UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
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The Future is Urban One of the most dramatic demographic issues which will confront delegates to the International Conference on Population and Development in 1994 is the worldwide phenomenon of rapid urbanization. Between 1990 and 1995, 321 million additional persons will need to be accommodated within the world's urban areas. In developing countries, most migrants head for towns and cities. Urban areas swell not only as a result of their own population increases, but from the overflow of people from rural areas. Migration has accounted for much of population change. The United Nations estimated, on the basis of census data from the 1960s and 1970s, that about a third of the rural population increase in Africa and Asia, and 58 per cent in Latin America, was lost to migration or to reclassification of rural settlements as urban. Urban areas owed much of their growth to immigration and to the swallowing of rural areas. Cities have traditionally been the heart of trade, science and culture. But wherever cities grew rapidly or passed a certain size threshold, there have been costs in crime. congestion and pollution. Modern towns and cities pose a challenge to environmental sustainability. They produce little or none of their own food, fuel or water, and use immense quantities of energy and raw materials for transport, communication, construction and production. They generate vast amounts of solid wastes and dangerous concentrations of air and water pollutants. The sheer pace of urban growth in developing countries has often outrun all attempts to provide housing, water, sanitation and roads, and produced few of the expected benefits. The growth rate of the urban population has been very high. In 1950, only 29 people in every 100 lived in cities. Urban areas in the world had a total of only 734 million inhabitants, and only two cities -- London and New York -- housed more than eight million people. By 1992, the world's urban population had more than trebled, to 2.4 billion, and 43 out of every 100 people lived in towns or cities. Today, there are 20 mega-cities with more than eight million people each. Fourteen of these are in the developing world, where in 1950 there were none. Developing countries, which in 1950 had only 39 per cent of the world's urban population, by 1990 had nearly 61 per cent The future looks even more urban. During the l990s no less than 72 per cent of the world's population increase is expected to take place in towns in cities -- 68 million people every year, equivalent to over eight extra cities the size of Moscow, Delhi, Paris or Lagos. Annual additions to world population are expected to peak in the l990s, but urban increments will keep on growing. In many developing countries, national policy in areas such as job creation, education, wage subsidies, housing policy and tax incentives have unduly increased the attractiveness of urban areas to potential rural migrants. "Urban-biased" policies have also contributed to high rates of urbanization in much of the developing world. Internal migration and urbanization will be the subject of the Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution and Migration, which will be held from 18 to 22 January 1993 in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. The group will make recommendations regarding policies aimed at maximizing the positive effects of migration on development and reducing its detrimental effects. The Bolivia meeting will be the last in the series of expert group meetings convened as part of the preparatory process for the International Conference on Population and Development, 1994.