UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
*********************************************************************
This newsletter is being made available by the Population Information
network (POPIN) Gopher of the United Nations Population Division,
Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, in
collaboration with Population Communications International. For further
information, please contact Patrice_Newman@together.org
*********************************************************************
INTERNATIONAL DATELINE
A Population and Development News
and Information Service
July/August 1995
JULY/AUGUST WORLD POPULATION UPDATE:
5,709,000,000 (Population Reference Bureau)
THE DRAMATIC DROP IN THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF CHILDREN BORN TO EACH
MOTHER IN THE THIRD WORLD HAS NOT DEFUSED THE POPULATION BOMB.
That is the warning sounded by the authors of the 1995 World
Population Data Sheet, newly released by the Washington-based
Population Reference Bureau (PRB). On the face of it, the gains
are encouraging: In the late 1960s, women in developing countries
averaged six children each. Today, the average is 3.5
children--4.0 if China is excluded. But PRB authors Carl Haub and
Machiko Yanagishita say that the "great demographic unknown" is
whether family planning and changes in the status of women will
work to "push fertility all the way down to the critical level of
two children per woman, or replacement level." Even if the
developing world maintains today's total fertility rate of 3.5
children per woman, by the 22nd century world population "would
reach an unimaginable 700 billion (from the present 5 billion) and
would continue to grow at a very rapid pace," Haub and Yanagishita
say. The total fertility rate in the developing world is more than
double that of the developed world--3.5 compared to 1.6. That
figure is most dramatic when applied to doubling times: at current
birth and death rates, for example, Ethiopia's population will
double in 22 years while Italy's will not double for 2,310 years.
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE, THE POPULATION DATA SHEET AUTHORS AGREE THAT
FAMILY PLANNING IS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE of controlling the
population explosion. But they say that there is no way of knowing
whether family planning will be accepted widely enough and soon
enough to fulfill its potential. "Raising both the status and the
educational level of women are often critical to a lower birth
rate," Haub and Yanagishita say, noting that today, 98 percent of
all population growth happens in the developing world. National
family planning programs are credited with bringing about
impressive reductions in total fertility rates. But now that those
programs have been proven effective, the PRB authors say that the
focus needs to shift to the longer term consequences of family
planning programs not working 100 percent. "So far, the population
explosion has been delayed, but it has in no way been avoided," the
authors caution, adding that: "This is a matter of simple math.
Even moderately high birth rates, if continued, will make
unrestrained world population growth a reality."
THE POPULATION DATA SHEET INCLUDES DEMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR ALL 185
UNITED NATIONS MEMBER STATES plus other geopolitical entities with
a population of at least 150,000. It also lists national areas,
population per square mile and capital cities separately. For each
entry, a demographic picture emerges from columns that itemize
total population, birth and death rates, infant mortality rate,
life expectancy and the percentage of married women using
contraception.
Copies of the 1995 World Population Data Sheet are available from:
Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520,
Washington, DC 20009-5728, USA. Phone: 202-483-1100.
(1995 World Population Data Sheet, May 1995, Population
Reference Bureau, Washington)
* * * * *
IN BRIEF . . .
. . . TUBERCULOSIS is now the leading killer of people infected
with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. Dr. Arata Kochi, director of
the World Health Organization's Global TB Program, recently warned
that "the HIV/TB dual epidemic is undermining efforts to control
TB." He said that tuberculosis will take a deadly toll as the
incidence of HIV rises in Asia. The virus is now spreading most
rapidly in Asia where TB infection is even more widespread than in
Africa. Almost one-third of HIV-positive people will be killed by
TB, and many people they are in contact with--including those who
are HIV-negative--will be infected with the lung disease, Dr. Kochi
said. Dr. Anthony Harries, a physician from Malawi, said that "the
co-epidemic complicates efforts to care for AIDS patients and to
identify and treat TB patients." He added that health workers are
facing increasing caseloads of patients with both HIV and TB, and
are hampered by shortages of manpower, funds, and appropriate
technology. TB germs are transmitted through the air, spreading
from person-to-person through coughing, sneezing or even talking.
(Press Release, 2 June 1995, World Health Organization, Geneva)
. . . GIRLS IN UGANDA show a dramatically higher incidence of
HIV-infection than boys in the same age group. According to
figures released recently by Kampala's AIDS Information Centre,
32.4 percent of girls aged 15 to 19 in the capital city test
positive for HIV, while only 3 percent of boys the same age tested
positive. A similar survey in the Rakai district in South West
Uganda--one of the worst affected areas--found similar results: 32
percent of girls aged 17- 20 were HIV-positive, as opposed to 4.5
percent of boys. The discrepancy is linked to girls' earlier
sexual maturity, the fact that girls often have older male sexual
partners, and the physiological vulnerability of girls and very
young women, whose immature genital tracts are thought to be more
susceptible to HIV. (WorldAIDS, March 1995, Panos)
. . . THE PHILIPPINES could become the first Asian country to lose
all of its forested land and tree-cover by the year 2000, according
to Kevin McGrath, resident representative in the Philippines for
the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). McGrath called
forest maintenance "a serious challenge" for the Philippines and
said that UNDP is working with the Philippine government to avert
a drastic deforestation crisis. According to UNDP, population
pressures and unsustainable logging practices have led to a
precipitous decline in tree-covered land in the Philippines, which
by some estimates has fallen from levels of about 60 to 70 percent
before the Second World War to only 15 percent today.
(Update, 5 June 1995, United Nations Development Program, New
York)
. . . CHINESE MALES of all ages now outnumber females in rural
areas by 30 million and demographers believe that China's "one
child family" birth-control policy is responsible. According to a
China-funded newspaper in Hong Kong, there are now 28 single men
between the ages of 25 and 49 for every single woman in the Chinese
countryside. The newspaper said it was quoting 1994 China-wide
census figures and 1993 random surveys in some provinces and
cities. (Nikkei Weekly, 10 April 1995, Tokyo)
. . . CONSERVING THE BLACK RHINOCEROS population--which has
plummeted from 65,000 to 3,000 since the early 1970s as a result of
widespread poaching--was the subject of a recent study paper for
London's Institute of Economic Affairs. Michael Sas-Rolfes argues
that rhinoceros' should be privately owned, that the horn trade
should be legalized, and that profits from regular trimmings of the
highly-prized horn--especially coveted in Asian medicine--should be
used for rhino conservation. Sas-Rolfes believes that placing the
rhinoceros population in the hands of individuals, companies, and
governments "small enough to encourage conservation" would better
protect the endangered animals. The South African economist claims
that under his plan, the 1977 international trade ban on rhino
products could be cautiously relaxed.
(Financial Times, 1 May 1995, London)
* * * * *
THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT HAS SUCCESSFULLY RELEGATED NGO FORUM '95,
the conference of non-governmental organizations that will parallel
the United Nations Fourth World Conference on Women in September,
to a backwater resort town far away from Tiananmen Square. Since
forcing the site relocation from a stadium complex in Beijing to
the small town of Huairou less than five months before the Forum's
August 30 opening date, the Chinese have made few concessions to
Forum '95 organizers. Several alternate sites in Beijing were
suggested by Forum officials, but Chinese authorities refused to
consider them, claiming they were already booked. The Chinese did
agree to bulldoze some old Huairou buildings and construct walkways
between various meeting locations. They also agreed to provide 50
square meters of space at a "satellite site" near the U.N.
conference, so that NGO delegates will have a place in Beijing to
organize their lobbying efforts. Outside China, the reason usually
cited for relocating the NGO Forum is the Chinese leadership's
gradual alarm at the prospect of thousands of outspoken,
independent women attending a conference in the heart of Beijing.
36,000 delegates are expected to attend NGO Forum '95 and
transporting participants back and forth between Beijing and
Huairou is expected to be a logistical nightmare.
(Globe and Mail, 15 June 1995, Beijing)
* * * * *
THE WIDENING GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR IS LITERALLY 'A MATTER OF
LIFE AND DEATH,' says Director-General Hiroshi Nakajima of the
World Health Organization (WHO). And the growing inequity is not
confined to the Third World, where the number of countries
classified as "least-developed" has risen to 47 in the past two
years. Nakajima explains that in many industrialized nations,
poverty is an increasing blight, though "hidden behind a veneer of
overall prosperity." He says that as the turn of the century
approaches, a wave of poverty like a medieval plague threatens much
of the world, endangering health advances achieved in the last
three decades. He assails the emphasis on the "trickle-down"
theory--which holds that an increase in national income
automatically results in social improvement. Nakajima says that
data for some industrialized countries shows that the death rate of
poor people rises in relation to the rich as the income gap widens.
Conversely, as the income gap narrows, life expectancy increases.
POVERTY IS 'THE WORLD'S DEADLIEST DISEASE,' CONTENDS NAKAJIMA IN
INTRODUCING THE 1995 WORLD HEALTH REPORT. More than a billion
people live in extreme poverty around the world, the report says.
And the widening gap is not just between rich and poor, but also
between the poor and the poorest, and between those who have access
to health care and those who do not. Nakajima cites the rising
incidence of cholera, tuberculosis and plague--all diseases linked
to poverty--and rues the decline in some countries of immunization
rates against lethal diseases. WHO's director-general concludes:
"Our efforts are dedicated toward charting a better, healthier
future for humanity; a future in which millions of children no
longer face death in infancy nor their mothers death in childbirth;
a future in which everyone has an equal chance of health. The
means exist; what are lacking are the commitment and resources to
apply them."
THIS YEAR'S 118-PAGE WORLD HEALTH REPORT ELABORATES on the theme of
"Bridging the Gap" with tables, charts, graphs and maps covering
virtually every country and territory around the world. Data are
included for the following basic indicators: death rate, life
expectancy, infant mortality, population, fertility rate, adult
literacy and health expenditure per capita. Overall, the report
paints a grim picture of the inequality which, for one-fifth of
Earth's population, creates extreme poverty that "wields its
destructive influence at every stage of human life, from the moment
of conception to the grave." In fact, the report ranks extreme
poverty as the world's major killer and cause of ill-health and
suffering. A sampling of the report's conclusions includes the
following facts:
* Life expectancy in one least-developed country is 43 years,
contrasted with 78 years in a high-ranking industrialized nation.
* Every year over 12 million Third World children under 5 years
old die, mostly from preventable causes.
* By the year 2000, over 5 million children will be infected by
HIV and another 5-10 million will be orphaned by the AIDS pandemic.
* Half the world's population still lacks regular access to
treatment of common diseases and to essential drugs.
* Ninety-nine percent of deaths from communicable diseases and
from maternal, perinatal and neonatal causes occur in the
developing world.
* More than 7,000 adults die each day from tuberculosis, and
there are over 1,000 new cases every hour of every day.
* Suicide rates among young people are rising more rapidly
worldwide than in all other age groups. For every successful
suicide in the developed world, 40 adolescents attempt to kill
themselves.
* Some 20 million women undergo unsafe abortions each year, and
70,000 die as a result.
* Dementia, particularly Alzheimer's disease, affects 22 million
people globally, including one in every five over 80 years of age.
For more information on World Health Report 1995 - Bridging the
Gaps, contact: Office of World Health Reporting, World Health
Organization, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. Fax: (41-22) 791 4870.
(World Health Report 1995, May 1995; World Health Magazine,
November/December 1994, World Health Organization, Geneva)
* * * * *
NEW POPULATION DATA FROM INDIA INDICATES THAT AVERAGE LIFE
EXPECTANCY HAS ALMOST DOUBLED in the past 40 years--from around 32
years in 1951 to over 60 years in 1992, while the literacy rate has
nearly tripled to 52 percent in the same period. According to
Indian government figures, the birth rate in 1993 had fallen to
28.5 per thousand, from 39.9 per thousand in 1951. The death rate
fell from 27.4 per thousand to 9.2 in the same period. Between
1971 and 1992, infant mortality rates dropped by half and the total
fertility rate fell from 5.2 children per woman to 3.6, according
to the demographic survey. Significant regional differences
appeared in some indicators, particularly literacy, which ranged
from a 1991 high of 90 percent for the Indian State of Kerala to a
low of 38.5 percent in Rajasthan. Infant mortality was also much
lower in Kerala State--at 13 per thousand--than both the
country-wide average of 74 per thousand and the highs of 106 and
110 per thousand in Madhya Pradesh and Orissa. Kerala also had the
highest life expectancy, 69.5 years, and the lowest birth rate,
17.3 per thousand.
(Population Headliners, May 1995, Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok)
* * * * *
WORK ON THE CONTROVERSIAL THREE GORGES DAM PROJECT IN CHINA
BEGAN LAST DECEMBER. Supporters of what will be the world's
largest dam say it will not only provide enough hydroelectric power
to supply 60 cities the size of San Francisco, but they say it will
also improve irrigation and navigation for the surrounding areas,
and control flooding. But critics cite a long list of concerns
about the dam, including: seismic instability in the area; covering
up 1600 industrial plants, 140 towns, 4,500 villages, 30,000
hectares of rich soil, and historic architectural structures; and
the need to relocate more than one million people. Located on the
Yangtze river, the new dam will span 1.6 kilometers and stand 185
meters high. Inaugurated in December by Chinese Premier Li Peng
and Vice- President Zou Jiahua, the Three Gorges Hydro-electric
Project is projected to cost approximately US$23 billion, but many
say that this amount may ultimately triple.
CHINESE OFFICIALS ARE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE MASSIVE THREE GORGES
PROJECT. Premier Li promised that the dam would represent, "an
achievement for this era, benefits for a thousand autumns." Other
supporters maintain that the dam will facilitate navigation to
inland cities like Chongqing, which "boasts a strong industrial
foundation, but has been held back by its poor transport links,"
reports The South China Morning Post. Another projected benefit of
the dam is alleviating the flooding that has plagued the Yangtze
Valley for centuries. And Tang Zhangjin, an official of the
project, claims that the dam will improve tourism in this already
well-known area. He says that many temples presently situated on
mountain tops will be more accessible to tourists when they are
instead located on islands in the giant lake that will form behind
the dam. Tang adds that the Chinese will try to reconstruct relics
that the water covers. Another Three Gorges official claims that
the dam will improve the region's climate by raising the average
temperature by one degree in the winter and lowering it by one
degree in the summer.
BUT OPPONENTS ARE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE DAM'S SUPPOSED BENEFITS.
Environmentalists have been some of the greatest opponents of the
project, saying that it will have, "unforeseeable consequences."
Besides the risk of an earthquake occurring in the area,
environmentalists say that the long-term build-up of silt could
actually trigger an earthquake. Opponents of the Three Gorges
project also cite the complex difficulties of relocating over a
million people. At the grass roots level, peasants who are being
forced to move have reportedly shown resistance by stealing
dam-site property, despite a reportedly generous compensation
package. Finances are also a major concern. The project's costs
keep rising even as China is having difficulty finding funding.
The government is using a 2 percent tax on electricity as well as
revenue from already existing plants, but international funds will
also be needed. But even the World Bank has become reluctant to
fund the controversial project. Further, some reports indicate
that the economic benefits of the dam will not be distributed
evenly, adding that the colossal scale of the project and the
sacrifices required in the affected provinces may exacerbate
tensions between the dam's local regions and Beijing. Finally,
some critics say that the results of the Three Gorges Dam will not
fulfill the expectations of project supporters. The South China
Morning Post reports concerns that the dam will not be completed,
or that it will become another Great Wall which, "cost a fortune,
failed to serve its purpose and in the end became nothing more than
a tourist attraction."
(The South China Morning Post, 18 & 25 December 1994, Hong
Kong; The Globe and Mail, 21 December 1994, Beijing)
* * * * *
TWO RELATIVELY RECENT BOOKS THAT DENOUNCE CHINA'S THREE GORGES DAM
PROJECT provide further information about the dam and its potential
consequences. Yangtze! Yangtze! is a collection of essays,
interviews, observations and commentaries by politicians,
intellectuals, journalists, and scientists opposed to the project.
These are brought together by Dai Qing, a former journalist, secret
agent, and Communist Party member. After its original publication
in 1989, the book was banned and its author arrested and finally
exiled. The second book, Damning the Three Gorges, is a systematic
refutation of the project put together by researchers from Canada's
environmental organization, Probe International. The book is a
collection of essays which relate to key issues about Three Gorges
and propose alternative solutions. Yangtze! Yangtze! by Dai Qing,
edited by Patricia Adams and John Thibodeau, numbers 295pp. and was
published by Earthscan in 1994. Cost: US$14.95. ISBN:
1-85383-187-5. Damning The Three Gorges: What Dam Builders Don't
Want You to Know, edited by Margaret Barber and Grainne Ryder, was
published by Earthscan in 1993, costs $13.95 and has 183pp. ISBN:
1-85385-186-7.
* * * * *
SO-CALLED 'ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES' ARE A RELATIVELY NEW PHENOMENON
but already their number is estimated at up to 25 million and is
likely to rise. Researchers believe the number of environmental
refugees has grown more rapidly than any other refugee category.
Forced or attracted from increasingly barren land, such migrants
pose severe ecological, social and political problems both
internally and across international borders. The most serious
environmental refugee movement was propelled by the Sahelian
drought of the early 1980s. In Mauritania alone, 250,000
people--or 20 percent of the nation's population--surged from the
blighted rural land into urban centers. In Burkina Faso, a million
people--or one sixth of the population--have flooded into cities in
recent years. And the Cote d'Ivoire has become the nervous host to
Sahelian refugees, who now make up one-fifth of its total
population.
ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES ARE USUALLY DIVIDED INTO THREE CATEGORIES:
those temporarily displaced, for example, by earthquakes or
cyclones; those permanently displaced by such irreversible habitat
changes as dams and resulting man-made lakes; and those who migrate
in search of a better life than their deteriorating habitat can
provide. What triggers such mass population movements varies
widely. One cause is the mismanagement of natural resources,
including too much farming, grazing and tree-cutting. And an
underlying factor is the strain of overpopulation, which increases
the competition for scarce arable land, fuelwood and water.
THE SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM OF ENVIRONMENTALLY DISPLACED PEOPLE
AROUND THE WORLD IS MADE MORE DIFFICULT by the reluctance of
governments and aid agencies to classify them as refugees. The
argument is that they are migrants seeking economic advantages and
not officially-recognized refugees fleeing persecution. Critics of
this policy contend that it is imperative to recognize the link
between environmental degradation and population movement. They
say that local non-governmental organizations should promote a
system of government accountability for environmental refugees.
Aid agencies, critics say, should be encouraged to tap indigenous
knowledge, which is often rich in ecological wisdom. And they say
that development workers should learn by listening to people who
have direct experience dealing with the environmental problems that
motivate people to move.
AN URGENT NEED TO RECOGNIZE AND HELP ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES WAS
STATED by delegates to an Oxford University conference on
development-induced displacement. One item cited by the conference
was a World Bank finding that up to 100 million people have been
involuntarily resettled over the past decade in the name of
"progress." 23 million have been displaced in India since 1950--up
to 2.1 million each year by hydro-electric dam projects. In
Africa, dams on the Volta (Ghana), Nile (Egypt), Zambezi (Zambia
and Zimbabwe) and Bendarna (Cote d'Ivoire) rivers have forced the
relocation of hundred of thousands of people, mostly farmers and
herders and some townspeople. In the Philippines, 13,000 people
were relocated when the town of Pantabangan was submerged by a
reservoir created by a dam built in 1971. And in China, water
projects have created over 10 million environmental refugees since
1950. Displacement is also caused by forestry, mining, park
development, land-use corridors and urban growth. The result is
usually impoverishment, including: unemployment, landlessness, food
insecurity, the erosion of health, and cultural stress.
TO LESSEN THE IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENT-INDUCED POPULATION
DISPLACEMENT, the conferees assembled from 26 countries proposed a
variety of approaches. They recommended that risks be anticipated
and countered in advance. Asserting that induced displacement will
inevitably continue, they called for balancing the benefits of safe
water supplies, irrigation, effective transport systems, or urban
growth with the costs and pains of resettlement. They also warned
against the dangers of excluding displaced people from the
decision-making process and ignoring the social, economic and
political costs in terms of social conflict. A top government
priority, the conferees said, should be to find alternatives to
development projects that displace people. On the brighter side,
the conferees said dialogues are emerging and project designers are
recognizing that those affected and the NGOs representing their
interests are extremely effective in making their views prevail.
(The Courier, March/April 1995,
Africa-Caribbean-Pacific-European Union, Brussels)
* * * * *
WHEN MEXICO COMPLAINS ABOUT CALIFORNIA'S DISCRIMINATORY IMMIGRATION
LAWS, IT'S THE POT CALLING THE KETTLE BLACK, Central American
migrant workers charge. California's Governor Pete Wilson has come
under fire from Mexico as well as from U.S. civil libertarians for
promoting legislation aimed at halting the flow of illegal--or
so-called "undocumented"--immigrants from Mexico. Said one
knowledgeable Central American: "Governor Wilson is saying that
they will prevent all the children of illegals from going to school
or from getting health care. The government here in Mexico is
doing the same to those from Guatemala." The Mexican town of
Tapachula, on the Guatemalan border, is a staging area for Central
American migrants from Honduras, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El
Salvador as well as Guatemala. The migrants hope to better their
lives through the higher wages paid in Mexico--the region's most
economically developed country.
MEXICAN COFFEE FARMS PAY TWICE AS MUCH AS THOSE IN GUATEMALA, and
shark fishermen make five times as much in Mexico. The dream of
many migrants is eventually to work their way northward into the
United States, where wages are even higher. But as under
California's controversial Proposition 187, Mexico's alien-worker
permits do not give migrants' children the right to attend public
school. And while migrants are allowed to use public health
services, they are never told about the benefit, and so return to
their home country when their children fall ill. The immigrants
are also subject to mistreatment and prejudice, and are often
victims of robbery and the theft of wages. Central Americans fill
some of the lowest job slots in the Mexican border area, working
for longer hours and bottom-level wages: from US$4.40 to $7.35 a
day. The jobs that migrants fill in the southern Mexico border
state of Chiapas are principally in agriculture, especially on
coffee and banana plantations. They are also employed in shark
fishing, urban construction and domestic service. Nevertheless, a
university sociologist said, if the immigration from Central
America were halted, Mexican industry "would go bankrupt." And a
Mexican employer, expressing a preference for Central American
workers, said there are "a lot of lazy people" among the Mexicans,
while the immigrants "work very hard." (El Financiero
International, 21-27 November 1994, Mexico City)
* * * * *