UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
MIGRATION NEWS Vol. 3, No. 11 November, 1996 Migration News summarizes the most important immigration and integration developments of the preceding month. Topics are grouped by region: North America, Europe, Asia and Other. There are two versions of Migration News. The paper edition is about 8,000 words in length, and the email version about 15,000. The purpose of Migration News is to provide a monthly summary of recent immigration developments that can be read in 60 minutes or less. Many issues also contain summaries and reviews of recent research publications. Distribution is by email. If you wish to subscribe, send your email address to: Migration News <firstname.lastname@example.org> Current and back issues may be accessed via Internet on the Migration News Home Page--- http://migration.ucdavis.edu There is no charge for an email subscription to Migration News. A paper edition is available by mail for $30 domestic and $50 foreign. Make checks payable to UC Regents and send to: Philip Martin, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Davis, California 95616 USA. Migration News is produced with the support of the University of California-Berkeley Center for German and European Studies, the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and the Pew Charitable Trusts. Editor: Philip Martin Managing Editor: Cecily Sprouse Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Davis Davis CA 95616 Tel (916) 752-1530 Fax: (916) 752-5614 ISSN 1081-9916 NORTH AMERICA Naturalization Controversy Continues Immigration in the Election Assessing 1996 Immigration Changes INS: Enforcement and Management Welfare Reform's Uneven Impacts California: Population, Housing and Labor Mexican Views on Immigration Nonimmigrants/US Business/Inequality Canadian Immigration Falls Dominican Republic Immigration EUROPE EU: Majority Voting on Migration Issues Germany Returns Bosnians France: New Immigration Legislation? Morocco and Spain to Fight Illegal Immigration Netherlands Expects Increase in Immigration ASIA Migration between Two Koreas Singapore: Foreign Workers and Productivity Malaysia: Recruitment Ban Continues Thailand: From Illegals to Guest Workers Vietnam Restricts Foreigner Workers OTHER UAE Expels Migrants Immigration in Africa Australian Race Debate Heats Up RESOURCES Slow Advancement for the Newly-Legalized Working Papers on Immigration Issues _______________________________ NORTH AMERICA _______________________________ Naturalization Controversy Continues As the number of newly-naturalized US citizens surpassed 1.1 million in FY96, Republicans stepped up their attacks on Citizenship USA. Vice President Gore launched the INS- administered initiative Citizenship USA in 1995 to eliminate the backlog of 800,000 immigrants who applied for US citizenship and were waiting to be naturalized. Republicans charged that expedited naturalization was an attempt by the Clinton administration to add Democrats to the voter rolls in California and other key states before the November 1996 elections. The INS officer in Fresno, for example, asserted in an April 1996 letter that the "INS has been told to naturalize everyone who filed Form N-400 prior to April 1, 1996, in time for them to register to vote in the November election." A Dole radio ad in California charged that "aliens with criminal records --rapists, murderers, armed felons -- have been granted US citizenship so they can vote." Republicans uncovered documents that showed that a member of Gore's staff complained on March 28, 1996 that INS headquarters was hindering efforts to produce "a million new voters by election day." One memo discussed ways to "lower the standards for citizenship." The INS eventually granted its district managers in some cities the authority to waive some INS rules and regulations to speed up naturalizations. Citizenship USA used community-based groups to recruit permanent residents for naturalization. Republicans also charged that the INS permitted foreign criminals to become US citizens. The FBI on October 24, 1996 estimated that 100,000 immigrants with criminal histories may have become US citizens since August 1995, when Citizenship USA began, based on the FBI's assumption that eight to 10 percent of the applicants for naturalization have criminal records. In Los Angeles, an INS clerk charged that the INS destroyed more than 4,000 fingerprints from aliens seeking naturalization before they were forwarded, as required, to the FBI to verify that the aliens did not have criminal records. This prompted California Governor Pete Wilson to release a letter to US Attorney General Janet Reno on October 21, 1996 saying that "The federal government should be deporting such dangerous criminals, not rushing to naturalize them." The INS countered that the fingerprint cards were destroyed because they were not complete and that the naturalization applicants were ordered to submit new ones. The INS said that no more than 1,300 people with criminal histories were improperly naturalized in 1996. The INS says that it processed 1.3 million applications for US citizenship in FY96, and rejected about 220,000 applications, a 17 percent rejection rate. On October 24, 1996, the INS issued regulations that allow the agency, rather than a US court, to revoke the US citizenship of persons found to have been improperly naturalized. Senator Alan Simpson (R-WY) focused on "the rights and privileges" of naturalization during the immigration subcommittee's last hearing of the year on October 22, 1996. The hearing ranged over questions such as whether the US should permit dual citizenship and whether the US has made it too easy to naturalize. Most industrial democracies are making naturalization easier. In the US, most legal immigrants must be residents for five years before applying, although spouses of US citizens can apply after three years. In New Zealand and Australia, by contrast, legal immigrants can apply for naturalization after two or three years of residence. In California, immigrants eager to naturalize are often bilked by notarios, non-lawyer paralegals who sometimes operate from fancy leased offices, collect thousands of dollars from immigrants and then disappear. In some cases, the $2,000 to $4,000 lost represents several years of an immigrant's savings. William Branigin, "GOP Intensifies Action On Citizenship Inquiry," Washington Post, October 25, 1996. Julio Laboy, "Immigrants hit by scams on citizenship," Wall Street Journal, October 10, 1996. Marcus Stern, "White House pressured INS to add new citizens," San Diego Union Tribune, October 9, 1996. Sara Fritz, "Gore Immigrant Program Role Draws Fire," Los Angeles Times, October 6, 1996. _______________________________ Immigration in the Election Presidential Politics. After the second debate between presidential candidates Robert Dole and Bill Clinton in San Diego on October 16, 1996, Dole tried to win votes in California by accusing the Clinton administration of failing to control illegal immigration. On October 17 in Riverside, Dole complained that Californians must pay for "drug rehab for illegal aliens in prison." According to Dole, "Whenever he [Clinton] has to choose between California taxpayers and the militant groups who demand public support for illegal aliens, he sides with the militant special-interest groups." Dole accused Clinton of weakening the new immigration law by persuading Congress to accept revisions in last minute negotiations, so that: "If you are in this country illegally, you can stay in public housing, collect welfare, get free medical care and even invite family members abroad to come and join you." On October 15, 1996, California Governor Pete Wilson sponsored an "open letter" in the New York Times that accused President Clinton of "sticking California taxpayers with $3 billion per year for illegal immigrants." Wilson charged that the Clinton administration's last minute changes to the 1996 immigration law will allow illegal aliens who unlawfully received US welfare benefits to nonetheless become naturalized US citizens, to permit illegal aliens in public housing to remain there and to continue to allow wages earned by unauthorized aliens to be credited to that alien's Social Security account. The flap over an Indonesian couple's $425,000 contribution to the Democratic National Committee sparked a debate over an anomaly in US law: legal immigrants living in the United States can contribute to political parties and candidates, but they may not vote. Clinton and Dole pledged that, if elected, they would make it unlawful for non-US citizens to make political contributions. There is only one Asian-American holding statewide office in California, even though Asian-Americans are 11 percent of California's residents. Asian-Americans outnumber Blacks in Los Angeles County, but there are no Asian-Americans on the 15-member Board of Supervisors, versus three African Americans and three Latinos. Once Asian Americans register to vote, they vote. In the 1994 election, 76 percent of the registered Asian American voters went to the polls, compared to 73 percent of whites, 64 percent of Latinos and 63 percent of African Americans. The Asian population of the US was 1.5 million in 1970 and is expected to top 12 million by the year 2000. Latino Voters. An estimated 6.6 million Hispanics were registered to vote in the November 1996 elections, up from 4.8 million registered to vote in 1992, including two million in California, 1.6 million in Texas, 570,000 in Florida and 540,000 in New York. About 150,000 Latinos turn 18 every year in the United States. In California, the two million registered Latinos were 12 percent of California's 16 million registered voters. [Latinos are one-fourth of California's 32 million residents]. The Tomas Rivera Policy Institute reported on October 22, 1996 the results of a public opinion poll that found that 71 percent of the Latinos registered to vote in California and 85 percent of the Latinos naturalized since 1992, said they planned to vote for Clinton. Several groups charged that many non-citizens have registered to vote in the 1996 elections. In the 1996 election, one of the groups that backed Prop. 187 plans to hand out leaflets to voters approaching the polls that say: "Only citizens can vote! Violators will be prosecuted!" Several Hispanic groups have termed such leafleting "harassment" designed to discourage Latino voters and the US Justice Department promised to respond quickly to complaints of voter harassment. They formed Latino Election Watch '96, which includes toll-free hotlines for complaints and a team of lawyers ready to investigate potential violations of the Voting Rights Act. The Democratic party is offering a $25,000 reward to anyone recording video images of people near polling places "using intimidating and physical threats against voters." In 1988, uniformed guards were stationed at 20 polling places in Santa Ana in Orange County holding signs in English and Spanish that warned that noncitizens were barred from voting. The Republicans who arranged for the guards denied any wrongdoing, but settled a lawsuit brought by six Hispanic citizens for $400,000. On October 21, 1996, two Central Americans employed by a landscaping company to work at the vice president's residence were detained by the INS. The INS began proceedings to deport one of the workers. Both workers were able to obtain and present Maryland drivers' licenses to their employer. The immigration bill originally contained a provision that would have required states to check the legal status of applicants for drivers' licenses, but this provision was deleted in last-minute negotiations. Ken Chavez, "Voter-fraud fliers unfair, Latinos say," Sacramento Bee, November 1, 1996. K. Connie Kang, "Asian Americans slow to flex their political muscle," Los Angeles Times, October 31, 1996. Patrick McDonnell, "New Citizens From Latin America Back Clinton, Poll Finds," Los Angeles Times, October 23, 1996. Mark Z. Barabak, "Dole attacks president on illegal immigration," San Diego Union Tribune, October 18, 1996. Charles R. Babcock and Ruth Marcus, "Indonesian Gift Points Up What Some Call a Loophole: Political Donations From Noncitizens Questioned," Washington Post, October 16 1996. _______________________________ Assessing 1996 Immigration Changes In 1996, three major laws that affect immigrants and immigration were enacted: The Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act, signed into law on April 24, 1996; the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act, signed into law on August 22, 1996; and The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, signed on September 30, 1996. The immigration bill will, inter alia, increase the size of the US Border Patrol to 10,000 agents by 2001. The immigration bill also includes a pilot employee eligibility verification program that employers in sectors with a history of employing illegal immigrants will be encouraged to enroll in. The "basic pilot program" will be launched in at least five of the seven highest-immigration states. Employer participation is voluntary, but many expect that the INS may concentrate its enforcement efforts on non- participating employers. Foreigners who remain in the United States for more than six months in an unlawful status will be barred from entering the US for three years after their departure, and those who stay unlawfully in the US for one year or more will be barred from returning legally for 10 years. In one of the first moves to implement the new immigration law, Attorney General Janet Reno asked courts to dismiss five class-action lawsuits filed on behalf of up to 400,000 illegal immigrants in California and Washington. The suits alleged that the aliens were wrongly disqualified from the legalization program that permitted persons in the US illegally since January 1, 1982 to apply for permanent resident status in 1987-88. The Justice Department asserted that the lawsuits were filed only to allow what it estimated to be 100,000 illegal immigrants to remain in the US. Under the new immigration law, only the US Supreme Court may issue broad injunctions against INS policies and procedures. Some immigration lawyers, who call the INS a "rogue agency," do not believe that Congress can deprive foreigners in the US from full access to US courts. Protest and Suits. On October 12, 1996, an estimated 25,000 people demonstrated in Washington DC against "anti-immigrant" sentiment. "La Marcha" organizers had predicted that 100,000 of the nation's 26 million Latinos would participate in what was termed the nation's first "pro-immigrant march." A march in 1994 in Los Angeles to oppose Proposition 187 drew 70,000 participants. The Million Man March organized by African- Americans in 1995 drew an estimated 800,000 people. Speakers at the rally urged support for a seven-point agenda that included human and constitutional rights for all; equal opportunities and affirmative action; free public education for all; expansion of health services; citizen police review boards; labor law reform and a $7 per hour minimum wage; a streamlined citizenship application program; and an amnesty for immigrants who illegally entered the United States before 1992. On October 11, 1996, New York City Mayor Giuliani sued the federal government over provisions in the new welfare and immigration laws that allow--not require-- city employees to report suspected illegal immigrants who seek city services to the INS. Since 1985, New York City has prohibited its employees from reporting suspected illegal aliens to INS. According to the mayor's office, there were about 400,000 illegal aliens in New York City in 1993, including 85,000 of school age. New York officials claimed that allowing city employees to file reports with INS would violate the 10th Amendment, which reserves for the states all powers not expressly granted to the federal government. David Johnston, "Government Quickly Using Power of New Immigration Law," New York Times, October 22, 1996. George Ramos, "Thousands of Latinos March in Washington," Los Angeles Times, October 13, 1996. Patrick McDonnell, " New Law Could End Immigrants' Amnesty Hopes," Los Angeles Times, October 9, 1996. _______________________________ INS: Enforcement and Management Enforcement. On October 10, 1996, the INS announced that Operation Gatekeeper would be extended to East San Diego county. Intense Border Patrol agent coverage would thereby be expanded from the 14 westernmost miles of US-Mexican border to include the 66 westernmost miles. The number of Border Patrol agents in the San Diego sector has more than doubled to 2,000 since Gatekeeper began in October 1994, including 830 agents assigned to the border from Otay Mountain east to Imperial County. In a first-ever case near San Francisco, the INS fined a home owner $450 for failing to complete an I-9 employee verification form for a worker he hired to do heavy yard work. According to the INS, the homeowner drove to a "known day-labor pickup point" in San Rafael, California, picked up two men and drove them to his home. INS agents observing the day labor market followed the homeowner up a dirt road to his property. When the INS agents appeared, one worker fled and the other was apprehended. The home owner argues that he should not be fined for two reasons. First, work had not yet begun, so the workers had not yet been "hired." Second, IRCA exempts US employers from the need to complete I-9 forms for "domestic service." The INS contends that, in this case, the workers were hired for something more akin to construction work--re-establishing a washed-away hillside--than domestic service. The Immigration and Naturalization Service announced that it would begin to issue Warning Notices to persons who have "minor verification violations" of employment laws. Under the new regulations, employers can scan and print out copies of the Employment Eligibility Verification Form (Form I-9). Since 1989, the INS has issued 16,000 notices of intent to fine US employers, including 2,200 in California, for hiring illegal aliens, or for not completing I-9 forms. When the INS discovers violations of employment eligibility laws, its agents issue either a Warning Notice, Form I-846, or a Notice of Intent to Fine (NIF), Form I-763. An October 5 analysis in the Sacramento Bee suggests that the INS devoted about two percent of its $2.6 budget in FY96 to employer sanctions enforcement. The INS typically settles cases against employers for about 40 percent of the amount initially assessed. Between April 1988 and August 1995, for example, the INS proposed $96.3 million in fines on employers, but settled for $38.3 million. In a report on fraudulent documents, the Dallas Morning News on October 29, 1996 reported that unauthorized aliens soon learn that the coveted green card is actually pink and that border crossing cards that permit a Mexican national to "legally" enter the US can be rented for $50 to $100. In Laredo, Texas, the INS seizes about 300 false documents from the three million border crossers each month. Some Border Patrol agents estimate that 70 percent to 80 percent of the illegal entrants they apprehend each year are carrying packets of illegal documents. Aliens caught entering the US with false documents are subject to fines of up to $2,000 and five years in prison. The INS in New York City indicted on October 8, 1996 three Chinese men, affiliated with the Fuk Ching organization, on alien-smuggling charges after intercepting a freighter loaded with more than 100 Chinese in near Bermuda-- 83 passengers and 26 crew and smugglers. Under the new immigration law, alien smugglers can be sentenced to up to 10 years in prison for each alien they attempt to smuggle into the US. Since 1992, more than 40 ships have been detected attempting to smuggle Chinese to the United States, including the Golden Venture, which ran aground off New York in 1993 with more than 280 Chinese on board. Illegal Chinese immigrants typically pay $30,000 to $40,000 each to be smuggled into the United States. They usually make a down payment in China and they or their families then pay off the rest once they reach their destination. The INS deported a record 67,094 illegal aliens in FY96, including 37,000 who had committed crimes in the US. The INS, with 23,000 employees, has become one of the largest law enforcement agencies in the US. HIV. Several reports in October attacked the Clinton administration for asking INS to consider granting asylum to foreigners with AIDS. Under a 1993 law, foreigners infected with communicable diseases, including AIDS, are barred from entering the United States and are subject to deportation if they are located inside the US. The Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS sought to change this policy in 1995, recommending that the INS grant asylum "based on the social group category of HIV-positive individuals." In New York, a foreigner who was HIV-positive was granted asylum in the US, prompting House Speaker Newt Gingrich to complain that "Under the Clinton administration, you can come to America illegally -- sneak into the country --announce that you are HIV-positive, be declared a political refugee, and be eligible for $120,000 of health benefits." Management. A federal judge in Seattle ruled on October 9, 1996 that the INS violated the 5th Amendment's due process clause by failing to properly inform about 5,000 aliens charged with using false documents to obtain US jobs or benefits that they have a right to a hearing to try to rebut the INS charges. Any alien who was caught using false documents can reopen his or her case by "attest[ing] to his or her lack of understanding" of the INS forms, which were published only in English. The judge ruled that aliens who have already been deported, perhaps as many as 2,500, can return to the US at their own expense to contest their deportations. The judge ordered the INS to publicize his decision in Central America and South America and among the 800 nonprofit immigration assistance providers with which the INS has established contact. The 1990 Immigration and Naturalization Act made document fraud a crime punishable by automatic and permanent deportation. The judge ruled that INS forms that were given to aliens caught with false documents were available only in English, and thus did not inform aliens adequately that they were being permanently barred from the US. The INS has 60 days to appeal the ruling. On September 12, 1996, the House Judiciary Immigration and Claims subcommittee berated the INS for attempting to conceal from a Congressional oversight committee overcrowding at a detention center and understaffing at the Miami airport. The INS officials implicated in the attempt to mislead Congress were not helpful to the investigation. Some, nonetheless, have been promoted by the INS. An estimated one-fourth of the 720,000 immigrants "admitted" by the INS in FY95 were living illegally in the US and adjusted their status. Some 7.6 million foreigners are expected to apply for the 55,000 diversity visas available in FY97. David McLemore, "Investigators see fake documents flourish in wake of law," Dallas Morning News, October 29, 1996. Ruth Larson, "White House waffles on HIV asylum policy," Washington Times, October 22, 1996. Eric Brazil, "Fine over yardwork a test case," San Francisco Examiner, October 12, 1996. Henry Weinstein, "Ruling Could Reopen Many Deportee Cases," Los Angeles Times, October 10, 1996. William Branigin, "2-Year U.S. Probe Leads to Capture of Freighter Crowded With Aliens," Washington Post, October 9, 1996. Michael Doyle, "Efforts by INS to levy fines fall short," Sacramento Bee, October 5, 1996. _______________________________ Welfare Reform's Uneven Impacts Food Stamps. In the omnibus spending bill, approved at the end of September 1996 along with the new immigration law, the Clinton administration convinced Congress to permit legal immigrants currently receiving Food Stamps to continue getting them until April 1, 1997. Food Stamps are entirely paid for by the federal government; they provide an average $73 per person per month in coupons that can be used to buy food. About 1.8 million of the 25 million Food Stamp recipients are legal immigrants. One million are expected to be removed from the program when their eligibility is re-checked. States are expected to re-verify immigrant Food Stamp recipients between April 1, 1997 and August 22, 1997. On October 31, 1996, a state judge issued a preliminary injunction forbidding California from implementing the part of the new welfare law that makes many legal immigrants not eligible for Food Stamps until the state government also develops procedures to notify the public of the changes. About 436,000 legal immigrants receive Food Stamps in California; immigrants are 14 percent of the 3.2 million recipients. Some 373,000 are expected to be removed from the rolls--legal immigrants can receive Food Stamps only if they are active U.S. military personnel veterans; refugees who have lived in the US less than five years; or legal immigrants have worked in the United States for at least 10 years. In California, counties administer the Food Stamp program. Legal immigrants not currently receiving Food Stamps, and who applied for Food Stamps after August 22, 1996, have had their applications rejected. Suits. On October 15, 1996, a coalition of immigrant rights groups in California sought an injunction from the federal judge who in 1995 blocked implementation of Proposition 187. The suit aimed to prevent California from withholding prenatal care from illegal immigrant women under the new federal welfare law. It argued that making illegal alien women ineligible for state-funded prenatal care would jeopardize their US-born and US-citizen babies. On November 1, 1996, the federal judge ruled that the new federal welfare law DOES permit California to eliminate on December 1, 1996 a $69 million program that provides prenatal care for an estimated 70,000 unauthorized pregnant women, including 20,000 in Los Angeles. California had been providing prenatal care to unauthorized pregnant women since 1988. The ruling may open the door to barring unauthorized immigrants from other state-funded programs. General. President Clinton signed the law creating a new welfare system into law on August 22, 1996. States were given from October 1, 1996 through July 1, 1997 to prepare plans on the provision of assistance to poor people. Each state will receive a federal block grant to provide assistance to poor residents. Most state plans for caring for poor residents simply state that the state will devise lawful means of assisting the poor. A few states, including Nebraska and Utah, said they would use state money to provide welfare assistance to legal immigrants who arrived in the US after August 22, 1996. Less than 10 percent of adult welfare recipients are now working. Under the new welfare law, recipients are required to work after two years of federal welfare benefits. Half of each state's adults on welfare are to be working by 2002. The new law sets a five-year lifetime limit on payments to any family. The minimum wage rose to $4.25 hourly on October 1, 1996. About 25 percent of food-service workers are paid the minimum wage. A full-time worker would have to earn $7.80 per hour for 2,000 hours per year to push a family of four above the $15,600 poverty line. Patrick McDonell and Virginia Ellis, "Welfare law will allow Wilson to cut immigrant aid," Los Angeles Times, November 2, 1996. "Mayor Giuliani Makes Case For Immigration in Lawsuit," Reuter, October 12, 1996. Robert Pear, "Legal immigrants get food-stamp extension," New York Times, October 3, 1996. _______________________________ California: Population, Housing and Labor Population. The US Census Bureau released its projections of California's population in October, and projected that the state would have 49.3 million residents in 2025. In 2025, California is projected to have 21 million Hispanics, 15 million non-Hispanic whites, nine million Asians, and three million Blacks. California's Latino population is expected to double between 1995 and 2025 and account for a third of the total Latino population in the US in 2025. California is projected to add a net 18 million residents between 1995 and 2025, including nine million immigrants. The Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in mid-October released a study that projected that California will gain a net 25,000 residents from other states in 1996, the first net population growth due to internal migration since 1991. In August, 1996 California was creating a net 25,000 new jobs each month. Latino Income. Pepperdine University's Institute for Public Policy issued a report in October that argued that, after 20 years in the US, a significant number of Latinos enter the middle class. According to 1990 Census data, there were nearly four times as many US-born Latino households in the middle class in Southern California as there were in poverty. Middle class was defined as a household incomes above $35,000 or owning a home. Latinos in 1990 were about one-third of the population of the five-county Southern California region--Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties--and one- fourth of all residents identified as middle class. Two- thirds of Latino households in Southern California are headed by immigrants and two-thirds of the Latino households headed by recent immigrants had household incomes of less than $35,000. In Los Angeles County, Latino households make up nearly 47 percent of all poor households. The report paints a picture of hard-working, family-oriented people who are gradually increasing their incomes and purchasing homes, often by pooling the income of several persons in large households. Housing. Construction normally leads California out of recession, with each 200,000 to 300,000 of added population typically associated with 100,000 new home starts. The Wall Street Journal on October 10, 1996 argued that immigrants are behind the current mini-housing boom in California. Asians are particularly apt to press on to home ownership. In 1986, California had over 300,000 new housing starts and the net addition of over 700,000 people, but in 1991, housing starts fell to less than 100,000 and have remained there since. More US-born residents are leaving than are entering California, giving the state a net loss of population due to domestic migration of over 300,000 per year for the past five years. According to housing experts, there are about three immigrants per housing unit, versus two US-born persons per housing unit. In some areas, such as Los Angeles, immigrants can buy houses vacated by US-born persons leaving the area, but in cities such as Fresno, their arrival leads to new construction. The five most common names of home buyers in the Los Angeles area in 1995 were Hispanic; Smith was the eighth most common name. Since 4.5 million legal and illegal immigrants arrived in the past 16 years, the California housing industry projects the need for an additional 1.3 million housing units. The Hispanic population of California is projected to increase by 38 percent over the next decade, but the Hispanic population between the ages of 35 and 54, prime home-buying ages, is projected to rise by 75 percent. Latinos are optimistic. An August, 1996 Field Poll of 553 Latinos showed that 50 percent of the Latinos, but only 42 percent of all Californians surveyed, believe they will be better off a year from now. Some 54 percent of Latinos in California earn less than $20,000 a year, compared with 30 percent of the entire state's work force. Two-thirds of California's net population growth is due to immigration. There are about 20 million residents of southern California and over one third, or eight million, were born abroad. Indeed, about one third of all the foreign-born persons in the US live in southern California. Welfare. On January 1, 1997, payments to the 2.7 million California recipients of Aid to Families With Dependent Children will be cut by 4.9 percent in urban areas and 9.8 percent in 41 rural counties. An urban family of three will see its monthly check drop about $29, to $565, and rural families of three will get $538. California began hearings around the state on implementing the new welfare law and, at the first hearing in Fresno on October 24, 1996, local officials in the "Valley of the poor" complained that legal immigrants removed from welfare rolls would become the responsibility of county governments. However, the state's legislative analyst predicted that, since most of the immigrants receiving welfare in California have been in the state for at least five years, many will apply for US citizenship to keep their benefits. In Fresno county, California, the nation's major agricultural county, legal immigrants are 14 percent of the population, but constitute one-third of those receiving AFDC. Schools. In Fall 1996, there were be a record 52 million children enrolled in K-12 schools, topping a 51 million peak during the baby boom in 1971. The enrollment surge in the 1990s is due primarily to the baby-boom echo,--the baby boomers of the 1960s having children-- to increased immigration and higher fertility, especially among Hispanics. A new study found that more than 40 percent of the children enrolled in K-12 education in 1996-97 are Hispanics and their share of public school enrollment is expected to top 50 percent by the year 2004. Relatively few Hispanics complete high school in a manner that makes them eligible for admission to the University of California. For every 100 Latino students in 10th grade, only four become eligible for admission into UC, which accepts the top 12.5 percent of high school graduates, and only one enrolls in UC. California has 1.3 million K-12 children who are not fluent in English, and the state is grappling with how to reform bilingual education. Bilingual education is currently governed by court cases and state regulations written after the last bilingual education law expired in 1987. They require that bilingual programs must be based on sound educational theory, must be given sufficient resources to allow that theory to make a difference and must produce results. A September 1996 poll found that 70 percent of Latino parents said teaching children to read and write in English should be the schools' top priority. Labor. In September 1996, the city of Glendale near Los Angeles began banning workers seeking day jobs and employers seeking workers from public roads. The city is, however, building a structure with restrooms and chairs where day laborers can wait to be hired. Violations of the street hiring law can result in fines of up to $500 or six months in jail. Free classes in English and job-related skills are planned for the men as they wait for work. Beginning in the mid-1980s, many southern California cities have sponsored day labor markets to avoid worker loitering near home improvement stores. The city of Los Angeles is now operating two sites for day laborers, in North Hollywood and Harbor City, but does not ban street soliciting for jobs. In 1991, Agoura Hills banned street labor markets, its ordinance was upheld and Ladera Heights and La Mirada soon followed with similar ordinances. However, these cities have found it difficult to enforce their laws. Studies suggest that only one-fourth to one- third of the day laborers are unauthorized workers. Illegal Immigration. A study released by the Public Policy Institute of California concluded that illegal immigration from Mexico to California reacts to changes in the economies of Mexico and California. Demographer Hans Johnson used a variety of data to estimate the flow of illegal immigrants to California from Mexico between 1980 and 1993. According to Johnson, illegal immigration accounted for 22 to 31 percent of the state's population growth between 1980 and 1993. Johnson found that when California's economy boomed in the mid to late 1980s, the state experienced brisk job growth and illegal immigration peaked. When California suffered from a severe recession in the early 1990's, illegal immigration fell. In mid-June, state lawyers argued before a federal judge that California was suffering from an "invasion" of illegal immigrants, since the estimated 1.7 to 1.8 million illegal residents in California are five percent of the state's population. According to the state's lawyer, an invasion is the "illegal entry of so many persons that it is beyond the capability of the state to handle." An August 1996 survey of 1,100 Riverside county residents found that, although 68 percent thought that illegal immigration was a "big problem," most think that the US should continue to permit all persons born in the US to be US citizens. On October 6, 1996, the Los Angeles Times reported that California, the only state whose Medicaid program pays for emergency hospitalization in Canada or Mexico, was being falsely billed for hundreds of thousands of dollars by Mexican border city doctors. California in mid-1996 had 163,300 full-time state employees. They were 58 percent non-Hispanic white, 17 percent Hispanic, 12 percent African-American and six percent Asian. Virginia Ellis, "Welfare Official Warns of Threat From New Law," Los Angeles Times, October 25, 1996. Bernard Wysocki, "Influx of immigrants adds new vitality to housing market," Wall Street Journal, October 10, 1996. Steve Ryfle, "2- Pronged Plan for Street-Side Job Seekers," Los Angeles Times, September 13, 1996. David Lesher and Dan Morain, "Care for Disabled Illegal Immigrants Periled," Los Angeles Times, September 4, 1996. Rochelle Sharpe, "Record school enrollments lie ahead," Wall Street Journal, August 22, 1996. _______________________________ Mexican Views on Immigration On October 22, 1996, Mexican Foreign Relations Secretary Jose Angel Gurria asserted that "The phenomenon of migration can be beneficial and offers great potential advantages to both the migrants' original and new countries, but only when a common vision on this phenomenon is reached." The Sacramento Bee of October 9, 1996 noted that 40 percent of the almost 1,000 Mexicans who apply for visas to visit the US every day are turned down. Since July 1996, Mexicans applying for non-immigrant visas to visit the US must pay $20 each time they apply for a visa. To prevent fraud, the consulate does not tell visa applicants what materials to bring to their interviews and many must apply several times. About a third of the estimated 150,000 foreigners per year who settle illegally after lawful entry are believed to be Mexican. Mexico's population, 94 million in 1995, is rising by two million a year and is expected to reach 125 million in 2010. The Inter-Secretarial Commission for the Creation and Use of Population Identification Numbers recommended in October that Mexico adopt a "universal identification system for all citizens." Kelly Librera, "Committee to explore national ID system formed," The News, October 24 1996. Dorsey Griffith, "No welcome mat at US embassy," Sacramento Bee, October 9, 1996. _______________________________ Nonimmigrants/US Business/Inequality Labor Certification. US mathematicians holding doctorates, whose unemployment rate jumped to almost 11 percent in 1995, are protesting the provision of the 1990 IMMACT that increased the number of foreigners allowed to immigrate to the US to fill vacant US jobs from 54,000 per year to 140,000 per year. According to the protesting US mathematicians, US employers have taken advantage of the increased number of immigration visas available. According to one group, 40 percent of the 720 jobs available to PhD mathematicians in 1995 went to immigrants. In 1994, some 561 professors and researchers received US immigrant visas because they were considered outstanding in their fields, down from 615 in 1993. The US mathematicians argue that because of easy immigration, universities and other US employers can select from 50 or 100 equally-qualified candidates for each opening. There is disagreement over whether intense competition for professor jobs is helpful or harmful. According to economist Jagdish Bhagwati, the fact that Russian and Chinese immigrants are included in the competition for professorships is good, since it raises the standard in mathematics departments from research universities to community colleges. This process highlights the re-distributive aspects of immigration--even if all US residents gain, there can be significant and concentrated costs. The May 1996 DOL Inspector Generals' report that concluded that many US employer requests for temporary and permanent foreign workers merely legalize the status of a foreigner already employed continued to echo in news reports. For example, Philadelphia Inquirer reporters Donald Barlett and James Steele on October 20, 1996 detailed the jobs that US employers asked to fill with temporary and permanent immigrants in 1995--a $5.25 per hour hair stylist in Washington DC, a $15 per hour biologist for the Red Cross and a $53,000 per year systems analyst at Perot Systems. Other jobs filled by foreigners after DOL certified that US workers were not available included housecleaners, fast-food restaurant managers and cooks. Immigrant Businesses. The number of US businesses reached 17.3 million in 1992, up from 13.7 million in 1987, and their sales topped $3.3 trillion, up from $2 trillion. The average US firm had sales in 1992 of $193,000. The US Census reported on July 10 that the number of Hispanic businesses in the US increased from 490,000 in 1987 to 863,000 in 1992, and that their receipts jumped from $33 billion to $77 billion. About 47 percent of Hispanic-owned firms, and 45 percent of all US businesses, had annual sales in 1992 of less than $10,000, suggesting that most are sideline operations. California has about one-third of US Hispanic-owned businesses--250,000 firms, followed by Texas with 156,000 and Florida with 118,000. The number of US firms owned by people of Asian descent increased rapidly between 1987 and 1992, from 386,000 to 603,000. Most of the Asian-owned firms provide services in California, New York, and Texas. Almost half of the Asian- owned business are owned by persons who trace their roots to China or Korea (not all Asian-owned businesses are immigrant- owned). Inequality. By all measures, inequality in the US has increased over the past 20 years. The median income of US families in real dollars fell from $29,900 in 1989 to $27,100 in 1993. Thus the median income was 3.25 times the poverty level in 1989, but only three times the poverty level in 1993. Over the past 20 years, the share of US jobs that paid wages too low to keep a one-earner family above the poverty line has increased from 24 to 30 percent of all US jobs. Four major explanations have been advanced for increased inequality: technological change that raised wages for educated workers and reduced them for workers without a high school education; the shift to a service economy, where the spread in wages is greater than in manufacturing; increased trade, pitting US manufacturing workers more directly against lower wage workers abroad; and increased immigration, which puts downward pressure on wages at the bottom of the US job ladder. There is widespread disagreement about the percentage of inequality explained by each of these factors. One recent poll reported that two-thirds of Americans blame trade and immigration for stagnant wages and rising inequality. According to a study by Occidental College, about 25 percent of the immigrants who arrived in California's San Fernando Valley in the 1980s had incomes below the poverty line at the time of the 1990 census. Of the immigrants who arrived in the 1970s, by contrast, only 12 percent were poor in 1990. The study concludes that immigrants are upwardly mobile. A report from the California Public Policy Institute released July 14 found that inequality among men is increasing faster in California than among men in the US as a whole. In 1995, men earning less than $6,000 per year were in the bottom 10 percent of the male earners and men earning $65,000 or more were in the top 10 percent of earners. Michael Phillips, "Math PhDs add to Anti-Foreigner Wave," Wall Street Journal, September 4, 1996. Michael Selz, "US firms owned by Pacific Islanders, Asians are growing at a rapid pace," Wall Street Journal, August 2, 1996. Peter Passell, "Technology's edict: adapt or lose out," New York Times, July 25, 1996. _______________________________ Canadian Immigration Falls Canada anticipated the arrival of 220,000 immigrants and refugees in 1996 but, as of October, only about 160,000 had arrived. The platform of Canada's governing Liberal Party calls for the annual addition via immigration of one percent of the country's population, which would mean about 300,000 immigrants per year. However, Canada publishes an expected level of immigration each year and, for 1997, it expects to admit between 195,000 and 220,000. About 113,000 will be economic migrants, persons admitted under a system that awards points for education and skills, 61,000 are family unification immigrants and 26,000 are refugees. In 1971 Canada launched a national policy of multiculturalism. A Ministry of Multiculturalism was established in 1973, and in 1982, the Canadian Charter or constitution was amended to say that it should be interpreted to preserve and enhance "the multicultural heritage of Canadians." The Canadian government was pledged by law in 1988 to preserve and enhance multiculturalism. The Liberal government recently reaffirmed multiculturalism despite widespread criticism that state-funded multiculturalism is accelerating the break-up of Canada. Toronto in 1996 won the United Nations' Best Practices Award for the integration and celebration of immigrants. A recent poll in the Vancouver Sun found that many immigrants from Hong Kong believe they are victims of racism. Some analysts say the racism stems from reactions of jealousy from the native community over the wealth of the Hong Kong immigrants. Manitoba, which attracted 3,400 immigrants in 1995, won permission in October 1996 to relax some of Canada's immigration restrictions to meet the province's goal to attract 8,000 immigrants per year. The UNDP ranks Canada first among 174 nations in human development, even though Canada was only one of three rich countries--the other two were Finland and Ireland--considered worse off today than in 1980. Anne Dawson, "Fewer coming to Canada," Toronto Sun, October 29, 1996. Peter Rekai, "Canada's upscale influx," New York Times, September 16, 1996. Pierre Longnus, "Taiwan immigrants to Canada settle in Vancouver," Agence France Presse, August 17, 1996. Pierre Longnus, "Chinese immigrants feeling racism pressure: poll," Agence France Presse, August 18, 1996. "Manitoba, Canada Recruiting Skilled Scottish Workers," Universal News Services, July 5, 1996. _______________________________ Dominican Republic Immigration An estimated 700,000 Dominicans, almost 10 percent of the 7.5 million population of the Dominican Republic, are believed to have emigrated since 1985. About 400,000 were admitted as legal immigrants to the US. Over half of these settled in New York City. The Dominican Republic receives an estimated $1 billion in remittances each year. More Dominicans receive public assistance than any other non- refugee group of immigrants. About 28 percent of the Dominican immigrants who arrived since 1980 have received public assistance for some period of time. Only Vietnamese, at 38 percent, and persons from the ex-USSR, at 33 percent, have higher rates of dependence on public assistance. Dominican President Leonel Fernandez Reyna, who took office in August, 1996, acknowledged in September 1996 that "many Dominican families residing in the United States that have benefited from welfare and food stamps will begin to experience difficulties once this law is promulgated." Reyna, who went to elementary and high school in New York City, urged Dominicans in the US to become US citizens to retain their benefits; the Dominican Republic made dual citizenship legal in 1994. In Reyna's words: "If you... feel the need to adopt the nationality of the United States in order to confront the vicissitudes of that society stemming from the end of the welfare era, do not feel tormented by this.... Do it with a peaceful conscience, for you will continue being Dominicans, and we will welcome you as such when you set foot on the soil of our republic." The US Coast Guard reports that growing numbers of poor people from the Dominican Republic are hiring smugglers to take them on the 18-hour sea journey to Puerto Rico. Those who establish themselves in the US commonwealth have a foothold into the US. The Coast Guard has picked up 4,162 Dominicans at sea in 1996, about the same as in 1995. The 14-nation Caribbean Community or Caricom wants the US to grant the island nations a free-trade status equivalent to that enjoyed by Mexico and Canada, but Congress, reportedly responding to US grower concerns of increased fruit and vegetable imports, did not act in 1996. Angus MacSwan, "Dominican smuggling rings growing problem for US,: Reuters, October 16, 1996. Larry Rohter, "Fewer Immigrant Benefits Do Not Faze Dominicans," New York Times October 12, 1996. Ian Fisher, "A Dominican Leader Receives an Official Embrace," New York Times, October 5, 1996. "Dominican President Criticizes US Immigration Law," Reuters, October 3, 1996. _______________________________ EUROPE _______________________________ EU: Majority Voting on Migration Issues Third Pillar. The European Union agreed on October 2, 1996 to move from unanimity to majority decision-making on immigration, border control, asylum and visa issues, leaving Britain isolated in its refusal to give up its veto on such issues. EU decisions relating to home and judicial affairs under the third pillar of the Maastricht treaty are currently required to be unanimous. Majority rule would be coupled with the right of the EU commission to propose legislation and make immigration decisions subject to scrutiny by the European parliament. In addition, the proposed new structure for dealing with third pillar issues would make the European Court of Justice responsible for settling disputes. Britain is opposed to any extension of the court's jurisdiction. If Britain does not change its position after its expected April, 1997 elections, the other 14 members of the EU will move ahead without Britain. In an October 18 speech, an EU leader called on the European Union to focus on human rights as the key element of a preventive refugee policy. He said that the EU provides humanitarian funds to care for refugees, but does not have a plan to stop refugee flows before they begin. Second, he said that the UNHCR should rewrite its refugee convention, adopted 44 years ago, to take into account the social realities of population displacements today, which are often caused by civil discord, rather than individual persecution by governments. Third, he called upon the IGC to grant the European Court of Justice supervisory powers over EU asylum policy in order to guarantee that asylum seekers will not be returned to unsafe territories. Currently the European Court of Justice has no jurisdiction over asylum decisions made by individual EU nations. France in October rejected a proposal made by the 39-member Council of Europe that advocates a smaller role for national parliaments in dealing with immigration. Britain in October asked the UN to consider recommending that member nations deny asylum to persons "financing, planning and inciting terrorist acts." Critics say that, if the British amendments to the 1951 Geneva refugee convention were adopted, Nelson Mandela could have been denied asylum in Europe and extradited to South Africa as a terrorist. Denmark, Sweden and Finland became full members of the Schengen pact that opens internal European borders. Norway and Iceland, both non-EU members, are associate members, but they pledged to implement some EU legislation, such as EU guidelines on asylum and visa policy. Italy, Austria and Greece hope to become full members of the Schengen agreement in 1997. French officials continue to work on an accord with the Netherlands to control drug sales, so that France would drop its land border controls with Belgium and Luxembourg. French officials continue to accuse the two countries of being transit areas through which Dutch drugs enter France. Population and Unemployment. The population of the 15-member EU, including resident foreigners, reached 373 million on January 1, 1996. In the EU, fertility was less than 1.9 births per woman ranging from 1.9 in Ireland to 1.2 in Italy. There were about four million births and 3.7 million deaths in the EU in 1995, for a natural increase of 300,000. The total population of the EU rose by 800,000 because a net 500,000 immigrants arrived, including 422,000 in Germany and 90,000 in the UK. Ireland and Portugal were net emigration countries. Unemployment in the EU is not likely to fall as EU nations struggle to satisfy the Maastricht requirements for monetary union. With an unemployment rate that is twice the US rate, it may be hard for EU nations to develop immigration policies that anticipate the entry of foreigners seeking jobs, even though every EU country reports shortages of workers with particular skills. The Irish director of the EURES (European Employment Services) asserted in October that there were only two ways to reduce unemployment-- "educate and migrate." Among EU countries, those with the highest unemployment rates have the lowest levels of worker skills and therefore the least mobility. In some cases, there is cross-border migration in Europe to take advantage of wage and tax differences between member countries. For example, hundreds of Swedish nurses reportedly live in Malmo, Sweden and commute daily to jobs in Copenhagen where wages are higher. Sweden is attractive because of lower income taxes. EU member countries must give nationals of other EU member states three-month work and residence permits upon request. But there is no obligation to renew the work and residence permit if the worker does not find employment. According to the Council of Europe, Luxembourg has the highest percentage of foreigners in its population, 32 percent; followed by Switzerland, 19 percent; Germany, nine percent; France, six percent; and the UK, four percent. EU labor and social affairs ministers agreed on September 24, 1996 that an EU employer who sends workers to another EU country must abide by the labor laws of the country to which the workers are sent, including paying minimum wages to EU migrant workers. The new rules are aimed at preventing "social dumping," or taking advantage of wage differences within the EU by using low-wage workers in high-wage countries. The European Court of Justice ruled on October 10, 1996 that spouses of workers entitled under German law to child-rearing benefits may receive those benefits whether or not they live in Germany. Germany had argued that the benefit was originally intended for single parent families and not to benefit spouses residing outside of Germany. The court said that if a benefit is granted without "individual and discretionary assessment of personal needs and if it concerns one of the risks expressly listed in the community regulation," it is subject to the Community regulations for migrant workers. The UK and Portugal dissented. All EU nations will have three years to implement the agreement. Janet McEvoy, "Schengen Group Opens Doors to Nordic Neighbors," Reuters, October 17, 1996. "ELDR President Address on Asylum, Refugee Policy," Reuter European Community Report, October 18, 1996. Padraig Yeates, "More efficient, mobile EU workforce urged," Irish Times, October 11, 1996. "Court Applies Migrant Worker Rules to Child-raising benefits," Reuter European Community Report, October 10, 1996. Angus MacKinnon, "EU pressure mounts on Britain over immigration veto," Agence France Presse, October 2, 1996. "Population: Fewer than four million babies born in EU last year," European Report, October 2, 1996. _______________________________ Germany Returns Bosnians Bosnians. Under an August 1996 agreement between the 16 German states and the Interior Ministry in Bonn, a three- phase repatriation program began October 1, 1996 for the 320,000 Bosnians refugees in Germany. Criminals, single people and childless couples are to leave Germany by March 1997. Some predict that the expulsion orders will push Bosnians underground in Germany, as many try to stay without legal residence papers. Bavaria, Thuringia, Baden-Wurttemberg and Berlin have announced plans to remove the Bosnians by force if necessary. On October 9, 1996, Bavaria forcibly expelled a 29-year old Bosnian who had been convicted of sexual offenses. He had applied for amnesty in January 1996; the application had been rejected. The Chicago Tribune profiled a Serb-Croat woman in Berlin who was raped and beaten by Muslims as she tried to escape from Bosnia and who was the first of 615 Bosnians in a former East Berlin workers' hostel to receive a notice to leave Germany. The woman does not want to return and reportedly is considering seeking political asylum in the Netherlands. But European Union rules make the first EU country's decision on an asylum applicant binding on all other members. Berlin has nearly 30,000 Bosnian refugees. Berlin's interior minister said that Berlin will not send home rape victims and others traumatized by the war until after their medical treatment is completed, but that a majority of the Bosnian refugees should be returned by the end of 1999. The interior minister estimates that caring for the Bosnians costs Berlin between $460 million and $525 million a year. On October 10, 1996, Germany and what remains of Yugoslavia signed an agreement to repatriate over the next three years 135,000 persons whose applications for asylum in Germany were rejected. Many are ethnic Albanians from Kosovo. The Yugoslav interior minister acknowledged that the return of this many people will create difficulties and hoped that the international community would help with resettlement costs, since Yugoslavia did not demand financial assistance from Germany as a condition for taking back its citizens. German interior minister Kanther said that the treaty, which is effective December 1, signals Germany's determination not to allow individuals without legitimate claims to political asylum to remain in the country for extended periods. The accord provides for the return within three years of all refugees from the former Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) who entered Germany before the October 10 signing. Asylum Seekers. The number of foreigners seeking asylum in Germany was 10,742 in September, 1996, compared with 9,548 in August. Between January and September, some 86,643 people applied for asylum in Germany, a drop of six percent from 1995 levels. Of the asylum applications adjudicated, 7.5 percent the applicants were granted asylum in Germany. After 19 months of refuge in a church in Nuremberg, a Turkish family voluntarily returned to Turkey. About 150 foreigners, including 50 in Bavaria, have taken "refuge" in churches. Under "Altfallregelungen"--old cases rules--families in Germany six or more years who can support themselves can continue living in Germany. The number of Aussiedler--ethnic Germans moving from the ex- USSR to Germany--fell from 151,000 in the first nine months of 1995 to 129,300 in the first nine months of 1996. The German Sports Federation has pledged to reduce the number of requests it makes to have foreigners naturalized so that they can play on German teams. The current number of 50 per year is to be reduced to five. "Official urges right to stay for former immigrant workers," Agence France Presse, November 1, 1996. Ray Moseley, "Savaged Bosnia Refugees Afraid to go Home; Germany Plans to Eject Thousands," Chicago Tribune, October 20, 1996. "More Asylum Seekers in Germany," Deutsche Presse-Agentur, October 14, 1996. "Germany and Yugoslavia Sign Treaty of Return of Refugees, Bavaria Expels Bosnian," This Week in Germany, October 11, 1996. Alan Cowell, "Bavaria Expels Bosnian War Refugees," New York Times, October 10, 1996. _______________________________ France: New Immigration Legislation? The French government in October proposed legislation to crack down on immigrants employed in the underground economy. If enacted into law, France would offer legal residence rights to illegal immigrants who have a French spouse or French children, or have been employed in France for at least 15 years, or would face serious danger if sent home. The bill does not offer permanent residence to illegal immigrant parents of children born in France. French leftists and human rights groups criticized the proposed immigration reforms. One the one hand, the new law would boost state controls on foreign residents and reduce judicial safeguards that prevent deportation. On the other hand, the legislation would remove provisions from immigration law that have deprived some immigrants of residence rights. These provisions led to the recent protests by African immigrants who occupied a Paris church. On October 26, between 100 to 150 protesters took over a Paris center for foreigners to demand residence permits and a halt to expulsions. French sociologist Claude-Valentin Marie, in an October 15, 1996 Le Monde article, argued that the government's attempt to crack down on illegal immigration might damage the French economy. The article pointed out that legal and illegal immigrant workers serve as shock absorbers during economic restructuring and argued that reducing the number of flexible immigrant workers may therefore make restructuring more difficult. The report put the total number of foreign workers dismissed from heavy manufacturing industry jobs between 1973 and 1988 at 500,000. Many laid-off foreign workers entered the underground economy. According to Marie, 90 percent of those employed in the underground economy are French citizens or legal immigrants. The National Front, the political party with the slogan "France for the French," is only about 15 years old, but it won 15 percent of the vote in the first round of the 1995 presidential elections, and it frequently wins 30 to 35 percent of the vote in local elections. The National Front has attracted support among police and transportation workers. On October 16, the National Assembly approved an amendment that would allow the government to prosecute under anti- racism laws statements that do not single out a particular race or religion when making derogatory comments. On October 20, about 30 Africans evicted from a Paris church two months ago briefly re-occupied the building, protesting tough immigration measures that are keeping them in a legal limbo. Police ringed the church and by late afternoon the Africans left. French police arrested 17 people who brought in hundreds of illegal immigrants from Sri Lanka over the past eight years. The illegal immigrants paid about $800 to be flown from Sri Lanka to Kiev, and then be driven to France through Poland, Germany and Switzerland. They were then housed in Paris suburbs and given forged documents to show in applying for political asylum. Sri Lankans who find themselves stranded in Poland simply apply for asylum there. In one week in September, about 700 illegal immigrants were caught in Poland, including 168 in two houses in a village near Warsaw. Most applied for asylum in order to prevent their immediate deportation. Poland's Ministry of Internal Affairs estimates the number of illegal aliens in Poland at 100,000 to 200,000. "Police evict immigrants from Paris offices," Reuters, October 29, 1996. "Poland: A Gateway to Heaven," Polish News Bulletin, October 17, 1996. "France adopts new law to fight racism," Xinhua News Agency, October 16, 1996. "Immigrants contribute to modernization of French economy," Xinhua News Agency, October 15, 1996. "Patijn Annoyed with French Misuse of Schengen Accord," ANP English News Bulletin, October 11, 1996. "France smashes network smuggling illegal immigrants," Reuters, October 9, 1996. "France to close loopholes in immigration law," Reuters, October 8, 1996. _______________________________ Morocco and Spain to Fight Illegal Immigration Spain and Morocco on October 3, 1996, announced new measures to combat illegal immigration. The two countries will establish joint commissions to study the problems of illegal immigration and drug smuggling. Spain has been criticized by other members of the Schengen Group for lax border controls which allow illegal immigrants and drugs to enter the EU. Illegal immigrants from Morocco cross the 12-mile Strait of Gibraltar between the two Africa and Europe. Others try to enter the two Spanish enclaves on Morocco's Mediterranean coast, Ceuta and Melilla, which include an estimated 700 illegal immigrants. Morocco will, on a case-by-case basis, readmit illegal African immigrants who arrive in Spain directly from Morocco. A Moroccan fisherman taking 26 Moroccans to Spain for 4,000 dirhams ($460) pleaded guilty to causing their deaths in October--the boat sank in the Strait of Gibraltar, and all drowned. The European Court of Justice said that member states must recognize the Cooperation Agreement between Morocco and the EU by giving social security benefits to Moroccans living in the EU. "Moroccans die in Gibraltar Strait," United Press International October 11, 1996. "Spain and Morocco to tackle illegal immigration and drugs," Deutsche Presse-Agentur, October 3, 1996. "Court says states must give resident Moroccans benefits," Reuters, October 3, 1996. _______________________________ Netherlands Expects Increase in Immigration The Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics reported on October 8, 1996 that the improving economic climate of the Netherlands is expected to increase immigration 11 percent in 1996. Immigration fell sharply in 1994 after stricter rules were introduced. Most immigrants to the Netherlands come from Germany, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Morocco and Surinam. The number of immigrants from Turkey, Morocco and Surinam is expected to rise by 32, 48 and 52 per cent between 1995 and 1996, respectively, while an eight per cent rise in immigrants is expected from the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba. The Netherlands, long known for toleration, is beginning to take steps that some see as necessary to integrate foreigners, and others see as racism. One politician proposed that all foreigners from outside the European Union wishing to live permanently in Holland would have to learn Dutch and take "lessons in social assimilation and career guidance courses." The number of asylum seekers in 1994 reached 52,576, in part because the Netherlands was perceived to be more generous than neighboring countries. As the Netherlands cracked down on asylum seekers, many were detained in a converted army barracks known as Willem II that was opened to asylum seekers in May 1994. There have been a series of hunger strikes and suicides by asylum seekers protesting what they say is very harsh treatment. In the Netherlands, illegal immigrants are subject to the provisions of the Dutch criminal law, and thus, can be ordered to work while detained. In the spring of 1996, the Netherlands was holding 700 asylum seekers, mostly North Africans. Morocco asked the Dutch government to legalize the status of the Moroccans living in the country without proper documentation. Nearly 200,000 Moroccans live in the Netherlands. Dutch police on October 16 announced the arrest of 30 people who ran a worldwide alien smuggling network. One smuggler made travel arrangements for Iraqis and Iranians to fly to the Ukraine or Austria, where they would be supplied with forged documents and an airline ticket to the Netherlands. Other members of the smuggling ring would help the illegal immigrants with asylum applications in the Netherlands. Many of the smuggled immigrants went on to Canada after a short stay in the Netherlands. "Morocco, Netherlands to combat drugs, criminals," Reuters, October 30, 1996. "International 'Frontier Running' Network Cracked, 30 Arrested," ANP English News Bulletin, October 17, 1996. "Strong economy could be behind sharp rise in 1996 immigration," ANP English News Bulletin, October 8, 1996. Georgie Anne Geyer, "Dutch move to control immigration," Chicago Tribune, September 13, 1996 _______________________________ ASIA _______________________________ Migration between Two Koreas China and South Korea are reportedly building refugee camps to handle what some expect to be a hunger-induced mass emigration from North Korea of up to five million people this winter. South Korea's Ministry of National Unification has sought 4.6 billion won ($5.6 million) in the fiscal 1997 budget to build a refugee camp south of Seoul. In recent years, about 100 North Koreans have moved to South Korea each year. It is easier for North Koreans to move to China, because that border is not heavily mined: 1,000 North Koreans are believed to have moved to China since 1992, blending into ethnic Korean communities in the Chinese border provinces of Jilin and Liaoning. But those who are caught meet a harsh fate. Under a 1986 treaty, illegal North Koreans apprehended in China are returned to North Korea, where most are executed. In some cases, an entire village is punished for the defection of one villager. Within North Korea, there is reported to be a reverse migration from cities to farms in search of food. Some 400 North Koreans are refusing to return home from logging camps in the Russian Far East. North Korea has offered resort and beach facilities for the hundreds of South Korean workers expected to enter the country when construction of its new nuclear reactors begins later in 1996. The South Korean Ministry of Labor is currently drafting a new foreign labor employment act which would extend basic labor rights to foreign workers if their employment was approved by the government. The act would also require employers with foreign workers to post a bond with a bank or insurance company that would be refunded when the foreign worker returns to his/her native country. South Korea is considering hiring foreign workers to construct the country's first high-speed train line. An official at the Ministry of Construction and Transportation said that foreign workers were needed because of high wages and labor shortages. In addition to South Korean workers, 570 foreign workers will be employed for three years, beginning in 1997. The government hopes to complete the 250-mile track in time for the 2002 World Soccer Cup. Japan and South Korea will share the World Cup soccer tournament in 2002, with half of the games to be played in each country. Both countries are already making plans to change their immigration laws to facilitate the movement of players, trainers and fans between the two countries without unleashing illegal immigration. South Koreans currently need a visa to visit Japan, while South Korea permits Japanese visitors to enter South Korea for up to 15 days without a visa. In January 1996, there were 135,686 foreign workers in South Korea, including 51,301 legal workers and 84,385 illegal workers. At the end of May, 1996, according to government estimates, the number of illegal foreign workers had risen to 100,000, accounting for 60 percent of the foreign workers in the country. The legal foreign workers included 8,539 professional and technological personnel, and 42,762 industrial technology trainees. Most of the illegal migrant workers are from China and other Asian countries. Many of the foreign workers from China are ethnic Koreans. South Korea's labor shortages were most acute in 1991, when almost 10 percent of all manufacturing jobs were vacant. In 1992, the government reported that 61,126 illegal foreigners were working in South Korea. In 1993, 20,000 foreign trainees were admitted and in February 1996, the trainee quota was raised to 70,000. Trainees come from 12 Asian countries, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Myanmar (Burma), Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan. South Korea plans a crackdown on illegal foreign workers in November 1996. The crackdown will focus on service industries such as restaurants, entertainment venues and factories. Two similar crackdowns in the past 12 months resulted in the deportation of 8,500 illegal foreign workers. There are three types of illegal foreign workers in South Korea. Most are foreigners who enter South Korea on tourist visas and then go to work. The second type enters South Korea on a false passport or is smuggled into the country and hopes to stay and work. The third type of illegal foreigner is a trainee who abandons the traineeship to work illegally. As of January 1996, about 12,000 foreigners left their traineeships to work illegally. South Korea's economy is expected to grow by 6.5 percent in 1996, down from nine percent in 1995. South Korean-owned factories outside Korea have a reputation for harsh treatment of local workers. South Korean companies invested $2.75 billion abroad in 1995, but from China to Vietnam to Argentina, local workers complain that their Korean managers vigorously resist unions, demean workers and expect overly hard work. They may have local government support in this: In Pakistan, a South Korean construction firm sent a letter to police listing the names of union- sympathizer employees and all were detained. South Koreans own sewing and apparel shops around the world. In Argentina, South Korean-owned textile firms typically hire illegal Bolivian immigrant day laborers for $3 per day and do not pay social security or other taxes. "Crackdown on illegal foreign workers looming," Agence France Presse, October 28, 1996. "S. Korea's Foreign Labor Relations," Chicago Tribune, October 27, 1996. "South Korea: Foreign Workers to Receive Basic Labor Rights," Korea Economic Daily, October 5, 1996. "South Korea to import Southeast Asian workers for train project," Agence France Presse, September 24, 1996. "Korean bosses anger workers overseas," Wall Street Journal, July 23, 1996. "Simplified Employment Procedures Foreseen for Foreign Workers," Comline Daily News, July 11, 1996. "Number of Illegal Workers Rising in South Korea," Reuter Asia-Pacific Business Report, July 7, 1996. Song Byoung-jun, "Labor Shortages & Foreign Workers," Tokyo Financial Wire, March 28, 1996. Shim Jae Hoon, "Hunger could trigger an exodus of refugees from North Korea and bring the country to its knees," Far Eastern Economic Review, October 10, 1996. _______________________________ Singapore: Foreign Workers and Productivity In September 1996, Singapore reached its highest-ever level of foreign worker employment, when the 350,000 foreign workers reached 20 percent of the country's 1.7 million work force. The government in 1996 launched campaigns against illegal immigration and to promote on the job safety. One result is that many contractors are requesting one- to two-month extensions on construction projects because their sub- contractors cannot find enough workers. The number of illegal immigrants apprehended has been rising. An average of 580 illegal immigrants and overstayers were arrested each month between March and September, 1996. Heavy fines have not deterred the employment of illegal workers, including a $1.5 million fine for having 188 illegal foreign workers at one job site. Singapore's Minister for Home Affairs began a Construction Safety campaign on October 12, 1996 to improve the safety of foreign workers on the job. In 1996, there has been an average of one fatal accident a week involving foreign workers at construction sites and about one murder involving foreign workers each month. Singapore is attempting to upgrade the skills and productivity of its economy. In a Foreign Affairs article in 1994 entitled "The Myth of Asia's Miracle," economist Paul Krugman argued that countries such as Singapore grew by increasing the amount of capital and labor, not by increasing the productivity of each worker or unit of capital. Singapore Airlines, with 23,000 employees, is the island- nation's largest employer. "Projects held up by labor crackdown," UPI, October 30, 1996. Sharon Vasoo, "High price of relying too much on low-cost workers," Straits Times, October 12, 1996. "Dependence on foreign workers poses social problems for Singapore," Xinhua News Agency, October 11, 1996. _______________________________ Malaysia: Recruitment Ban Continues Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced on October 12 that the government would continue the ban on permits to import unskilled foreign workers first imposed on July 10, 1996. Malaysia still needs foreign workers, Anwar said, but labor-short companies should recruit illegal immigrants from detention centers. According to Anwar, "if they [employers] need foreign workers they can always go to the camps and hire these [illegal] people." However, of the 37,000 detained illegal workers available to employers in October 1996, only 3,000 were hired. Most Malaysian companies say that the illegal aliens in detention centers have too few skills. Employers with illegal foreign workers are supposed to register them with the Immigration Department by December 31, 1996 and to have a physical exam. Employers can continue to apply for permission to import skilled foreign workers, with applications considered on a case-by-case basis. Anwar said there were 750,000 foreign workers with work permits in Malaysia and one million illegal aliens. The legal foreign workers include 306,000 from Indonesia and 117,500 Bangladeshis; others are from the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Burma. According to Anwar, Malaysia will reduce the number of foreign workers to reduce the social problems they cause. There have been several clashes in 1996 between Bangladeshis and Malays. Anwar asked Indonesia and Bangladesh to cooperate by preventing the movement of their nationals to Thailand on their way to Malaysia. The Malaysian Human Resources minister also warned employers that they face sanctions if they lay off Malaysian workers before dismissing foreign workers. The government is investigating two factories in Jahor that laid off 87 Malays and retained 119 foreign workers. In order to speed up repatriations and encourage the hiring of illegal workers in detention, Malaysia began requiring employers bringing foreign workers into the country to pay a fee equivalent to repatriation expenses for 25 per cent of the number of workers who arrive, e.g., to admit 100 foreign workers, the employer must pay for the repatriation of 25. Malaysia is a country of 19 million with a labor force of eight million, including one to two million foreigners. The Malaysian Trades Union Congress estimates three million foreign workers. The economy has been growing at an annual rate of eight to nine percent, the labor force at an annual rate of two to three percent and employment at an annual rate of three to four percent. One result of rapid economic and job growth are labor shortages, estimated to be five to 10 percent of current employment in plantation agriculture (250,000 employees) and manufacturing (1.4 million employees). Malaysia has had a stop-go policy on foreign worker recruitment. On October 16, 1991, the Malaysian government announced an "amnesty" that permitted the employers of illegal alien workers to register them and pay a fee of M$420 in most cases, and some 447,000 illegal aliens equivalent to six percent of Malaysian employment registered by June 30, 1992. In April 1993, unskilled foreign worker recruitment was suspended but, after employers protested the recruitment freeze was lifted for manufacturers in June 1993. On January 7, 1994, recruitment of unskilled and semi-skilled workers from outside the country was stopped, but was later permitted on a sector-by-sector basis. The New Straits Times reported on October 9, 1996 that two- thirds of 1996 Malaysian employer requests for 210,249 foreign workers, including 106,000 of 141,300 requests from the manufacturing sector, have been approved. On October 18, 1996, Malaysia announced proposals that would increase penalties to deter illegal immigrants, including a proposal to cane illegal workers and their employers if they are caught twice. Under current law, illegal immigrants face RM$1,000 ($400) fines, several months imprisonment and deportation, while Malaysian employers face fines of $800 and imprisonment for several months. The new penalties are expected to be approved by parliament before the end of 1996. On October 28, Malaysian officials reported that nearly 30,000 Bangladeshis were massing in southern Thailand in a bid to illegally enter Malaysia. Many were trying to enter Malaysia through the hills along the border or by sea. The Malaysian government mobilized about 6,000 members from the civilian national guard to help police the Malaysian-Thai border. Many Indonesians and Bangladeshis are smuggled into Malaysia on fishing boats for fees that average about $1,000. The Malaysian press blames foreign workers for committing a disproportionate number of crimes. However, of the 10,623 serious crimes committed in Malaysia in 1995, 628 were committed by foreign workers. Of the 70,798 minor crimes, 2,197 involved foreigners. The Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers advised its member- employers to be more diligent when hiring foreign workers. Some Malaysian firms are paid RM1,000 ($400) for each foreign worker they hire from a recruitment agency, which allegedly encourages the hiring of unauthorized foreign workers. According the International Trade and Industry ministry, some company officers were allegedly receiving under-the-table payments for recruiting foreign workers from certain agents. The official said that this may explain why companies are not hiring detained illegal aliens who have been given work permits. According to the government, Bangladeshi workers are subject to criticism because of their social differences and their tendency to marry local women. The government printed pamphlets "to educate women on the consequences they will have to face if they still decide to marry foreigners." One Malaysian government minister said that marriages of convenience by Bangladeshi and Indian foreign workers would increase social problems in the Malaysia. Merbok Wanita Chief Rosnah Majid warned that "We [Malaysia] should learn from the German experience where foreign workers had caused a lot of problems." "30,000 illegal massing at border to enter Malaysia," Straits Times, October 25, 1996. "Retrench foreign workers first, Malaysia warns employers," Deutsche Presse-Agentur, October 30, 1996. "Malaysia says stop importing foreign workers," Reuters Financial Service, October 12, 1996. Hamisah Hamid, "Be alert when hiring aliens, employers told," Business Times, October 10, 1996. "Find long-term measures to overcome labour shortage," New Straits Times, October 10, 1996. "JAIP works with Immigration on marriage issue," New Straits Times, October 9, 1996. Michael Richardson, "Malaysia Readies a Crackdown on Illegal Workers," International Herald Tribune, October 7, 1996. _______________________________ Thailand: From Illegals to Guest Workers Foreign Workers. According to the Interior Ministry, of the 590,000 illegal immigrants in Thailand in mid-1995, about 300,000 came from Burma, 100,000 from China, and 10,000 each from Cambodia and Laos. Under new rules, employers are required to legalize their illegal workers by paying a fee and registering them with the Immigration Police. The legalized migrants will be granted two work permits and only those employed in agriculture, construction, fishing and water transportation can be legalized. As of October 11, only 27,536 immigrant workers had been registered and passed medical examinations, less than four per cent of the estimated illegal labor force of 700,000. Most employers complain that the 5,000 baht (US$200) registration fee is to stiff. On November 17, a new general election will be held in Thailand and many wonder it the legalization program will be continued by a new government. When the government legalized the presence of many illegal immigrants in June 1996, trade unions protested that foreign workers put downward pressure on wages. Bangkok has become the Asian hub for organizing travel for illegal Chinese immigrants to Europe and the US. Stolen passports, primarily from Korea and Japan, are sent to Bangkok and sold for $2,000 to $3,000 each. Genuine passports from Bolivia, Honduras, Argentina and Belize can be bought for $12,000 to $32,000. Smugglers can fly a Chinese migrant to the US from Beijing as a bogus member of a trade delegation for about $18,000. Ships have lost their popularity because of the difficulty entering ports without detection. In 1995, investigators found that a subcontractor hired by shoe giant Reebok was paying ethnic Karen refugees from Burma working in Thailand less than half of the minimum wages paid their Thai counterparts. A professor at Mahidol University in Thailand told a seminar on October 5, 1996 that the government should not attempt to lure foreign investors with offers of cheap labor. He found that in a random survey most foreigners are paid a quarter of what their Thai counterparts earn for the same jobs. This situation, he added, might subject Thailand to trade sanctions by Western countries who regard labor exploitation as a violation of human rights. The Thailand Development Research Institute is now completing a study on the advantages and disadvantages of employing foreign workers. Internal Migration. On October 13, 1996, some Thai workers held a march to demand that migrant Thai workers be allowed to vote at their work places. There are believed to be five million internal migrant workers who are employed away from the address where they are registered as living and voting. Since voting in Thailand must be done in person, many will not be able to vote in the November 17 general election. Unions asked that internal migrants be able to use their employer's address and vote where they are employed. Thailand raised its daily minimum wage to 157 baht ($6.19) on October 1, 1996. Peter Janssen, "Thailand squeezes black market out of immigrant labour trade," Deutsche Presse-Agentur, October 28, 1996. "Workers Announce Demands," Bangkok Post, October 14, 1996. Sirikul Bunnang, "Open Door Policy for Foreigners a Mistake," Bangkok Post, October 5, 1996. Onnucha Hutasingh, "Thai-Cambodian Relations--Plight of Immigrants in Bangkok not as Good as They Hope," Bangkok Post, September 8, 1996. Kim Gooi, "Bangkok is Asia's hub for the illegal travel business," Presse-Agentur, September 23, 1996. Tina Gill, "Foreign Labor Pains Thai Unions," InterPress Service, September 2, 1996. _______________________________ Vietnam Restricts Foreigner Workers Vietnam in October 1996 announced new rules for the employment of foreigners. Foreigners working in joint venture and wholly foreign-owned companies will be limited to a stay of three years in the country and foreign-owned companies will be required to train local replacements for their foreign staff. Most foreigners with business visas will also have to apply for work permits. Those exempt from the new rules include diplomats, employees of non-government organizations, foreign media and executives in company representative offices. About two million Vietnamese live outside Vietnam, including one million in the US. Overseas Vietnamese remit an estimated $600 to $700 million annually. Vietnam hopes that its Diaspora will stimulate foreign investment. Some 265,000 "Viet kieu" returned for at least brief visits in 1995, but they registered only 58 investment projects, worth about $100 million. Many of the 400 US companies operating in Vietnam are pressing Congress to grant a waiver of the Jackson-Vanick Amendment, which withholds government-guaranteed financing of trade with countries that do not allow free emigration. "Vietnam curbs foreign workers," Financial Times, October 10, 1996. Seth Mydans, "Uncertainty Reigns for Returning Vietnamese," New York Times, August 3, 1996. _______________________________ OTHER _______________________________ UAE Expels Migrants The United Arab Emirates in October continued to expel thousands of illegal migrants, leading, in at least one case, to labor shortages. Foreigners make up about 75 percent of the 2.4 million population in the UAE. Illegal foreign workers were ordered to leave the UAE in August and the original September 30, 1996 deadline was extended to October 31, 1996. Most of the illegal workers are from India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. Most arrived legally and then stayed after their visas expired or illegally changed jobs. The UAE reports that as of early October, some 145,000 foreigners from India, the Philippines, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Iran had left. Many of the Indians wishing to leave cannot afford the airfare home, so the Indian government is sending boats to bring Indian workers home. The Indian state of Kerala expects about 30,000 migrants to return from the UAE. Tough new penalties on illegal aliens go into effect on November 1, 1996, including fines of up to 30,000 dirhams ($8,200) and three years in jail. Boat owners bringing illegal aliens into the country face up to 15 years in prison and fines of between 15,000 dirhams and 100,000 dirhams ($4,100 - $27,000). The Philippine government reports that about 6,000 Filipinos in the UAE plan to leave before the October 31, 1996 deadline. Three out of four Filipinos working abroad are the sole supporter of their families. The Manila labor monitor, Migrante, found that within one month of their return, most foreign workers are broke. Many of the Filipinos who leave the UAE are expected to seek employment in other countries. King Fahd of Saudi Arabia on October 21 called on Saudi private businesses to employ more Saudi workers. The announcement came three days after the Saudi government refused to renew residency permits for foreign workers in 13 occupations, including guards, receptionists and administrators. Saudi Arabia in October 1996 barred foreign laborers from driving or owning cars, according to the Filipino Overseas Workers Welfare Administration. Foreigners classified as watchmen and servants are not affected by the ban. There are about 600,000 Filipinos working in Saudi Arabia as domestic helpers, manual laborers and technicians. "Saudi king calls on private sector to hire more Saudi laborers," Xinhua News Agency, October 22, 1996. "More Saudis to replace foreigners," UPI, October 24, 1996. "Filipino laborers in Saudi Arabia banned from driving, owning cars," Agence France Presse, October 10, 1996. Edgar C. Cadano, "Labour nationalization plan needs evaluation, expert tells Gulf firms," Moneyclips, October 7, 1996. "UAE says 144,979 illegal workers have left," Reuters, October 7, 1996. "Asian nations count cost of UAE expulsion of illegal workers," Agence France Presse, October 6, 1996. _______________________________ Immigration in Africa Throughout Africa in 1996, illegal immigrants were expelled by countries who blamed them for everything from spreading AIDS to crime and unemployment. Rising unemployment in immigrant-dependent Middle Eastern countries lead to the expulsion of tens of thousands of immigrants from Saudi Arabia and migrant workers in other Middle Eastern countries face increased work permit fees and other measures aimed at reducing immigrant numbers. South Africa, with a per capita income of $3,000--is attracting immigrants from other parts of Africa. The stock of immigrants is estimated at two to four million. The major countries of origin include Mozambique, with a per capita income of less than $100, Malawi and Zaire. In October 1996, South Africa announced that it would tighten visa issuance procedures after more than 90 000 Zimbabweans violated the terms of their six-month visas in 1995-96. Most of the illegal African migrants work in the informal sector of South Africa's economy as street peddlers or day laborers. On July 22, 1996, the South African government announced that foreigners without "special skills" would be banned from working in the country. Polls suggest that most South Africans associate illegal immigrants with unemployment, homelessness and crime. However, many of the countries of origin sheltered African National Congress members during apartheid and South Africa recently agreed to Mozambique's request that it slow down the deportation of illegal Mozambicans. South Africa granted a temporary right to stay for nationals of Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, Angola, Ethiopia and Liberia. This gives nationals of Zaire and Mozambique incentives to claim that they are from one of these nations. South Africa is considering an amnesty, a guest worker program or an arrangement in which increased aid to neighboring countries is tied to stepped-up enforcement. South Africa still employs about 170,000 foreign miners to work in gold and diamond mines. In September 1996, wages were raised eight to 13 percent for 190,000 miners. There has been a dramatic increase in emigration by South Africans with professional or technical skills. There was a first quarter increase of 27 percent in 1996 of the total number of emigrants over the same period last year. The number of immigrants in the same period decreased by 21 percent. Some observers say that rising crime and fears about education standards are causing the increased emigration and decreased immigration rates. Zimbabwe will refuse to renew work permits for foreigner professionals to make room for Zimbabwe professionals returned from South Africa. In Cabora Bassa, Songo, in Mozambique's Tete Province, 900 Mozambican workers staged a sit in at a dam-power plant to protest the higher wages and benefits paid to Portuguese workers. In August, 1996 Angolan police arrested more than 800 illegal immigrants in a crackdown on illegal immigrants in the province of Luanda. Called Operation Cancer III, illegal immigrants from Mali, Lebanon and Senegal have been deported. The police plan to extend the operation to other provinces in the to arrest illegal immigrants reportedly from Bulgaria, Russia and Portugal. More than 1,000 foreigners were arrested in Luanda Norte province during the past six months. Most were Zairians involved in diamond smuggling. Gambia used to be considered the gateway to Europe and the United States. Many African migrants went to Gambia because of the country's open-door policy for professionals. Relatively high salaries attracted medical doctors, lawyers and accountants, but most of the Ghanaians, Nigerians, Guineans, Sierra Leoneans and Liberians in Gambia are teachers who planned to use Gambia as a stepping stone to Europe or the US, but were unable to get visas and remained. Many were lured to Gambia by stories of West African professionals, especially teachers, who ended up in Europe, Canada or the US after working for a year or two in Gambia. The rising cost of living in Gambia and stepped up enforcement in Europe, Canada and the US, has encouraged some foreign teachers to return home, or to try their luck in neighboring Senegal. Some try to reach Spain from Senegal via Mauritania and Morocco. Both poverty and wealth have increased in Egypt since 1991 when the country opened itself to foreign trade and investment. Egypt has 61 million people with an average income of $750 per year; 57 percent of the population lived below the poverty line of $226 per person per year in 1990- 91. At the other extreme, the richest six million Egyptians had about 28 percent of the country's national income. Lansana Fofana, "Gambia-Population: Migrants' Dreams Turn to Dust," InterPress Service, October 15, 1996. "Calm maybe in Cabora Bassa," Indian Ocean Newsletter, October 12, 1996. "Crackdown on illegal immigrants in Angola continues," Deutsche Presse-Agentur, August 14, 1996. "S. Africa bans foreign workers without "special skills." Agence France Presse, July 23, 1996. Ken Wells, "Waves of immigrants consider South Africa a land of opportunity," Wall Street Journal, April 2, 1996. _______________________________ Australian Race Debate Heats Up On October 30, Australia's political leaders issued a joint statement in the Parliament opposing racism. The debate on race in Australia was sparked by, a September 10, 1996 speech by a newly elected member of Parliament that called for a moratorium on immigration, since Australia was "in danger of being swamped by Asians." On October 31, Pauline Hanson, a Queensland MP, challenged the government by demanding a referendum on immigration and multiculturalism. Hanson issued a statement saying she supported parts of the statement opposing racism, but vowed to continue her anti-Asian immigration and anti-Aboriginal funding message. Recent polls show that as many as two- thirds of Australians back her call for a halt to immigration. The number of immigrants arriving in Australia rose to 99,139 in the fiscal year ending June 30, 1996. The three leading countries of origin were New Zealand (12.4 percent), Britain (11.4 percent), and China (11.3 percent). Australia's conservative government announced in July, 1996 that general immigration would be reduced to 74,000 in the current fiscal year that ends June 30, 1997. A Newspoll survey in September 1996 reported that 71 percent of 1,200 voters surveyed believed immigration was "a lot" or "a little" too high. Nearly 2,000 Australians marched in Brisbane on November 2 in solidarity with Asian Australians and to protest the Australian Prime Minister's failure to deal with the race issue. Since September, many Asian tourists, including a group of 160 from Singapore, have bypassed Australia, hurting the country's billion-dollar tourism industry. Nearly two million tourists from Asian countries visit Australia each year. Some 28,670 people emigrated from Australia in the fiscal year ending June 30, 1996. Winston Peters, leader of the populist New Zealand First Party, received 13 percent of the vote in New Zealand's October 12, 1996 election on an anti-foreigner platform. New Zealand adopted a German-style voting system in 1993 and, for the first time, each voter can vote for a party and also for a local representative. Anita Jain, "Singaporeans stay away from Australia," UPI, November 1, 1996. Luke Slattery, "Australian premier appeals for calm over racism row," The Scotsman, November 1, 1996. Kiichiro Harano, "Australian legislator's remarks anger Asian media," Daily Yomiuri, November 2, 1996. "Australian race debate MP demands referendum" Agence France Presse, October 31, 1996. S. Karene Witcher, "New Zealand politics turn tumultuous," Wall Street Journal, October 9, 1996. _______________________________ RESOURCES _______________________________ Slow Advancement for the Newly-Legalized The Houston Chronicle ran a series, Out of the Shadows, which concluded that many of the aliens legalized in 1986-87 are falling into America's dead-end culture of urban poverty. In addition to profiles of unauthorized aliens who received amnesty, the series includes interviews with Peter Brimelow, who says that "There is no precedent for a sovereign country undergoing such a rapid and radical transformation of its ethnic character [brought about by the 1965 amendments to US immigration law] in the entire history of the world." Julian Simon, by contrast, asserted that "On average, when an immigrant comes into the country, natives are made richer." Immigrants pay more in taxes than they receive in government benefits because they are young and likely to work. George Borjas argued that the costs of today's immigration patterns outweigh the benefits, and that gap between the level of education and skills of recent immigrants and natives have been widening. Michael Fix, co-author of Immigration and Immigrants: Setting the Record Straight, concluded that immigrants generate a net annual surplus for the US of $25 billion to $30 billion per year. Roy Beck, author of The Case Against Immigration, argues that much of the increase in US wages between 1925 and 1965 was due to tight labor markets, which in turn was due to low levels of immigration. The entire series is available at: http://www.chron.com/amnesty _______________________________ Working Papers on Immigration Issues Borjas, George, and Lynnette Hilton. 1996. Immigration and the Welfare State: Immigrant Participation in Means-Tested Entitlement Programs. NBER WP 5372. In 1990, about nine percent of US households with foreign- born heads received cash assistance such as AFDC, versus seven percent of households headed by US-born persons. However, if in-kind welfare assistance such as Medicaid and Food Stamps are included, then 21 percent of households with foreign-born heads received benefits in 1990, versus 14 percent of households headed by US-born persons. Note that many other analysts of the usage of welfare by immigrants do not consider the household to be an immigrant household if the head was born in another country. One estimate is that two-thirds of immigrant-headed households include a US-born person. Households with foreign-born heads received more assistance-- such households were nine percent of all US households, but they received 14 percent of the $184 billion spent on federal welfare assistance in 1990. The gap between foreign-born and native-born households was greatest for Medicaid--15 percent of the immigrant households, and seven percent of native-born households, received Medicaid benefits in 1990. Hanson, Gordon and Antonio Spilmbergo. 1996. Illegal Immigration, Border Enforcement, and Relative Wages. NBER WP 5592. This paper concludes that a 10 percent decrease in Mexican real wages was associated with about eight percent more apprehensions in the following month between 1976 and 1995. Adding one more hour of Border Patrol enforcement time was associated with about 0.3 more apprehensions. Hanson, Gordon. 1996. US-Mexican Integration and Regional Economies: Evidence from Border-City Pairs. NBER WP 5485. This paper investigates the growth of trade and investment in the six largest US-Mexican border pairs between 1975 and 1989, and concludes that NAFTA will expand employment and population on both sides of the border. Krueger, Alan and Jorn-Steffen Pischke. 1996. A Statistical Analysis of Crime Against Foreigners in Unified Germany. NBER WP 5485. Using data on the number of crimes committed against foreigners from newspaper reports, this paper finds that crimes against foreigners are highest in the former East Germany and that the number of foreigners in a county is associated with more crimes against foreigners only in the East. Borjas, George, Richard Freeman, and Lawrence Katz. 1996. Searching for the Effects of Immigration on the Labor Market. NBER WP 5454. This paper compares area and factor proportions methods of estimating the effects of immigrants in local labor markets. In area analyses, the share of immigrants in employment, or the change in the share of immigrants, is an independent variable that is used to try to explain changes in the wages, unemployment etc of native workers. As the labor market expands, the estimated negative effects of immigrants increase in 1980 and 1990 Census data. In factor-proportions analyses, by contrast, the analyst assumes that e.g., immigrants are unskilled, and natives are skilled, and then estimates the effects of more immigrants on skilled workers' labor market outcomes. These analyses suggest that immigration contributed to falling wages for US workers with less than a high school education in the 1980s. Raphael, Steven and Eugene Smolensky. 1996. Immigration, Foregone Human Capital, and the Fisc. Berkeley: Graduate School of Public Policy WP 224. If Prop. 187 prohibitions on the estimated 300,000 to 350,000 illegal alien children in California public schools were implemented, and if the children stayed in California and were not educated, then the illegal children not educated would earn from $62,000 to $430,000 less in their lifetimes, with the largest earnings losses for illegal alien children kept out of kindergarten and not receiving any education. Since more education is associated with higher earnings and more taxes, the analysis suggests that denying education to persons who remain in California and seek jobs could be counterproductive. Research Perspectives on Migration is a new bi-monthly newsletter produced by the migration programs of the Carnegie Endowment and the Urban Institute. The first issue, September/October 1996, deals with the use of welfare by foreign-born persons in the US and concludes that there is too little consensus in the social science research to serve as a basis for changing the legal immigration system in a manner that would attempt to reduce the welfare costs of immigrants. For further information, contact David Aronson at email@example.com The Carnegie Endowment's International Migration Policy Program issued several brief papers on migration issues in 1996. The first paper, entitled Managing Uncertainty, argues that the immigration problem flows from unwanted immigration, compassion fatigue, and reactions against global interdependence. The paper concludes that the most important steps needed to deal with immigration are to have "sound" polices that are reviewed regularly, and to prevent "anti- immigrant demagogues" from shaping public opinion. The "US Refugee Policy" paper reviews resettlement, temporary protection, asylum, and emergency responses to migration crises. The paper cautions against too much reliance on the prevention of refugees, and urges that the US continue to offer protection to those facing persecution. The "Converging Paths to Restriction" paper reviews how governments in France, Italy, and the UK responded to immigration and asylum issues. For copies of these reports, contact Yasmin Santiago at tel (202) 862-7982 or fax 202-862- 3750.