UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
|
| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
"ICPD 94"
March 1994
Number 13
Newsletter of the International Conference on Population and
Development
Cairo, Egypt, 5-13 September 1994
EXPERTS DEBATE PROSPECTS FOR WORLD FOOD SUPPLY
Growth in the world's food supply will keep pace with population
growth for some time to come, according to experts who met in
Washington last month. Nevertheless, they warned, in some regions
problems will persist in getting food to those who need it most.
From 14 to 16 February, some 30 experts in the field of
population and food from all over the world gathered at the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington,
D.C., for the Round Table on Population and Food in the Early 21st
Century: Meeting Future Food Needs of an Increasing World
Population. The meeting was organized by the Rockefeller Foundation
and IFPRI, in cooperation with the United Nations Population Fund
(UNFPA), as part of the ICPD preparatory process.
The round table was convened to allow experts to discuss the
current and future global food situation, as well as the regional
outlooks, in light of current and projected population growth
rates, new agro-technologies, and environmental factors.
In an opening address, Dr. Nafis Sadik, UNFPA Executive
Director and Secretary-General of ICPD, noted that family income,
family size and social status were key determinants of food self-
sufficiency. "In the community, women and girls are much more
likely to be poor, and in the family they are far more likely to be
undernourished than men or boys," she pointed out. "There is
nothing inevitable about food shortages, particularly food
shortages within the same family," she stated. "They can be
eliminated; and for the sake of the future they must be
eliminated."
Some 20 papers were presented, on topics ranging from
technological advances to the influence of global warming on food
production. The main discussion centred around three global and
regional food supply/demand projection studies up to the year 2010,
prepared by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO), the World Bank and IFPRI. Despite differences in methodology
and food products covered, the studies came to similar conclusions,
namely that growth in world food supply is likely to keep pace with
growth in food demand. This is so because the rates of population
growth will continue to slow down and grain yields will continue to
grow, albeit more slowly than in recent years.
According to the experts, there is and will be enough food to
feed the world's population, but all three studies acknowledge that
these global projections, as the IFPRI study put it, "conceal
emerging problems at regional and country level, which show that
there will continue to be problems in getting food to those people
who need it the most". The experts warned that there will be
significant regional problems in food supply in the near future,
particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and to a lesser extent in South
Asia.
The round table also focused on selected issues affecting
future food supplies, such as the availability of land and water,
the contributions of both existing and new technologies, and the
impact of climate change. No major breakthroughs in biotechnology
(a new "green revolution") are to be expected in the short or
medium term, the experts predicted. But this need not be a problem,
they added, if the use of the best existing agricultural
technologies can be further expanded throughout the developing
world.
Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute, however, raised
serious doubts about the possibility of increasing agricultural
output given the ongoing loss of agricultural land and problems
affecting water supply in many parts of the world.
The experts disagreed on whether the recently concluded round
of talks on the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) would
have a significant impact on world food production. There was also
disagreement over the likely effects of predicted global climate
change. But all were concerned about the decreasing funding of
agricultural research and the insufficiency of investments in the
agricultural sector by donors and Governments.
Based on the outcomes of the round table, IFPRI will publish
a set of recommendations and a statement on population and food to
be presented at PrepCom III.
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For printed or electronic copies of the "ICPD 94" newsletter, in
English, French or Spanish, or further information, please contact:
ICPD Secretariat 220 E. 42nd Street, 22nd floor
New York, N.Y. 10017, USA
Tel: (212) 297-5244/5245
Media contact: (212) 297-5023/5030 or 5279
Fax: (212) 297-5250
E-mail: ryanw@unfpa.org or icpd@igc.apc.org
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