 460 pp.
$45.00. ISBN 0-309-05182-7.