UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
"ICPD 94", No. 16
June 1994
Newsletter of the International Conference on Population and
Development
Cairo, Egypt, 5-13 September 1994
STUDY PROJECTS DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF AIDS IN AFRICA
A recently issued United Nations study, "AIDS and the Demography of
Africa", shows that population growth rates will remain high for
each country in sub-Saharan Africa despite a devastating death toll
from AIDS.
For the first time, the Population Division of the UN
Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis
(DESIPA) incorporated the potential demographic impact of AIDS in
its biennial population estimates and projections for 15 countries
of sub-Saharan Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central
African Republic, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique,
Rwanda, United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, Zambia and
Zimbabwe.
Nine million additional deaths are projected in the 15
countries by the year 2005 because of the AIDS pandemic; 61 per
cent of these will occur in Uganda, Zaire, Tanzania and Zambia.
>From 2000 to 2005, the region's average life expectancy will be
51.2 years, 6.5 years lower than what would be expected in the
absence of AIDS; in Uganda, life expectancy will be just 42.9, 11.1
years lower than that expected in the absence of AIDS and 4.5 years
lower than the average life span in 1975-1980.
Those numbers show that, unlike recent experience, mortality
is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, the largest
mortality impacts of AIDS are in the prime working and family-care
years. Enormous economic and social strains could result. The size
and productivity of countries' industrial and rural labour forces
may be affected, undermining vital industries and agricultural
production on a continent beset by chronic food and caloric
shortages. Patterns of caregiving for both children and the elderly
are also likely to be severely tested.
Despite the staggering AIDS death toll, substantial population
increases are projected for the 15 countries due to continued high
fertility rates, even in the four countries where the epidemic is
most severe. The region's total population in 2005 is projected to
be 297.9 million, more than double the 138.4 million persons in
1980. This figure, however, will be nearly 12.4 million (or 4 per
cent) less than would be expected in the absence of AIDS.
"AIDS and the Demography of Africa" (Sales No. E.94.XIII.11)
may be obtained for $30 from the Sales Section, United Nations, New
York or Geneva; or by writing to the Director, Population Division,
DESIPA, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA.
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For printed or electronic copies of the "ICPD 94" newsletter, in
English, French or Spanish, or further information, please
contact:
ICPD Secretariat 220 E. 42nd Street, 22nd floor
New York, N.Y. 10017, USA
Tel: (212) 297-5244/5245
Media contact: (212) 297-5023/5030 or 5279
Fax: (212) 297-5250
E-mail: ryanw@unfpa.org or icpd@igc.apc.org
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