UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
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| UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, with support from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) |
|
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The electronic preparation of this document has been done by the
Population Information Network(POPIN) of the United Nations Population
Division in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme
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AS WRITTEN 8 September 1994
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (IGO)
Mr. Chairman, Distinguished Guests Ladies and Gentlemen, Good
morning.
The importance of adequate quantities of food at prices that
people can afford is a critical determinant of the population growth,
particularly among the poor. IFPRI estimates that some 600 to 700
million people in the developing countries do not have access to enough
food for healthy, productive lives. Over 1.1 billion people live in
poverty -- abject and persistent poverty -- that is in households that
earn less that a dollar a day. Increasing the incomes of poor people to
enable them to gain access to food and improve their nutrition is
necessary to bring down fertility rates among the poor.
What are the likely consequences for global and regional food
supply and demand?
The demand for food is estimated to increase by 2.4 percent per
year during next decade from the year 2000-2010. About 90 percent of
the increase in demand will be due to increase in population, with the
remaining 10 percent from increases in income and changes in consumption
patterns. The estimates are based on the assumption that population
will grow at 2.0 percent during years 1990-2000 and 1.7 percent from
2000 to 2010, while per capita income growth is projected at 3.4 percent
per year during the 20 year from 1990- 2010. the total demand for food
incorporates the indirect demand for feed purposes. The share of which
is expected to increase overtime as demand for livestock products rises
with income growth and urbanization in most countries.
For several decades now, the rate of growth in food production 2/
has exceeded the rate of growth in population for the world as a whole.
With the exception of sub-saharan Africa, this has also been the case
for developing countries as a group. from the late 1960s until the mid
1980, average per capita consumption has remained the same or increased
in all developing regions as well as in the world as a whole. However,
recent indications are that per capita food production is declining, and
that 1984 may have been the peak year. There are two disturbing
trends here: One relates to the declines in the per capita food
production and the other to the rate of growth in cereal yields.
The key to food production in developing countries lies in a
sustained increase in crop yields. Only 20 - 25 percent of the increase
in production is expected to come from expansion of land under
cultivation; the rest from increases in yields. In the longer term
futures, water, not land will be the limiting factor to increases in
food production.
Required yield increases means an investment in adaptive research,
education, extension, and training of farmers along with investment in
rural infrastructure including roads, transportation, and irrigation.
Appropriate macro and sectoral policies, must provide incentives for
adoption, adaptation, and diffusion of technology.
What will happen to per capita food production and consumption in
the future will also depend on long term environmental consequences such
as the quality and quantity of land and water, soil erosion, and loss of
biodiversity.
Most of the poor in the developing world are in the rural areas,
where they subsist on agriculture and agricultural-related nonfarm
activities. For countries with a heavy dependence on agriculture as a
source of employment and income, the key of overall growth lies in rapid
agricultural growth, which through intersectoral linkages in consumption
and production, leads to overall economic growth, expansion of
employment, and reduction in poverty. Agricultural growth, therefore,
is not only needed to supply basic foods, but also to generate
employment and income for the poor. Many of the developing world's poor
live in marginal areas such as hillsides or forest margins, where
prospects for increasing productivity in food and agriculture to earn
even a minimum level of living are limited. research on appropriate
technology for marginal areas must be vigorously pursued, along with
efforts to attain sustainable food and agricultural production through
improved resources management and institutional reforms such as property
rights.
In spite of continues increases in yields and in food production,
demand for food will exceed supply in developing countries. Food
imports of developing countries will double by the year 2010. In order
to pay for the increase in imports, developing countries will require
access to new and expanding markets for their exports in both developed
and developing countries, through concerted efforts at liberalization of
both global and regional trade.
Notes
1. Paper prepared for the International Conference on Population and
Development to be held at Cairo, Egypt, September 5-13, 1994. 2. Food
in this context is defined as basic cereals (wheat, rice, maize, and
other coarse grains. It does not include roots and tubers, which are
particularly relevant for Africa. Nor does it include sugar, pulses,
oilseeds, and fruits and vegetables. 3. Consumption of cereals
includes both direct consumption (by humans as food) and indirect
consumption (by livestock as feed).