UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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This newsletter is being made available by the Population Information
Network (POPIN) of the United Nations Population Division (DESIPA),
in collaboration with the Population Reference Bureau and with funding
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Population Today
Monthly newsletter of the Population Reference Bureau
February 1996, Vol 24, No. 2
Please note: The graphics that appeared in the printed copy of
Population Today have not been included here. For a complete
copy of Population Today, send $2.00 to Population Reference
Bureau,1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C.
20009.
In this issue: ** Black History Month: A Look at the Trends
Shaping African Americans' Future ** Men and Family Planning:
Focus on Egypt ** China's "Missing Girls": Prospects and
Policy ** Spotlight on the United Kingdom **
Black History Month:
A Look at the Trends Shaping African Americans' Future
By Kimberly Crews
Last fall's Million Man March in Washington, DC_which
received extensive media attention_has brought new energy to
African American organizations as numerous blacks nationwide
have rededicated themselves to improving their families and
communities.
This month the National Association for the Advancement
of Colored People (NAACP), the nation's largest and oldest
civil rights organization, will have a new leader_U.S.
Representative Kweisi Mfume of Maryland. Like many other
African American organizations, the NAACP is mobilizing to
address the political, social, economic, and civil rights
challenges of the 21st century.
These groups "need to balance historical, contemporary
and future perspectives in their decision-making calculus,"
says Lenneal Henderson, President of the National Conference
of Black Political Scientists. He joined several other
prominent social scientists to describe the key demographic
trends that black leaders must take into account as they
strategize for the future.
"There is not one black community, there are many. It's
not a simple picture," said Margaret C. Simms, director of
research programs at the Joint Center of Political and
Economic Studies.
William P. O'Hare, senior associate at the Annie E.
Casey Foundation, noted that the civil rights movement
generated opportunities for some blacks, helping them move
into the middle class and increasingly out of central cities.
At the same time, reduced opportunities for the urban poor
have led to increased joblessness and poverty among urban
blacks.
The proportion of black households with incomes over
$35,000 reached 30 percent in 1994, up from 24 percent in 1970
(in 1994 dollars). At the same time, the share of black
households with incomes below $15,000 remained constant (39
percent in 1970 compared to 38 percent in 1994).
Changes in family structure
The national trend toward childbearing and childrearing
outside the two-parent family has had a dramatic impact on
African American families. The proportion of all U.S. children
living with just one parent more than doubled from 12 percent
in 1970 to 27 percent in 1993. For blacks, that proportion
increased from 32 to 58 percent (an 82 percent increase).
By 1993, only one in three black children lived in
households with both parents, a cause for alarm, said Reynolds
Farley, a research scientist at the University of Michigan's
Population Studies Center. "Single-parent households are at a
higher risk of being below the poverty level and having low
income," he said (see table).
O'Hare echoed Farley's concerns. Both stressed that
there is no mechanism to replace the time and money a second
parent can contribute to a family household. "The welfare
system helps sustain people while they are poor, but it does
not lift people out of poverty," said O'Hare.
Educational gains
Education is key to keeping households out of poverty.
Black males ages 25 to 34 who complete college earn on average
83 percent more than high school graduates.
"A historical perspective is needed to appreciate the
tremendous educational gains blacks have made over the past
half-century," said Simms.
In 1940, blacks ages 25 to 34 completed 6.9 years of
school compared to 10.4 for whites. By 1960 the gap had begun
to close to 10.3 for blacks and 12.3 for whites. By 1975 the
gap had closed almost completely; median schooling was 12.4
years for blacks compared to 12.8 for whites.
College completion rates also have risen, but the gap
between blacks and whites has widened. In 1960, 4 percent of
young blacks had completed college compared to 12 percent of
whites. In 1994, 17 percent of blacks ages 25 to 34 had
completed college compared to 30 percent of whites in that age
group.
Progress on this front suffered a setback in the 1980s.
In the late 1970s black and white high school graduates were
equally likely to attend college; but in the 1980s college
enrollment for blacks slipped while rates for whites continued
to climb. By 1991 black enrollment rates rebounded to 1977
levels (48 percent), but white enrollment rates rose to nearly
two-thirds (65 percent).
Cuts in student aid for minorities and the skyrocketing
costs of college tuition may explain some of the decline in
college attendance by blacks, according to O'Hare. "Blacks
have fewer assets to help with college costs," he said.
Even after obtaining a college degree, blacks are more
likely to be at a financial disadvantage; in 1993 the median
income for whites with at least a bachelor's degree was
$42,500, while the median income for blacks was $27,800.
Income stagnation
Incomes for black households have stagnated since the
early 1970s. In 1994 the median income for black households
(after adjusting for inflation) was $21,000, compared to
$19,400 in 1980 and $19,900 in 1970. These median income
figures mask growing generational differences. While the
incomes of older black families increased, the incomes of
young families declined. Between 1970 and 1992 black families
with household heads ages 45 to 54 experienced a 22 percent
increase in income, while black families with heads ages 25 to
34 experienced a 2 percent income decline. The growth in
single-parent families pulled more black families into the
lowest income groups.
"Some of the rise in single-parent families can be
attributed to the declining salaries for young men,
particularly those without advanced education and training,"
said Farley. "Many young men with only a high school education
cannot afford to support a family, making them less attractive
as marriage partners."
Looking ahead
By 2010 Hispanics are projected to outnumber blacks. By
2050, Hispanics are expected to be 21 percent of the U.S.
population, blacks 15 percent, and Asians 10 percent.
"Relative political clout of blacks may decline as Hispanic
and Asian populations increase," said Farley.
But the numbers do not tell the whole story, Farley and
Henderson noted. African Americans have invested in developing
political leadership and constitute a strong political force.
The percentage of blacks who vote and participate in politics
is higher than for Hispanics and Asians, many of whom are
immigrants.
"Understanding how these social and demographic trends
affect African Americans can help community leaders be more
effective on the local level," said Henderson.
*****
Men and Family Planning: Focus on Egypt
By Farzaneh (Nazy) Roudi and Lori S. Ashford
In most parts of the world, men hold the power to
influence societal thinking. As pointed out in the Cairo
Programme of Action and underscored by the Beijing Women's
Conference, men must play a decisive role if gender
disparities are to be eliminated. Programs designed to elevate
women's status are unlikely to succeed if they do not have the
backing of men.
Population policies and programs now are paying special
attention to the role men can play in easing women's domestic
burdens. These programs are encouraging men to take a more
active part in all aspects of family life: attending to
children's health, nutrition, and education; practicing family
planning; providing economic support; and caring for their
own_as well as their partners'_reproductive health.
The growing prevalence of AIDS and other sexually
transmitted diseases has increased the importance of programs
for men because the major methods of prevention_the condom and
abstinence_both require men's cooperation. But new
communication strategies are needed to ensure that family
planning information reaches men. Experience has shown that
men are hesitant to seek out information and services,
especially since most existing family planning programs were
designed for women.
The results of a 1992 Demographic and Health Survey in
Egypt shed some light on male attitudes and behaviors in a
country where family planning programs have focused primarily
on women and female methods of contraception. In 1964, Egypt,
the largest Arab country, was among the first developing
countries to officially support family planning.
Egypt succeeded in lowering its total fertility rate
from 7 children per woman in the early 1960s to 3.9 children
per woman in the early 1990s.
But Egypt's population has doubled since the 1960s and
government planners see rapid population growth as a
significant obstacle to the country's social and economic
development. Currently about half of all Egyptian couples
practice family planning, a level that has stagnated in recent
years.
The 1992 survey gathered detailed information about
men's knowledge, attitudes, and practice of family planning.
The survey found that men overwhelmingly (87 percent) approved
of the use of family planning. This approval did not vary much
among men of different age groups or education levels, or
between rural and urban residence. These findings suggest that
Egypt's family planning campaign has helped create positive
attitudes toward family planning.
While most Egyptian men approved of family planning, few
were using a male method (condom, male sterilization,
withdrawal, or periodic abstinence). Of the 50 percent of
married Egyptian couples practicing family planning, the vast
majority used a female method (see figure), primarily the IUD
(30 percent) or the pill (14 percent). Less than 5 percent
were using a male method. Male sterilization (vasectomy) was
so rare in Egypt that statistically reliable estimates of its
prevalence could not be obtained. More than 18 percent of
married men surveyed, however, told researchers that they had
used a male method of contraception in the past.
Egyptian men were more familiar with female family
planning methods than male methods. Interviewers read a
description of each method and asked if the respondent had
ever heard of the method. Almost all men surveyed had heard of
IUDs and the pill, but fewer than three-quarters had heard of
condoms and only one- quarter knew what a vasectomy was.
Sixty percent of the men indicated that they wanted no
more children. This suggests that Egypt's family planning
program may find men receptive to male methods.
As in many developing countries, the survey demonstrates the
need for better-targeted information on family planning and
related issues.
DHS data on males in 17 countries in Demographic and
Health Surveys Comparative Studies, no. 18, "Men's Fertility,
Contraceptive Use, and Reproductive Preferences" (Macro
International Inc., Calverton, MD) forthcoming, 1996. PRB is
producing a chartbook on African male attitudes and
involvement in family planning, forthcoming 1996.
*****
China's "Missing Girls": Prospects and Policies
By Nancy E. Riley
Ever since the Chinese Communists promised to make women
equal partners in the revolution, the country has been closely
watched for its record on women's status. Possibly no state
action has more directly affected women's lives than the "one-
child" policy, which limits urban families to a single child
but allows as many as two or three children to rural families.
Limiting family size in a society with a traditional
preference for sons inevitably increases pressures for that
one child to be a boy. The result has been the phenomenon of
the "missing girls": a significant imbalance in the number of
girls and female infants relative to boys. This phenomenon
has been noticeable for some years and is increasing. A normal
ratio would be 105 to 106 boys born for every 100 girls (a
natural imbalance that compensates for higher male mortality).
In China there are 113.8 boys reported at birth for every 100
girls, and in some provinces, the sex ratio is well over 115
to 100.1 Some 12 percent of baby girls are unaccounted for
each year, the victims of some combination of sex-selective
abortion, abandonment, infanticide, or under- reporting.
It is unlikely that the government could have foreseen
such an outcome when it began the "one-child" policy in 1979,
but it can be faulted for failing to respond effectively to
the phenomenon once it became evident. The government opposes
female infanticide and sex-selective abortion, but the most
commonly heard argument against these practices is that before
long there won't be enough wives to go around. Such an
argument seems to miss the real point. It does nothing to
challenge Chinese society's fundamental ambivalence about the
value of women.
Whether the government should abandon the present form
of its population control program is a controversial issue.
But many inside and outside China have argued that other
social changes, including creating a pension system for people
in rural areas and promoting higher levels of education for
girls, might decrease both sex ratios and fertility levels and
make girls more acceptable to their families. Indeed, the
government's recently announced five-year plan to improve
women's status and stop abuses acknowledged the effect these
kinds of reforms might have on reducing female infanticide.
Two steps forward; one step back
Women have made notable gains in Chinese society in
recent decades. One of the most frequently cited measures of
women's status is their level of participation in the labor
force. Here China stands out among nations across the globe
(see table). In urban areas, 90 percent of women of working
age are currently employed. In rural areas too, nearly all
women work.
Chinese women also rank fairly high when their
participation in public arenas is compared with women in other
societies: Over 30 percent of government officials are women.
But only about 10 percent of officials above the county level
are women, and there are even fewer women at the very top
levels of government. This is a cause of concern, and was one
of the key points in the new five-year plan.
Women's access to health care is better in China than in
other developing countries: nearly all births (94 percent) are
now attended by medical personnel; female life expectancy (72
years, compared to men's 69 years) continues to rise; and
maternal mortality (95 deaths per 100,000 live births) is much
lower than in other developing countries.
Despite these accomplishments, the goal of equality has not
been met. Within the labor force, women are subordinate to men
in ways that are similar to those in most societies. In urban
areas, women tend to be clustered in certain segments of the
labor force, such as textiles and service jobs, while men tend
to work in heavy industry. In rural areas, women are likely to
hold less prestigious and lower-paying jobs, and often are
tied to agricultural labor where they are better able to
combine work and child care. In both rural and urban settings,
men are more likely to hold positions of leadership and
responsibility. Women are less likely to be promoted than
their male peers and also are subject to mandatory retirement
five years younger than males.
Women's extensive participation but subordinate position
in the labor force is mirrored in their role in families. The
"double day" of women is nearly universally recognized in
China; women put in a full day at their paid jobs and come
home to near-total responsibility for household and child-care
tasks. In urban Shandong province, for example, women tend to
be responsible for such tasks as cooking, laundry,
housecleaning, and child care, tasks that require daily
attention; men are likely to take responsibility for tasks
that are done less frequently, such as the purchase of fuel or
grain.2 Although the government broadcasts regular admonitions
to men to help their wives at home, and reports suggest that
some men have begun to contribute at home, women continue to
be seen as the primary (and often only) person taking care of
home and family. Women in both urban and rural areas report
that they put in longer hours of work and have fewer hours of
leisure than do their male counterparts.
Women are being educated at vastly greater rates than
they were in the past: In 1987, 88 percent of rural women over
the age of 45 were illiterate, while only 6 percent of the 15-
to 19-year-olds were illiterate. Yet among young people, women
have much higher rates of illiteracy than do men. Recent
census data indicate that more than 70 percent of the 15- to
19-year-olds who are illiterate or semiliterate are women.3
Among high school graduates, males have a better chance of
entering a university than do females_a gender gap that has
not decreased significantly since the 1970s.4 The reasons are
several: within schools, girls are treated differently than
boys, given less encouragement, and steered toward certain
professions and away from others.
Prospects for change
Women appear to be faring worse, not better, in the wake
of recent economic changes. Chinese urban factories and other
places of employment previously controlled by the state are
now freer to hire, promote, and fire without government
interference. With company profits now closely tied to
production output, employers are reluctant to hire women, with
their needs for maternity benefits and child-care provisions.
Foreign factories, though offering access to both cash and
cosmopolitan values, may be even more concerned with the
bottom line. Thus, women in China are increasingly exposed to
the low wages, poor working conditions, and discrimination
based on sex, age, and marital status that women face in most
free-market economies.
In rural areas, the break up of state-run collectives
began in the early 1980s and now is nearly complete.
Agricultural labor is now organized through the family, and
women are once again subject to patriarchal family controls.
Redistribution of land from collective to family is often done
through a system that automatically awards men more land than
women.
Even China's growing economy has brought with it
increased dangers for women. General economic stability and
higher standards of living for most mean that few families
face the kinds of financial crises that forced families in the
past to relinquish, sell, or kill their girls. But these
positive economic changes have been accompanied by the
increasing availability of cash and the growing interest in
making money that are behind the reported rise in the
abduction and sale of women for prostitution, marriage, and
slavery.
For real change to come, state policies must move beyond
promoting equal access and equal rights. They must have as
their ultimate goal enhancing the worth of women, both to
families and the state. Perhaps China's new five-year plan
will make a difference; it is too early to tell. But without
such an effort it is hard to imagine what will put an end to
the "missing girls," or to the lost opportunities that women
endure.
References
1. Zeng Yi, Tu Ping, Gu Baochang, Xu Yi, Li Bohua, and Li
Yongping, "Causes and Implications of the Recent Increase in
the Reported Sex Ratio in China," Population and Development
Review 19, no. 2 (June 1993): 283-302.
2. Nancy E. Riley and Xiong Yu, "Measuring Women's Power in
Chinese Households" (Paper presented at the Annual Meetings,
American Sociological Association, Aug. 1994, Los Angeles,
CA).
3. John Bauer, Wang Feng, Nancy E. Riley, and Zhao Xiaohua,
"Gender Inequality in Urban China: Education and Employment,"
Modern China 18, no. 3 (July 1992): 330-370.
4. Ibid.
Nancy E. Riley is PRB's 1995 Visiting Scholar and an
assistant professor in the Department of Sociology and
Anthropology at Bowdoin College. This piece is adapted from
"Chinese Women's Lives: Rhetoric and Reality," Asia Pacific
Issues, published by the East-West Center, Sept. 1995.
*****
United Kingdom
Population: 58.6 million
Land area: 94,251 square miles
Births: 13 per 1,000 population
Deaths: 11 per 1,000 population
Infant deaths: 6.6 per 1,000 live births
Natural increase: 0.2 percent per year
Total fertility: 1.8 births per woman
Life expectancy: 74(male)/79(female)
Capital: London
By Stefanie Durbin
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
comprises a group of islands slightly smaller than Oregon. A
tunnel running under the English Channel now links the United
Kingdom to continental Europe, but the links are more than
geographic. The United Kingdom's demographic patterns closely
mirror those of other European nations, and the economies of
the United Kingdom and Europe are increasingly intertwined.
At 58.6 million, the United Kingdom's population is the
third largest in Europe, after Russia and Germany, and its
population density is one of the highest in the world.
Britain's immigration policy is restrictive. British
lawmakers maintain that immigration limits work for native-
born Britons and fosters social tensions. Accordingly,
migration outflows and inflows are composed mainly of British
citizens and citizens of the British Commonwealth.
During 1993, Britain admitted almost 10 million
Commonwealth and foreign citizens, not including European
Union (EU) citizens. About 55,600 immigrants were accepted for
permanent settlement.
Demographically, the United Kingdom, like the rest of
Europe, has very low fertility. The total fertility rate (or
the average number of children a woman will have given current
birth rates) was 1.8 in 1993. Nearly 32 percent of births
occurred outside marriage in 1993, up from 5 percent in 1960
and 19 percent in 1985.
In 1995, the number of people age 65 and older totaled 9
million and is projected to be 12 million by 2020. Although
all citizens are covered by the National Health Plan, the
aging of the population will pose serious challenges to the
system.
In the United Kingdom, AIDS is not a critical health
crisis, as it is in the United States: in 1993, the United
Kingdom reported 2.8 cases of AIDS per 100,000 population,
while in the United States the rate was 25.4 per 100,000.
Along with demographic changes, Britain is undergoing
important economic changes from a manufacturing- to a service-
based economy.
In 1994, the U.K. labor force totaled 28 million, with
more than 60 percent in the service sector. Female labor force
participation rates have risen, particularly in the expanding
area of part-time work. Female wage and salary workers
outnumber males by almost four to one in the service sector.
Unemployment is steady and structural at 8 percent of
the labor force, up from 5 percent in 1979 but down from
almost 11 percent in early 1993. This rate is expected to
endure throughout the 1990s.
The United Kingdom boasts one of the largest European
economies and is a hub for world trade and finance. It also is
an important economic partner to the United States, ranking as
the fourth-largest U.S. export market after Canada, Japan, and
Mexico.
The United States and Britain maintain close political,
economic, and cultural ties. But Britain also has pursued a
closer alliance with Europe, joining the Common Market, now
the EU, in 1973. If EU goals are met, the venerable British
pound would be replaced one day by the "euro," the proposed
new currency of all EU nations.
*****
News and Resources
Thais at risk for HIV
One million Thais, or 1.5 percent of the 65 million
population, will be infected with HIV in 2005, according to
new analysis by the Thai government and the East-West Center.
At the end of 1994, close to 840,000 Thais, including 16,000
children, were infected. Over 1 million Thai children are
projected to have at least one HIV- infected parent by 2005.
["The Impact of HIV on Children in Thailand," East-West Center
Program on Population, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI
96848, 808-944-7482; fax: 808-944-7490.]
Public health SCOPE
SCOPE, an interactive computer simulation program
developed at Johns Hopkins University, teaches public health
specialists how to plan effective public health campaigns.
By navigating computer- generated data, participants
commission research, buy media, organize events, and test
messages while a corner box counts down from a budget of $1
million. In English, French, and Spanish; Russian and Hindi
programs are planned. [Contact: Stephen M. Goldstein, Center
for Communication Programs, 111 Market Place, Baltimore, MD
21202; 410- 659-6300; fax: 410-659- 6266.]
Query PRB's Data Sheet
Need to know the total fertility rate in Sierra Leone in
a hurry? Log on to PRB's Web site and query one of our most
popular publications, PRB's World Population Data Sheet.
[http://www. prb.org/prb/]
Population vs. species
Population growth is a cause of worldwide biodiversity
loss, according to the Global Biodiversity Assessment, a
report prepared by more than 1,500 scientific experts from
around the world and issued by the United Nations Environment
Programme. Accelerating demands on resources, economic
development, and overconsumption, spurred by population
growth, are some of the factors behind a threefold increase in
extinctions since 1810, compared to the period 1600 to 1810.
According to the report, biodiversity loss jeopardizes
supplies of food, wood, medicine, and energy, as well as
ecological functions. [The Earth Times, Nov._Dec. 1995.]
New Books
Global Perspectives on Health Care. Eugene B. Gallagher
and Janardan Subedi. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall,
1995. 370 pages. $29.40 paper. ISBN: 0-13-315078-X.
Changing Fatherhood: An Interdisciplinary Perspective.
M.C.P. van Dongen, G.A.B. Frinking, and M.J.G. Jacobs, eds.
Amsterdam: Thesis Publishers, 1995. 246 pages. ISBN: 90-5170-
341-4.
Europe's Population: Towards the Next Century. Ray Hall
and Paul White. London: UCL Press Ltd., 1995. 208 pages.
$26.95 paper. ISBN 1-85728-179-9.
Race, Ethnicity, and Entrepreneurship in Urban America.
Ivan Light and Carolyn Rosenstein. New York: Aldine De
Gruyter, 1995. 255 pages. $23.95 paper. ISBN: 0-202-30506-6.
An Inquiry into Well-Being and Destitution. Partha
Dasgupta. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1995. 661 pages. $19.95
paper. ISBN: 0-19-828835-2.
Demography and Poverty. Liege, Belgium: International
Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 1995. Bound
collection of 16 papers from a seminar organized by IUSSP,
UNICEF, and the University of Florence, held in Florence,
Italy, March 1-4, 1995. $30.00.
Mainstreaming the Environment: The World Bank Group and
the Environment Since the Rio Earth Summit, Fiscal 1995.
Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1995. 301 pages. $8.95 paper.
ISBN: 0-8213-3290-2.
The Human Face of the Urban Environment: Proceedings of
the Second Annual World Bank Conference on Environmentally
Sustainable Development. Ismail Serageldin, Michael A. Cohen,
and K.C. Sivaramakrishnan, eds. Washington, DC: The World
Bank, 1995. 349 pages. $21.95 paper. ISBN: 0-8213-3320-8.
The Business of Sustainable Cities: Public-Private
Partnerships for Creative Technical and Institutional
Solutions. Ismail Serageldin, Richard Barrett, and Joan
Martin- Brown, eds. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1995. 38
pages. $7.95 paper. ISBN: 0-8213-3319-4.
Learning About Sexuality: A Practical Beginning. Sondra
Zeidenstein and Kirsten Moore, eds. New York: The Population
Council, 1996. 404 pages. $20.00 paper. ISBN 0-87834-085-8.